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FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Stock, Commodities, Futures and Forex Markets Analysis 4th March 2009

Stock-Markets / Futures Trading Mar 04, 2009 - 08:09 AM GMT

By: INO

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 87% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 1052.76 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1179.22 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.


First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1129.05. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1179.22. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1062.00. Second support is the 87% retracement level crossing at 1052.76. The March NASDAQ 100 was up 16.00 pts. at 1088.00 as of 5:58 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by March NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.

The March S&P 500 index was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible near-term. If March extends the decline, support crossing at 655.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 784.47 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 740.73.

Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 784.47. First support is the overnight low crossing at 682.00. Second support is support crossing at 655.00. The March S&P 500 Index was up 12.40 pts. at 701.90 as of 6:00 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the March S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

INTEREST RATES
March T-bonds were lower as it consolidates below the 50% retracement level of the October- December rally crossing at 126-12. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last week's decline, the 62% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 122-22 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 130-12 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 126-11. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 130-12. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 124-11. Second support is the 62% retracement level crossing at 122-22.

ENERGY MARKETS
April crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends Monday's decline, February's low crossing at 37.12 is the next downside target. Closes above last week's high crossing at 45.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 43.57. Second resistance is last week's high crossing at 45.30. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 39.44. Second support is February's low crossing at 37.12.

April heating oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April renews this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 107.35 is the next downside target. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 130.32 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 120.89. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 125.39. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 114.34. Second support is February's low crossing at 113.59.

April unleaded gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that a short-term top might have been posted with last week's high. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 127.14 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above trading range resistance crossing at 141.52 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of this winter's trading range. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 139.43. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 140.61. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 127.14. Second support is Tuesday's low crossing at 127.00.

April Henry natural gas was slightly lower overnight due to profit taking but remains above the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.145. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.352 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted. If April renews this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 3.390 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.352. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 4.922. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 3.916. Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.390.

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CURRENCIES
The March Dollar was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's rally, November's high crossing at 89.74 is the next upside target. Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 85.81 are needed to confirm that the rally off December's low has come to an end. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 89.71. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 89.74. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 88.06. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 87.32.

The March Euro was lower overnight and spiked below February's low crossing at 125.080. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 123.630 is the next downside target. Closes above last Monday's high crossing at 129.890 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 126.916. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 127.534. First support is the overnight low crossing at 124.560. Second support is November's low crossing at 123.630.

The March British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends Monday's decline, January's low crossing at 1.3492 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1.4660 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4273. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4370. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.3990. Second support is January low crossing at 1.3492.

The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews this year's decline, the 87% retracement level crossing at .8370 is the next downside target. Closes above last Monday's high crossing at .8728 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .8552. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .8573. First support is the reaction low crossing at .8416. Second support is the 87% retracement level crossing at .8370.

The March Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline, December's low crossing at 76.93 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.85 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 79.16. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.85. First support is the overnight low crossing at 77.09. Second support is December's low crossing at 76.93.

The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight and has renewed last week's decline to test the 62% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at .10058. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at .9751 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .10642 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .10332. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .10642. First support is the overnight low crossing at .10053. Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at .9751.

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PRECIOUS METALS
April gold was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week's decline, the 38% retracement level of the October-February rally crossing at 886.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 955.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 943.90. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 955.90. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 905.70. Second support is the 38% retracement level crossing at 886.70.

May silver was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If May extends this week's decline, the 38% retracement level of the October-February rally crossing at 12.358 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 13.561 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.461. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 13.561. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 12.430. Second support is the 38% retracement level crossing at 12.358.

May copper was higher overnight as it extends Tuesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's rally, trading range resistance crossing at 166.50 is the next upside target. Closes above trading range resistance crossing at 166.50 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of this year's trading range. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 152.75 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. Closes below trading range support crossing at 139.20 would open the door for a larger-degree decline into spring. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 163.75. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 166.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 153.70. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 152.75.

FOOD & FIBER
May coffee posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold diverging but are neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If May extends Monday's decline, December's low crossing at 10.500 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.488 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.

May cocoa posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday but remains below the 62% retracement level of the October-
February crossing at 22.95. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold diverging but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends today's decline, the 75% retracement level of the October-February crossing at 21.62 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.66 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.

May sugar closed slightly higher on Tuesday due to short covering as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 12.34 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.26 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.

May cotton posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, November's low crossing at 40.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 45.98 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted

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GRAINS Agricultural Commodities Analysis

May corn was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 3.31 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above last week's high crossing at 3.80 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.60 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.68. First support is Monday's low crossing at 3.44 1/2. Second support is the 87% retracement level crossing at 3.31 1/4.

May wheat was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 4.84 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.38 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.20 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.38. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.98 1/2. Second support is December's low crossing at 4.84 1/2.

May Kansas City Wheat closed down 1 3/4-cents at 5.45 1/4.

Kansas City Wheat closed lower on Tuesday as it extends this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.33 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above gap resistance crossing at 5.81 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.59. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.74 1/4. First support is today's low crossing at 5.41 1/2. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.33 1/4.

May Minneapolis wheat was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline, which led to a close below the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.93. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.72 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.15 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level crossing at 5.93. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.02 3/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 5.87 1/2. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.72 3/4.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX
March soybeans were higher overnight and trading above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.87. The high-range overnight close sets the stage for a May soybeans were higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. The high-range overnight close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 8.21 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.69 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. However, it will take closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.17 1/4 to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

May soybean meal was higher overnight as it rebounds off support marked by the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 259.10. The high-range close overnight set the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 248.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 268.30 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. However, it will take closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 283.90 to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

May soybean oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Overnight strength in the energy markets supported the short covering bounce. The high- range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews last month's decline, December's low crossing at 28.89 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 32.57 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted.

LIVESTOCK
April hogs closed up $0.57 at $60.85.

April hogs closed higher on Tuesday as it extended last Friday's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends today's rally, gap resistance crossing at 63.35 is the next upside target.

Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 59.54 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 61.35. Second resistance is gap resistance crossing at 63.35. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 59.54. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 56.90.
May bellies closed down $0.55 at $78.55.

May bellies closed lower on Wednesday due to profit taking but remains above the 10-day moving average crossing at 78.30. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.11 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted. If April renews this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 70.39 is the next downside target.

April cattle closed up $0.27 at 84.22.

April cattle posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 84.51. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends Monday's decline, February's low crossing at 82.40 is the next downside target. If April renews last week's rally, gap resistance crossing at 86.90 is the next upside target.

April feeder cattle closed up $0.45 at $92.80.

April Feeder cattle closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends last week's rally, gap resistance crossing at 95.25 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday's gap crossing at 91.90 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market

By INO.com

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