Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Tuesday, June 14, 2016
Stock Market Sell Off Coming! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
This “distortion” between “risk” and “return” has created a “bubble” effect in all global equity classes. I informed my subscribers to exit the SPX on November 25th, 2014 and to enter cash. Their equity risk exposure was reduced to zero. Momentum oscillators are now extremely overbought and are very clearly trending bearish. I wait for confirmation before entering any new long SDS and long VXX positions.
This week (Tuesday) there is another FOMC meeting. The news of this monetary policy will be released on Wednesday, June 16th, 2016. Expect choppier price going into the meeting and shortly thereafter.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 14, 2016
QE - The Good, Bad & Ugly / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
Are we better off with "QE", the ultra-accommodative monetary policy pursued by major central banks around the world? Is it "mission accomplished" or are we facing a "ticking time bomb"? Are extreme characterizations even warranted to describe the unconventional monetary policy of recent years, and what are implications for investors?
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 14, 2016
Stock Market, Gold Miners Forecasts Update / Stock-Markets / Articles
I had an alternate I posted a few weeks ago that suggested that the S&P 500 would fall to 1995/96 by June 17, then rally strongly into month’s end. Today’s market action suggests that the alternate is the likely choice going forward.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 14, 2016
Germany Stock Market DAX H&S Break Leading ? / Stock-Markets / Germany
Simple daily chart for the last year on the The German Stock Index "DAX" which comprises 30 German blue chip stocks.
Notice the price fib. retracement from early Dec. high to Mid. Feb. low was hit first at the 50%, then 61.8%, then follows a lower high, and lower low. This may lead to lower prices in the near future.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 14, 2016
Stocks Bears Defending 2100+ Pivot Still No Real Selling Ahead Of Fed And Brexit... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
Nothing has changed for nearly two years now, and I say that with a sense of sadness to everyone who plays this incredibly difficult game. Long-term lateral consolidations of this length can be looked at two ways. First is when a stock or index moves laterally for a long time it usually continues the trend in place. However, there is another side to see. If the consolidation is too long, nearly two years, you have to start wondering if the market is slowly turning over.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 14, 2016
Stock Market Caution / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
Well, the Banking Index (the BKX) is holding its up trending and support for now, but its longer term trend is showing a down trending channel.
The pressure is on with the 30 Relative Strength reading coming in at 50.54 (or 00.54 on our CRSI indicator).
At the same time, the Accelerator and the Timing indicator are showing down moves, so we could see trouble at this time. Be very careful now.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 13, 2016
Stock Market Uptrend's Reversal Or Just Short-Term Downward Correction? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,140, and profit target at 2,000, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains bearish, as the S&P 500 index extends its lower highs, lower lows sequence:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
Monday, June 13, 2016
Former Fed President: All My Very Rich Friends Are Holding a Lot of Cash / Stock-Markets / Investing 2016
BY TONY SAGAMI : If you put together a list of the world’s most brilliant, most famous investment experts… they were all at John Mauldin’s Strategic Investment Conference last month.
My head is still spinning with all the information and investment ideas I heard at the conference, but the consensus among the majority of speakers was that things are going to get ugly.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 13, 2016
Stock Market Correction Near / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
According to my read, the stock market as measured by the S&P 500 is about to enter roughly a 12 to 13% correction. A few weeks ago, I wrote about the dates July 5th and November 29th as being possible important cycle lows for the stock market this year.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 13, 2016
Stock Market Overhead Resistance Prevails / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: A lengthy correction is most likely underway!
SPX Intermediate trend: Overhead resistance appears to have prevailed and turned prices short of making a new high.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 12, 2016
NYA/TLT 2y, Weekly Chart & Analysis - Bearish View / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
Chart below shows a comparison of up-trending TLT and down-trending NYA. I would like to point out the two TLT spikes and lows in the market indicated by the 2 gray vertical boxes. With that in mind, TLT looks to be breaking to the upside with a weekly close higher then previous and mid channel resistance.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 11, 2016
US Rapidly Approaching Recession, Best Stocks Trade Setup in 8 Years is Back! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
The US is now rapidly approaching, if not already in a recession.
The media likes to talk about unemployment. But the unemployment rate is so gimmicked to make the economy look strong, that even THE FED had to create its own employment metric.
When even the Fed calls out data for being phony, you know it’s complete fiction.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 11, 2016
US Equity Uptrend Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
The week started off at SPX 2099. On Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday the market moved higher, without dropping below SPX 2099, and hit SPX 2121. Then on Thursday and Friday the market pulled back to SPX 2090, before ending the week at 2096. For the week the SPX/DOW were -0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.0%. Economic reports for the week were light and mixed. On the downtick: investor holdings, consumer credit/sentiment. On the uptick: wholesale inventories, plus weekly jobless claims and the budget deficit improved. Next week will be highlighted by the FOMC meeting, and Industrial production.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 11, 2016
Stock Market Headwinds At 2116......Some Key Sectors Quit At Long-Term Down Trend Lines..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
It was a very interesting week. The banks had started to lead higher some weeks back when it was considered a slam dunk that the Yellen would raise rates at the June meeting coming up next week. Then the market got hit with a negative surprise with the Jobs Report that came in roughly 130,000 jobs short. Smart money recognized that the rate hike was off the table for June, and, thus, rates started to fall. The banks hit its long-term, down trend line, and instead of breaking through, it turned and headed south. Too many economic negatives to make a clean breakout, which would have likely led to the S&P 500 challenging the old highs at 2134. It was a real slap in the face to the financials, and that carried over to the rest of the market as this week came to an end.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 10, 2016
SPX is probing lower / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
I’m switching to an hourly chart to zero in on what is hanging up the decline in SPX. The culprit is a Short-term support/resistance line at 2099.86. The decline appears to be resuming after a bounce from that support zone.
The primary view is that SPX may bounce from one of the trendlines this afternoon to complete Wave [i].
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 10, 2016
Stock Market Risk off / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
Good Morning!
SPX Premarket now appears to be beneathits round number support at 2100.00. Should the sell-off continue, it opens the door to test the trendlines at 2085.00 later today.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 10, 2016
Sloppy, Choppy Stock Market Consolidation Day / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
The stock market indices continued their 3-day slide slightly, although the afternoon came back big from midday losses where it looked like they would roll over. However, support did hold. At the end of the day the S&P 500 staged a late, 3-hour rally that took the market back to much more reasonable losses.
Net on the day, the Dow was down 19.86 at 17,985.19, about 70 points off the low. The S&P 500 was down 3.64 at 2115.48, 8 points off its low. The Nasdaq 100 was down 7.94 at 4512.69, 18 points off its low.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 09, 2016
Stock Market Aggressive Sell Signal on Deck / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
SPX opened down at 2115.65 leaving a gap of nearly 3.5 points. It appears that the gap may not be filled, which suggests the next leg down is about to begin. The support at 2111.00 has been broken, so the next level to be tested is the double trendlines at 2085.00.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 09, 2016
SPX is Testing Support / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
The SPX Premarket appears to be challenging the shelf of support at 2111.00. Today is a double Pivot day and 21 calendar days from the May 19 low. A reversal today would create a very left-oriented Cycle, which is bearish.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 09, 2016
Stocks Get Closer To All-Time High, As SP500 Trades Above 2,100 Mark - Will It Continue Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,140, and profit target at 2,000, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains bearish, as the S&P 500 index extends its lower highs, lower lows sequence:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral