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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Election Oracle

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

ElectionOracle

Friday, April 03, 2015

Leaders Debate Election 2015 - Debt, Will Labour Bankrupt Britain Again? / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Lib Dem Coalition partners may or may not have a secret constituency level pact to keep Labour challengers out, but throughout the ITV Leaders debate there were several instances of Nick Clegg and David Cameron using a pincer movement against Ed Milliband, especially given that they had a lot of ammunition to fire against the Labour leader on the last Labour governments abysmal record that left the economy virtually on the brink of bankruptcy with an accelerating annual deficit of £167 billion that the coalition have battled to bring under control.

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ElectionOracle

Thursday, April 02, 2015

Ashcroft Poll Forecasts Nick Clegg to Lose Sheffield Hallam, But Tories to Rescue Lib Dems / ElectionOracle / Sheffield

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Labour party finally came to life in the battle for Lib Dem Leader Nick Clegg's Sheffield Hallam Seat, with the start of door step campaigning for local votes and leaflets dropping through letter boxes that list Lib Dem 'broken promises' such as not to raise tuition fees, VAT, and the local issue not to grant Sheffield Forgemasters a £80 million loan. Whilst Labour promises to "cut the deficit every year and get the current budget into surplus". Which is set against Labours track record of an out of control £167 billion annual budget deficit for 2009-10.

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ElectionOracle

Wednesday, April 01, 2015

Election Forecast 2015 - Coalition Economic Recovery vs Labour Collapse / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The last ONS GDP statistics released before election day revised GDP growth higher for 2014 to 2.8% from the previous estimate of 2.6%, against 1.7% for 2013. The UK economy is now growing at its fastest pace since 2006 and leads the G7 countries prompting George Osborne to tweet “GDP revised upwards from 2.6% to 2.8% for 2014. Confirms UK as clearly fastest growing major advanced economy.” Whilst Ed Balls responded “This is the slowest recovery for 100 years and the Tories have failed to deliver the sustained rises in living standards they promised.” Though conveniently forgetting that the economy was recovering from the last Labour governments economic collapse.

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ElectionOracle

Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Ed Miliband Debate Election 2015 Analysis - Labour Spending, Debt and Economic Collapse / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

David Cameron having chickened out of a head to head debate with Ed Milliband left the Labour leader to on his own face the brought out of retirement Jeremy Paxman as the second debate of the night following his earlier 20 minute grilling of David Cameron. Jeremy Paxman started hard by focusing on the failures of the last Labour government in terms of immigration, debt, spending, economic collapse and the threat of a Labour-SNP alliance, but Jeremy relented towards the end of the debate to give Ed Milliband an markedly easier ride than the Prime Minister had received as the following comprehensive video of the debate and analysis illustrates.

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ElectionOracle

Monday, March 30, 2015

Election Forecast 2015 - Debates Boost Labour Into Opinion Polls Seats Lead / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Conservatives instant boost of Thursday night (26th March) evaporated within hours as several days on the main beneficiary where the opinion polls are concerned is Labour who have now once more flip flopped into the lead, though most still put both parties virtually neck and neck as clearly the people of Britain are indicating they do not trust either party to govern on their own, perhaps because they have become too similar, and therefore it looks like being a choice between a continuation of the Conservative - Lib Dem Coalition or an Labour - SNP Axis.

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ElectionOracle

Sunday, March 29, 2015

David Cameron Election 2015 Debate Facts Check - Employment, Immigration, Debt & Deficit / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

David Cameron having chickened out of a head to head debate with Labour Leader, Ed Milliband, has left voters with a 20 minute interview with the out of retirement Jeremy Paxman. The Prime Minister faced a barrage of questions concerning the Con-Lib governments five year track record that put David Cameron on the defensive on employment, debt, deficit and immigration that this article and video fact checks.

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ElectionOracle

Friday, March 27, 2015

Sheffield Hallam Election Battle 2015 - Lib Dems Go to War Whilst Labour Sleeps / ElectionOracle / Sheffield

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Opinion polls continue to paint a picture of a literal Lib Dem electoral blood bath, which according to several mainstream press analysts could see a loss of as many as 36 MP's to an abysmal tally of 20-24 MP's. For instance the New statements May2015.com is currently forecasting 24 seats for the Lib Dems.

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ElectionOracle

Thursday, March 26, 2015

SNP Economic Fantasy Land of Cutting the Deficit AND Increasing Spending! / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

For left of centre SNP the economic numbers have never needed to stack up in Scotland for the Scottish economy is bribed to stay in the UK via an annual £9 billion Barnett formulae block grant that results in 20% extra public spending per head than for England. So whilst being within the UK it just did not matter for instance that Scotland's primary revenue earner, the oil industry has just collapsed following the crash in the oil price for England has always picked up the tab regardless.

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ElectionOracle

Tuesday, March 24, 2015

David Cameron Announces Resignation Even Before Being Re-elected, Handing Labour 6 Seats / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

A BBC reporter at home with David Cameron in his kitchen completely caught the Prime Minister off guard when questioned on whether he would continue for a third term, to which Cameron stated that he had no intentions of standing for a third term, which means if re-elected in May then he would make way for his successor long before the 5 year term of the parliament was up, triggering immediate speculation that his departure could take place shortly after the highly divisive EU 2017 referendum.

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ElectionOracle

Tuesday, March 24, 2015

UK Election Forecast 2015 - Budget Bribes Fail, SNP Insurgency Catastrophe - Video / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

George Osborne's pre-election bribes budget apparently just did not live upto voter expectations as £3k bunged to first time buyers and £200 to basic rate savers amongst several smaller bribes was just not enough as the Conservatives saw a 10 seat projected swing to Labour. Meanwhile the Labour party is playing with fire as it dances around whether or not they would rely on SNP MP's to prop up a Labour government that would prove to be a catastrophe as this video illustrates.

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ElectionOracle

Monday, March 23, 2015

Election Forecast 2015 - Budget Bribes Fail to Impress Voters, Tory's Lose Seats in Opinion Polls / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

George Osborne's pre-election bribes budget apparently just did not live upto voter expectations as £3k bunged to first time buyers and £200 to basic rate savers amongst several smaller bribe was just not enough, either that or voters were spooked by the OBR bureaucrats savaging of the budget that implied a roller coaster ride of first severe austerity cuts of £65 billion per year, followed by a pre-election spending spree towards the end of the parliament.

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ElectionOracle

Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Help to Buy ISA 25% Government Home Buying Deposit Top Up UK House Prices Mega-Boost / ElectionOracle / UK Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

George Osborne's Budget 2015 contained the latest boost to UK house prices in the form of the Help to Buy ISA (savings account), that for every £200 saved will have £50 added to by the government i.e. a 25% government house buying deposit subsidy that currently converts into a maximum of £3,000 per prospective home buyer (£12k total deposit) that I am sure will be raised annually, and which for couples implies an current £6k subsidy.

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ElectionOracle

Wednesday, March 18, 2015

George Osborne Budget 2015 Election Bribes - Buying Votes with Borrowed Money / ElectionOracle / UK Tax & Budget

By: Nadeem_Walayat

With the election just 50 days away, to imagine that George Osborne would not attempt to bribe the electorate today is delusional and so George Osborne huffed and puffed of how he has managed to find an extra £6-£7 billion behind the sofa to give away to the grateful masses. Those that say that pre-election budgets don't matter, well that may usually be the case but not this time as, as few as a 10 seat swing from Labour to Conservative could make all the difference between which party forms the next government. So THIS pre-election budget definitely DOES matter!

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ElectionOracle

Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Sky News Tory Election Bias - Will Adam Boulton Lose the Plot Again? / ElectionOracle / Propaganda

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Sky News, the Murdoch owned Britain's version of Fox News revealed its true colours during and immediately after the 2010 General Election as its presenters became increasingly desperate in their attempts to steer the post election agenda towards a Conservative LIb-Dem Coalition as opposed to the then possibility of an Labour Lib-Dem Coalition.

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ElectionOracle

Monday, March 16, 2015

Election Forecast 2015: The Day Labour Lost the General Election / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

There is one unique thing about the Labour party that stands out more than anything else, which is that the Labour party with its block votes system that heavily dilutes party member votes to just 1/3rd representation, is usually hell bent on choosing as leader the least electable in terms of prime ministerial material that they can find. Against the 1980's Iron Lady Labour first had the hard to understand what he was talking about Michael Foot, soon followed by 'Were All Right' Kinnock, and then looked set to be destined for another failure under John Smith, election defeat only averted by his untimely death which prompted a battle between Tory Blair and Gordon Brown, luckily for Labour Tory Blair won and so did Labour for the next 3 elections in a row!

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ElectionOracle

Sunday, March 15, 2015

Osborne Budget 2015 New Annuities Pensioner Election Bribe Targets 5 Million Voters / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Last years budget announcement of pensions freedom from April 2015, that will allow pension fund holders to cash in all or part of their pension pots for a lump sum rather than being forced to buy an annuity is now being extended just in time for the election to all of the existing 5 million annuity holders from April 2016, who should the Conservatives win the election will also be able to cash in their annuities.

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ElectionOracle

Sunday, March 15, 2015

Election Forecast 2015 - Opinion Polls Trending Towards Conservative Outright Win / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Hung Parliament is NOT a Certainty!

Opinion polls obsessed journalists are continuously number crunching each weeks polls into seats per party election forecasts that are then liberally regurgitated across the mainstream media. That latest such analysis is signaling that Labour has lost its most seats lead of only a week ago as now the Conservatives are being forecast to form the largest party in another hung parliament. However, in terms of extrapolating the polling trends into election day then the consensus view for another hung parliament can no longer be certain, as the polling trend implies that the Conservatives could win an outright election victory as my original analysis of over a year ago concluded (30th Dec 2013 - UK House Prices Forecast 2014 to 2018, Inflation, Trend Trajectory and General Election 2015).

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ElectionOracle

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

General Election Forecast 2015 Stealth Economic Boom - Why Opinion Polls are WRONG! / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Opinion polls for the past month and earlier have consistently been putting Labour ahead by 1% - 2% which converts to Labour being the largest party in an hung parliament and therefore most likely to form the next government as indicated by a plethora of election forecasting sites such as electoralcalculus.co.uk which currently puts Labour on 298 seats to Conservatives on 267 (9th March 2015), or the New Statesman's May2015.com that puts Labour on 283 seats against Conservatives on 255 (5th March 2015).

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ElectionOracle

Sunday, March 08, 2015

Vote Labour Get SNP Catastrophe - General Election 2015 Forecast - Grand Coalition Possible / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Poll after poll indicates that the Labour party faces a blood bath in Scotland that could result in the loss of as many as 40 of its 41 Scottish seats and thus making a Labour majority government impossible, that coupled with the Liberal Democrats national meltdown could result in the SNP increasing their seats tally from the current 6 to as many as 57 thus replacing the Liberal Democrats as Britain's third largest party.

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ElectionOracle

Saturday, March 07, 2015

Immigration Crisis General Election 2015, Voters Punish Conservatives and Labour with Another Hung Parliament / ElectionOracle / Immigration

By: Nadeem_Walayat

A study by the University of Oxford concludes that England's migrant population has increased by 565,000 over the past 3 years of which 2/3rds are from the EU. However, in my opinion Oxford University grossly under estimates the number of immigrants as illustrated by the most recent ONS statistics which show a near 300,000 net migration to the UK over just one year, where the total over the past 3 years is near 750,000. So in reality the probable actual increase in migrant population of England and Wales is likely to be about 1/3rd higher than the Oxford University guesstimate.

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