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FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Stock, Commodities, Futures and Forex Markets Analysis 6th March 2009

Stock-Markets / Futures Trading Mar 06, 2009 - 08:34 AM GMT

By: INO

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extends Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be near. If however, March extends this month's decline, the 87% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 1052.76 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1165.67 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.


First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1112.57. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1165.67. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1062.00. Second support is the 87% retracement level crossing at 1052.76. The March NASDAQ 100 was down 2.00 pts. at 1081.00 as of 6:00 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by March NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.

The March S&P 500 index was lower overnight as it extends Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be near. If however, March extends the decline, support crossing at 655.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 769.78 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted.

First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 723.49. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 769.78. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 676.50. Second support is support crossing at 655.00. The March S&P 500 Index was down 2.70 pts. at 683.40 as of 6:06 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the March S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

INTEREST RATES
March T-bonds were higher as it extends Thursday's rally above the 20-day moving average crossing at 125-27. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 130-12 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 123-04 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 127-30. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 130-12. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 125-
27. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 125-12.

ENERGY MARKETS
April crude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates above the 20-day moving average crossing at 42.23. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends Wednesday's rally, February's high crossing at 47.99 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 39.44 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 45.70. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 47.99. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 42.60. Second support is Tuesday's low crossing at 39.44.

April heating oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but neutral hinting that a low might be in or is near. If April renews this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 107.35 is the next downside target. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 130.32 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.68. Second resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 130.32. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 114.34. Second support is February's low crossing at 113.59.

April unleaded gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are still possible near-term. Closes above trading range resistance crossing at 141.52 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of this winter's trading range. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.69 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 139.43. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 140.61. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.69. Second support is Tuesday's low crossing at 127.00.

April Henry natural gas was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.300 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted. If April renews this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 3.390 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.300. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 4.922. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 4.060. Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 3.916.

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CURRENCIES
The March Dollar was sharply lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a double top with November's high might have been posted with Wednesday's high. Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 85.81 are needed to confirm that the rally off December's low has come to an end. If March extends this winter's rally, November's high crossing at 89.74 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 89.71. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 89.74. First support is the overnight low crossing at 87.98. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 87.55.

The March Euro was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidated some of Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above last Monday's high crossing at 129.890 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 123.630 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 127.384. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 129.890. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 124.560. Second support is November's low crossing at 123.630.

The March British Pound was higher due to short covering overnight as it continues to rebound off Monday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1.4660 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends Monday's decline, January's low crossing at 1.3492 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4337. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.4660. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.3990. Second support is January low crossing at 1.3492.

The March Swiss Franc was sharply higher overnight as it extends the rebound off Wednesday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last Monday's high crossing at .8728 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this year's decline, the 87% retracement level crossing at .8370 is the next downside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at .8710. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at .8728. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at .8441. Second support is the reaction low crossing at .8416.

The March Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.54 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline, December's low crossing at 76.93 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 78.82. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.54. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 77.09. Second support is December's low crossing at 76.93.

The March Japanese Yen was sharply higher overnight due to short covering and traded above the 10-day moving average crossing at .10248. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .10561 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at .9751 is the next downside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at .10355. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .10561. First support is Thursday's low crossing at .10032. Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at .9751.

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PRECIOUS METALS
April gold was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April renews this week's decline, the 38% retracement level of the October-February rally crossing at 886.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 946.20 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 944.20. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 946.20. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 900.40. Second support is the 38% retracement level crossing at 886.70.

May silver was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.530 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews this week's decline, the 38% retracement level of the October-February rally crossing at 12.358 is the next downside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 13.505. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.530. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 12.430. Second support is the 38% retracement level crossing at 12.358.

May copper was higher overnight as it poised to renew Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's rally, the 25% retracement level of the 2008 decline crossing at 192.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 155.49 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 173.70. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level crossing at 192.28. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 155.49. Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 147.70.

FOOD & FIBER
May coffee posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday ending a two-day short covering bounce. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but are turning bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 11.091 would temper the near- term bearish outlook in the market. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.423 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May renews Monday's decline, December's low crossing at 10.500 is the next downside target.

May cocoa closed lower on Thursday and below the 62% retracement level of the October-February crossing at 22.95 as it ended a two-day short covering bounce. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends Monday's decline, the 75% retracement level of the October-February crossing at 21.62 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.21 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.

May sugar closed lower on Thursday and below the 10-day moving average crossing at 13.18. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish warning bulls to use caution before going long too soon. If May extends this winter's rally, fib resistance crossing at 13.98 is the next upside target. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at 13.34 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.

May cotton closed lower on Thursday as it renewed this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, November's low crossing at 40.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 45.10 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted.

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GRAINS Agricultural Commodities Analysis

May corn was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. A weaker Dollar along with higher energy markets were the driving factors behind the overnight rebound. The mid- range close sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above last week's high crossing at 3.80 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the December- January rally crossing at 3.31 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.66 3/4. Second resistance is last week's high crossing at 3.80 1/2. First support is Monday's low crossing at 3.44 1/2. Second support is the 87% retracement level crossing at 3.31 1/4.

May wheat was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.34 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 4.84 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 5.28. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.34. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.98 1/2. Second support is December's low crossing at 4.84 1/2.

May Kansas City Wheat closed down 7-cents at 5.60.

Kansas City Wheat posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above gap resistance crossing at 5.81 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.33 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.71 3/4. Second resistance is gap resistance crossing at 5.81 1/2. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 5.41 1/2. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.33 1/4.

May Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight due to short covering but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.02 3/4. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.13 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.72 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.13. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.21 1/2. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 5.87 1/2. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.72 3/4.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX
May soybeans were higher overnight as it consolidated some of Thursday's decline. The mid-range overnight close sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.05 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 8.21 3/4 is the next downside target.

May soybean meal was slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates above the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 259.10. The low-range close overnight set the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 248.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-
day moving average crossing at 266.40 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. However, it will take closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 279.80 to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

May soybean oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. Overnight strength in the energy markets supported the overnight rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If May renews last month's decline, December's low crossing at 28.89 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 32.57 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 31.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.78. First support is Monday's low crossing at 30.10. Second support is February's low crossing at 29.88.

LIVESTOCK
April hogs closed up $0.10 at $62.42.

April hogs closed higher on Thursday as it extended this week's breakout above the 20-day moving average. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week's rally, gap resistance crossing at 63.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 59.87 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 62.70. Second resistance is gap resistance crossing at 63.35. First support is Wednesday's gap crossing at 61.35. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.70.

May bellies closed up $1.35 at $82.90.

May bellies closed higher on Thursday as it extended this week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 85.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 78.77 would confirm that a top has been posted.
April cattle closed down $0.75 at 83.90.

April cattle closed lower on Thursday and renewed this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends today's decline, February's low crossing at 82.40 is the next downside target. If April renews the rally off February's low, gap resistance crossing at 86.90 is the next upside target.
April feeder cattle closed down $1.02 at $92.82.

April Feeder cattle closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.52. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April renews last week's rally, gap resistance crossing at 95.25 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday's gap crossing at 91.90 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.

By INO.com

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