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FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Stock, Commodities, Futures and Forex Markets Analysis 14th January 2009

Stock-Markets / Futures Trading Jan 14, 2009 - 10:15 AM GMT

By: INO

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe March NASDAQ 100 was lower in overnight trading as it extends Monday's decline below the 20-day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1156.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1231.42 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.


The March NASDAQ 100 was down 11.75 pts. at 1192.25 as of 5:56 AM CST. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1217.58. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1231.42. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1185.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1156.25. The March NASDAQ 100 was down 10.50 pts. at 1193.50 as of 5:56 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by March NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.

The March S&P 500 index was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline, the reaction low crossing at 853.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 897.75 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 889.48. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 897.75. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 856.70. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 853.00. The March S&P 500 Index was down 8.00 pts. at 860.20 as of 5:58 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the March S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

INTEREST RATES
March T-bonds were lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 137-11 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 38% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 130-01 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 135-09. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 137-11. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 131-23. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 130-01.

ENERGY MARKETS
February crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 35.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 42.75 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. Closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 50.47 are needed to renew the rally off December's low. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 41.69. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 42.75. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 36.10. Second support is December's low crossing at 35.13.

February heating oil was slightly higher overnight due to light short covering as it consolidates above the 20-day moving average crossing at 143.81. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 143.81 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If February renews the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 185.16 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 166.88. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 185.16. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 143.81. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 127.84.

February unleaded gas was slightly lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Tuesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 121.11 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.58 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 124.05. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 127.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.59. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 90.00.

February Henry natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends Tuesday's decline below December's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline, psychological support crossing at 5.000 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.687 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.651. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.687. First support is the overnight low crossing at 5.162. Second support is psychological support crossing at 5.000.

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CURRENCIES
The March Dollar was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, broken support crossing at 85.34 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.52 would confirm that the corrective rally off December's low has come to an end. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 85.20. Second resistance is broken support crossing at 85.34. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 83.46. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.53.

The March Euro was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, broken resistance crossing at 130.680 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 137.778 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 135.196. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 137.778. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 131.120. Second support is broken resistance crossing at 130.680.

The March British Pound was slightly higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. However, stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at 1.4329 is the next downside target. Closes below December's low crossing at 1.4329 would renew the decline off December's high. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4823 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-
day moving average crossing at 1.4787. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4823. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.4430. Second support is December's low crossing at 1.4329.

The March Swiss Franc was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off December's high, broken resistance crossing at .8495 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .9168 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .9072. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .9168. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at .8872. Second support is the reaction high crossing at .8495.

The March Canadian Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline but remains below the 20-daymoving average crossing at 82.76. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 80.85 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 83.13 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.76. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 83.13. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 80.96. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 80.85.

The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight due to light profit taking as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If March extends this week's rally, December's high crossing at .11492 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at .10974 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at .11271. Second resistance is December's high crossing at .11492. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .11058. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .10974.

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PRECIOUS METALS
February gold was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline but remains poised to test the November-December uptrend line crossing near 813.90. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the aforementioned uptrend line would confirm a trend change while opening the door for additional weakness and a possible test of December's low crossing at 741.20. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 853.20 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 850.60. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 853.20. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 814.00. Second support is the November-December uptrend line crossing near 813.90.

March silver was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline but remains below the 20-day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 10.105 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 11.123 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.955. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 11.123. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 10.415. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 10.105.

March copper was lower overnight due to profit taking but remains above the 20-day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 141.07 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If March renews last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 173.35 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 162.25. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 173.35. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 141.35. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 141.07.

FOOD & FIBER
March coffee closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends last week's rally, November's high crossing at 12.335 is the next upside target. Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 10.605 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

March cocoa closed lower on Tuesday and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If March renews the rally off October's low, the September 29th gap crossing at 27.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 24.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

March sugar closed slightly higher on Monday due to short covering as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.53 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If March renews the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 13.00 is the next upside target.

March cotton closed lower on Tuesday confirming Monday's decline below the 20-day moving average crossing at 47.11. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 41.31 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 48.69 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.

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GRAINS Agricultural Commodities Analysis

March corn was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 3.52 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.00 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's gap crossing at 3.80 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.96 1/2. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 3.61 3/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 3.52 3/4.

March wheat was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline but remains below the 20-day moving average. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.58 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.05 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

March Kansas City Wheat closed up 2-cents at 5.97.

Kansas City Wheat closed higher on Tuesday due to short covering as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 5.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.31 would temper the bearish outlook in the market.

March Minneapolis wheat closed up 8 3/4-cents at 6.37.

March Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Tuesday due to short covering as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 5.84 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.58 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX
March soybeans were higher overnight due to short covering as they consolidate some of Monday's limit down decline. The high-range overnight close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning. However, stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.40 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average would open the door for a larger-degree decline during January. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 10.23 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.

March soybean meal was higher due to short covering overnight trading as it consolidates some of Monday's decline but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 299.60. The high-range overnight close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends Monday's decline, the 20-day moving average is the next downside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 287.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 305.70 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.

March soybean oil was higher in overnight trading due to short covering as it consolidates some of Monday's decline but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 35.30. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If March extends this week's decline, the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.52 is the next downside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.52 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 38.04 is the next upside target.

LIVESTOCK
February hogs closed down $0.02 at $61.45.

February hogs closed slightly lower on Tuesday as it extended Monday's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If February extends this week's decline, gap support crossing at 60.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 62.24 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 61.75. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 62.24. First support is today's low crossing at 61.27. Second support is gap support crossing at 60.95.

February bellies closed up $0.45 at $85.00.

February bellies closed higher on Tuesday but the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends last week's decline, December's low crossing at 79.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 86.81 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 91.80 are needed to needed to renew the late-December rally.
February cattle closed up $1.17 at 84.07.

February cattle closed higher on Tuesday due to short covering. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends last week's decline, December's low crossing at 80.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.80 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. Closes above last week's high crossing at 89.10 are needed to renew the rebound off December's low.
March feeder cattle closed up $1.57 at $94.90.

March Feeder cattle closed higher on Tuesday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 94.21. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, gap resistance crossing at 95.95 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.22 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

By INO.com

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