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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: US Bonds

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Friday, April 25, 2014

Bond Market Investing - Not All Debt Is Created Equal / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Don_Miller

Optimal diversification: We all want it. Diversification is, after all, the holy grail of portfolio management. Our senior research analyst Andrey Dashkov has said that many times before, and he echoes that refrain in his editorial guest spot below.

A brief note before I hand over the reins to Andrey. The last time the market tanked, many of my friends suffered huge losses. They all thought their portfolios were well diversified. Many held several mutual funds and thought their plans were foolproof. Sad to say, those funds dropped in tandem with the rapidly falling market. Our readers need not suffer a similar fate.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, February 13, 2014

A Second Look at U.S. Savings Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Don_Miller

If you remember bond drives in school, please raise your hand. There are still a lot of us out there. I recall my teacher holding up a US Savings Bond, encouraging us to tell our parents to buy them. She went to great lengths emphasizing that they were the "the safest investment on earth."

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, February 01, 2014

U.S. Treasury Bonds Defying Dire Forecasts / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Sy_Harding

There was no doubt about it in 2013. If the Fed were ever to cut back on its five years of massive QE bond-buying, bond prices would collapse.

It made sense. Of the $85 billion a month of QE, $40 billion was in mortgage-backed securities, and $45 billion in Treasury bonds.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Continuing Low Interest Rates Environment for Long term U.S. Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

Last week Greg Weldon made the case for rising interest rates on US treasuries. This week Lacy Hunt offers us the case for a continued low-interest-rate environment for long-term treasuries. This is one of the most fascinating tugs-of-war in the investment world today. I’ve made the argument that we are in a deflationary deleveraging world for quite some time to come, or at least until the velocity of money turns around. Lacy makes that point, too, and offers some insights into the velocity of money. This is a fascinating Outside the Box, and I won’t spoil it by stealing any more of Lacy’s thunder.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 10, 2013

10-Year U.S. Treasury Note Trades Near 6%; If Taper Is For Real / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pento

The most important question for investors at this time is to determine how high interest rates will rise; if indeed the Fed's artificial suppression of yields is truly about to end. To accomplish this we first must consider where yields last were outside of central bank debt monetization, a recession and the Eurozone debt crisis. Then, we need to factor in the increased risks to inflation and solvency, in order to arrive at an appropriate estimation for the level of interest rates during 2014.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 10, 2013

Why What’s Happening in the U.S. Bond Market Now Is So Important to Stock Investors / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: InvestmentContrarian

George Leong writes: Taper or no taper? When? How much? These are the worries that are currently driving tensions in the stock market on a daily basis. As I wrote in a previous article, no one seems to care that corporate revenue growth is muted and consumers aren’t spending.

Last week, we saw jobs market data that helps support the Federal Reserve’s reasons to begin tapering its bond buying program.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, December 01, 2013

Janet Yellen, U.S. Interest Rates and Market Psychology at Major Market Turns / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI

Janet Yellen just moved closer to her place in history when the Senate Banking Committee approved her nomination to lead the Federal Reserve. The full Senate is expected to confirm. If so, she will be the first chairwoman in the central bank's 100 year history.

But when her term concludes, gender may be secondary to the narrative about her time at the helm. The larger focus could be that Yellen was at the helm of economic disaster.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, November 29, 2013

How to Find Safe Yields in an Interest Rate Sensitive World / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Don_Miller

While Mr. Bernanke's policies have taken a toll on seniors and savers, his mere mention of the word "taper" last spring did us all a favor. It sent interest rates rising, bond and stock prices tumbling, and in the days that followed, the Fed went into damage control—quite a lot of hubbub for something the Fed was only pondering. What happens when they announce they actually did something?

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

How to Profit from Fed’s Easy Money Mistake by Shorting U.S. Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: DailyGainsLetter

Mohammad Zulfiqar writes: The Federal Reserve has been very accommodative. Its goals are very simple: it wants economic growth in the U.S. economy. As a result, the Federal Reserve is taking extraordinary measures, printing $85.0 billion a month and using it to buy U.S. bonds and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). The hope is that the money will go to the banks, which will lend it to consumers who then spend it, leading to economic growth.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, November 17, 2013

U.S. Treasury Bond Markets Snapshot Update / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short: What’s New: I’ve updated the charts below through today’s close. The yield on the 10-year note finished the week at 2.71%, which is 128 bps above its 1.43% all-time closing low on July 25th of last year but 13 bps below its interim closing high on September 5th.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, November 15, 2013

Keep Your Eye on Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Browne

Last month, Americans were transfixed by the amateur theatrics undertaken by the Washington political establishment in connection with the debt ceiling crisis. The bad faith, poor tactics and wholesale avoidance of reality were offered by all players in very large doses. When the Republican leadership finally capitulated (thereby bringing down the curtain on the tawdry production), it soon became apparent that sound and fury had signified nothing except another exercise in can kicking. Public approval of Congress sank to the lowest level on record, and has only dissipated due to the unmitigated disaster of the Obamacare launch. But as bad as domestic approval has become, the behavior of the U.S. government has played far worse internationally.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, November 03, 2013

U.S. Treasury Yields in Perspective / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short: Let’s have a look at a long-term perspective on Treasury yields. The chart below shows the 10-Year Constant Maturity yield since 1962 along with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) and inflation. The range has been astonishing. The stagflation that set in after the 1973 Oil Embargo was finally ended after Paul Volcker raised the FFR to 20.06%.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, October 03, 2013

U.S. Interest Rates - Three Days Away From a Market Decision / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Brian_Bloom

By Monday night, October 7th 2013, the first chart below will very likely show a resolution. Technically, the probabilities favour an upside break of the 10 year yield. Note how the MACD histograms have been rising

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 01, 2013

Looking for a Bounce in the “ten-year” U.S. Treasury Note / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Ed_Carlson

TNX is the symbol for the interest rate on the ten-year, US Treasury note. One observation which has kept me from getting bullish about TNX (despite the break out above the long-term trendline) is the level of the red line in the chart below. The red line represents the distance between TNX and its 200 day moving average.  Since last July it has far exceeded its highs at past tops in TNX (which is probably long-term bullish) but, not only did that level appear stretched, but it failed to confirm the higher highs in TNX seen in August and September.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Hidden Panic at the U.S. Fed as Flash Trading Hits Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jim_Willie_CB

The USTreasury Bond market breakdown is in progress, all part of the general USDollar global rejection that is taking the world by storm. Of course, residents inside the US Dome do not notice, since they only perceive it as the native currency. From conversations with common folk, discussions with investor types, and general observations for over 20 years, the Jackass belief is that only 5% to 10% of Americans are aware that the USDollar serves as a global financial instrument in contracts, the basis for trade settlement (mostly crude oil), with some extremely important consequences. A major development has begun, much like a metabolic life support system in concert with the Interest Rate Swap derivative contract. For two years or more, the USTreasury Bond market has been deeply dependent upon artificial demand derived from the derivatives. Entire bond rallies have been fabricated with 50:1 leverage, fully supported by the financial network propaganda. Without derivative flying buttress support, the giant USTBond Tower would have collapsed a couple of years ago. Now a new support system has been begun, a dangerous musical chairs long entrenched in the stock market. It has entered the bond market finally. Flash Trading!!

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Interest-Rates

Monday, September 23, 2013

Madoff’s Ponzi Scheme Looks Like a Joke Compared to U.S. Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Profit_Confidential

Michael Lombardi writes: The “Bernie” Madoff name became famous while the stock market was falling during the credit and financial crisis. He was responsible for running one of the biggest Ponzi schemes in U.S. history—if I recall correctly, it was a $65.0-billion scheme. But as the scam got bigger, Madoff couldn’t go on. He was caught, prosecuted, and sentenced to more than 100 years in jail.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 18, 2013

US Treasury Bonds Corrective Rally Could Forecast / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gregor_Horvat

I hate to say this again, but major pairs on the FX market place still have a very unclear price action and no direction at all on the intra-day basis. It’s probably “calm before the storm” ahead of highly anticipated FOMC press conference of the last few years, when Bernanke could announce tapering.  Statement will be out at 18:00GMT and press conference will be scheduled 30 minutes later. So until then we may not see a lot of price action today.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, September 13, 2013

Which Way Will the US Federal Reserve Jump? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Submissions

Adam Green writes: The next 2-day monthly conference meeting of the US Federal Reserve is scheduled to begin on Tuesday, 17th September. Speculation has now been rampant for months about when the Fed will commence tapering its influential stimulus policies and what impact such actions would have on the financial markets. This article sets out to define the most likely possibilities. Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Bond Markets Are No Longer Safe Havens From Stock Market Risks / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI

Bond yields spike to a 2-year high

Two months ago, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said he was puzzled by the upward surge in Treasury yields. And bond yields are even higher now, reaching a two-year high on August 15.

But the rise in bond yields - and the concomitant drop in bond prices since they move inversely to yields - is no surprise to EWI analysts. EWI's June 2012 Special Report on bonds noted: "If rates do begin to rise as we expect, most observers will probably be fooled. Bulls on the economy may take the new trend as a sign of economic expansion."

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, September 03, 2013

Bond Markets Offer No Protection From Stock Market Risk / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI

Bond yields spike to a 2-year high

Two months ago, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said he was puzzled by the upward surge in Treasury yields. And bond yields are even higher now, reaching a two-year high on August 15.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


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