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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock-Markets

Saturday, April 03, 2021

Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stocks Bear Market / Crash Indicator (CI18) - Current Risk is VERY LOW. The Crash Indicator is one of the neural nets I am working on as my AI takes baby steps into understanding how to interpret the stock market. It's task is to state the current risk of a bear market or crash being imminent i.e. within the next week or so. So an independant indicator that acts as a warning to HEDGE stock portfolios ahead of a high probability declines in the market. Where my preferred hedging tool is to go short stock index futures so as to capitalise on any drop delivering fresh funds to buy more AI stocks at deep discounts just as I did during March 2020. The last time this indicator triggered a warning was late February, so it is not a trading indicator but instead a Hedge your portfolio warning indicator.

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Commodities

Saturday, April 03, 2021

Gold Price Just Can’t Seem to Breakout / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Confirmed, unconfirmed, verified, and invalidated: breakouts and breakdowns are now ubiquitous. And the implications are bearish for gold.

Let’s start today’s analysis with a discussion of the key market that everyone is interested in – gold.

Gold’s Failed Breakout – A Sell Sign

In short, gold just invalidated its small breakout above the declining blue resistance line. The previous breakout was small and thus it required a confirmation. It never got one, and instead gold plunged, invalidating the move. This is yet another sell sign that we saw.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, April 03, 2021

Stocks, Gold and the Troubling Yields / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

Yesterday‘s consolidation in stocks was a bullish one, and the S&P 500 upswing has good prospects of proceeding unimpeded. Strange but true if you consider that also a plan to considerably raise taxes would be announced today, so as to help pay for the stimulus wave. The bond markets are calmly overlooking that so far, enabling the run to the 4,000 mark.

And it still appears a question of time. Inflation isn‘t yet biting (forget about the German CPI data for now), fresh money keeps hitting the markets, and Archegos is about to become a distant memory. Stocks seem immune to the rising yields spell at the moment, meaning that value trades can remain at elevated levels while technology is stuck in no man‘s land and defensives are consolidating recent sharp gains (consolidating until the rising yields come back with vengeance).

And there is little reason given the Fed‘s stance why they shouldn‘t. Much of the marketplace is buying into the transitory inflation story, and inflation expectations aren‘t yet running too hot. As the economic growth is stronger than current or future inflation, we‘re still at a good stage in the inflation cycle – everyone benefits and no one pays.

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Currencies

Saturday, April 03, 2021

What can you buy with cryptocurrencies? / Currencies / BlockChain

By: Sumeet_Manhas

...

 


Commodities

Friday, April 02, 2021

What a Long and Not so Strange Trip it’s Been for the Gold Mining Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021

By: Gary_Tanashian

The Gold Miner correction was well earned, but it was not a bubble

Even today there is some pablum out there talking about how if inflation is good for gold it is especially good for gold miners. I will simply repeat once again that if gold usually does not benefit fundamentally by cyclical inflation (i.e. inflation promoted for and currently working toward economic goals) the gold miners never do, unless they rise against their preferred fundamentals as they did during two separate phases in the last bull market, which were justly resolved with crashes.

Here are a couple charts we used in NFTRH 648 in a segment written to set the record straight. We have also used these charts – especially the first one – since the caution flags went up last summer, visually by the first chart and anecdotally by the usual suspects aggressively pumping the unwitting masses. Buffett buys a gold stock!… okay, well so much for that. Sentiment became off the charts over-bullish and now, as we prepare for the final act of the correction, it’s the opposite. That’s perfect.

HUI had far exceeded the Gold/SPX ratio and so it was very vulnerable from a macro fundamental perspective. Why on earth would players want to focus on miners digging a rock out of the ground that was starting to fail in a price ratio to the stock market? They wouldn’t, and since last summer they didn’t.

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Personal_Finance

Friday, April 02, 2021

WD My Book DUO 28tb Unboxing - What Drives Inside the Enclosure, Reds or Blues Review / Personal_Finance / Computing

By: HGR

Here's the unboxing of the 28tb MONSTER WD MY Book DUO external drive! Find out exactly what you get un the box and what drives are in the enclosure! Are they Red or Blue? Find out now! And also how not to get the drives out of the enclosure!

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Stock-Markets

Friday, April 02, 2021

Markets, Mayhem and Elliott Waves / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: EWI

Dear reader,

We are one year into the bull market that began in March 2020 -- and 12 years into the bigger bull market than began in early 2009.

You are probably getting anxious -- what's next for stocks, interest rates, gold and other commodities?

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Commodities

Friday, April 02, 2021

Gold And US Dollar Hegemony / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Kelsey_Williams

The US dollar is the world’s reserve currency. That isn’t likely to change anytime soon.

All currencies are substitutes for real money, i.e. gold.  And because all governments inflate and destroy their own currencies, any potential alternatives to the US dollar are as bad or worse.

That doesn’t stop the dollar bashing, of course. In a general long-term sense, the condemnation is well-deserved. After all, the US dollar, under the care and watch keeping of the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States, has lost more than ninety-eight percent of its purchasing power.

The possibility of gold reasserting itself as the international medium of exchange continues to increase; but, a lot more bad stuff has to happen before we get to that point. Also, governments around the world have too much at stake to capitulate when it comes to ceasing to issue ‘funny money’.

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Commodities

Friday, April 02, 2021

What Biden’s Big Infrastructure Push Means for Silver Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

The federal government is spending and redistributing newly created cash so rapidly, it’s becoming difficult to keep track of which trillions are going where.

This week, President Joe Biden will pitch a $3 trillion “green” infrastructure package. That’s on top of the $1.9 trillion economic “relief” bill he recently signed into law.

Next month, Biden is expected to roll out plans for additional trillions to be spent on healthcare, education, housing, and more.

Republicans in Congress may object to some of the proposed spending. But they have a lousy track record – even during times when they were the majority – when it comes to actually reining in federal outlays.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, April 02, 2021

Stock Market Support Near $14,358 On Transportation Index Suggests Rally Will Continue / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

An interesting Fibonacci Measured Move pattern has set up in the Transportation Index (TRAN) recently.  The Transportation Index is an important component of the future US economic expectations.  As the Transportation Index rises, one could assume greater economic activity is expected in the near-term 3 to 6+ future months.  As the Transportation Index declines, one could assume weaker economic activity is expected in the near-term 3 to 6+ future months.  My research team and I watch the TRAN as a type of confirming indicator for US major index and sector trends.  When we see the TRAN rising sharply, we can often assume various US sector trends will also move higher.

The Transportation Index Daily chart below shows two key elements we find interesting.  The first RED price range on this chart represents a 100% Fibonacci Measured Price move from the early November 2020 bottom to the mid-January 2021 peak.  If we extend that same range to the early February lows, we see a major support level exists near $14,358 (a full 100% Fibonacci Measured Price move).  The TRAN price has recently broken above this level and we believe this support level will likely hold and prompt another moderate rally attempt above $14,750.

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Personal_Finance

Friday, April 02, 2021

Crypto Mine Bitcoin With Your Gaming PC - How Much Profit after 3 Weeks with NiceHash, RTX 3080 GPU / Personal_Finance / Crypto Mining

By: N_Walayat

Crypto mania is reaching new heights with the likes of Bitcoin trading above above $60,000 which means virtually anyone with a decent enough GPU in their Gaming PC can make easy money crypto mining and here's how much I have actually made crypto mining in the background with my desktop PC over the past 3 weeks, as a real world example of what to expect if you have something like an RTX 3080 GPU in your system, all whilst continuing to work on the PC as normal with the the likes of NiceHash crypto mining in the background, where you get paid in BITCOIN and not useless obscure crypto coin, so do check out Nicehash to start crypto mining with your desktop PC.

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Politics

Friday, April 02, 2021

UK Lockdowns Ending As Europe Continues to Die, Sweet Child O' Mine 2021 Post Pandemic Hope / Politics / Coronavirus 2021

By: N_Walayat

Britain is moving towards an end to the nightmare that is the Chinese Wuhan bio lab leak virus. This is our hoping for a Post Pandemic future Sweet Child O' Mine.

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Commodities

Thursday, April 01, 2021

A Climbing USDX Means Gold Investors Should Care / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Positions in the USDX are shifting from shorts to longs, so gold investors should look closely. Why? Because it’s an inverse relationship.

We’ve discussed the negative correlation between the dollar and the precious metals many times before, but it can never be discussed enough, particularly as the situation develops and the outlook for the USD Index becomes more positive.

Once the USD Index lands some knockout punches, the precious metals will be hurting, as they tend to do when the dollar rises. Gold, silver and the miners will eventually rise, but for the medium-term, they are still in bearish territory.

Counted out, counted down and rarely counted on, investors threw in the USD Index’s towel long before the fight even began. However, after shaking the cobwebs and landing a few haymakers, the greenback’s Rocky-like comeback is proof that ‘it ain’t over till it’s over.’

Let’s look at the factors influencing rise of the USD Index as well as some of the historical patterns:

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, April 01, 2021

How To Spot Market Boom and Bust Cycles / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

One of the most important aspects of trading is being able to properly identify major market cycles and trends. The markets will typically move between four separate stages: Bottoming/Basing, Rallying, Topping/Distribution, and Bearish Trending.  Each of these phases of market trends is often associated with various degrees of market segment trending as well.  For example, one of the most telling phrases of when the stock market is nearing an eventual Topping/Distribution phase is when the housing market gets super-heated.  Yet, one of the most difficult aspects of this Excess Phase rally trend is that it can last many months or years, and usually longer than many people expect.


Until Gold Really Starts To Rally, Expect A Continued Rally In The Stock Market


When an Excess Phase rally is taking place in the stock market, we expect to see the Lumber vs. Gold ratio moving higher and typically see the RSI indicator stay above 50.  Demand for lumber, a commodity necessary for building, remodeling, and other consumer essential spending, translates well as an economic barometer for big-ticket consumer spending. Extreme peaks in this ratio can often warn of a pending shift in consumer spending and how the stock market reacts to an Excess Phase Peak.  Let’s take a look at some of the historical reference points on this longer-term Weekly Lumber vs. Gold chart below.


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Stock-Markets

Thursday, April 01, 2021

What Could Slay the Stock & Gold Bulls / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

Put/call ratio didn‘t lie, and the anticipated S&P 500 upswing came on Friday – fireworks till the closing bell. Starting on Thursday, with the rising yields dynamic sending value stocks higher – and this time technology didn‘t stand in the way. What an understatement given the strong Friday sectoral showing, acocmpanied by the defensives swinging higher as well. And that‘s the characterization of the stock market rise – it‘s led by the defensive sectors with value stocks coming in close second now.

Still last week, the market confirmed my early Friday‘s take:

(…) While it‘s far from full steam ahead, it‘s a welcome sight that the reflation trade dynamic has returned, and that technology isn‘t standing in the way. I think we‘re on the doorstep of another upswing establishing itself, which would be apparent latest Monday. Credit markets support such a conclusion, and so does the premarket turn higher in commodities – yes, I am referring also to yesterday‘s renewed uptick in inflation expectation.

Neither running out of control, nor declaring the inflation scare (as some might term it but not me, for I view the markets as transitioning to a higher inflation environment) as over, inflation isn‘t yet strong enough to break the bull run, where both stocks and commodities benefit. It isn‘t yet forcing the Fed‘s hand enough, but look for it to change – we got a slight preview in the recent emergency support withdrawal and taper entertainment talking points, however distant from today‘s situation.

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Commodities

Thursday, April 01, 2021

Precious Metals Mining Stocks Setting Up For A Breakout Rally – Wait For Confirmation / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Precious Metals have continued to slide sideways as the US stock markets have rallied into the FOMC meeting last week.  Not by coincidence, metals have continued to base/bottom near recent lows as concerns about the global debt/credit markets, central banks, and precious metal supplies continue to linger.  The US Fed indicated it will do whatever is necessary to support the recovering economy.  The question my research team asks in relation to the basis for a move in metals/miners is “do the global markets believe the global central banks still have control of the underlying global banking/credit markets well enough to prevent another massive rally in metals?”.

This question should be first and foremost for metals precious metals enthusiasts.  Recently, there has been quite a bit of concern related to a Silver Squeeze and COMEX deliveries.  Currently, there is some speculation that the Perth Mint has a very limited supply of physical metals on hand and nearly 60x that amount on their balance sheets (Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/Wallstreetsilver/comments/mc18no/perth_mint_unallocated_silver_is_not_backed_by/).  We’re no expert related to this lack of physical inventory, but if it is true, then a breakout rally in metals (a true metals SQUEEZE) could be just days or weeks away.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, April 01, 2021

Fed: “We’re Not Going to Take This Punchbowl Away” / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals markets are struggling against the headwind of a rising U.S. dollar this week.

The dollar index broke out to a four-month high on Thursday. Neither a much-awaited fall in bond yields nor dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials dissuaded currency traders from buying Greenbacks and selling other fiat currencies.

Commodities and precious metals markets also saw some selling.

Despite choppy trading in metals markets so far in 2021, intense demand for coins, bars, and rounds continues to strain supply chains in the bullion market. Some mints and dealers are simply unable to deliver product to their customers in a timely manner.

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Personal_Finance

Wednesday, March 31, 2021

Mining Bitcoin On My Desktop PC For 3 Weeks - How Much Crypto Profit Using RTX 3080 on NiceHash / Personal_Finance / Crypto Mining

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Crypto mania is reaching new heights with the likes of Bitcoin trading above above $60,000 which means virtually anyone with a decent enough GPU in their desktop PC can make easy money crypto mining and here's how much I have actually made crypto mining in the background with my desktop PC over the past 3 weeks, as a real world example of what to expect if you have something like an RTX 3080 GPU in your system, all whilst continuing to work on the PC as norma with the the likes of NiceHash crypto mining in the background, where you get paid in BITCOIN and not useless obscure crypto coin, so do check out Nicehash to start crypto mining with your desktop PC.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 31, 2021

INFLATION - Wage Slaves vs Gold Owners / Economics / Inflation

By: Richard_Mills

Inflation is the rate at which prices within a basket of goods or services (called the consumer price index or CPI) rise or fall. When a currency falls, the ability of that unit of money to purchase goods and services weakens, ie., it takes more units of currency to buy the same basket of goods as before it weakened. The more a currency falls, the less you can buy with it because its purchasing power decreases. We call this devaluation/ loss of purchasing power.

Casey Research founder Doug Casey believes we often put the cart before the horse when thinking about inflation. The renowned investor, author, and speaker states,

“Inflation” occurs when the creation of currency outruns the creation of real wealth it can bid for… It isn’t caused by price increases; rather, it causes price increases.

Inflation is not caused by the butcher, the baker, or the auto maker, although they usually get blamed. Inflation is the work of government alone since government alone controls the creation of currency.

Indeed, governments in fiat economies can literally print paper money “out of thin air,” something impossible to do with a gold-backed currency. When the United States and most of the world was on the gold standard, dollars could be converted to gold at the US Treasury’s “gold window” @ 1 oz=US$35. However, the US government was only allowed to create as much money as could be backed by the gold in its faults. (it is often said, “the Fed can’t print gold” (or silver).

When gold goes up or down it is not inherently losing value; what has changed is the value of paper money, the fiat dollar. When you buy gold to resist inflation, ie., rising prices that eat away your savings by reducing your purchasing power, it is called a hedge against inflation.

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Commodities

Wednesday, March 31, 2021

Why It‘s Reasonable to Be Bullish Stocks and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

Another day, another reversal – and a positive one for stocks. Universal sectoral weakness gave way to a unison rebound amid constructive outside markets. After weeks of on and off fits over rising Treasury yields, S&P 500 ran into headwinds on their retreat, and recaptured its luster yesterday as long-dated Treasuries (TLT ETF) rolled over to the downside. I guess nothing boosts confidence as much a troubled 7-year Treasury auction.

While it‘s far from full steam ahead, it‘s a welcome sight that the reflation trade dynamic has returned, and that technology isn‘t standing in the way. I think we‘re on the doorstep of another upswing establishing itself, which would be apparent latest Monday. Credit markets support such a conclusion, and so does the premarket turn higher in commodities – yes, I am referring also to yesterday‘s renewed uptick in inflation expectation.

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