Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Gold, Silver and Copper - The 3 Metallic Amigos and Their Messages - 5th Dec 20
TESCO Christmas Decorations Festive Shop 2020 - How to Beat the Coronavirus Economic Depression - 5th Dec 20
Premium Bonds Good, Bad or Ugly Investment? Here's What Return (Prize Wins) to Expect - 5th Dec 20
How to accomplish a technical analysis with the Forex - 5th Dec 20
What is life insurance and what are the benefits of having it? - 5th Dec 20
Pre-COVID US Economy Wasn’t All That Great Either - 4th Dec 20
Bitcoin Breath Taking Surge - Crypto Trading Event - 4th Dec 20
Platinum Begins A New Rally – Gold & Silver Will Follow - 4th Dec 20
Don't Let the Silver (and Gold) Bull Shake You Off! - 4th Dec 20
Stronger Risk Appetite Sends Gold below $1,800 - 4th Dec 20
A new “miracle compound” is set to take over the biotech market - 4th Dec 20
Eiro-group Review –The power of trading education - 4th Dec 20
Early Investors set to win big as FDA fast-tracks this ancient medicine - 3rd Dec 20
New PC System Switch On, Where's Windows 10 Licence Key? Overclockers UK OEM Review (5) - 3rd Dec 20
Poundland Budget Christmas Decorations Shopping 2020 to Beat the Corona Economic Depression - 3rd Dec 20
What is the right type of insurance for you, and how do you find it? - 3rd Dec 20
What Are the 3 Stocks That Will Benefit from Covid-19? - 3rd Dec 20
Gold & the USDX: Correlations - 2nd Dec 20
How An Ancient Medicine Is Taking On The $16 Trillion Pharmaceutical Industry - 2nd Dec 20
Amazon Black Friday vs Prime Day vs Cyber Monday, Which are Real or Fake Sales - 1st Dec 20
The No.1 Biotech Stock for 2021 - 1st Dec 20
Stocks Bears Last Chance Before Market Rally To SPX 4200 In 2021 - 1st Dec 20
Globalists Poised for a “Great Reset” – Any Role for Gold? - 1st Dec 20
How to Get FREE REAL Christmas Tree 2020! Easy DIY Money Saving - 1st Dec 20
The Truth About “6G” - 30th Nov 20
Ancient Aztec Secret Could Lead To A $6.9 Billion Biotech Breakthrough - 30th Nov 20
AMD Ryzen Zen 3 NO UK MSRP Stock - 5600x, 5800x, 5900x 5950x Selling at DOUBLE FAKE MSRP Prices - 29th Nov 20
Stock Market Short-term Decision Time - 29th Nov 20
Look at These 2 Big Warning Signs for the U.S. Economy - 29th Nov 20
Dow Stock Market Short-term and Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 20
How To Spot The End Of An Excess Market Trend Phase – Part II - 28th Nov 20
BLOCKCHAIN INVESTMENT PRIMER - 28th Nov 20
The Gold Stocks Correction is Maturing - 28th Nov 20
Biden and Yellen Pushed Gold Price Down to $1,800 - 28th Nov 20
Sheffield Christmas Lights 2020 - Peace Gardens vs 2019 and 2018 - 28th Nov 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Offbeat Economic and Financial Predictions for 2009

Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis Jan 07, 2009 - 02:27 PM GMT

By: Oxbury_Research

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn this week's article, I wanted to follow up my article from last week – Predictions for 2009 - and this time offer some offbeat predictions for 2009. First, however, I wanted to make a few observations about making prognostications. Many times prognosticators look to the past for patterns which will repeat themselves in the future.


I myself look to history quite often, searching for parallels to what is happening today. However, I always keep in mind that famous Mark Twain quote - “History doesn't repeat itself, at best it sometimes rhymes”. The consensus Wall Street deflationists are ignoring this bit of wisdom.

The deflationists are assuming that hard economic times, like the 1930s, will lead to massive deflation. I predict that our current hard economic times will “rhyme”. The actions of the Bernacke Federal Reserve are completely different than the Federal Reserve of the 1930s. I believe that in 2009 we will have a lousy economy, burdened with $50 trillion of Uncle Sam's IOUs, and chronically high inflation.

Human (Psycho)logy

My view that the future danger we will face in the US economy will be very high inflation has led to people looking at me strangely and whispering behind my back. I'm hoping that it's not my looks or the way I'm dressed that it causing the whispering.

This brings me to my next point. Although people endlessly ask for prognostications, they rarely want to hear the answers. When people ask “What is going to happen?”, what they are seeking is reassurance and reaffirmation of their own views.

Since people feel most comfortable in a crowd, their view will most likely be the current prevailing consensus view. This is especially true on Wall Street where people are afraid to stand out from the crowd. I wrote about this phenomenon in an article a few weeks ago for Oxbury Publishing titled Wall Street Holidays .

People do not want to hear contrarian thoughts. People simply want to be told that they are correct and they want to be congratulated on their wisdom. Contrarians are scoffed at and ignored because, after all, they are nuts . Even when proven right they are disliked as being the bearer of “bad” news.

What about the other end of the spectrum – the people who constantly spout drivel and nonsense, such as the pundits seen daily on CNBC air? When confronted, these pundits either “don't recall” that they ever said such stupid things or they claim that they “knew” some event would happen all along.

My favorite though is seeing these pundits claim that they were victims of events that “no one” could have predicted. This is the Curly defense from the Three Stooges - “Sorry Moe, I'm a victim of circumstances! Nyuk! Nyuk!” Unfortunately, anyone who listened to these pundits and followed their advice is not laughing.

Some Non-Predictions

Some predictions are so easy that they really aren't predictions at all. Examples would include the following: The $50 billion Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme will be dwarfed by other similar Wall Street scandals to be revealed in 2009 and government bailouts will continue to grow exponentially across a wide spectrum of poorly-run American industries in 2009.

Another non-prediction that is a virtual certainty is that upon taking office on January 20 th , President Obama will propose a massive stimulus program for the US economy in the range of $1 trillion.

When thinking about how Congress will choose to spend all of that money I am reminded of that famous quote by Nikita Khrushev - “Politicians are the same all over. They promise to build bridges even when there are no rivers”. Please no comments about using a quote from a dead Communist comrade .

Offbeat Predictions

Here are a half dozen of my offbeat predictions for 2009.

Offbeat Prediction #1 - Speaking of Comrade Khrushev, in 2009 we will see a speech by Comrade Ben Bernacke where he takes off his shoe and pounds the podium saying, “History is on the side of the Federal Reserve. We will bury deflation (and you) in mounds of worthless Federal Reserve notes”!

Soon after the speech, black helicopters will be seen over every community in America dumping what seems like an infinite amount of Federal Reserve notes onto the populace below.

Offbeat Prediction #2 Fed chairman Bernacke will claim that he was abducted by aliens aboard a UFO. Ben will say that the aliens told him that they were from a planet called ZIRP – the Zero Interest Rate Planet.

Mr. Bernacke will say that the aliens gave him that the key to everlasting economic prosperity. This prosperity is to be brought about by having zero interest rates forever and flooding the economy with an infinite supply of funny money.

Offbeat Prediction #3 – 2009 will see new Treasury secretary, Tim Geithner, win the Sgt. Schultz award for the 2 nd year in a row. In 2008, Mr. Geithner won the award for his job as head of the New York Fed, overseeing Wall Street.

He exemplified the true spirit of the Sgt. Schultz award - “I hear nothing, I see nothing, and most of all I know nothing”! I think we would hard-pressed to find a more deserving recipient for the Sgt. Schultz award than than the “brilliant” Mr. Geithner.

Offbeat Prediction #4 In 2009, Bernie Madoff will be named as peace envoy to the Mideast. He will become an American folk hero after swindling Mideast rulers of their riches, thereby eliminating all US debts. Mr. Madoff gets the Mideast leaders to invest all of their vast fortunes into a scheme called the American Dream.

This scheme offers participants a luxurious lifestyle and a large, steady return on their money without breaking a sweat or doing any work. Participants just sit back, let other people do everything for them, and rely on the kindness of strangers to bail them out of any difficulties.

Offbeat Prediction #5 Wall Street will win the award as the most admired institution in America for 2009, narrowly beating out Congress. Americans will be overjoyed that their remaining savings has been invested by Wall Street into the last remaining financial market bubble – US Treasuries. After all, who doesn't love locking in those negative interest rates?

The tie-breaker in the voting for the award will be that Wall Street outdid Congress at their own game. In 2009, Wall Street will make trillions of dollars more disappear much like Wall Street did with the $700 billion TARP money. Wall Street will show those amateurs in Congress how to really spend (lose) taxpayers money rapidly.

Offbeat Prediction #6 All across America financial advisors and money managers will be nominated for humanitarian awards. These money managers will be lauded for putting their clients' financial needs ahead of any personal gain. They will held up to children as examples of what type of Americans they should strive to be when they grow up.

Disclosure: no positions

Regards,

By Tony D'Altorio

Analyst, Oxbury Research

Tony worked for more than 20 years in the investment business. Most of those years were spent with Charles Schwab & Co., both as a broker and as a trading supervisor. As a supervisor, he oversaw, at times, dozens of employees. Tony was trading supervisor during the great crash of 1987 and was responsible for millions of dollars of customers' orders.

Oxbury Research originally formed as an underground investment club, Oxbury Publishing is comprised of a wide variety of Wall Street professionals - from equity analysts to futures floor traders – all independent thinkers and all capital market veterans.

© 2008 Copyright Nick Thomas / Oxbury Research - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Oxbury Research Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules