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5 "Tells" that the Stock Markets Are About to Reverse

UK Christmas Early Sales, 50% Discounts for European Shoppers

Personal_Finance / Money Saving Dec 24, 2008 - 12:50 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Personal_Finance Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUK retail sales are experiencing a Christmas boom that looks set to hit a new record, boosted by buying from our European cousins as distressed retailers bring forward the January sales in the face of fierce competition for foot fall between retailers. The ongoing crash of the British Pound has taken sterling to just a a whisker away from parity to the Euro, now down by more than 30% from its high which means the already liberally advertised 20% discounts translate into a 50% discount for European shoppers, much as Briton's benefited not so long ago from the cheap shopping trips to New York at an exchange rate north of £/$2.00.


However as earlier analysis suggested that the fall in sterling will result in much higher high street consumer prices during 2009 as those retailers that have not gone bust seek to replenish stocks at much higher prices during 2009. This again suggests that the January Sales for Britons may prove to be more illusionary than real as the fall in sterling has already soaked up corporate margins, which again confirms that those UK shoppers seeking to make large purchases are probably better off to do so sooner rather than later.

Christmas Sales 2008

  • WH Smith - up to 75% off - Already started
  • Tesco - 70% off clothes - Already started
  • Matalan - Already started
  • New Look - Already started
  • B&Q - up to 75% off - Christmas Eve 6pm.
  • Boots - Up to 50% off, online only - Christmas Eve
  • John Lewis - 6pm Christmas Eve
  • Super Drug - Up to 90% - Online Christmas Eve, 25th in store.
  • M&S - midnight Christmas day
  • Debenhams - Online 25th December, 26th in store.
  • Selfridges - Up to 50% off, 26th in store.
  • PC World - 26th Dec in store - can reserve earlier online
  • House of Fraser - Up to 70% off - 26th in store.
  • River Island , 26th in store.
  • Boots - Up to 50% off, 26th in store.
  • Argos, 26th in store.
  • Harrods, 27th in store.

Inflation Deflating

The fall in sterling is highly inflationary, however at the same time we are experiencing the crash of the UK economy which is highly deflationary, this coupled with the crash in commodity prices such as crude oil falling from $147 to $33 in less than 5 months ensures that the immediate trend is for deflation i.e. falling prices, but primarily in terms of asset prices. Meanwhile the risk of all of the money printing that the Labour government is undertaking is stoking future inflation. A full depth analysis of UK deflation and inflation prospects during 2009 is under way, to receive this in your email inbox on the day of publication subscribe to our always free newsletter. Also due to be published this month is the in depth housing market analysis and forecast for 2009 to 2011 which is an update to what has proved to be the highly accurate analysis of August 2007 - UK Housing Market Crash of 2007 - 2008 and Steps to Protect Your Wealth, that forecast a 15% fall minimum and 25% fall for London.

Related Recent Graphs and Charts

UK Retail Sales Deflation, Many Retailers expected to go bust during January & February 2009.

Crude Oil Price Crash Deflation, falling from $147 to $33

UK Inflation Deflating at a fast pace as the economy plunges over the cliff

British Pound Crash of 2008

UK House Prices Crash Accelerates

UK Economic Crash - Unemployment Now above 2,000,000

Soaring Real Public Debt and Liabilities as Gordon Brown is Bankrupting Britain to win the Next Election

By Nadeem Walayat
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-08 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis specialises on the housing market and interest rates. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 150 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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