Category: Inflation
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Saturday, December 15, 2007
Sharp Rise in US CPI Inflation as Energy Prices Surged during November / Economics / Inflation
By: Tim_Iacono
The Labor Department reported sharply higher inflation in November as consumer prices rose 0.8 percent, the steepest increase in 26 months. From year-ago levels, inflation was a full 4.3 percent higher, the worst year-over-year reading since Hurricane Katrina.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
Western Economies Hit by Dual Shocks of Rising Commodity Prices and Financial Market Credit Crisis / Interest-Rates / Inflation
By: Adrian_Ash
"...You can either bail out the big banks with a flood of cheap money, or you can keep a lid on inflation. You can't do both, not according to history. And sometimes – like now – you'll be hard put to achieve either..."
"THE ECONOMY has been hit by two shocks," said Andrew Sentance, a Bank of England policymaker, in a speech on Tuesday night.
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Monday, November 26, 2007
UK Inflation Forecast 2008 (RPI and CPI) / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The recent up tick in UK inflation has sparked inflation concerns to continue going into 2008. However the Market Oracle anticipated the recent up tick as a consequence of money supply growth earlier in the year as an indicator of future inflation and that the up tick would prove temporary as many factors converge towards deflationary pressures during 2008 that will allow the Bank of England to start cutting UK interest rates towards a target of 5% before the decline in UK inflation starts and for UK inflation to subsequently fall towards the Market Oracle targets of 3% RPI and 1.8% CPI towards the end of 2008.
The following analysis presents some of the key factors that will result in the fall in UK Inflation during 2008.
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Saturday, November 17, 2007
Real US Inflation is 6% Not 2% Implying Stagflation / Economics / Inflation
By: John_Mauldin
In this issue:
- How do You Spell Stagflation?
- Cooking the Inflation Books
- Gaming the Producer Price Index
- Consumer Spending is Up, but then Again, It May Be Down
- A Two Dimensional Problem
- Saudi Justice
- New York, Toronto, Europe and Thanksgiving
This week we look at inflation. Is it just over 2%, giving the Fed room to cut rates, or will it be closer to 4% by the next FOMC meeting, making a rate cut problematic? How do they get those numbers? When and how can two opposite things be true at the same time? The answer depends on how many dimensions you are living in when you are asking the question. The Fed is going to be faced with a very difficult decision at its next meeting, and there results of there deliberations will be felt by you.
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Wednesday, November 14, 2007
Inflation Expectations Are Expected To Soar During 2008 / Economics / Inflation
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
It has been over month since my last editorial, “2008-2009: Rising Inflation Expectations Amidst an Inflationary Storm.” Since then commodities have continued to soar while the stock market has struggled in the wake of the ongoing credit crisis. It now appears that a decoupling between commodities and stocks is starting to take place. Such a decoupling is a catalyst for rising inflation expectations. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
NOLTE NOTES A Volatile Period As Stock Markets Nosedive in the face of Stagflation / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: Paul_J_Nolte
Ok, so the stock slump we have been looking for was more along the lines of a cliff dive. Worries over the dollar, oil, sub-prime write-offs and the housing markets all conspired last week to push markets down over 4% for the week. Global warming hurt the retail industry, as consumers stayed away from buying their winter garb just yet. We're still confused as to what constitutes “good” weather for shopping. The government's official stats will be released this week and should show retail sales slowed significantly from September's pace.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 12, 2007
US Dollar Devaluation Signals Risk Of Accelerating Global Hyperinflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Captain_Hook
Soon, the falling US Dollar ($) will reach a point of maximum pain, where trading partners will be forced to print enough currency to absorb accelerating quantities of $'s or have their currencies soar further against American fiat. Known by many as the ‘race to zero' all fiat currency systems undergo in their latter stages, and based on the observation the $ has now signaled it's in crash mode, one should expect this process to accelerate as essentially what is occurring is US debt holders are being bailed out. What's happening is the market knows they can't pay, and therefore the need to inflate debts away has now gripped macro-conditions. So, Americans are being pampered right now because they are still viewed as ‘key' in global consumption trends, but make no mistake about it, with the exception of newfound wealth in emerging markets, US trading partners are also seeing the consequences of unmanageable debt burdens, which will foster the need for competitive currency devaluations as process unfolds in coming months and years. This is what a parabolic gold price is signaling, the need for speed in currency debasement protocol on a global basis, or as is commonly referred to, ‘competitive devaluations'. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 08, 2007
Ben Bernanke Gets a Lesson on Inflation From Ron Paul / Politics / Inflation
By: Mario_Innecco
Representative and Republican Presidential candidate Ron Paul questioning Federal Reserve Board chairman Ben Bernanke about the debasement of the dollar at the JEC in Congress on November 8th, 2007 Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 04, 2007
US Fed Ignoring the Real World Inflation Data - Bernanke Should Take a Hike! / Economics / Inflation
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: The slumping housing market and the ongoing credit crunch have been a major thorn-in-the-side for the U.S. economy for many months, and conditions are likely to get worse before they get better.
However, does the big picture for the rest of the economy really look as bad as analysts and economists have made it appear?
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Sunday, November 04, 2007
Only Central Banks Can Create Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Mario_Innecco
We think the way inflation is presently defined goes a long way to helping central banks and governments perpetuate the debasement of currencies via the over issuance thereof. Prior to the 1980's The Merriam-Webster Dictionary defined inflation as: “an abnormal increase in the volume of money and credit resulting in a substantial and continuing rise in the general price level”.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 02, 2007
America's Greatest Export - Inflation in Spades / Economics / Inflation
By: Greg_Silberman
Oh the absurdity of it all! The last round of Fed rate hikes began early 2004 and ended in the middle of 2006. One of the primary justifications for a number of mini-rate hikes was the ominous threat of an outbreak in price inflation.
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Thursday, November 01, 2007
US Manipulation of Inflation Economic Statistics to Produce Strong GDP Growth Figures / Economics / Inflation
By: Peter_Schiff
Yesterday, as the dollar fell to new record lows and oil and gold prices surged to new highs, Wall Street remained fixated on wholly meaningless government data that managed to report the lowest inflation in the last half century. These bizarre numbers were integral in allowing the Commerce Department to report 3.9% annualized GDP growth in the third quarter, which was heralded by the bulls as evidence that a resilient U.S. economy had shrugged off the problems in the housing and mortgage markets. However, the government's ability to make “economic growth” magically appear is based purely on statistical finesse. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 26, 2007
Market Barotrauma - Disconnect From the Reality of the Business Cycle / Economics / Inflation
By: Brian_Bloom
There has been a disconnect in logic which has been seriously bothering me in recent weeks. Everything in my training has taught me that ‘the market' ultimately exerts a discipline on speculative excess, and ‘the market', being the sum of all players, is more powerful than any one player or set of players. Conceptually, therefore, whilst the Central Banks might ‘manage' the markets, the very idea of their being able to eliminate the business cycle has always struck me as being a nonsense. The longer the contraction phase of a business cycle is postponed, the worse will be the excesses that build up, and the more painful will be the rectifying contraction phase. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Major Turning Point Occurring Now! / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes: Years from now, we'll look back at this current period in time as a major turning point … when the fires of global inflation were ignited anew … when the world began to realize the dollar was worth no more than the paper it was printed on … and when central bankers became truly known as emperors with no clothes.
You're already seeing it begin, with the U.S. dollar plunging to all-time record lows against nearly all the world's major currencies, and even against dozens of third-world currencies.
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Saturday, October 20, 2007
Historic and Current Hyperinflation From Across the Globe / Economics / Inflation
By: Mike_Hewitt
Angola (1991-1999) Angola went through the worst inflation from 1991 to 1995. In early 1991, the highest denomination was 50,000 kwanzas . By 1994, it was 500,000 kwanzas . In the 1995 currency reform, 1 kwanza reajustado was exchanged for 1,000 kwanzas . The highest denomination in 1995 was 5,000,000 kwanzas reajustados . In the 1999 currency reform, 1 new kwanza was exchanged for 1,000,000 kwanzas reajustados . The overall impact of hyperinflation: 1 new kwanza = 1,000,000,000 pre-1991 kwanzas .
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Friday, October 19, 2007
US Inflation Understated in Official Statistics - Prices are the Cart, Money Supply is the Horse / Economics / Inflation
By: Peter_Schiff
The sad truth is that despite the best efforts of monetary economists everywhere, fundamental misconceptions about inflation remain entrenched in government, business, and the media.
In an exchange earlier this week on CNBC, a guest explained that rising oil prices can not cause inflation because prices for other goods must fall as spending is diverted to pay for more expensive oil. That explanation prompted host Becky Quick to ask: “If rising oil prices do not cause inflation, then what does?” Since that question was left unanswered on the air, I thought I would take the time to answer it here.
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Tuesday, October 16, 2007
UK Inflation CPI Remains Steady at 1.8% / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK inflation for September as measured by the governments preferred measure the Consumer Price Index remained steady at 1.8%. The more widely recognised measure of inflation RPI, fell to 3.9%.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 12, 2007
Red Hot Inflation Now Baked in the Crust As Investors Pile Into Commodities / Commodities / Inflation
By: Adrian_Ash
"...Wall Street and the City are suddenly piling into the commodity markets. Expect a side-order of '70s style inflation to hit your dinner table as a result..."
DIG OUT YOUR BELL-BOTTOMS and dust off your Doobie Brothers albums! This is where inflation stops hiding behind the official CPI data...and starts eating your cash savings and income alive.
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Friday, October 12, 2007
Consumer Price Inflation Has Finally Arrived and Gold Will Have Its Day In the Sun Yet / Commodities / Inflation
By: Greg_Silberman
Not a day goes by without another financial institution getting bailed out.Let's see, we have Countrywide Financial, German IKB and now the UK based Northern Rock.
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Friday, October 05, 2007
Inflation and the Federal Reserve / Economics / Inflation
By: Richard_C_Cook
No term in the “dismal science” of economics is more misunderstood than “inflation.” The word means “rising prices,” but is used at different times by different people to describe totally different phenomena.
The most predominant type of inflation is natural and occurs as raw materials are used up and must be replenished. It's akin to the law of diminishing returns, or entropy, and is overcome by technological innovation. Another type of inflation is expressed through constantly changing conditions of supply and demand, including the fluctuating cost of labor. Yet another type results from the predatory pricing practices of monopolies such as the worldwide oil cartel which has jacked up the cost of petroleum to over $80 a barrel.
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