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Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast for 2023

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023 Dec 28, 2022 - 06:48 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat


The character of this bear market has been changing since the June low, first came the break above 33.3k into the August FOMO peak. and then came the decline to 28.7k that whilst a new bear market low was weak in trend channel terms.

so what is going on?

ACCUMULATION is what's going on, Accumulating since the June low. It should be fairly obvious that there is a lot of buying gone on and market manipulation so as to allow it to happen. It's as though the wolfs of wall street are leading the retail investor lambs to slaughter as the retail crowd are dealt hammer blows in either direction aimed at fleecing them of their wealth.

The smart money is accumulating! All whilst MSM and the blogosfear literally paint a perpetual picture of DOOM and FEAR that they STILL sustain despite what we witnessed earlier this week! INVESTORS have been conditioned to expect the likes of S&P 3200 as a done deal, when the reality is NOTHING is a done deal!

Furthermore even thought the purpose of this analysis is to conclude in a Dow trend forecast, I consider the indices to be a red herring, as it's all about the stocks! Many great stocks are trading at huge discounts to the indices for instance Qualcom on a PE of 10! AMD 17, TSMC 14, AMAT 11, Micron 6, Lam Research 12 and so on. This is what investing is all about, identifying good stocks and accumulating them when they are cheap, the indices are a side show, but they remain the focus of most.

Having scoured this analysis a dozen times what sticks out the most in terms of weighting are

1. that valuations HAVE moderated and will continue to do so. So gone are the ridiculous P/E's of late 2021.

2. A recession is brewing, due to hit the US during the 2nd half of 2023 in advance of which the Fed will have completed it's rate hikes to probably well below the markets worst expectations i.e. they may not even make it to 4%.

3. This is not really a bear market, to me it does not feel like a bear market. Where is the PANIC? Okay so the uK did panic, but the decline in the indices has been orderly. The swings are orderly, muted even as though engineered, this is evident by the failure of the VIX to spike instead unnaturally has remained range bound.

4. Bond markets have done their worst and look like they are bottoming..

5. Seasonal analysis and the Presidential election cycle are painting a compelling picture for a strong 2023. After all a strong down year tends to be followed by a strong up year.

Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast September 2022 to December 2023

This article is an excerpt from my extensive analysis that concludes in detailed stock market trend forecast into the end of 2023 Stocks Bear Market Max PAIN - Trend Forecast Analysis to Dec 2023 - Part1 was was first made available to patrons who support my work.So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. Lock it in now as $4 per month as this rises to $5 per month in the new year.

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By Nadeem Walayat

Copyright © 2005-2022 (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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