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Urgent Stock Market Message

UK Official Unemployment Now Above 2.1 million Real 7.9million

Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010 Feb 15, 2009 - 01:21 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Economics Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUK unemployment shot up by 48,000 for November 08 data to 1.97 million, and remains on target to bust above 2 million on release of data for December 2008. The unemployment claimant count soared by 11% for January to 1.28 million, up a shocking 129,000 on the month and confirming that the pace of unemployment is accelerating as the economy fell over the cliff during the fourth quarter.


My original UK unemployment forecast based on July 08 data is for unemployment to rise to just above 2.5 million by April 2010, however the UK economy continues to deteriorate at an alarming rate with projections of a severe recession of more than a 4% GDP contraction implies that the UK is heading for an unemployment rate that could pass above 3,000,000. The jump in claimant count alone for Dec 08 and Jan 09 totaling 226k implies sharply higher unemployment for December and January, this despite the fact that he unemployment statistics are heavily manipulated to under report true unemployment which would be nearly 6 million higher if all those of working age (16 to 64) were included in the data.

The real number of unemployed in the UK now stands at 7.86 million for November as the below graphs illustrate, the actual dip in total inactive is due to net migration as eastern european workers are apparently returning home in the face of increasing difficulties in the UK labour market.

The question that now needs to be answered is how bad will the recession get? My indepth forecast for the UK recession is underway, to receive this in your email in box on the date of publication subscribe to my always free email newsletter.

By Nadeem Walayat
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-09 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis specialises on the housing market and interest rates. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 250 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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