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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Stock Market Trend Analysis 2019 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is my 6th analysis in a series of 10 that concludes in a 6 month trend forecast for the stock market.

December 2018 saw panic hit the stock market on the failure of the Santa rally to materialse, as those who had bet on such a widely anticipated rally (including myself) were forced to sell out which sent the Dow plunging below support of 23,400 to a low of 21,700. Which is a reminder that we are dealing with the FUTURE, which is UNWRITTEN. So there is always a risk that the market is not going to resolve in the anticipated direction no matter how confident one is at the time that it will.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, March 13, 2019

The $TSX.CA Composite Index Cycles & Bullish Trend / Stock-Markets / Canada

By: ElliottWaveForecast

Firstly, the index has rallied with other world indices trending higher into the June 2008 highs. It then corrected the bullish cycle as did most other world indices. The index ended that larger degree correction in March 2009. It is at this point where the index corrected the whole all time up bullish cycle. Thus the March 2009 lows is from where this cycle and swing analysis will begin. It appears to be a new beginning.

Secondly, from the 2009 lows the index shows a 5 swing higher sequence that favors further upside. Price has reached and exceeded the 61.8 – 76.4 Fibonacci extension of the 2009 to 2011 bullish cycle. That happened in September 2014 under the red swing count. This area was also seen in the preferred blue count the 61.8-76.4 Fibonacci extension was reached and slightly exceeded in January 2018.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, March 12, 2019

This Stock Market Pop Could Fizzle Fast / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The US stock market opened today with mixed opening prices.  The crash of the Ethiopian Boeing passenger jet prompted selling in the Blue Chips, particularly in Boeing (BA).  As of right now, the US stock markets have recovered quite well and have pushed higher.

We believe this upward rotation may be short-lived and want to highlight the two Engulfing Bearish candlestick patterns that have formed recently.  The first, near the October 2018 highs, prompted a very deep price correction that ended on December 24, 2018.  The more recent, completed just on March 8, 2019, is setting up resistance just above recent highs ($175.95) and is still a very valid sell signal for the QQQ.  Unless the price is able to breach the $175.95 level over the next few weeks, this Engulfing Bearish candlestick pattern is technically the key pattern driving future expectations for the price.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 11, 2019

Phase 1 of Stock Market Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Is the long-term trend resuming? Is this a B-wave?  Too early to tell!

Intermediate trend – Initial rally has come to an end.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 11, 2019

Long Awaited Stock Market Pullback has Finally Arrived / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

It was a tough week for the U.S. stock market, with the S&P falling 5 days in a row. The S&P is finally starting to make a somewhat sizable pullback, although this pullback happened later than we expected. Most pullbacks are start at the 50% retracement level – this one started at the 78.6% level, which proves that the short term is always extremely hard to predict.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 11, 2019

US Presidential Cycle and the Stock Market - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The US Presidential cycle pattern has proved REMARKABLY ACCURATE in terms of flagging future stock market price action as an except from my last in depth look at stocks illustrates:

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 11, 2019

Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis Trend Forercast / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ELLIOTT WAVES

Where elliott wave is concerned I like to keep things very simple which is why I don't adhere to the many tenants of elliott wave theory as for me, EW is just a another technical tool. Here's what my previous elliott wave interpretation which correctly expected a rally to Dow 27k into October 2018 that was virtually spot on.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 11, 2019

Chinese Economic Data Shakes the Global Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

March 8th, 2019 may gain some level of infamy over the next few decades.  There were two big numbers released on this day, the current Chinese economic data and the US Jobs data for February 2019.  Both numbers fell drastically lower than analysts expected and the global stock markets dropped in pre-market trading by more than 1%.  Yet, something very interesting transpired through the trading day – a recovery rally.

The Chinese economic data was particularly devastating.  It leads our researchers to ask a very critical question, “is this going to be an orderly contraction or is this contraction going to extend into more chaos?”  Our research team believes the economic contraction in China will extend out into much of Asia and nations participating in the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) over the next 3~6+ months.  We believe a natural progression of “protectionist processes” will begin to take place throughout many of these nations as the money spigot from China dries up.  We believe this credit contraction and economic downturn will result in an extended repositioning of priorities, assets, and valuations throughout most of SE Asia and India.  It could extend into certain areas in Europe and Arabic nations.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 11, 2019

Is the Stock Market Trend From December 2018 Over? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: WavePatternTraders

The recent price action we have seen this past week, potentially has the makings of a reversal in progress. Some world stock markets are showing an outside weekly bar reversal pattern, which is a strong pattern to support further weakness.

Looking at a number of highly correlated markets, they are showing a very similar pattern. I favor an impulse wave (5 wave decline) is in progress, an up-down sequence is still needed to develop a 5 wave decline from their respective swing highs. If we can count 5 waves to end an impulse wave from last weeks high, a bounce thereafter in 3 waves would support a move lower and offer a selling opportunity.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 11, 2019

The Stock Market Has Called the Fed’s Bluff, What’s Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Graham_Summers

The Fed is truly in a panic.

Let’s take a big picture perspective of the last year or so.

Throughout 2018, the Fed claimed it could normalize policy (raise rates and shrink its balance sheet).  Heck, the Fed didn’t just claim this, it was supremely confident of it.

Indeed, the Fed was still pushing this narrative as late as August, when most of the Emerging Market space and many economically sensitive asset classes had already collapsed 30%.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, March 10, 2019

SPX Big US Stocks Fundamentals / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The widely-held mega-cap stocks that dominate the US markets recently finished reporting their Q4’18 financial results.  Because the tenor of stock markets changed radically last quarter, this latest earnings season is more important than usual.  An extreme monster bull market suddenly rolled over into a severe near-bear correction in Q4.  How major corporations fared offers insights into whether a young bear is upon us.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders.  They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing corporations’ underlying hard fundamental realities.

While 10-Qs with filing deadlines of 40 days after quarter-ends are required for normal quarters, 10-K annual reports are instead mandated after quarters ending fiscal years.  Most big companies logically run their accounting on calendar years, so they issue 10-Ks after Q4s.  Since these annual reports are larger and must be audited by independent CPAs, their filing deadlines are extended to 60 days after quarter-ends.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, March 09, 2019

Yield Curve Inversion and the Stock Market 2019 - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Yield Curve Inversion

An inverted yield curve is basically when the yield on 2 year US government bond exceeds the 10 year US bond yield as worried investors opt to disinvest from risky assets in favour of safer longer term government bonds thus driving down long bond yields below that of nearer term bonds. And the closer the yield curve gets towards towards an inversion the greater the likelihood for a future recession. So far the yield curve inversion has successfully forecast the last 3 economic downturns in the United States. Though the YCI has proved less reliable elsewhere, especially for Australia.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, March 09, 2019

Various Stock Market Indicators are Plunging. Run for the Hills! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

The S&P 500 is pulling back from its 2800 resistance. Meanwhile, the latest readings for various widely publicized technical and fundamental indicators plunged. And right on cue, mainstream financial media broadcasted these indicators with a megaphone because hey, nothing sells like bad news. (Modern day finance is all about the marketing hype).

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Stock-Markets

Friday, March 08, 2019

QE4EVER Stock Market 2019 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The stock market soared has soared since the start of 2019, this despite President Trump shutting much of the US government down for 5 weeks accompanied by increasing global economic doom and gloom from a slowdown in China, to Germany teetering on the brink of recession a with Italy already having tipped into recession.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, March 08, 2019

Practical Prepping for Financial SHTF Scenarios / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Preppers – the sort of people who build bunkers, stockpile supplies, and bear arms – aim to survive “SHTF” scenarios.

When war breaks out, when the power grid goes down, when the banks fail, when the U.S. dollar collapses, when social unrest spreads, when the stuff hits the fan… will you be prepared?

Risks are rising.

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists maintains a “Doomsday Clock.” For 2019, it “sets the Doomsday Clock at two minutes to midnight—the closest it has ever been to apocalypse.”

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Stock-Markets

Friday, March 08, 2019

Stock Market Downward Reversal? Stocks Still Relatively Close to Their Recent Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Paul_Rejczak

Wednesday's trading session was bearish, as stocks retraced their Tuesday's advance. However, the market remained at its recent local lows. So is this a topping pattern or just a pause before another leg up?

The U.S. stock market indexes lost 0.5-0.9% on Wednesday, retracing their Tuesday's advance, as investors took some short-term profits off the table. The S&P 500 index retraced more of its October-December downward correction of 20.2% on Monday, before reversing its intraday advance and getting back below the 2,800 level. The market continued to fluctuate close to the previous medium-term local highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.9% on Wednesday.

The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index remains at 2,800-2,820, marked by the medium-term local highs. On the other hand, the support level is at around 2,765-2,770, marked by the recent local lows. The support level is also at the previous daily gap up of 2,757.90-2,760.24.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, March 07, 2019

The Exponential Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Were now into the 11th year of this ageing stocks bull market for which my underlying message for its duration has been the same, one of "the greater the deviation from the bull market peak then the greater the buying opportunity presented".

Whilst all bull markets eventually come to an end. However, that end ALWAYS tends to prove temporary, soon appearing as inconsequential blips on the long-term trend chart as the overall inflationary stock market trend is exponential! Which is why the Great Stock Market crashes of the past such as 1929 and 1987 are barely visible blips today.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, March 07, 2019

What Commodities and Transportation Stocks Telling Us - Part2 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In Part I of this report we talked about and showed you what commodities and transports where doing in relation to each other. Here in Part II, we show you in detail what we expect to take place.

This final chart highlights our Custom Smart Cash Index (in BLUE) as well as the CBOE Commodity Index pricing levels (in RED).  This data goes all the way back to 2012 and highlights a number of key pricing rotations.  First, we can see that Commodities have been decreasing in total value from 2012 till mid-2017.  We can also identify a key support level that was established in the Commodities Index near the beginning of 2016 – coinciding just a month or so before the bottom in the Smart Cash Index.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, March 07, 2019

Dear Stocks Bull Market: Happy 10 Year Anniversary! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

It’s been almost 10 years since this bull market began. What an incredible run. Despite all the doom-and-gloom news reports, this bull market has been impressive. (And no, it’s not because of “evil government manipulation”).

To put this into perspective, someone who bought at the top in 2007 would still have doubled their money (after including dividends reinvested).

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, March 06, 2019

US Presidential Cycle and Stock Market Trend 2019 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The US Presidential cycle pattern has proved REMARKABLY ACCURATE in terms of flagging future stock market price action as an except from my last in depth look at stocks illustrates:

Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2018

The basic pattern for the US Presidential cycle is for a strong election year and post election year, followed by weak Mid-term then a strong pre-election year.

The trend to date is clearly continuing to prove remarkably inline with the US presidential cycle. Which does not bode well for the remainder of the 2018 i.e. implies stocks are going to remain stuck in this trading range for the WHOLE of 2018! Which is one of the reasons why I was bearish for the prospects for the stock market at the start of the year.

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