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Stock, Commodities and Currency Futures Markets Analysis

Stock-Markets / Futures Trading Nov 11, 2008 - 08:17 AM GMT

By: INO

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis Article The December NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extends Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the overnight decline, October's low crossing at 1136.75 is the next downside target. Closes above last Wednesday's high crossing at 1389.00 are needed to renew the rally off October's low. Closes above the October 14th reaction high crossing at 1499.00 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted.


The December NASDAQ 100 was down 17.00 pts. at 1239.50 as of 5:59 AM CST. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1321.25. Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 1389.00. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 1235.00. Second support is October's low crossing at 1136.75. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by December NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.

The December S&P 500 index was lower overnight as it extends Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends last week's decline, October's low crossing at 825.00 is the next downside target. Closes above last Wednesday's high crossing at 1008.00 is the next upside target. Closes above the October 14th reaction high crossing at 1066.50 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 962.30. Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 1008.00. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 897.00. Second support is October's low crossing at 825.00. The December S&P 500 Index was down 11.50 pts. at 910.00 as of 6:00 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the December S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

INTEREST RATES
December T-bonds were higher overnight as they extend Monday's rally above the 10-day moving average crossing at 115-22. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the overnight rally, the reaction high crossing at 119-29 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 115-08 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in December T-bonds. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 118-06. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 119-29. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 115-19. Second support is Monday's low crossing at 115-08.

ENERGY MARKETS
December crude oil was lower overnight as it extends last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this fall's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2002-2008-rally crossing at 51.81 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 71.77 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 64.51. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.68. First support is Monday's low crossing at 59.10. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 51.81.

December heating oil was lower overnight as it consolidates below the 10-day moving average crossing at 201.88. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews this fall's decline, monthly support marked by the 62% retracement level of the 1999-2008-rally crossing at 176.90 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 221.13 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 201.88. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 205.27. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 193.67. Second support is October's low crossing at 190.89.
December unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extends last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews this fall's decline, the December 2004 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 103.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 158.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 141.41. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 149.39. First support is Monday's low crossing at 131.40. Second support is the December 2004 low crossing at 103.50.

December Henry natural gas was lower overnight due to profit taking but remains above the 20- day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short- term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.861 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If December renews this fall's decline, the 2006 December low crossing at 6.000 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 7.332 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 7.360. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 8.199. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.940. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.861.

CURRENCIES

The December Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 83.75 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at 90.27 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 87.48. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 88.49. First support is the 20- day moving average crossing at 85.51. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 84.45.

The December Euro was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates below the 10-day moving average crossing at 127.933. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 129.057 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews this fall's decline, monthly support marked by the 50% retracement level of the 2001-2008-rally crossing at 121.770 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 129.057. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 132.770. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 126.340. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 125.070.  

The December British Pound was lower overnight as it extends last week's decline below the 10- day moving average crossing at 1.5895. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish hinting that additional weakness is possible near-term. If December renews this fall's decline, monthly support crossing at 1.4574 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1.6634 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.5895. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.6217. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.5483. Second support is October's low crossing at 1.5224.

The December Swiss Franc was slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of last Thursday's decline but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at .8600. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at .8931 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted. If December extends this fall's decline, monthly support crossing at .8238 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .8600. Second resistance is the 20-
day moving average crossing at .8652. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at .8303. Second support is monthly support crossing at .8238.

The December Canadian Dollar was slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates above the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.62. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.62 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the rally off October's low, the reaction high crossing at 88.42 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 87.24. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 88.42. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.62. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 80.82.

The December Japanese Yen was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off October's high, the 62% retracement level of the August-October rally crossing at .9821 is the next downside target. Closes above last Friday's high crossing at .10347 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at .10347. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at .10396. First support is Monday's low crossing at .10058. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at .9953.

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PRECIOUS METALS
December gold was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near- term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 778.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews this fall's decline, the 62% retracement level of the 2004- 2008-rally crossing at 651.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 752.10. Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 770.00. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 725.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 717.10.

December silver was lower overnight due to profit taking but remains above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.752. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.752 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If December extends last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 12.355 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 10.800. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 11.195. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.988. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.752.

December copper was lower overnight as it extends last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the overnight decline, October's low crossing at 162.65 is the next downside target. Closes below October's low would renew this fall's decline while opening the door for a possible test of monthly support crossing at 152.15. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 217.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 189.00. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 189.58. First support is the overnight low crossing at 168.50. Second support is October's low crossing at 162.65.

FOOD & FIBER

SOFTS: March sugar closed up 7 points at 12.08 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Prices are still trading below a 2.5-month-old downtrend line drawn from the August and September highs. Bears have the near-term technical advantage.

December coffee closed up 75 points at 112.85 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today after holding moderate gains early on. Coffee bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in an 11-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. However, solid gains in the near term would form a bullish head-and- shoulders bottom reversal pattern on the daily bar chart.

December cocoa closed up $7 at $1,943 today. Prices closed near the session low today. Cocoa bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,100.

December cotton closed down 77 points at 41.30 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low and set another fresh contract low today. The cotton bears have the solid near- term technical advantage and gained more power today. Prices are still in a 7.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

January orange juice closed down 175 points at $.8480. Prices closed near the session low today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been trading sideways for four weeks and that does favor the bullish camp as it suggests a bottoming process.
January lumber futures closed up $3.40 at $205.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session high on short covering in a bear market. Lumber bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.

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GRAINS Agricultural Commodities Analysis

December corn was lower overnight due to due to spillover weakness from outside markets such as energies and precious metals. December continues to extend this fall's trading range as it tries to build a harvest bottom. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off June's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2007-2008-rally crossing at 3.27 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above gap resistance on the day only chart crossing at 4.53 are needed to confirm that a seasonal low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.95 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.33. First support is Monday's low crossing at 3.72 3/4. Second support is October's low crossing at 3.64.

December wheat was lower overnight as it extends Monday's decline below the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.38 1/2. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The low-range close overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session opens later this morning. If December extends the decline off August's high, the May 2007 low crossing at 4.90 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 5.87 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down 5-cents at 5.63.

December Kansas City Wheat closed lower on Monday as it consolidates below the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.77 1/2. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews this summer's decline, the May 2007 low crossing at 4.96 is the next downside target. Closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 6.22 1/2 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted.
December Minneapolis wheat closed unchanged at 6.40.

December Minneapolis wheat closed unchanged on Monday as it consolidated some of last Friday's rally but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.46 1/4. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends last week's decline, October's low crossing at 5.89 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 7.10 are needed to confirm that a seasonal bottom has been posted.  

SOYBEAN COMPLEX
January soybeans were lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 10.05 are needed confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 8.48 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 9.81 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 10.05. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 8.82 1/2. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 8.48.

December soybean meal was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the short covering rebound off last Friday's low. The low-range overnight close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July-August downtrend line crossing near 279.10 are needed to confirm that a trend change has taken place. If December renews last week's decline, October's low crossing at 236.90 is the next downside target.

December soybean oil was sharply lower overnight due to spillover selling pressure from lower energy prices. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 37.08 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 33.14 would temper the near- term friendly outlook in the market. If December renews this fall's decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2007-2008-rally crossing at 29.62 is the next downside target.

LIVESTOCK

December live cattle closed down $0.15 at $92.65 today. Prices closed near the session low today. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still trading below a four-month-old downtrend line on the daily bar chart.

March feeder cattle closed down $0.05 at $99.62 today. Prices closed near mid-range today on a mild corrective pullback from recent gains. The bulls still have some technical momentum to begin to suggest a near-term low is in place, but need to show fresh power soon.

December lean hogs closed down $0.40 at $55.00 today. Prices closed near mid-range today in quiet trading. Hog bears still have the near-term technical advantage, amid still-bearish cash hog market fundamentals. Prices are still in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. There are no clues of a market low being close at hand.

February pork bellies closed down $1.90 at $84.20 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six- week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

By INO.com

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