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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Thursday, June 24, 2021

Will Gold Survive Hawkish Fed? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The recent Fed’s hawkish turn is fundamentally negative for gold prices but there is still some hope.

The hawkish counter-revolution within the Fed continues. On Friday, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that the recent FOMC shift towards a faster tightening of monetary policy was a natural response to faster economic growth and higher inflation than anticipated:

We were expecting a good year, a good reopening, but this is a bigger year than we were expecting, more inflation than we were expecting, and I think it's natural that we've tilted a little bit more hawkish here to contain inflationary pressures.

Bullard also noted that “Powell officially opened the taper discussion this week”. Indeed, in my Friday edition of the Fundamental Gold Report , I focused on the changed dot-plot , which suggested that FOMC members were ready to hike interest rates twice in 2023. However, the second major shift in the stance of the US central bank was that the Fed officials started to “talk about talking about” tapering.
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Commodities

Wednesday, June 23, 2021

Unlocking The Next Stage Of The Hydrogen Boom / Commodities / Energy Resources

By: Submissions

...

 


Commodities

Sunday, June 20, 2021

Smart Money Accumulating Physical Silver Ahead Of New Basel III Regulations And Price Explosion To $44 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Recently, Gold and Silver have somewhat stalled after a fairly solid upside price trend in April and May 2021.  Looking at the longer-term Weekly Silver chart, we believe Silver is ready to pounce with a big move higher.

The second half of 2021 will welcome BASEL III (likely) and a renewed focus by the US Federal Reserve (and Global Central banks) working to contain inflationary aspects of the recovering global economy while also attempting to support continued growth objectives.  I believe precious metals, in particular – Silver, have shown a very unique “Accumulation Phase” over the past 12+ months that may lead to a big upside breakout rally when it breaches the $28.50 level.

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Commodities

Sunday, June 20, 2021

Rambling Fed Triggers Gold/Silver Correction: Are Investors Being Duped? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals markets got absolutely slammed on Thursday.  The selling rout followed statements put out by the Federal Reserve suggesting that tapering and rate hikes could come sooner than previously expected.

The U.S. Dollar Index spiked on the Fed’s latest talking points, prompting short sellers in the commodity futures markets to pounce.

Copper and most other commodities also got hammered this week.

The interest rate markets, meanwhile, exhibited some unusual divergences. The 30-year Treasury yield fell sharply at the same time as shorter-term bond yields and mortgage rates rose. The effect was a dramatic flattening of the yield curve.

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Commodities

Sunday, June 20, 2021

Gold: The Fed Wreaked Havoc on the Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold declined yesterday, or I should say, it rushed down at breakneck speed. And while it might have been a surprise for some, it wasn’t for me.

However, we should stay alert to any possible changes, as no market moves in a straight line. Tread carefully.

On a side note, while I didn’t check it myself (well, it’s impossible to read every article out there), based on the correspondence I’m receiving, it appears I’ve been the only one of the more popular authors to be actually bearish on gold before the start of this week. Please keep that in mind, along with me saying that yesterday’s decline is just the beginning, even though a short-term correction might start soon. Having that in mind, let’s discuss what the Fed did (and what it didn’t do) in greater detail.

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Commodities

Friday, June 18, 2021

Gold Prices Investors beat Central Banks and Jewelry, as having the most Impact / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Richard_Mills

Gold had a remarkable 2020, gaining 22% for the calendar year on a “perfect storm” of factors, namely:

  • Torrid safe haven demand driven by fear of the coronavirus and its economic fallout;
  • Record-low sovereign bond yields, with many countries’ bonds actually offering negative returns. There is a strong correlation between the gold price and low yields, particularly the benchmark US 10-year Treasury note yield which plummeted at the start of the pandemic and bumped along under 1% for the rest of the year. Since gold does not offer a yield, it draws money from bonds and other income-yielding assets, when interest rates/ bond yields are low;
  • And a low US dollar. There is an inverse relationship between the gold price and the dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY) crashed from 98.36 in March 2020, as investors sought US dollars as a safe haven, to around 90 for the rest of the year, as it became clear to investors that the US economy was in trouble, its government having badly mismanaged the pandemic which led, and still leads, the world in the number of cases and deaths.

However when vaccines were announced near the end of last year and Donald Trump lost the US presidential election to Joe Biden, who promised to take swift action to curb the pandemic, gold starting losing favor.

Attention turned from bad economic news to the impending recovery, with China the poster child, as demand for commodities like copper and iron ore, needed to feed its resurgent manufacturing sector, soared.

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Commodities

Friday, June 18, 2021

Gold Asks: Will the Economic Boom Continue? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The US GDP has already recovered from the pandemic recession. What’s next for the economy and the gold market?

Ladies and Gentlemen, the economic crisis has ended. Actually, not only is the recession over but so is the recovery! This is at least what the recent GDP readings are indicating. As the chart below shows, the US nominal GDP has already jumped above the pre-pandemic level . The real GDP, which takes inflation into account, remained in the first quarter of 2021 below the size of the economy seen at the end of 2019, but it will likely surpass this level in the second quarter of the year.
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Commodities

Wednesday, June 16, 2021

Inflation Soars 5%! Will Gold Skyrocket? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

With the CPI annual inflation rate spiking 5% in May, gold could have gained a lot in response. However, it rallied only $20. Should we prepare for more?

Whoa! Inflation soared 5% in May – quite a lot for a nonexistent (or transitory) phenomenon! But let’s start from the beginning. The CPI rose 0.6% in May, after increasing 0.8% in April. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, soared 0.7%, following a 0.9% jump in April. So, given that the pace of the monthly inflation rate decelerated, we shouldn’t worry about inflation, right? Well… we should.

First of all, inflation was higher than expected , as the consensus forecast was a 0.4% increase. Inflation surprised pundits once again, but not me. Last month, I wrote in the Fundamental Gold Report that “Inflation escalated in April. In May, however, inflation could be softer, but it will remain relatively elevated, in my view” – and this is exactly what happened. However, the unexpected rise in inflation is positive news for gold, as such a surprise should decrease the real interest rates .
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Commodities

Wednesday, June 16, 2021

Four News Events That Could Drive Gold Bullion Demand / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

The halfway point of the year is quickly approaching. Dwindling confidence and concern over the direction of the country along with rising inflation expectations continue to drive strong demand for physical gold and silver. That trend appears set to continue through the second half of 2021.

Here are a few big stories with the potential to drive bullion buying in the months ahead.

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Commodities

Monday, June 14, 2021

Gold Time for Consolidation and Lower Volatility / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Gold endured a 20% correction over eight months. A 15% rebound followed that in two months. It has retraced some, but not a majority of the losses.

This action is all part of the handle of a super bullish cup and handle pattern.

The handle itself is part of a much larger bullish consolidation, but the market is approaching resistance within the handle.

Below we plot GDXJ, GDX, Gold, and Silver.

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Commodities

Monday, June 14, 2021

Is Gold Really an Inflation Hedge? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Inflation is back, and that’s usually depicted as good for gold. But is the yellow metal still a hedge against inflation, or has something changed?

Inflation has returned. This is partly understandable. After all, during the Covid recession , consumers and businesses accumulated a lot of cash as their spending was reduced, while revenues were sustained by money transfers from the government. These funds are now entering the economy, which makes demand grow much faster than supply, thus boosting prices. After some time, supply may catch up, curbing inflation. However, there is an important risk that inflation will turn out to be higher and/or more permanent than many analysts believe.

From the fundamental point of view, gold should benefit from higher inflation. But why? In theory, there are several channels by which inflation supports the yellow metal. First, the inflationary increase in the money supply makes all goods and services more expensive, including gold. Indeed, the scientific paper by Lucey and others finds a reliable long-run relationship between gold and the US money supply.
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Commodities

Friday, June 11, 2021

Gold Price $4000 – Insurance, A Hedge, An Investment / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Kelsey_Williams

After decades of concerted effort by governments and central banks, the focus away from gold as money has led to its characterization as an investment, a hedge, insurance, etc. Some still refer to it as a barbarous relic. Are any of these descriptions valid?

GOLD AS INSURANCE

There is a seemingly plausible argument for calling gold a hedge or insurance given volatile conditions in our society today. But the logic leading to those classifications ignores the single factor that affects the price of gold. That single factor is the actual loss in purchasing power of the paper money substitute in which gold is priced.

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Commodities

Friday, June 11, 2021

What Drives Gold Prices? (Don't Say "the Fed!") / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: EWI

Excerpted from Elliott Wave International's new FREE report "Gold Investor's Survival Guide: 5 Principles That Help You Stay Ahead of Price Turns."

There is a glaring hole in the popular understanding of what drives gold's price.

Mainstream finance believes the Federal Reserve's monetary and interest rate policies shape the trend.

That sounds like a solid explanation... except, the Fed officials themselves disagree!

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Commodities

Friday, June 11, 2021

Why You Need to Buy and Hold Gold Now / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

In the current environment of rising inflation and easy monetary policies, the value of gold could potentially go sharply higher from recent levels.

Unlike many traders out there, the successful gold investor has learned to “see the forest through the trees.”

Put simply, gold investors understand that the shiny yellow metal is not likely to go straight up in price. It can, however, be expected to trend higher and over time, moving well beyond all-time highs.

Modern investors, who have grown accustomed to the free-for-all that is the stock market, often find themselves asking why they ought to buy and hold gold. The savvy investor, on the other hand, understands that you cannot afford not to own gold bullion.

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Commodities

Thursday, June 10, 2021

Gold’s Inflation Utility / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Gary_Tanashian

Gold is okay, but not yet unique

There are times when gold is an okay inflation hedge, while under-performing the likes of industrial metals, oil/energy, materials, etc. During those times, if you’re doggedly precious metals focused you should consider silver, which, as a hybrid precious metal/industrial commodity, has more pro-cyclical inflation utility than gold.

But as I have argued for much of the last year, if the inflated situation is working toward cyclical progress (as it is currently) then there is a world full of trades and investments out there to choose from, many of which are trouncing gold (which, as I have belabored for the better part of 2 decades now, is not about price but instead, value) in the inflated price casino.

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Commodities

Thursday, June 10, 2021

The Fuel Of The Future That’s 9 Times More Efficient Than Lithium / Commodities / Energy Resources

By: OilPrice_Com

...

 


Commodities

Wednesday, June 09, 2021

Gold Mining Stocks: Which Door Will Investors Choose? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

With the current situation suggestive of a Monty Hall problem, investors are clinging to the first, bullish door. But what if a different option is more likely?

The Monty Hall problem is a form of a probability puzzle, and what it shows is immensely unintuitive. Suppose you are on a game show, and you need to choose one of three doors. Behind one of them is a car and behind the others, goats. You pick a door, and then the host (who knows what’s behind them) opens one of the remaining doors, behind which there is a goat. The host now asks: “Do you want to change your door choice for the remaining doors?” So, what do you do?

It turns out that if you change the door, the probability of winning the car increases… two times! You have a 2/3 chance, instead of a 1/3. Tremendously unintuitive, indeed, but what if the same is happening on the market now? With a bullish prospect representing the door of the first choice, and the technicals and fundamentals the host’s help, wouldn’t it be safer to switch the door to win eventually?

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Commodities

Monday, June 07, 2021

The Return of Inflation. Can Gold Withstand the Dark Side? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Inflation broke into the economy violently. It’s a destructive, dark force. But gold can resist it, being after all a much stronger asset than Anakin Skywalker.

Last month, I wrote that “inflation is knock, knock, knockin’ on golden door”. I was wrong. Inflation didn’t knock, it broke down the door! Indeed, as the chart below shows, the core CPI surged 3%, while the overall CPI annual rate soared 4.2% in April – this is twice the Fed’s target!
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Commodities

Monday, June 07, 2021

When Markets Get Scared and Reverse / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 wasted another good opportunity to rise – one where the credit markets were largely aligned. Is it a sign of upcoming tremors that the 500-strong index couldn‘t defend the daily gains? Commodities weren‘t under pressure, the dollar wasn‘t surging (looking at the closing prices), precious metals did well, and even lumber enjoyed a white candle again.

Inflation expectations retreated, and so did Treasury yields – what‘s holding stocks then? Neither uncertainty about the Fed policy, nor surging inflation cutting into P&L, nor crashing bonds – what we‘re seeing is run of the mill volatility as stocks move both into a structurally higher inflation environment, and await Fed moves which are much farther down the time line than the markets appreciate. Heck, even the option traders keep undergoing the earlier announced shift to complacency.

Yes, the taper talk has dialed back the inflation trades to a degree, but hasn‘t knocked them off in the least. In a reflation, both stocks and commodities do well, and we‘re still far away from worrying about weakening GDP growth rates (today‘s ADP and unemployment data are a good proof thereof) – in my view, worries about inflation not retreating nearly enough during this Treasury market lull (taking up this summer) would come into the picture first.

Reopening trades aren‘t over, the housing market activity (housing starts, new home sales) has slowed down a little while XLRE keeps running, financials remain as strong as value (yes, there is more juice in that trade still), and no mad rush into tech (growth) is underway. Capacity utilization isn‘t at the top of the pre-corona range exactly, and oil prices (these serve as additional tax, a drag on the economy) aren‘t biting nearly enough. The job market isn‘t at the strongest either, and the hours worked don‘t match prior extremes either. Last but not least, global supply chains haven‘t entirely recovered to meet the reopenings-boosted demand.

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Commodities

Monday, June 07, 2021

Is A New Superfuel About To Take Over Energy Markets? / Commodities / Energy Resources

By: Oilprice_Com

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