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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Wednesday, January 09, 2019

Silver Price Trend Forecast 2019 / Commodities / Global Debt Crisis 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is the 4th and final article in this series that concludes in a trend forecast for the Silver price 2019.

  1. Silver Price Trend Forecast 2018 Review
  2. Gold - Silver Ratio
  3. Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019
  4. Silver Price Trend Forecast Conclusion for 2019

The whole of this analysis has first been made available to Patrons who support my work.

So for immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 08, 2019

Did Strong December Payrolls Push Gold Prices Up? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

December payrolls were strong – but gold prices rose. What happened?

Job Creation Surprises Positively

U.S. nonfarm payrolls accelerated in December, beating expectations. The economy added 312,000 jobs last month, following a rise of 176,000 in November (after an upward revision) and significantly above 182,000 forecasted by the economists. The number was the biggest increase since February 2018. On an annual basis, the pace of job creation increased slightly last month to 1.8 percent.

What is important is that the gains were widespread, but the most impressive expansion occurred in education and health services (+82,000), leisure and hospitality (+55,000) and professional and business services (+43,000).

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 08, 2019

Gold Hits Our $1300 Price Target – What Next? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Early trading on January 4, 2019, saw Gold reach just above $1300 per ounce – confirming our price target from our research and posts on November 24, 2018.  The importance of this move cannot be under-estimated.  Traders and investors need to understand the recent rally in the metals markets are attempting to alert us that FEAR is starting to re-enter the market and that 2019 could start the year off with some extended volatility.

Our research has shown that Gold will likely rotate between $1270~1315 over the next 30~60 days before attempting to begin another rally.  Our next upside price target is near $1500.  We will continue to post articles to help everyone understand when and how this move will happen.  We expect Gold to rotate near the $1300 level for at least another 30 days before attempting another price rally.

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Commodities

Monday, January 07, 2019

Will the Momentum in Precious Metals Continue? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The precious metals complex has enjoyed a nice run in recent months.

GDX has gained 25% since the September lows while GDXJ has gained 22% since its November low. Gold has rallied over $100/oz since its October low and Silver has surged in recent weeks.

The Gold community is getting excited again. They think the equity market is doomed and Gold has started a real bull run. That may be true but in the interim there are questions on the sustainability of recent strength.

Below we plot GDX with its advance decline (A/D) line and its RSI indicator. We already know that the A/D line has been carrying a few negative divergences.

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Commodities

Monday, January 07, 2019

Gold Golden Long-Term Opportunity / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Dan_Steinbock


As global jitters are escalating with economic uncertainty and market volatility, gold looks more attractive. But there’s a big difference between its short- and longer-term prospects.

Those analysts who believe that fear has made a comeback argue that gold is benefiting as equities slide and investors are increasingly concerned about the economic prospects of the U.S., China, Europe and Japan. Yet, even at $1,290, gold still remains more than 30% behind its all-time high of $1,898 in September 2011 amid the U.S. debt-limit crisis.

Although U.S. dollar has not strengthened as much as anticipated, the Fed’s rising rates have contributed to the fall in gold prices. In this view, a reversal may be unlikely because the investor assumption is that the Fed will continue to normalize, though perhaps slower than anticipated.

In the postwar era, such tightening meant a strengthening U.S. economy and a stronger dollar. But at the time, American economy was not haunted by budget and trade deficits or a debt burden. Today, it suffers from both twin deficits and a massive $22 trillion sovereign debt burden.

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Commodities

Monday, January 07, 2019

Natural Gas Through our $3.20 Target – What Next? / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team has been nailing the markets moves with our proprietary price modeling tools.  Our December 12, 2018 call that Natural Gas would collapse nearly 30% after reaching a price peak was a very bold call.  Who would have thought that predictive price modeling could be so accurate and could identify a move like this – or call for what is expected to happen next?

Back when Natural Gas breached the $4.60~4.80 range, our ADL predictive modeling system was suggesting a massive price anomaly was setting up.  These types of triggers are becoming more common as volatility in the general markets increases.  The ADL system suggested that a massive -30% downside price move would happen before the end of February 2019.

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Commodities

Sunday, January 06, 2019

Gold Stocks Upleg Breaking Out / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold stocks’ young upleg is really growing, on a trajectory to become major.  This contrarian sector is breaking out to the upside on multiple fronts technically, which is really improving sentiment.  Traders’ extreme bearishness of late summer has mostly abated, with bullish shoots taking root.  Fundamentals certainly justify the mounting gold-stock buying, with earnings set to surge on higher gold prices in coming quarters.

This baby new year should prove far happier for gold stocks than 2018.  This sector’s performance is measured by the share price of the flagship gold-stock investment vehicle, which is the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF.  This week it held shares worth $10.5b in 46 major and mid-tier gold and silver miners from around the world.  GDX is now 60.1x larger than the next-biggest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF!

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Commodities

Saturday, January 05, 2019

Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019 Video / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is the 3rd video in a series of 4 that concludes in a trend forecast for the Silver price 2019.

  1. Silver Price Trend Forecast 2018 Review
  2. Gold - Silver Ratio
  3. Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019
  4. Silver Price Trend Forecast Conclusion for 2019
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Commodities

Saturday, January 05, 2019

Gold At 6 Month High $1,300 and All Time Record Highs In Australian Dollars / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: GoldCore

– Gold over 6-month high at $1,300 on global slowdown fears
– Bullion surges 5% in December and consolidates on gains this week
– Gold surges to all time record highs in Australian dollars ($1,871)
– Safe haven demand for safe havens as risk assets sold
– Apple’s poor outlook sees stocks fall; Markets now wagering on Fed rate cut
– “2019 is already getting off to a volatile start and we expect to see the political and economic uncertainty of 2018 continue and deepen,” GoldCore told Bloomberg News

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Commodities

Friday, January 04, 2019

Oil Is At The Mercy Of Financial Markets / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Oil prices regained more ground on Wednesday, pushed higher after equity markets rebounded from an initial selloff at the start of 2019 trading.

The price gains are not entirely convincing. WTI and Brent posted strong gains, each up more than 3 percent by midday in New York, but come largely after U.S. equity markets shook off an earlier bout of pessimism.

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Commodities

Friday, January 04, 2019

Will the Futures Markets Save Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The extreme bearish CoT positions necessarily imply the turning point in the gold market. Myth or fact? We invite you to read our today’s article about Comex positioning and find out whether futures will save gold.

Usually, the Comex is seen by precious metals investors as the main public enemy. After all, it’s a marketplace for all these short futures which allegedly suppress the gold prices. But now, the gold permabulls use the CoT report as an bullish argument in the discussion on the future of gold.

Why? Let’s look at the chart below. As you can see, the speculators (non-commercials) maintain very small long position, while the commercial traders are unusually close to being neutral. Although both groups have moderated their bets recently, their positioning is still extreme.

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Commodities

Friday, January 04, 2019

The Men Who Stare at Charts: Decades of Disinflation & 7 Years Post-Op Twist / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

I was going to look around to see if I could find a media article out there (complete with a TA trying to sound really important) that would be appropriate to be made fun of in our little Men Who Stare at Charts series. But then I decided to create my own chart, stare at it a little, post it and talk about it (hopefully not too self-importantly).

Introducing an all too busy long-term (monthly) view of the Gold/Silver ratio, along with some key nominal markets.

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Commodities

Friday, January 04, 2019

Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is the 3rd article in a series of 4 articles that concludes in a trend forecast for the Silver price 2019.

  1. Silver Price Trend Forecast 2018 Review
  2. Gold - Silver Ratio
  3. Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019
  4. Silver Price Trend Forecast Conclusion for 2019

The whole of this analysis was first been made available to Patrons who support my work.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Thursday, January 03, 2019

Gold Hedges Stock Market Falls In 2018 – Gains 2.7% In Euros and 3.8% In Pounds / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: GoldCore

– Gold acts as hedge in 2018 – up 2.7% and 3.8% in euros and pounds (see tables & charts)
– Stocks fall sharply – S&P500, FTSE & Euro Stoxx 5o fall 6.25%, 12.5% & 15% respectively
– Worst year for most international equity indices since 2008
– Sharp falls in economically sensitive commodities: oil (WTI), gasoline and lumber down 24.2%, 27% & 23.8% respectively
– Volatility surges as seen in VIX rising over 110%
– Volatility continues in 2019 as stocks globally fall with Apple falling 8% overnight
– Gold and silver likely to outperform risk assets again in 2019 (see Outlook 2019 Podcast)

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Commodities

Thursday, January 03, 2019

Money Metals 2019 Precious Metal Markets Outlook / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals markets enter 2019 with an opportunity to shine. Several major bullish drivers are lining up to start the New Year – including technical, fundamental, monetary, and political drivers.

Before delving into each of them, let’s consider where we’ve been over the past 12 months.

To be frank, 2018 wasn’t a particularly bright year for gold and silver prices. Gold will finish with a slight loss; silver with a larger loss just shy of 10%.

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 02, 2019

Gold Looking Back, Looking Ahead 2019 – How Low Can Gold Price Go? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Kelsey_Williams

Each year we are treated to calls for gold’s next big move. We heard it last year; and the year before, too. And the year before that. It may not be a broken record , but it is the same song.

Predictions for gold’s price are more than guesses, but they might as well be just guesses. That’s unfortunate, because no small amount of time is spent trying to analyze gold. And it is time wasted. 

The analysis is faulty. Not only is it faulty, it is sometimes overly complex. The complexity exacerbates the problem. How do you analyze something that cannot be analyzed?

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Commodities

Wednesday, January 02, 2019

Gold - Silver Ratio 2019 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is the 2nd article in a series of 4 articles that concludes in a trend forecast for the Silver price 2019.

  1. Silver Price Trend Forecast 2018 Review
  2. Gold - Silver Ratio
  3. Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019
  4. Silver Price Trend Forecast Conclusion for 2019

The whole of this analysis has first been made available to Patrons who support my work.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Tuesday, January 01, 2019

Silver Price Starts A Breakout Move Higher / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Watch Silver, folks. This quiet shiny metal is starting a move that could be very foretelling of global market concerns and risks. Early on December 26, 2018, Silver broke through recent resistance, to the upside, with a relatively large 2.8%+ upside move. Why is this so important to traders? Because Silver is the “sleeper metal” that is typically the last to react to global economic concerns. Once Silver starts to move to the upside with a renewed bullish trend, we believe this move would indicate that bigger players are starting to accumulate Silver as a safe haven for future economic concerns/crisis events.

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 01, 2019

Gold’s Leading Indicators Looking Better / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Although yours truly has yet to completely jump on the bull bandwagon (which has revved up recently), I cannot ignore the positive fundamental and technical developments for precious metals.

On the fundamental side, the market is essentially pricing in no hikes for 2019 and the start of rate cuts in 2020. For Gold, that is a huge improvement from just a few months ago.

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Commodities

Sunday, December 30, 2018

Cyclical Assets vs. Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

Cyclical Assets vs. Gold

In January of 2018 we noted a cyclical leader (Semiconductor Fab Equipment) in trouble: Semi Canary Still Chirping, But He’s Gonna Croak in 2018.

We also ran a series of articles featuring the happy-go-lucky 3 Amigos (of the macro) in order to gauge a point when larger herds of investors would become aware of cyclical issues facing the global (including the US) economy. Each Amigo (SPX/Gold Ratio, Long-term Treasury yields and a flattening Yield Curve) would ride with the good times but signal an end to those good times when reaching destination (Amigos 1 & 2 got home but #3, the Yield Curve is still out there). Here is the latest Amigos status update from October: SPX/Gold, 30yr Yields & Yield Curve.

Today I would like to stick with a cyclical macro view, but do so through a lens filtered by the ultimate counter-cyclical asset, gold. As market participants, we are lost if we do not have road maps. That is why we (NFTRH) gauged Semi Equipment vs. Semi (and Tech), the unified messages of the macro Amigo indicators and many other breadth and cyclical indicators along the way to safely guide us to Q4 2018, which has been a challenge for many, but business as usual for those of us who were prepared.

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