Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Could Gold Price Reach $7,000 by 2030? - 6th Aug 20
Bananas for All! Keep Dancing… FOMC - 6th Aug 20
How to Do Bets During This Time - 6th Aug 20
How to develop your stock trading strategy - 6th Aug 20
Stock Investors What to do if Trump Bans TikTok - 5th Aug 20
Gold Trifecta of Key Signals for Gold Mining Stocks - 5th Aug 20
Stock Market Uptrend Continues? - 4th Aug 20
The Dimensions of Covid-19: The Hong Kong Flu Redux - 4th Aug 20
High Yield Junk Bonds Are Hot Again -- Despite Warning Signs - 4th Aug 20
Gold Stocks Autumn Rally - 4th Aug 20
“Government Sachs” Is Worried About the Federal Reserve Note - 4th Aug 20
Gold Miners Still Pushing That Cart of Rocks Up Hill - 4th Aug 20
UK Government to Cancel Christmas - Crazy Covid Eid 2020! - 4th Aug 20
Covid-19 Exposes NHS Institutional Racism Against Black and Asian Staff and Patients - 4th Aug 20
How Sony Is Fueling the Computer Vision Boom - 3rd Aug 20
Computer Gaming System Rig Top Tips For 6 Years Future Proofing Build Spec - 3rd Aug 20
Cornwwall Bude Caravan Park Holidays 2020 - Look Inside Holiday Resort Caravan - 3rd Aug 20
UK Caravan Park Holidays 2020 Review - Hoseasons Cayton Bay North East England - 3rd Aug 20
Best Travel Bags for 2020 Summer Holidays , Back Sling packs, water proof, money belt and tactical - 3rd Aug 20
Precious Metals Warn Of Increased Volatility Ahead - 2nd Aug 20
The Key USDX Sign for Gold and Silver - 2nd Aug 20
Corona Crisis Will Have Lasting Impact on Gold Market - 2nd Aug 20
Gold & Silver: Two Pictures - 1st Aug 20
The Bullish Case for Stocks Isn't Over Yet - 1st Aug 20
Is Gold Price Action Warning Of Imminent Monetary Collapse - Part 2? - 1st Aug 20
Will America Accept the World's Worst Pandemic Response Government - 1st Aug 20
Stock Market Technical Patterns, Future Expectations and More – Part II - 1st Aug 20
Trump White House Accelerating Toward a US Dollar Crisis - 31st Jul 20
Why US Commercial Real Estate is Set to Get Slammed - 31st Jul 20
Gold Price Blows Through Upside Resistance - The Chase Is On - 31st Jul 20
Is Crude Oil Price Setting Up for a Waterfall Decline? - 31st Jul 20
Stock Market Technical Patterns, Future Expectations and More - 30th Jul 20
Why Big Money Is Already Pouring Into Edge Computing Tech Stocks - 30th Jul 20
Economic and Geopolitical Worries Fuel Gold’s Rally - 30th Jul 20
How to Finance an Investment Property - 30th Jul 20
I Hate Banks - Including Goldman Sachs - 29th Jul 20
NASDAQ Stock Market Double Top & Price Channels Suggest Pending Price Correction - 29th Jul 20
Silver Price Surge Leaves Naysayers in the Dust - 29th Jul 20
UK Supermarket Covid-19 Shop - Few Masks, Lack of Social Distancing (Tesco) - 29th Jul 20
Budgie Clipped Wings, How Long Before it Can Fly Again? - 29th Jul 20
How To Take Advantage Of Tesla's 400% Stock Surge - 29th Jul 20
Gold Makes Record High and Targets $6,000 in New Bull Cycle - 28th Jul 20
Gold Strong Signal For A Secular Bull Market - 28th Jul 20
Anatomy of a Gold and Silver Precious Metals Bull Market - 28th Jul 20
Shopify Is Seizing an $80 Billion Pot of Gold - 28th Jul 20
Stock Market Minor Correction Underway - 28th Jul 20
Why College Is Never Coming Back - 27th Jul 20
Stocks Disconnect from Economy, Gold Responds - 27th Jul 20
Silver Begins Big Upside Rally Attempt - 27th Jul 20
The Gold and Silver Markets Have Changed… What About You? - 27th Jul 20
Google, Apple And Amazon Are Leading A $30 Trillion Assault On Wall Street - 27th Jul 20
This Stock Market Indicator Reaches "Lowest Level in Nearly 20 Years" - 26th Jul 20
New Wave of Economic Stimulus Lifts Gold Price - 26th Jul 20
Stock Market Slow Grind Higher Above the Early June Stock Highs - 26th Jul 20
How High Will Silver Go? - 25th Jul 20
If You Own Gold, Look Out Below - 25th Jul 20
Crude Oil and Energy Sets Up Near Major Resistance – Breakdown Pending - 25th Jul 20
FREE Access to Premium Market Forecasts by Elliott Wave International - 25th Jul 20
The Promise of Silver as August Approaches: Accumulation and Conversation - 25th Jul 20
The Silver Bull Gateway is at Hand - 24th Jul 20
The Prospects of S&P 500 Above the Early June Highs - 24th Jul 20
How Silver Could Surpass Its All-Time High - 24th Jul 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

U.S. Dollar Expected to Extend Losses Ahead of Negative GDP Data

Currencies / Forex Trading Mar 26, 2009 - 04:13 AM GMT

By: ForexPros

Currencies Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA violent day was had by all today as the USD whipsawed in big ranges before ending the day mixed. Comments by Treasury Secretary Geithner combined with better-than-expected US data combined to confuse traders in both directions but USD bears appear to prevail into the end of the New York session. Speaking on the possibility raised by the Chinese of a one-world economic currency were deflected by Geithner into a possibility of increasing SDR money through the IMF were misinterpreted on face-value throwing the USD into a big slide against the majors extending lows back under important intraday S/R; the Greenback recovering against some pairs but not others as the day wore on.

GBP high prints at 1.4736 went unchallenged in New York although a big-figure rally tagged stops in the crosses; the GBP falling after the London fix to 1.4513 despite RHS interest at the fix.

EURO rallied to a high print at 1.3651 before dropping back under the 1.3500 handle in less than 30 minutes only to regain the 1.3600 handle mid-day for a short time; the rate ends around 1.3570 area in thin trade after both sides got baked on the volatility. Traders note that despite the large swings in price the rate is firm into the close and expect another round of sellers to try for the 1.3300 handle and buyers to try for the 1.3700 handle overnight suggesting more high volatility is due. Aggressive traders can look to buy a dip in the rate back under the 1.3500 handle in my view.

USD/JPY held firm all day near the 97.90 area occasionally poking its nose over 98.00 to look for stops or offers but fell back to lows late in the session ending around 97.10 area; the early dip to low prints at 96.91 did not find the rumored large stops resting under the market but no doubt there will be a probe for them overnight.

USD/CHF low prints at 1.1168 were unchallenged during the day but the rate dropped to the 1.1170 area more than once before ending around the 1.1200 area; a secure close under the 200 day MA of 1.1209 will likely discourage the bulls near-term. Traders also note that the rate had the lowest close in two-months suggesting the SNB intervention has failed (as expected) and more losses to end the week are likely.Aggressive traders can add to open shorts in the rate on any strength in my view.

USD/CAD is holding gains near daily highs of 1.2358 failing to extend losses on the whipsaw early in the day; low prints at 1.2218 were quickly bought but the rate still holds below the 100 day MA seen as eventually bearish for the pair. In my view, the resulting whipsaw on the Geithner comments clearly shows that traders are nervous and unclear in overall USD direction. I think traders need to accept that USD strength is probably going to be challenged to end the month and further losses are likely.

Look for the Greenback to extend losses the next 24 hours or so; it should get quiet ahead of US GDP tomorrow with a negative number well factored in.


Resistance 3: 1.4880, Resistance 2: 1.4820/30, Resistance 1: 1.4780

Latest New York: 1.4540, Support 1: 1.4450, Support 2: 1.4280, Support 3: 1.4050


Rate two-way and violent, likely stops under 1.4600 area cleared with bids around 1.4550 taking the other side. Lows late in the day argue that the toolbox signal valid; aggressive traders could lighten up on longs near-term. Traders report large names on the dip and the rate is likely to follow EURO higher if EURO can rally. Overhead resistance now approaching the 1.5000 area with some tech resistance around 1.4880. Support likely on the dip to 14440/50 area. Traders report stops cleared over the 1.4710/30 area but expect another try from early shorts. The door is open to a rally back to the 1.5000 area. Some in-range stops driving some trade into the lows but traders feel the lows likely remain secure. The volume needs to come up and I think the shorts have yet to bail as a group; that may be starting in earnest now. Traders report stops in-range adding for two-way action. Two-way action continues suggesting that shorts are aggressively adding and longs are trying to find a bottom. Next upside target is 1.4800 area, downside is near support at 1.4450 area

Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)

26th-31st GBP Nationwide HPI m/m

5:30am GBP Retail Sales m/m

5:30am GBP Revised Business Investment q/q


Resistance 3: 1.3980, Resistance 2: 1.3820, Resistance 1: 1.3740

Latest New York: 1.3591, Support 1: 1.3420, Support 2: 1.3350, Support 3: 1.3300


Rate dips on news, clears stops under 1.3450/60 and sovereign bids seen into the lows. Rate makes highs in NY after the news suggesting the rate is attractive on dips and shorts are weak. Action remains two-way; is not advancing as aggressively yet. Stops likely building above the 1.3740 area. Upside stops in-range likely cleared in size above the 1.3620 area today but offers cap ahead of larger stops said to be over the weekly highs. If the rate can close above 1.3650/60 area more upside is likely. Overhead resistance above 1.3350 area negated so a pullback to there would also be a strong buy. Traders note big names on the buy side on dips overnight; Asian sovereigns seen buying around the 1.3480 area overnight. Bulls are likely in control of the market and any significant pullback is a buying opportunity in my view. Expect two-way action.

Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)

3:00am EUR GfK German Consumer Climate

5:00am EUR M3 Money Supply y/y

5:00am EUR Private Loans y/y

Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6)

Analysis by: - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

Forexpros offers the most definitive Forex portal on the web. It contains industry leading market analysis, up-to-the minute news and advanced trading
tools which provides brokers, traders and everyone involved in the financial market with an all-round guide to Forex.

Copyright © 2009 by All rights reserved.

Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

ForexPros Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules