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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Commodities

Wednesday, March 20, 2019

Gold Stocks Outperform Gold but Not Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

In recent weeks we noted the bullish outlook for the stock market.

Friday the S&P 500 as well as ACWX (global equity ETF ex US stocks) closed above resistance and made higher highs.

Not surprisingly, as US and global equities have avoided a bear market (for the time being), precious metals have weakened. It’s not a surprise that as Gold failed to breakout both the S&P 500 and global equities (ACWX) held their 200-day moving averages and then made a higher high.

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Commodities

Monday, March 18, 2019

Hurdles for Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

One problem for the gold stock sector was highlighted here and here evidently a little too obnoxiously for the liking of some bugs. The problem was the aggressive bullhorn sounds emanating from every orifice of the gold community the minute the charts broke upward into an obviously bullish technical state.

But while the HUI/Gold ratio has been a distinctly positive technical indicator and many bullish gold stock charts populated the sector, we had noted back in December that gold’s hysterically overbought performance vs. broad stocks was due to pull back, hopefully in an orderly consolidation. Well, the relief has dragged on and the ratio of gold to SPX and its global fellows has been consolidating alright.

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Commodities

Sunday, March 17, 2019

Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The major gold miners are grinding higher in a solid upleg, fueling growing interest in this small contrarian sector.  They’ve mostly finished reporting their fourth-quarter results, revealing how they are really faring fundamentally.  Collectively the world’s biggest gold miners continue to face serious challenges, which often stem from declining production.  That makes stock picking more important than ever for investment success.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders.  They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing corporations’ underlying hard fundamental realities.

While 10-Qs with filing deadlines of 40 days after quarter-ends are required for normal quarters, 10-K annual reports are instead mandated after quarters ending fiscal years.  Most gold miners logically run their accounting on calendar years, so they issue 10-Ks after Q4s.  Since these annual reports are larger and must be audited by independent CPAs, their filing deadlines are extended to 60 days after quarter-ends.

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Commodities

Saturday, March 02, 2019

Gold Stocks Spring Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have been climbing higher on balance, enjoying a solid upleg that is gathering steam.  That’s fueling improving sentiment, driving more interest in this small contrarian sector.  This gold-stock upleg is likely to grow in coming months, partially because of very-favorable spring seasonals.  The gold stocks’ second-strongest seasonal rally of the year typically unfolds between mid-March to early June.

Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year.  While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals.  We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions.  The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.

Gold stocks exhibit strong seasonality because their price action mirrors that of their dominant primary driver, gold.  Gold’s seasonality generally isn’t driven by supply fluctuations like grown commodities experience, as its mined supply remains fairly steady year-round.  Instead gold’s major seasonality is demand-driven, with global investment demand varying dramatically depending on the time in the calendar year.

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Commodities

Wednesday, February 20, 2019

HUI Update…A Treat for Long Suffering Gold Traders / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Rambus_Chartology

Below is the combo chart which has the HUI on top, the UUP in the middle and GLD on the bottom. Everything looks fine.

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 19, 2019

Gold Stocks are Following This Historical Template / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Roughly one year ago and prior to that we observed that the gold stocks could be following the recovery template from what we deemed a “mega bear market.”

We define that as a bear market that is over two and a half years in time and over 80% in price. It cuts both ways.

The gold stocks from 2011 to January 2016 had declined more than 80% and for more than four years. It was a textbook mega bear market.

The sharp recovery in 2016 quickly faded and left us wondering if there was a historical comparison.

Turns out, there are three strong and relevant comparisons.

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Commodities

Friday, February 15, 2019

Gold Stocks Mega Mergers Are Bad for Shareholders / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The world’s two biggest gold miners both announced mega-mergers over the past 5 months or so.  These huge deals briefly garnered some interest in the usually-forgotten gold-stock sector, and fleeting praise from Wall Street analysts.  But gold-stock mega-mergers are bad news for gold-miner shareholders on all sides.  They reveal the serious struggles of major gold miners, and really retard future upside in their stocks.

For decades the largest gold miners in the world have been Newmont Mining (NEM) and Barrick Gold (ABX).  These behemoths have long dwarfed all their peers in operational scope.  While the gold miners are in the process of reporting Q4’18 results now, their latest complete set remains Q3’18’s.  As after every quarterly earnings season, I analyzed them in depth for the major gold miners of GDX back in mid-November.

The GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF is the world’s leading and dominant gold-stock investment vehicle.  In Q3 alone NEM and ABX mined a staggering 1286k and 1149k ounces of gold!  To put this in perspective, the average of the next 8 largest gold miners rounding out the top 10 was just 508k ounces.  Newmont and Barrick have long been in a league of their own, with commensurate market capitalizations.

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Commodities

Tuesday, February 12, 2019

Key Support Levels for Gold Miners & Gold Juniors / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Gold stocks have to do more to confirm they are in a new bull market.

Sure, they’ve surged above key moving average resistance and breadth has improved.

However, the gold stocks have not yet broken the pattern of lower highs and breadth, while improved, is not at bull market levels yet. Let’s review where things currently stand.

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Commodities

Sunday, February 10, 2019

Gold Stocks Gather Steam / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold stocks’ young upleg is gathering steam, marching steadily to higher lows and higher highs.  These bullish technicals are gradually improving sentiment, fueling mounting interest in this contrarian sector.  That’s helping the gold stocks regain lost ground relative to gold, the driver of their profits.  Fundamentals are growing more favorable as gold itself powers higher.  All this portends much-bigger gold-stock gains coming.

Despite a strong rebound upleg in recent months, the gold miners’ stocks are still flying under the radars of most speculators and investors.  They aren’t aware the gold stocks are running again, and likely don’t realize how massive gold-stock uplegs can grow.  That’s unfortunate, because the biggest gains are won early in young uplegs before they are universally recognized.  Buying low early on is the key to multiplying wealth.

The most-popular gold-stock benchmark these days is the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF.  It was launched way back in May 2006, giving it a first-mover advantage that has grown into an insurmountable lead.  This week GDX’s net assets of $10.5b were a colossal 52.4x larger than the next-biggest 1x-long major-gold-miners-ETF competitor!  GDX is the lens through which most traders now view gold-stock fortunes.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 23, 2019

The Power of Gold Diversification / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Michael_J_Kosares

As a member of the British parliament in 1999, Sir Peter Tapsell, who passed away this past August, argued vigorously to keep the government from selling off over half of the country’s gold reserves. Previously, in the 1980s, Tapsell had managed a gold bullion fund, “valued at many hundreds of millions of dollars for the Sultan of Brunei, Sir Omar Saifuddin” – at the time one of the single largest private gold hoards on Earth. Though his argument before the House of Commons failed to stop the sales, it goes down as one of the most eloquent appeals ever made on the merits of gold ownership for nation states and individuals alike.

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 22, 2019

A Weakening Global Expansion Amid Growing Risks. Will Gold Benefit? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Thousands of political, business and cultural leaders are heading now towards Davos, Switzerland, to attend the World Economic Forum. On the eve of the world’s biggest annual gathering of the rich and powerful, the International Monetary Fund released its newest world economic outlook. What are the forecasts – and their implications for the gold market?

Global Expansion Weakens

Well, the title of the IMF’s update is telling: “A Weakening Global Expansion”. The global economy is projected to grow at 3.5 percent this year, 0.2 percentage point below last October’s projections and estimated performance in 2018. The revisions carry over from softer economic momentum in the second half of 2018, in particular in Germany, due to the problems of the automotive industry, and in Italy, due to the worries about sovereign and financial risks. Moreover, the experts acknowledge now the weakened financial sentiment and project deeper contraction in Turkey than previously anticipated.

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Commodities

Monday, January 21, 2019

Gold Stocks Remain in a Downtrend / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Last week we discussed the difference between a rally and bull market.

Gold stocks have been in a rally.

That rally is now over as gold stocks peaked at their 400-day moving averages days ago and sliced through their 200-day moving averages Friday.

Take a look at the charts of any gold stock index (GDX, GDXJ, HUI) and it’s clear they are in a downtrend.

Go back two to three years. You’ll see lower highs and lower lows. That’s a downtrend!

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Commodities

Friday, January 18, 2019

Gold Surges on Stock Selloff / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold investment demand reversed sharply higher in recent months, fueling a strong gold rally.  The big stock-market selloff rekindled interest in prudently diversifying stock-heavy portfolios with counter-moving gold.  These mounting investment-capital inflows into gold are likely to persist and intensify.  Both weaker stock markets and higher gold prices will continue to drive more investment demand, growing gold’s upleg.

Early in Q4’18, gold reached a major inflection point.  It languished during the first three quarters of 2018, down 8.5% year-to-date by the end of Q3.  Investors wanted nothing to do with alternative investments with the stock markets powering to new record highs.  The flagship S&P 500 broad-market stock index (SPX) had rallied 9.0% in the first 3/4ths of last year.  That left gold deeply out of favor heading into Q4.

But a critical psychological switch was flipped as the SPX started sliding last quarter.  After long years with little material downside, stock traders had been lulled into overpowering complacency.  They were shocked awake as the SPX plunged 14.0% in Q4, its worst quarter since Q3’11.  They poured back into gold as stocks burned, driving it a strong 7.6% higher in Q4!  Rekindled investment demand was the driver.

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Commodities

Monday, January 14, 2019

Gold Stocks, Dollar and Oil Cycle Moves to Profit from in 2019 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: readtheticker

Every thing has a cyclical manner, some more than others. And when price and the cycle runs together, it great to be in it for the ride! Of course fundamentals are the reason for a price move, yet the laws of nature seems to co ordinate fundamentals, price and time together, hence the outcome can be seen via a sine wave cycle. If you use some math called 'Bartels' (more here) you can scan many sine waves periods to see if they fit into your price time series, each time series will have it's own characteristics, some cycles will be a better with either a daily, weekly or monthly periods. Back testing the cycle is critical, as cycles do come into form and fall out of form, but over time they do add to the investors arsenal while working out the next risk reward price move.  Consider these possible big movers in 2019.

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Commodities

Saturday, January 12, 2019

Gold GDXJ Upside Bests GDX / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold miners’ exchange-traded funds are surging with gold powering higher.  These mounting gains are naturally fueling growing interest in the leading gold-stock investment vehicles.  Traders looking to deploy capital are wondering which major gold-stock ETF is superior, offering the best balance between upside potential, component fundamentals, and risks.  GDXJ takes the crown, besting its larger big brother GDX.

By my count, there are currently 14 gold miners ETFs trading in US markets.  But that’s not authoritative, as the broader ETF industry is constantly in flux.  These gold-stock ETFs collectively held $17.5b in net assets as of the middle of this week.  And two major ETFs utterly dominated, commanding fully 85.1% of all those gold-stock investments!  They are of course GDX and GDXJ, which dwarf everything else in this sector.

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Commodities

Sunday, January 06, 2019

Gold Stocks Upleg Breaking Out / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold stocks’ young upleg is really growing, on a trajectory to become major.  This contrarian sector is breaking out to the upside on multiple fronts technically, which is really improving sentiment.  Traders’ extreme bearishness of late summer has mostly abated, with bullish shoots taking root.  Fundamentals certainly justify the mounting gold-stock buying, with earnings set to surge on higher gold prices in coming quarters.

This baby new year should prove far happier for gold stocks than 2018.  This sector’s performance is measured by the share price of the flagship gold-stock investment vehicle, which is the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF.  This week it held shares worth $10.5b in 46 major and mid-tier gold and silver miners from around the world.  GDX is now 60.1x larger than the next-biggest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF!

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