Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - P_Radomski_CFA
2.Fed Balance Sheet QE4EVER - Stock Market Trend Forecast Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3.UK House Prices, Immigration, and Population Growth Mega Trend Forecast - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Gold and Silver Precious Metals Pot Pourri - Rambus_Chartology
5.The Exponential Stocks Bull Market - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Yield Curve Inversion and the Stock Market 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.America's 30 Blocks of Holes - James_Quinn
8.US Presidential Cycle and Stock Market Trend 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Dear Stocks Bull Market: Happy 10 Year Anniversary! - Troy_Bombardia
10.Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2019 May Update - Video - 20th May 19
A Brief History of Financial Entropy - 20th May 19
Gold, MMT, Fiat Money Inflation In France - 20th May 19
WAR - Us versus Them Narrative - 20th May 19
US - Iran War Safe-haven Reasons to Own Gold - 20th May 19
How long does Google have to reference a website? - 20th May 19
Tory Leadership Contest - Will Michael Gove Stab Boris Johnson in the Back Again? - 19th May 19
Stock Market Counter-trend Rally - 19th May 19
Will Stock Market “Sell in May, Go Away” Lead to a Correction… or a Crash? - 19th May 19
US vs. Global Stocks Sector Rotation – What Next? Part 1 - 19th May 19
BrExit Party EarthQuake Could Win it 150 MP's at Next UK General Election! - 18th May 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2019 May Update - 18th May 19
US Economy to Die a Traditional Death… Inflation Is Going to Move Higher - 18th May 19
Trump’s Trade War Is Good for These 3 Dividend Stocks - 18th May 19
GDX Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals Update - 17th May 19
Stock Markets Rally Hard – Is The Volatility Move Over? - 17th May 19
The Use of Technical Analysis for Forex Traders - 17th May 19
Brexit Party Set to Storm EU Parliament Elections - Seats Forecast - 17th May 19
Is the Trade War a Catalyst for Gold? - 17th May 19
This Is a Recession Indicator No One Is Talking About—and It’s Flashing Red - 17th May 19
War! Good or Bad for Stocks? - 17th May 19
How Many Seats Will Brexit Party Win - EU Parliament Elections Forecast 2019 - 16th May 19
It’s Not Technology but the Fed That Is Taking Away Jobs - 16th May 19
Learn to Protect your Forex Trading Capital - 16th May 19
Gold Ratio Charts Offer The Keys to the Bull Market - 16th May 19
Is Someone Secretly Smashing the Stock Market at Night? - 16th May 19
Crude Oil Price Fails At Critical Fibonacci Level - 15th May 19
Strong Stock Market Rally Expected - 15th May 19
US China Trade Impasse Threatens US Lithium, Rare Earth Imports - 15th May 19
Gold Mind Reader's Guide to the Global Markets Galaxy: 'Surreal' - 15th May 19
Trade Wars and Other Black Swan Threats to Your Investments - 15th May 19
Our Long-Anticipated Gold Momentum Rally Begins - 15th May 19
Defense Spending Is Recession Proof - Defense Dividend Stocks - 15th May 19
US China Trade Issues Will Drive Market Trends – PART II - 14th May 19
The Exter Inverted Pyramid of Global Liquidity Credit risk, Liquidity and Gold - 14th May 19
Can You Afford To Ignore These Two Flawless Gold Slide Indicators? - 14th May 19
As cryptocurrency wallets become more popular, will cryptocurrencies replace traditional payments? - 14th May 19
How US Debt Will Reach $40 Trillion by 2025 - 14th May 19
Dangers Beyond a Trade War with China - 14th May 19
eBook - Greatest Tool for Trading? - 14th May 19
Classic Pitfalls for Inexperienced Traders - 14th May 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

U.S. House Prices Analysis and Trend Forecast 2019 to 2021

Stock Market Buying Value on the Dips

Stock-Markets / Investing 2009 Feb 17, 2009 - 11:34 AM GMT

By: Paul_J_Nolte

Stock-Markets Meet the new boss, same as the old boss – we don't get fooled again. Instead of lyrics to a Who song, it could easily be applied to Tim Geithner's unveiling of the new TARP plan. The market reaction is the same as that of previous Treasury chief Paulson. The rolling out of the initial TARP plan saw the markets embark upon a breathtaking dive that culminated with the first market bottom in mid-November. Let's hope that Tuesday's swoon does not follow the same path.

Economically little has changed for the US, although retail sales seemed to improve some, but the prior months were revised lower erasing the indicated gain. The coming week is loaded with housing news, from starts (which could approach a mere 500,000 units annually) to the housing index that has remained at all-time lows. The only bounce the markets saw last week related to news that the administration will be looking at providing some relief for homeowners (or owers) that are behind on their loans. The sound and fury emanating from Washington sounds eerily familiar – just don't stand there do something – anything!

The markets looked to have turned the corner, having bumped up against important resistance at 880 and momentum seemed to be in the bullish camp. That idea got toasted with Tuesdays Dow near 400-point decline – again pushing the SP500 back toward the 800-support line. As we have mentioned in the past, a decline through 800 would open the door to a “formal” retest of the November lows around 750. A break of that level could morph into a full blown crash scenario that may find a resting spot anywhere between 600 and 640, taking away roughly one-third of the gains from the 1982 lows. While possible, we are not yet putting too much weight on that outcome.

Any decline below 750 we will be stepping up our purchases of equities, as they would be valued at levels that have only been seen once or twice in over 80 years – truly a rare buying opportunity. Of course with the markets listening more to Washington than to corporate or economic data now stand the chance of completely losing faith in capitalism, when in fact the loss of corporate morality should be front and center. Will moderation in the markets continue over the coming weeks or will it be a race to the bottom? Could be an interesting end to February.

As we have been projecting for the last few weeks, the bond model has once again flipped negative, indicating interest rates are likely to continue their recent rise into the future. Obvious concerns over the printing of more money, pushing short-rates to zero and tossing shovel-fulls of money into the economy may spur inflationary fears at some point in the future. However, with consumers and financial institutions hanging onto every dollar instead of injecting into the economy, inflationary fears may be overblown at this time. In fact, we are seeing a contraction in the Fed's balance sheet, indicating they are already pulling back on some of the record stimulus injected over the past three months.

By Paul J. Nolte CFA

Copyright © 2009 Paul J. Nolte - All Rights Reserved.
Paul J Nolte is Director of Investments at Hinsdale Associates of Hinsdale. His qualifications include : Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) , and a Member Investment Analyst Society of Chicago.

Disclaimer - The opinions expressed in the Investment Newsletter are those of the author and are based upon information that is believed to be accurate and reliable, but are opinions and do not constitute a guarantee of present or future financial market conditions.

Paul J. Nolte Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules