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As Geopolitical Fires Obscure Commodities' Path

Commodities / Commodities Trading Oct 20, 2023 - 11:13 PM GMT



Crisis, crisis everywhere. But objective, free from the noise of the news, forecasting of commodity prices starts here, with our free Special Report ($155 value).

The geopolitical landscape is wracked. War in Ukraine, humanitarian crisis in Syria, and now, what Vox Media on October 15 called the "worst conflict in decades" between Israel and Hamas. For mainstream analysts who use news as the main predictor of price trends, the escalating tensions have "cast a shadow of uncertainty over global financial markets." (Oct. 11 Moneycontrol)

But for Elliott wave analysts, times of heightened external conflict often produce the clearest Elliott wave patterns of market psychology on price charts, especially for the most volatile of markets -- commodities. It is the subject of EWI's newest educational resource, "Think Like an Elliottician: 5 Insights to Help You Manage Risk & Maximize Opportunity in Commodities," offered for a limited time to all Club EWI members free.

Risk management amidst global unrest? YES!

In this report, you'll discover several real-world examples of Elliott wave analysis catching major market turns during the fraught economic and political backdrop of the Covid pandemic. Yes, even when that analysis ran counter to the "fundamental" models espoused by Wall Street!

From the "5 insights to Help You Manage Risk & Maximize Opportunities" report:

"The paradox is these 'fundamentals' are supposed to illuminate the trajectory of market trends, especially commodities. But today, there are millions of investors in hundreds of exchanges with events moving a-mile-a-digital-microsecond. Trying to identify a single catalyzing event among the sea of news is like trying to catch a flea with a butterfly net."

One example featured in the report is the 2020 comeback in cotton prices, excerpted here:

"In March and April of 2020, cotton prices circled the drain of a decade low, having experienced one of the largest year-to-date decreases since 'the beginning of the century.' (March 24, 2020,

"But in our May 2020 Monthly Commodity Junctures, we focused instead on the Elliott wave picture and saw the multi-year sell-off from the 2011 peak as nearly complete. From Commodity Junctures:

The downside is limited; we're probably 90-95% complete so I'm not looking for significantly lower levels.

At that point, we're going to be looking at potentially a very nice opportunity to the upside as we see cotton prices begin to double over the next few months if not years."

From there, the "5 Insights to Help You Manage Risk" report shows you how cotton defied the bearish "fundamental" script at the start of the pandemic on its way to becoming one of the best-performing commodities over the next two years.

From a "fundamental" perspective, the pandemic was widely expected to set a global, commodity bear market in motion. Our "5 Insights to Help You Manage Risk" report shows how commodities had a different agenda: You'll see how (and why) several markets including cotton and the bellwether Bloomberg Commodity Index embarked on a powerful bull run -- while others, like lumber, came crashing down.

Today, political unrest has stepped into the pandemic's place as the "fundamental" du jour responsible for determining the fate of commodities. This is a dead end, as these recent news items regarding the Israel-Hamas conflict and crude oil show:

"Oil Will Rise to $150 on Escalation of Conflict, Energy Analyst Says" -- Oct. 16 Bloomberg

-- VERSUS --

"Oil falls over 2% after Saudi pledge; investors keep wary eye on Israel" -- Oct. 16 Reuters

In times of extreme uncertainty, Elliott wave analysis casts not a shadow, but a light into the future of commodities.

And right now, all free Club EWI members have instant access to that light with the complete, "5 Insights to Help You Manage Risk & Maximize Opportunity in Commodities" report -- a $155 value, yours FREE with a Club EWI password.

Not a free Club EWI member yet? Get your free password now to join the international community of fellow Elliott wave fans -- and have the full Special Report on your screen in seconds.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline As Geopolitical Fires Obscure Commodities' Path, This FREE Report Illuminates It!. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

© 2005-2022 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

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