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FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Stock, Commodities, Futures and Forex Markets Analysis 16th January 2009

Stock-Markets / Futures Trading Jan 16, 2009 - 09:55 AM GMT

By: INO

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends Thursday's short covering rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1097.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1219.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.


The March NASDAQ 100 was up 22.50 pts. at 1199.75 as of 5:57 AM CST. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1211.57. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1219.90. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 1138.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1097.00. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by March NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.

The March S&P 500 index was higher due to short covering overnight as it extends the rebound off Thursday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 882.71 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this week's decline, gap support crossing at 802.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 882.42. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 915.80. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 813.00. Second support is gap support crossing at 802.00. The March S&P 500 Index was up 16.80 pts. at 856.40 as of 6:01 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the March S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

INTEREST RATES
March T-bonds were sharply lower overnight as they consolidate some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 137-07 are needed to confirm that a short- term low has been posted. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 134-11 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 38% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 130-01 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 137-07. Second resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 137-31. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 134-11. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 131-23.

ENERGY MARKETS
February crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish but are oversold hinting that a low might be near. If February extends this month's decline, psychological support crossing at 30.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 40.64 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. Closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 50.47 are needed to renew the rally off December's low. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 40.64. Second resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 50.47. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 33.20. Second support is psychological support crossing at 30.00.

February heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates above the 20-day moving average crossing at 143.63. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 143.63 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If February renews the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 185.16 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 166.88. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 185.16. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 143.63. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 127.84.

February unleaded gas was slightly lower overnight due to light profit taking as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 121.11 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.86 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 124.05. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 127.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 113.92. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.86.

February Henry natural gas was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline, monthly support crossing at 4.623 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.594 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.451. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.594. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 4.742. Second support is monthly support crossing at 4.623.

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CURRENCIES
The March Dollar was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.94 would confirm that the corrective rally off December's low has come to an end. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the November-December decline crossing at 86.99 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 85.92. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level crossing at 86.99. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 83.97. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.94.

The March Euro was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidated some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 137.822 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 129.372 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 133.796. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 137.822. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 129.990. Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 129.372.

The March British Pound was higher overnight and trading above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4847 signaling that this month's decline might have come to an end. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4847 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at 1.4329 is the next downside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.4963. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 1.5356. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.4430. Second support is December's low crossing at 1.4329.

The March Swiss Franc was higher due to short covering overnight as it extends this week's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish but oversold hinting that a low might be in or is near. If March renews the decline off December's high, broken resistance crossing at .8495 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .9151 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .8995. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .9151. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at .8835. Second support is the reaction high crossing at .8495.

The March Canadian Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at 76.93 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 82.59 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.43. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 82.59. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 78.84. Second support is December's low crossing at 76.93.

The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral hinting that a short- term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at .11009 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If March extends this week's rally, December's high crossing at .11492 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at .11314. Second resistance is December's high crossing at .11492. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .11041. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .11009.

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PRECIOUS METALS
February gold was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline and is trading above the November-December uptrend line crossing near 818.90. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. If February extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 790.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 848.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 836.10. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 848.60. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 801.50. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing near 790.10.

March silver was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near- term. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 10.105 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.941 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.897. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.941. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 10.320. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 10.105.

March copper was higher overnight due to short covering and trading above the 10-day moving average crossing at 151.06. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 142.20 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If March renews last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 173.35 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 162.25. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 173.35. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 142.20. Second support is Tuesday's low crossing at 141.35.

FOOD & FIBER
March coffee closed higher on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past two weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a setback is possible near-term. Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 10.605 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews last week's rally, November's high crossing at 12.335 is the next upside target.

March cocoa closed lower on Thursday as it extended this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If March extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 23.02 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.66 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

March sugar closed higher on Thursday due to short covering as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 13.00 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.54 are needed to temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.

March cotton closed higher on Thursday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 48.42 tempering the bearish outlook in the market. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Closes above last week's crossing at 50.90 are needed to renew the rally off November's low.

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GRAINS Agricultural Commodities Analysis

March corn was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.94 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this week's decline, the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 3.52 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's gap crossing at 3.80 3/4. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.92. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 3.58 3/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 3.52 3/4.

March wheat was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates above the 50% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.58 3/4. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.58 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.97 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

March Kansas City Wheat closed down 5 1/2-cents at 5.94 1/2.

Kansas City Wheat closed lower on Thursday as it extended this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 5.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.25 1/4 would temper the bearish outlook in the market.

March Minneapolis wheat closed unchanged at 6.41 3/4.

March Minneapolis wheat closed unchanged on Thursday due to short covering as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-
term. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 5.84 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.55 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX
March soybeans were higher overnight as it extends Thursday's rally above the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.93. The high-range overnight close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above this week's high crossing at 10.24 are needed to renew the rally off December's low. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.53 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Strong export demand along with bullish weather conditions across portions of South America continue to underpin the soybean market.

March soybean meal was higher overnight as it extended Thursday's rally above the 10-day moving average crossing at 301.00. The high-range overnight close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 321.50 are needed to renew the rally off December's low. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 293.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

March soybean oil was higher in overnight trading due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If March extends this week's decline, the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.77 is the next downside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.77 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 38.04 is the next upside target.

LIVESTOCK
February hogs closed down $0.10 at $59.82.

February hogs closed lower on Thursday as it extended this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If February extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at 58.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 62.16 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's gap crossing at 61.27. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.50. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 59.10. Second support is December's low crossing at 58.90.

February bellies closed down $1.25 at $83.80.

February bellies closed lower on Thursday and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 87.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If February extends last week's decline, December's low crossing at 79.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 91.80 are needed to needed to renew the late-December rally.

February cattle closed up $1.00 at 84.35.

February cattle closed higher on Thursday and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.87 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. Closes above last week's high crossing at 89.10 are needed to renew the rebound off December's low. If February extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 80.60 is the next downside target.

March feeder cattle closed down $0.32 at $94.30.

March Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of Tuesday's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, gap resistance crossing at 95.95 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.72 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

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