Stock, Commodities and Currency Futures Markets Analysis 14th November
Stock-Markets / Futures Trading Nov 14, 2008 - 09:48 AMBy: INO
The December NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below October's low crossing at 1136.75 would open the door for a possible test of monthly support crossing at 979.90 later this year. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 1321.25 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes above last Wednesday's high crossing at 1389.00 are needed to renew the rally off October's low. The December NASDAQ 100 was down 5.50 pts. at 1229.00 as of 6:01 AM CST. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1266.37. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1321.25. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 1108.50. Second support is monthly support crossing at 979.90. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by December NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.
The December S&P 500 index was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, the 2001 low crossing at 767.50 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 962.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes above the October 14th reaction high crossing at 1066.50 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted.
First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 924.57. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 962.30. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 817.50. Second support is the 2001 low crossing at 767.50. The December S&P 500 Index was down 9.10 pts. at 898.60 as of 6:05 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the December S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
INTEREST RATES
December T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight as they consolidate some of Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 119-
29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 116-04 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 118-22. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 119-29. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 116-22. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 116-
04.
ENERGY MARKETS
December crude oil was steady to lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this fall's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2002-2008-rally crossing at 51.81 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 71.77 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 61.54. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.39. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 54.67. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 51.81.
December heating oil was lower overnight as it consolidates below October's low crossing at 190.89. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this fall's decline, monthly support marked by the 62% retracement level of the 1999-2008-rally crossing at 176.90 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 221.13 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 196.34. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 200.62. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 179.19. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 1999-2008-rally crossing at 176.90.
December unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's short covering bounce. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this fall's decline, the December 2004 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 103.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 158.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 135.01. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 143.34. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 121.00. Second support is the December 2004 low crossing at 103.50.
December Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, monthly support crossing at 6.000 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 7.360 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.809. Second resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 7.360. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 6.084. Second support is monthly support crossing at 6.000.
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CURRENCIES
The December Dollar was slightly lower overnight as it extends Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish but diverging, hinting that a double top with October's high might be forming. If December extends the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at 90.27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 86.30 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. However, it will take closes below the reaction low crossing at 83.75 to confirm that a double top with October's high has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 88.63. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 90.27. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 86.72. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 86.30.
The December Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline but remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 127.723. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 127.723 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends this week's decline, October's low crossing at 123.260 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 127.723. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 132.770. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 123.720. Second support is October's low crossing at 123.260.
The December British Pound was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If December extends this fall's decline, monthly support crossing at 1.4004 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5840 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10- day moving average crossing at 1.5442. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5839. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 1.4551. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.4004.
The December Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this fall's decline, monthly support crossing at .8238 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .8587 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .8490. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .8587. First support is Thursday's low crossing at .8334. Second support is monthly support crossing at .8238.
The December Canadian Dollar was higher overnight due to light short covering as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline but remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.14. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-
term. If December extends Wednesday's decline, October's low crossing at 76.86 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 83.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.14. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 83.60. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 80.25. Second support is October's low crossing at 76.86.
The December Japanese Yen was slightly lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, October's high crossing at .11033 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at .9953 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at .10593. Second resistance is October's high crossing at .110333. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .10238. Second support is the reaction low crossing at .10058.
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PRECIOUS METALS
December gold was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline but remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 737.80. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, October's low crossing at 681.00 is the next downside target. Closes below October's low would renew this fall's decline while opening the door for a possible test of the 62% retracement level of the 2004-2008-rally crossing at 651.10 later this year. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 778.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 737.80. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 768.90. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 698.20. Second support is the October's low crossing at 681.00.
December silver was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline but remains below the 20-day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, October's low crossing at 8.400 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 10.800 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.665. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.798. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 8.770. Second support is October's low crossing at 8.400.
December copper was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below October's low would renew this fall's decline while opening the door for a possible test of monthly support crossing at 152.15. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 217.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 174.16. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 181.83. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 157.00. Second support is monthly support crossing at 152.15.
FOOD & FIBER
SOFTS: March sugar closed down 16 points at 11.45 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit another fresh two-week low. There continues to be a "buyer's strike" in most commodity futures markets. Sugar prices are still trading below a 2.5-month-old downtrend line drawn from the August and September highs. Bears have the near-
term technical advantage.
December coffee closed down 125 points at 110.50 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low and scored a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart today. Coffee bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in an 11-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
December cocoa closed up $1 at $1,913 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and did hit a fresh three-week low. Cocoa bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.
December cotton closed up 230 points at 41.75 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high on short covering in a bear market. The cotton bears still have the solid near-
term technical advantage, but the market is still short-
term oversold and due for more of a corrective upside bounce very soon. Prices are still in a 7.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
January orange juice closed up 60 points at $.8370. Prices closed nearer the session high in more quiet trading today. The recent "collapse in volatility" makes me suspect a bigger price move is on the horizon. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been trading sideways for four weeks and that does favor the bullish camp as it suggests a bottoming process.
January lumber futures closed down $1.40 at $201.70 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. Lumber bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside technical objective for the lumber bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $211.50.
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GRAINS Agricultural Commodities Analysis
December corn was higher overnight due to due to short covering as it extends Thursday's rebound. Concerns over harvest delays are helping to provide light support to the market. December continues to extend this fall's trading range as it tries to build a harvest bottom. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off June's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2007-2008-rally crossing at 3.27 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above gap resistance on the day only chart crossing at 4.53 are needed to confirm that a seasonal low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.84 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.91 1/2. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 3.60 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2007-2008-rally crossing at 3.27 1/4.
December wheat was higher overnight due to light short covering and the unwinding of the corn/wheat and wheat/soybean spreads while extending this fall's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The low-range close overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session opens later this morning. If December renews the decline off August's high, the May 2007 low crossing at 4.90 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 5.87 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up 2 1/2-cents at 5.78.
December Kansas City Wheat closed higher on Thursday due to short covering but remains below the 87% retracement level of the 2006-2008-rally crossing at 5.86 3/4. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 6.22 1/2 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted. If December renews this summer's decline, the May 2007 low crossing at 4.96 is the next downside target.
December Minneapolis wheat closed down 6 1/4-cents at 6.46 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 6.82 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews last week's decline, October's low crossing at 5.89 is the next downside target.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
January soybeans were lower overnight as it consolidates below the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.17 1/4. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 8.48 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 9.81 3/4 are needed confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.17 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.54 1/4. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 8.72 3/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 8.48.
December soybean meal was steady to slightly higher due to short covering overnight. The low- range overnight close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, October's low crossing at 236.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the July-August downtrend line crossing near 274.20 are needed to confirm that a trend change has taken place.
December soybean oil was slightly lower overnight due to spillover pressure from lower energy prices. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, October's low crossing at 30.65 is the next downside target. Closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 37.08 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews this fall's decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2007-2008-rally crossing at 29.62 is the next downside target.
LIVESTOCK
December live cattle closed up $0.02 at $90.55 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh two-week low again today. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still trading below a four-month-old downtrend line on the daily bar chart.
March feeder cattle closed up $0.12 at $97.12 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Prices also hit another fresh two-week low. Bears have the near-term technical advantage.
December lean hogs closed up $0.75 at $56.20 today. Prices hit a fresh two-week high again today and closed near the session high. Short covering in a bear market was featured again today. Hog bears still have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a 3.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. There are still no clues of a market low being close at hand. However, a bullish weekly high close on Friday would provide the bulls with some fresh upside technical momentum.
February pork bellies closed up $0.30 at $85.25 today. Prices closed near mid-range again today on more tepid short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
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