Most Popular
1. THE INFLATION MONSTER is Forecasting RECESSION - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Why APPLE Could CRASH the Stock Market! - Nadeem_Walayat
3.The Stocks Stealth BEAR Market - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Inflation, Commodities and Interest Rates : Paradigm Shifts in Macrotrends - Rambus_Chartology
5.Stock Market in the Eye of the Storm, Visualising AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI Tech Stocks Earnings BloodBath Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
7.PPT HALTS STOCK MARKET CRASH ahead of Fed May Interest Rate Hike Meeting - Nadeem_Walayat
8.50 Small Cap Growth Stocks Analysis to CAPITALISE on the Stock Market Inflation -Nadeem_Walayat
9.WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO INVEST IN STOCKS AND HOUSING MARKET - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Apple and Microsoft Nuts Are About to CRACK and Send Stock Market Sharply Lower - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
UK Housing Market Analysis, Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025 - Part 2 - 30th June 22
Stock Market Turning the Screws - 30th June 22
How to Ignore Stocks (and why you should) - 30th June 22
Top Tips For Getting The Correct Insurance Option For Your Needs - 30th June 22
Central Banks Plan To Buy More Gold In 2022 - 30th June 22
AI Tech Stock PORTFOLIO NAME OF THE GAME - 29th June 22
Rebounding Crude Oil Gets Far Away from the Bearish Side - 29th June 22
UK House Prices - Lets Get Jiggy With UK INTEREST RATES - 28th June 22
GOLD STOCKS ARE WORSE THAN GOLD - 28th June 22
This “Bizarre” Chart is Wrecking the Stock Market - 28th June 22
Recession Question Answered - 28th June 22
Technical Analysis: Why You Should Expect a Popularity Surge - 28th June 22
Have US Bonds Bottomed? - 27th June 22
Gold Junior Miners: A Bearish Push Is Coming to Move Them Lower - 27th June 22
Stock Market Watching Out - 27th June 22
The NEXT BIG EMPIRE WILL BE..... CANZUK - 25th June 22
Who (or What) Is Really in Charge of Bitcoin's Price Swings? - 25th June 22
Crude Oil Price Forecast - Trend Breaks Downward – Rejecting The $120 Level - 25th June 22
Everyone and their Grandma is Expecting a Big Stocks Bear Market Rally - 23rd June 22
The Fed’s Hawkish Bite Left Its Mark on the S&P 500 Stocks - 23rd June 22
No Dodging the Stock Market Bullet - 23rd June 22
How To Set Up A Business To Better Manage In The Free Market - 23rd June 22
Why Are Precious Metals Considered A Good Investment? Find Out Here - 23rd June 22
UK House Prices and the Inflation Mega-trend - 22nd June 22
Sportsbook Betting Reviews: How to Choose a Sportsbook- 22nd June 22
Looking to buy Cannabis Stocks? - 22nd June 22
UK House Prices Momentum Forecast - 21st June 22
The Fed is Incompetent - Beware the Dancing Market Puppet - 21st June 22
US Economy Headed for a Hard Landing - 21st June 22
How to Invest in EU - New Opportunities Uncovered - 21st June 22
How To Protect Your Assets During Inflation - 21st June 22

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Roaring Comeback of Reflation and Commodities

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021 Jul 05, 2021 - 01:12 PM GMT

By: Monica_Kingsley

Stock-Markets

S&P 500 broadening leadership and fresh reflationary ATHs are here – the FOMC „tightening“ hit notwithstanding. Energy, financials and industrials I discussed yesterday and before, were among the leaders, with tech not staying far behind. Crucially, the tech breadth was also improving – such rotations are the stock bull market‘s health. Neither the VIX nor the put/call ratio are arguing. The sentiment going into today‘s non-farm payrolls, remains constructive, and unlikely to result in reconstruction of the Fed tightening bets. Such was my real-time Twitter interpretation.

Credit markets remained constructive, and risk-on this time – that‘s in line with value upswing, accompanied by the Treasury yields‘ inability to retreat further. Near the top of its recent range, the 10-year Treasury yield is trading within the summer bond market calm atmosphere, and so are the beaten down inflation expectations at a time when:

(…) the dollar is catching a strong bid. We‘re still in a reflation, in the reopening trades stage – one where inflation expectations have been (unduly) hammered down while inflation hasn‘t taken a corresponding turn. Notably, commodities haven‘t been derailed in the least, so pay no attention to lumber – the real assets‘ world is much richer and profitable.



Remember the big picture – fiscal stimulus very much on, monetary accomodation aggressive, no worries about the economic expansion slowing down. Pickup in economic activity associated with inventories replenishment is sure to be kicking reliably on. Open long profits in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq can keep growing!

Precious metals are waking up from their slumber, not meaningfully led higher by the miners yet, but base building and peeking higher. Yesterday‘s thoughts apply for days and weeks to come:

(…) stabilized post FOMC, as the real rates effect and underestimated inflation is working in their favor. Coupled with commodities on fire, more than partially suspect Fed tightening and tapering promises, silver is the metal that would do better on the rebound after the smackdown. And it did yesterday.

Crude oil was catapulted higher on the Saudia Arabia – Russia negotiation speculation, but the production increase is the figure to watch today. Below 500,000 barrels per day, it‘s expected to be $WTIC bullish, but a bigger figure shouldn‘t be surprising. The $76 - $77 area in oil looks tough to crack this week, so taking respectable oil profits off the table early yesterday, was a good move. Regardless of the oil stocks strength, a temporary, volatile (countertrend) move shouldn‘t surprise today.

Crypto bears are still probing lower values in Bitcoin and Ethereum, and the short-term balance of forces appears flipping into their favor - Ethereum is getting hit comparatively more.

Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook



S&P 500 is going higher, with tech marginally contributing to the advance.

Credit Markets

  1. Credit markets performance was clearly risk-on yesterday, but the time for quality debt instruments to play a little catch up (in the corporate space), looks approaching.

Technology and Value



The anticipated value upswing extended gains yesterday, bringing it almost within spitting distance of prior highs. At the same time, tech scored gains too.

Gold, Silver and Miners



Gold rebounded even though miners didn‘t confirm – as said yesterday, the yield-inflation spread is getting too out of whack here, let alone the mispriced inflation expectations.



Silver and copper declined yesterday, but their recent consolidation patterns haven‘t been broken – upswing continuation remains likely here.

Crude Oil



Crude oil remains strong, but vulnerable to today‘s headline risk.

Summary

S&P 500 keeps trading near its highs, with a bullish bias, characterized by sectoral rotations and improving market breadth including in Nasdaq.

Gold and silver bulls are getting on the move, as the depressed nominal yields are helping attract buying interest – real rates at work.

Crude oil is momentarily vulnerable, but its strongly bullish chart isn‘t in danger of being derailed in the still solidly expanding real economy across the world.

Bitcoin and Ethereum bulls are again on the short-term defensive, but the weekly charts posture isn‘t yet in jeopardy. The bulls though are losing a tactical advantage.

Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for both Stock Trading Signals and Gold Trading Signals.

Thank you,

Monica Kingsley

Stock Trading Signals

Gold Trading Signals

www.monicakingsley.co
mk@monicakingsley.co

* * * * *

All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in