Stock, Commodities and Currency Futures Markets Analysis 17th November
Stock-Markets / Futures Trading Nov 17, 2008 - 09:35 AMBy: INO
The December NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extends last Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-
term. Closes below October's low crossing at 1136.75 would open the door for a possible test of monthly support crossing at 979.90 later this year. Closes above last Monday's high crossing at 1321.25 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1389.00 are needed to renew the rally off October's low. The December NASDAQ 100 was down 6.75 pts. at 1148.75 as of 5:48 AM CST. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1239.75. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1258.51. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 1108.50. Second support is monthly support crossing at 979.90. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by December NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.
The December S&P 500 index was lower overnight as it extends last Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends last week's decline, the March 2003 low crossing at 787.50 is the next downside target. Closes above last Monday's high crossing at 962.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes above the October 14th reaction high crossing at 1066.50 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted.
First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 909.42. Second resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 962.30. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 817.50. Second support is the March 2003 low crossing at 787.50. The December S&P 500 Index was down 5.40 pts. at 856.10 as of 5:53 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the December S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
INTEREST RATES
December T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight as they extend last Friday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 119-29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 116-15 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 119-05. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 119-29. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 117-11. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 116-15.
ENERGY MARKETS
December crude oil was lower overnight as it extends last Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this fall's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2002-2008-
rally crossing at 51.81 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 71.77 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 60.67. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.43. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 54.67. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 51.81.
December heating oil was lower overnight as it extends last week's decline below October's low crossing at 190.89. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this fall's decline, monthly support marked by the 62% retracement level of the 1999-2008-rally crossing at 176.90 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the reaction high crossing at 221.13 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 194.27. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 198.35. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 179.19. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 1999-2008-rally crossing at 176.90.
December unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extends last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this fall's decline, the December 2004 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 103.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 158.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 133.19. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 140.76. First support is the overnight low crossing at 120.59. Second support is the December 2004 low crossing at 103.50.
December Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, monthly support crossing at 6.000 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 7.360 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.759. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 7.360. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 6.054. Second support is monthly support crossing at 6.000.
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CURRENCIES
The December Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral, hinting that a double top with October's high might be forming. If December extends the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at 90.27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 86.47 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. However, it will take closes below the reaction low crossing at 83.75 to confirm that a double top with October's high has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 88.63. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 90.27. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 86.70. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 86.47.
The December Euro was lower overnight as it consolidates below the 20-day moving average crossing at 127.424. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 127.424 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends last week's decline, October's low crossing at 123.260 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 127.424. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 132.770. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 123.720. Second support is October's low crossing at 123.260.
The December British Pound was slightly lower overnight and is poised to extend last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If December extends this fall's decline, monthly support crossing at 1.4004 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5736 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.5365. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5736. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 1.4551. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.4004.
The December Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this fall's decline, monthly support crossing at .8238 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .8572 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .8478. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .8572. First support is this month's low crossing at .8303. Second support is monthly support crossing at .8238.
The December Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates below the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.99. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends last week's decline, October's low crossing at 76.86 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 83.27 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.99. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 83.27. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 80.25. Second support is October's low crossing at 76.86.
The December Japanese Yen was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates above the 10-day moving average crossing at .10255. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends last week's rally, October's high crossing at .11033 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at .9953 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at .10593. Second resistance is October's high crossing at .110333. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .10255. Second support is the reaction low crossing at .10058.
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PRECIOUS METALS
December gold was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday's rally but remains above the 20-day moving average crossing at 736.10. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends last week's decline, October's low crossing at 681.00 is the next downside target. Closes below October's low would renew this fall's decline while opening the door for a possible test of the 62% retracement level of the 2004-2008-rally crossing at 651.10 later this year. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 778.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 754.00. Second resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 768.90. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 698.20. Second support is the October's low crossing at 681.00.
December silver was slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of last week's decline but remains below the 20-day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends last week's decline, October's low crossing at 8.400 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 10.800 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.665. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.791. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 8.770. Second support is October's low crossing at 8.400.
December copper was lower overnight as it consolidates below the 10-day moving average crossing at 172.32. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below October's low would renew this fall's decline while opening the door for a possible test of monthly support crossing at 152.15. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 217.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 172.32. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 179.52. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 157.00. Second support is monthly support crossing at 152.15.
FOOD & FIBER
December coffee closed higher on Friday and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews last week's decline, October's low crossing at 10.505 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 12.110 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
December cocoa closed sharply higher on Friday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.93 signaling that a larger-degree short covering rally might be unfolding. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 21.96 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews this fall's decline, the 2007 low crossing at 18.45 is the next downside target.
March sugar closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, October's low crossing at 10.44 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 11.99 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
December cotton closed slightly higher on Friday as it extends the rebound off Wednesday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turning bullish hinting that a short covering bounce is possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 44.92 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 36.16 is the next downside target.
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GRAINS Agricultural Commodities Analysis
December corn was fractionally higher overnight due to due to short covering as it extends the rebound off last week's low. December continues to extend this fall's trading range as it tries to build a harvest bottom. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a harvest low might be in or is near. If December renews the decline off June's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2007-2008-rally crossing at 3.27 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above gap resistance on the day only chart crossing at 4.53 are needed to confirm that a seasonal low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.82. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.89 1/2. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 3.60 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2007-2008-rally crossing at 3.27 1/4.
December wheat was fractionally lower overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday's rally but remains above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.36. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The low-range close overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session opens later this morning. Multiple closes above the reaction high crossing at 5.87 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, the May 2007 low crossing at 4.90 is the next downside target.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up 15 1/4-cents at 5.93 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed higher on Friday due to short covering as it consolidates above the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.79 1/2. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 6.22 1/2 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted. If December renews this summer's decline, the May 2007 low crossing at 4.96 is the next downside target.
December Minneapolis wheat closed up 11 1/4-cents at 6.57 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Friday and above the 10-day moving average. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 6.82 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews last week's decline, October's low crossing at 5.89 is the next downside target.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
January soybeans were lower overnight as it consolidates below the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.13. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 8.48 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 9.81 3/4 are needed confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.13. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.54 1/4. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 8.72 3/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 8.48.
December soybean meal was slightly higher due to short covering overnight. The low-range overnight close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If
December extends last week's decline, October's low crossing at 236.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 291.30 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted and that a trend change has taken place.
December soybean oil was lower overnight due to spillover pressure from crude oil. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends last week's decline, October's low crossing at 30.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 37.08 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews this fall's decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2007-2008- rally crossing at 29.62 is the next downside target.
LIVESTOCK
December hogs closed down $0.62 at $55.57.
December hogs closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidates below the 20-day moving average crossing at 56.19. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 56.19 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends this fall's decline, monthly support crossing at 50.65 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 56.19. Second resistance is the October 30th gap crossing at 57.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 55.07. Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 53.90.
February bellies closed up $0.05 at $85.30.
February bellies closed higher on Friday as it consolidates above the 10-day moving average crossing at 84.66. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.87 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February renews this fall's decline, weekly support crossing at 80.67 is the next downside target.
December cattle closed down $0.50 at 90.05.
December cattle closed lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline below the 20-day moving average. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, October's low crossing at 87.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 92.29 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
January feeder cattle closed down $1.10 at $95.27.
January Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday as it extends this week's breakout below the 20-day moving average. The low-
range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends this week's decline, October's low crossing at 93.07 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 101.00 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
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