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How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Trend Forecasts for 2024 and 2025

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024 May 21, 2024 - 03:33 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

Folk ask when will the S&P index correct? This is the problem when investors stare at the S&P they MISS the corrections in key target stocks! Google fell to $130. down 15% from it's high as I pointed out at the time as I accumulated more that it would likely soon reverse higher to target $160+, and then there is TESLA that traded down to a DEEP 47% deviation from it's $299 bull market high, with a dozen more opps to accumulate into, the likes of Redfin, Flex, Apple, ALB, BHP, CCJ, DIODE, GFS, Baidu, BDEV, Corsair, Unity and so on all whilst most remained focus on the S&O.... I keep saying to forget about the indices and focus on the individual target stocks but folk keep making the same mistake of waiting for the S&P to move before they decide to act. The S&P is just a cap weighted average, it does not reflect what most target stocks are doing and thus opps to buy and sell get missed by staring at the S&P nothing burger. The S&P should be treated as a stand alone market to trade or invest in..


Stock Market trend forecast for 2024 is for the S&P to target a trend to 5376 by the end of the year, along with to expect upto 3 corrections with target swing lows in March, June and October.

S&P Stock Market Analysis, Detailed Trend Forecast Jan to Dec 2024

S&P 5149, index that is the focus of most is showing relative strength against the trend forecast despite many target stocks having experienced deep corrections i.e. Google 15%, Tesla 47%. which implies -

1. That the S&P looks set to surprise to the upside by trending to well beyond the target of 5376 to likely see a year high above 5600.

2. That the failure for a correction to materialise increases the probability for the subsequent two corrections i.e. last year there were 2 corrections, so the highest probability was to expect at least 2 corrections this year with a third correction being more probable than not and given that last year the June correction failed to materialise then this year implied either March or October could fail to materialise, well now we know which correction failed materialise.

3, Corrections being the operative word, remember we are in a BULL MARKET where last years two deep corrections in percentage terms spoiled us to some degree i.e. conditioned us to expect corrections of similar magnitude going forward.

The S&P's strength going into Mid March is in stark contrast to 2 months ago (Mid January) when many were panicking in the wake of the Church of the Almanac Trifecta nothing burger (Stock Market Election Year Five Nights at Freddy's ), the January dip triggering much fear.

In terms for the immediate prospects, the S&P is very over extended both in terms of price and time, but it is NOT correcting, and so it could weakly continue snaking higher into early May which would chime well for Sell in May and go Away which tends to fail more often then not, i.e. it failed for 2023 and the 2022 bear market, AND for 2021 and 2020! That's four years in a row when the Sell in May and Go Away mantra FAILED to deliver! So four failures in a row should increase the probability for a hit thus year, especially as the INDEX failed to correct in it's Feb to March window and so is setting the scene for a correction during May and June.

(Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com)

Extrapolating the relative strength further out then preliminary analysis suggests that the S&P could blast through 6000 to trade to above 6100 before the end of next year. So all whilst most fear investing because a big drop could just be around the corner what they will actually witness is a relentless 2 year bull market ahead of them.

Swings Analysis

S&P swing topped at 5189 on 8th March, up 64 days from the 4th Jan swing low which suggests to expect short sharp minor down swing into late March, targeting 5040 before the next swing higher into early May to 5300+ for a more significant correction. during May and June. How deep? Depends on where the S&P tops out i.e. if the last high of 5189 manages to hold then I would expect the correction to target 4800 for an approx 7% correction, if from a 5300 top then targets a 7% drop to 4930 during May-June.

Bottom line we are in a bull market and in a bull market stock prices tend to go up, thus if you see a deviation from the high in target stocks. don't over think things because such price action is living in borrowed time as we saw with Google which I pointed out at the time that Google had corrected 14% down to $130, so even if the S&P did correct its more probable than not that Google will be higher than where it is now given that it has already corrected.

This article is an excerpt of my recent extensive analysis - Stock Market, Interest Rates, Crypto's and the Inflation Red Pill which was first made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before next rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Contents

Stock Market Trend Forecast
Swings Analysis
AI Stocks Portfolio
TESLA
Why US Interest Rates are a Nothing Burger
Stocks Bull Market Smoking Gun
Time to take the RED Pill
Crypto Correction
Bitcoin Trend Forecast
Bull Market Tops
Crypto's Exit Strategy
Coinbase MSTR 2.0
UK Tax Year End To do list
So much for the Rise of China Narrative

Latest analysis - AI Will Turn Everyone Into Gamblers! The Greatest Wealth Transfer In History is Coming...

CONTENTS
Stock Market Inverted Seasonal Trend
China NEW STOCKS BULL MARKET!
Hyper Sensitive Markets as AI Disrupts Everything, Including Itself!
Learn How to Accumulate and Distribute
Beat FOMO and FUD with EGF Direction of Travel
MEDIFAST - Disrupted by Weight Loss Drugs
Counting Down to Nvidia Earnings
AI Stocks Portfolio Spreadsheet
RECESSION 2026?
Stocks Portfolio For A Recession of Sorts
AI Will Make Everyone Poor!
SPECULATING!
The Future of Mankind - You are Being Sold a Lie!
Universal Basic Slave Income is Coming....
Fake Full Employment
Billionaire Nazis are in Charge!
How to Get Rich University
They Want Your House!
The Greatest Wealth Transfer IN History
UK House Prices
Bitcoin Preparing for Next Leg Higher
BTC Where Next?
Bull Market Tops

And gain access to my exclusive to patron's only content such as the How to Really Get Rich series.

Change the Way You THINK! How to Really Get RICH Guide 2023

Learn to Use the FORCE! How to Really Get Rich Part 2 of 3

The Investing Assets Spectrum - How to Really Get RICH

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※ Patrons Get FIRST access to all of my In-depth analysis and high probability Trend Forecasts, usually 2 full months before the rest of the world. Notified by Patreon by email as well as posted on this page and I will also send a short message in case the extensive email does not make it to your inbox.

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So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before next rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

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Your analyst.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2023 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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