Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 - 4th Dec 21
INVESTING LESSON - Give your Portfolio Some Breathing Space - 4th Dec 21
Don’t Get Yourself Into a Bull Trap With Gold - 4th Dec 21
GOLD HAS LOTS OF POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE - 4th Dec 21
4 Tips To Help You Take Better Care Of Your Personal Finances- 4th Dec 21
What Is A Golden Cross Pattern In Trading? - 4th Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - Part 2 - 3rd Dec 21
Stock Market Major Turning Point Taking Place - 3rd Dec 21
The Masters of the Universe and Gold - 3rd Dec 21
This simple Stock Market mindset shift could help you make millions - 3rd Dec 21
Will the Glasgow Summit (COP26) Affect Energy Prices? - 3rd Dec 21
Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock - 1st Dec 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years - 1st Dec 21 t
Will the Anointed Finanical Experts Get It Wrong Again? - 1st Dec 21
Main Differences Between the UK and Canadian Gaming Markets - 1st Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - 30th Nov 21
Omicron Covid Wave 4 Impact on Financial Markets - 30th Nov 21
Can You Hear It? That’s the Crowd Booing Gold’s Downturn - 30th Nov 21
Economic and Market Impacts of Omicron Strain Covid 4th Wave - 30th Nov 21
Stock Market Historical Trends Suggest A Strengthening Bullish Trend In December - 30th Nov 21
Crypto Market Analysis: What Trading Will Look Like in 2022 for Novice and Veteran Traders? - 30th Nov 21
Best Stocks for Investing to Profit form the Metaverse and Get Rich - 29th Nov 21
Should You Invest In Real Estate In 2021? - 29th Nov 21
Silver Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 21
Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 28th Nov 21
Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year - 28th Nov 21
Sheffield First Snow Winter 2021 - Snowballs and Snowmen Fun - 28th Nov 21
Stock Market Investing LESSON - Buying Value - 27th Nov 21
Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD 66% Performance Loss After 6 Months of Use - Benchmark Tests - 27th Nov 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Producer Price Inflation Biggest Drop On Record

Economics / Inflation Nov 18, 2008 - 04:43 PM GMT

By: Mike_Shedlock

Economics Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBloomberg is reporting Producer Prices Fall Most on Record .
Yields on 10-year notes touched the lowest in more than three weeks as a slumping economy raised the specter of deflation. Oil reached a 22-month low. China surpassed Japan as the largest foreign holder of Treasuries, easing concern that global investors will stop buying U.S. debt as the government funds a record budget deficit.


The larger-than-forecast 2.8 percent drop in producer prices was the biggest since records began in 1947 and followed a 0.4 percent decline in September, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The median projection in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 1.9 percent fall.

Consumer prices likely dropped 0.8 percent, the most since 1949, according to another Bloomberg survey. The report is scheduled to be released tomorrow.

Net purchases of U.S. bonds, notes and stocks rose to $66.2 billion in September, from a revised $21 billion the month before, the Treasury Department said today. China bought $43.6 billion of Treasuries in the month, replacing Japan as the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt. Japanese investors sold $12.8 billion.

"This is the tail end of what has been a global savings glut," said George Goncalves, chief Treasury and agency strategist with Morgan Stanley, another primary dealer. It "came at the expense of U.S. consumers saving less and foreign consumers saving more."

Savings Glut Theory Yet Again

Can we please dispense with "savings glut" theory? There is no savings glut. Printing RMB in China to buy US Treasuries does not constitute "savings".

For more on the "Savings Glut" idea please see

Producer Price Indexes – October 2008

Let's take a look at the official PPI October 2008 Release .

The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods fell 2.8 percent in October, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. This decrease followed a 0.4 percent decline in September and a 0.9-percent fall in August. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by manufacturers of intermediate goods moved down 3.9 percent in October after declining 1.2 percent in September, and the crude goods index dropped 18.6 percent subsequent to a 7.9-percent decrease in the previous month.

Finished Goods PPI



The overall PPI for finished goods as well as energy have declined three consecutive months. The same holds true for intermediate goods and crude goods.

Intermediate Goods PPI


The key number on the above chart is the year over year decline (the change in crude goods from 12 months ago). Expect to see year over year numbers become increasingly negative as comparisons to prior years become increasingly easy to beat.

$CRB Commodity Prices Monthly Chart

Commodity prices are now below what they were in January of 2003.

By Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management . Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

Visit Sitka Pacific's Account Management Page to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

I do weekly podcasts every Thursday on HoweStreet and a brief 7 minute segment on Saturday on CKNW AM 980 in Vancouver.

When not writing about stocks or the economy I spends a great deal of time on photography and in the garden. I have over 80 magazine and book cover credits. Some of my Wisconsin and gardening images can be seen at MichaelShedlock.com .

© 2008 Mike Shedlock, All Rights Reserved

Mike Shedlock Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in