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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Recession 2020

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Economics

Sunday, July 14, 2019

Fed’s Recessionary Indicators and Gold / Economics / Recession 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

How likely is a recession in the United States? Predicting a recession is difficult, but one can make some nice money with a good forecast. Consequently, we invite you to read our today’s article, which discusses the most important recessionary models developed by the Fed, and find out what do they imply for the gold market.

How likely is a recession in the United States? Predicting a recession is difficult, but one can make some nice money with a good forecast. So let’s focus on the most important recessionary models developed by the Fed.

The first model is the smoothed recession probabilities for the United States developed by Marcelle Chauvet and Jeremy Piger based on the research published in the International Economic Review and Journal of Business and Economic Statistics. The odds are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 04, 2019

Recession Is a Psychological Thing: It Will Happen When We Say It Happens / Economics / Recession 2020

By: Jared_Dillian

We haven’t had a recession in a while in the United States.

The last one was pretty bad, so it stands to reason we might want to avoid a repeat of that experience.

President Trump is working very hard to ensure that we do not have a recession (at least until the 2020 election). The Fed no longer seems to believe that inflation is the greater risk. We are basically running the economy at full speed all the time.

It is hard to have a recession when monetary and fiscal policy have buried the needle.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 04, 2019

Could the Trade War Help Ignite the Coming Recession? / Economics / Recession 2020

By: Robert_Ross

Dear Reader,

Another of the many moving parts in the economy right now is the escalating trade war between America and China.

The costs are starting to be felt. In fact, the latest tariffs should cost the average American household $831 this year, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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Economics

Friday, April 26, 2019

The US Economy Is Reaching a Dead End / Economics / Recession 2020

By: John_Mauldin

Sooner or later, the US will enter a recessionMy best guess is it will happen sometime in 2020. I may be off (early) by a year or two, but it’s coming.

We know two things will happen.
  • Tax revenues will fall as people’s income drops.
  • Federal spending will rise as safety-net entitlement claims go up.

The result will be higher deficits.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 23, 2019

Forecasting 2020s : Two Recessions, Higher Taxes, and Japan-Like Flat Markets / Economics / Recession 2020

By: John_Mauldin

I’m slowly losing confidence in the economy. 

I still think the economy is okay for now. But I also see recession odds rising considerably in 2020. Maybe it will get pushed back another year or two, but at some point, this growth phase will end.

It will be either recession or an extended flat period (even flatter than the last decade, which says a lot).  On top of that, we are headed toward a global credit crisis I’ve dubbed The Great Reset.

Let me give you the CliffsNotes version of how I think the next decade will play out.

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