Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
The Beatings Will Continue Until the Economy Improves - 6th Jul 20
The Corona Economic Depression Is Here - 6th Jul 20
Stock Market Short-term Peaking - 6th Jul 20
Gold’s Major Reversal to Create the “Handle” - 5th July 20
Gold Market Manipulation And The Federal Reserve - 5th July 20
Overclockers UK Custom Build PC Review - 1. Ordering / Stock Issues - 5th July 20
How to Bond With Your Budgie / Parakeet With Morning Song and Dance - 5th July 20
Silver Price Trend Forecast Summer 2020 - 3rd Jul 20
Silver Market Is at a Critical Juncture - 3rd Jul 20
Gold Stocks Breakout Not Confirmed Yet - 3rd Jul 20
Coronavirus Strikes Back. But Force Is Strong With Gold - 3rd Jul 20
Stock Market Russell 2000 Gaps Present Real Targets - 3rd Jul 20
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Big Pharma Stock for Machine Learning Life Extension Investing - 2nd Jul 20
All Eyes on Markets to Get a Refreshed Outlook - 2nd Jul 20
The Darkening Clouds on the Stock Market S&P 500 Horizon - 2nd Jul 20
US Fourth Turning Reaches Boiling Point as America Bends its Knee - 2nd Jul 20
After 2nd Quarter Economic Carnage, the Quest for Philippine Recovery - 2nd Jul 20
Gold Completes Another Washout Rotation – Here We Go - 2nd Jul 20
Roosevelt 2.0 and ‘here, hold my beer' - 2nd Jul 20
U.S. Dollar: When Almost Everyone Is Bearish... - 1st Jul 20
Politicians Prepare New Money Drops as US Dollar Weakens - 1st Jul 20
Gold Stocks Still Undervalued - 1st Jul 20
High Premiums in Physical Gold Market: Scam or Supply Crisis? - 1st Jul 20
US Stock Markets Enter Parabolic Price Move - 1st Jul 20
In The Year 2025 If Fiat Currency Can Survive - 30th Jun 20
Gold Likes the IMF Predicting a Deeper Recession - 30th Jun 20
Silver Is Still Cheap For Now - 30th Jun 20
More Stock Market Selling Ahead - 30th Jun 20
Trending Ecommerce Sites in 2020 - 30th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching the Precipice - 29th Jun 20
APPLE Tech Stock for Investing to Profit from the Machine Learning Mega trend - 29th Jun 20
Student / Gamer Custom System Build June 2020 Proving Impossible - Overclockers UK - 29th Jun 20
US Dollar with Ney and Gann Angles - 29th Jun 20
Europe's Banking Sector: When (and Why) the Rout Really Began - 29th Jun 20
Will People Accept Rampant Inflation? Hell, No! - 29th Jun 20
Gold & Silver Begin The Move To New All-Time Highs - 29th Jun 20
US Stock Market Enters Parabolic Price Move – Be Prepared - 29th Jun 20
Meet BlackRock, the New Great Vampire Squid - 28th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching a Defining Moment - 28th Jun 20
U.S. Long Bond: Let's Review the "Upward Point of Exhaustion" - 27th Jun 20
Gold, Copper and Silver are Must-own Metals - 27th Jun 20
Why People Have Always Held Gold - 27th Jun 20
Crude Oil Price Meets Key Resistance - 27th Jun 20
INTEL x86 Chip Giant Stock Targets Artificial Intelligence and Quantum Computing for 2020's Growth - 25th Jun 20
Gold’s Long-term Turning Point is Here - 25th Jun 20
Hainan’s ASEAN Future and Dark Clouds Over Hong Kong - 25th Jun 20
Silver Price Trend Analysis - 24th Jun 20
A Stealth Stocks Double Dip or Bear Market Has Started - 24th Jun 20
Trillion-dollar US infrastructure plan will draw in plenty of metal - 24th Jun 20
WARNING: The U.S. Banking System ISN’T as Strong as Advertised - 24th Jun 20
All That Glitters When the World Jitters is Probably Gold - 24th Jun 20
Making Sense of Crude Oil Price Narrow Trading Range - 23rd Jun 20
Elon Musk Mocks Nikola Motors as “Dumb.” Is He Right? - 23rd Jun 20
MICROSOFT Transforming from PC Software to Cloud Services AI, Deep Learning Giant - 23rd Jun 20
Stock Market Decline Resumes - 22nd Jun 20
Excellent Silver Seasonal Buying Opportunity Lies Directly Ahead - 22nd Jun 20
Where is the US Dollar trend headed ? - 22nd Jun 20
Most Shoppers have Stopped Following Supermarket Arrows, is Coughing the New Racism? - 22nd Jun 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

AI Stocks 2020-2035 15 Year Trend Forecast

How to Invest Like Warren Buffett

Stock-Markets / Investing Dec 10, 2008 - 09:47 AM GMT

By: Investment_U

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleNot long ago I excerpted a recent New York Times column by Warren Buffett explaining his take on the recent market sell-off.

Despite the dour economic outlook, Buffett expects U.S. companies to report record profits within five years. He is getting fully invested in stocks in his own personal account.


Since Warren Buffett's column originally ran on October 14th, however, the S&P 500 has dropped 13%.

Hardly a day goes by that I don't get emails telling me that Buffett “blew it.” He was “too early.” Or he “failed to call the bottom.”

I beg to differ …

Warren Buffett's Economic Outlook

For the record, here is part of Warren Buffett's column that I excerpted:

“Let me be clear on one point: I can't predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven't the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month - or a year - from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up.”

Let's assume for a moment that Buffett is right and five years from now U.S. companies are reporting record profits.

Since we know that share prices follow earnings, the market will likely have met or exceeded its old record high. (The Dow crossed 14,000 in early October 2007.) Investors who bought good quality stocks at current levels will be in excellent shape. So will those who merely reinvested their dividends.

To clarify, let's try a thought experiment: Today is December 8, 2013. The Dow is at 14,000. Looking back, you can now choose any one of these three options - and magically reinvent history.

Over the past six years:

  • The Dow soared from 14,000 to 18,000 and has now declined to 14,000.
  • The Dow treaded water and rarely traded much higher or lower than 14,000.
  • The Dow sank to less than 8,000 and has since climbed back to 14,000.

With the luxury of hindsight, which scenario would you prefer?

If you're in the wealth accumulation phase, clearly the best answer is #3. It may have been scary, but this was the only scenario that offered you the maximum opportunity to buy low.

Investing Like Warren Buffett - Not The Average Investor

That's why, unlike the average investor who is sitting on his hands (except to bite his nails occasionally), Warren Buffett is actively buying stocks.

Some will counter that this is likely to be a steep recession and stocks may go substantially lower.

Buffett surely know this - and clearly reasons that this only makes option #3 more attractive.

History shows that most so-called market timers will either never move or move far too late. They're comfortable in cash because they believe - quite rightly in my view - that the economy will only get worse.

But think hard - and read your history - before you opt out of the market entirely. Yes, the Dow sometimes falls during a recession. But, perversely, other times it soars.

For example, in the 13-month recession in 1926-27, the market went up 41.1%. In the 8-month recession in 1945, it went up 19.5%. In the 11-month recession in 1948-49, it went up 15.2%. In the 10-month recession in 1953-54, it went up 24.2%. In the 10-month recession of 1960-61, it went up 20.3%. In the 16-month recession in 1981-82, it went up 14.6%. And so on.

In my view, investors who are cursing this market are either spending far too much time listening to the “end-of-the-worlders” or stuck looking back, not forward.

If Warren Buffett is right - and he has a long history of being just that - these investors are moaning at opportunity's door right now.

If you want to meet your five- and 10-year investment goals, imagine yourself five and 10 years from now. Ask yourself what you will wish then that you were doing with your money today.

Then govern yourself accordingly.

Good investing,

Alex

Today's Investment U Crib Sheet

Alexander Green has been recommending stocks for months now:

  • Last month he showed us the eight places we need to move our money to take advantage of losses from this year. To get them, and the reasons you should own ETFs instead of mutual funds, see Investment U Issue #891, Exchange Traded Funds : An Investment Move You Need to Make…
  • And while most investors are too scared to move, they're missing out on the opportunities out there - like the 13 companies at bargain-basement levels Alex gave us in October, in Investment U Issue #874, What If You're Wrong?

But when you're fully invested, with no plans to sell, it can be hard to find new sources of capital. That's why we've given you two unique ways to find cash:

  • Covered call investing can help you boost your bear market income. You can profit from the stocks you already own. To find out more about this two-step strategy, check out Investment U Issue #889, Covered Call Investing : How to Boost Your Bear-Market Income Right Now.
  • By selling puts, you can get paid to buy the stocks you want, at the prices you decide. This strategy pays you for waiting to purchase stocks. Find out more in Investment U Issue #882, Put Option Selling : Get Paid to Buy the Stocks You Want.

If you're looking for the best way to put your newfound cash to work, take a look at the White Cap Index. It's up 135%, on average, over the past 12 months. To get the full report, including the five latest companies to get White-Cap status, learn more about the White Cap Report .

Article - Investing Like Warren Buffett: Take Your Cue From the World's Best Investor

by Alexander Green , Chairman, Investment U Investment Director, The Oxford Club

http://www.investmentu.com

Copyright © 1999 - 2008 by The Oxford Club, L.L.C All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), of content from this website, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Investment U, Attn: Member Services , 105 West Monument Street, Baltimore, MD 21201 Email: CustomerService@InvestmentU.com

Disclaimer: Investment U Disclaimer: Nothing published by Investment U should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investment advice. We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication or 72 hours after the mailing of printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended by Investment U should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

Investment U Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules