Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Thursday, February 01, 2018

Gold Price Forecast 2018 - February Update / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The gold price had a good start for 2018, rising from 1310 at the start of January to a high of $1367 with the most recent trading price of $1351. Which is set against my forecast for 2018 for the gold price to first target resistance $1375, an eventual break of which would propel the Gold price towards a 2018 target of $1500, and then further for the Gold price to ultimately target a trend towards $1800.

Thursday, February 01, 2018

2018 Gold Price Forecast and Predictions / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: GoldSilver

Most price forecasts aren’t worth more than an umbrella in a hurricane. There are so many factors, so many ever-changing variables and dynamics, that even the most educated guess almost always ends up wrong.

Further, some forecasts base their predictions on one issue. “Interest rates will rise so gold will fall.” That’s not even an accurate statement, let alone a sensible prediction (it’s the real rate that affects gold prices—the rate minus inflation).

Thursday, February 01, 2018

Four Key Trends for Gold Market in 2018 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The World Gold Council published its gold market outlook for 2018. Will gold continue its January rally or should we expect declines?

Solid Gold’s Performance in 2017

The World Gold Council begins its report with a short summary of 2017. The organization points out that gold performed relatively well, given the fact that the global economy picked up, risk assets rose in value, while the Fed hiked interest rates three times. Against this backdrop, the price of gold in U.S. dollars rose 13.5 percent, the biggest annual gain since 2010, actually outperforming many other asset classes.

Wednesday, January 31, 2018

Plunging Stocks to Push Gold Higher? Fat Chance! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The bearish case for gold continues as fresh new bearish confirmations have just emerged. You have already read about gold’s huge weekly volume, gold stocks’ underperformance and many other factors. Yesterday’s session provides us with even more bearish details. But, there’s one thing that looks promising for gold bulls – the possibility of a big and sharp decline in the stock market. Some expect money coming out of the stock market to flow into precious metals, thus pushing their prices higher. As much as we love gold (and silver even more) as a very long-term investment, in today’s analysis, we dismiss the above stock-based hope.

Tuesday, January 30, 2018

Why Is The Shale Oil Industry Still Not Profitable? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Echoing the criticism of too much hype surrounding U.S. shale from the Saudi oil minister last week, a new report finds that shale drilling is still largely not profitable. Not only that, but costs are on the rise and drillers are pursuing “irrational production.”

Riyadh-based Al Rajhi Capital dug into the financials of a long list of U.S. shale companies, and found that “despite rising prices most firms under our study are still in losses with no signs of improvement.” The average return on asset for U.S. shale companies “is still a measly 0.8 percent,” the financial services company wrote in its report.

Tuesday, January 30, 2018

Gold Sits in the Central Banks’ Claws / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Central banks remain powerful creatures. Will gold escape from their grip?

Bank of Japan

It’s a hot period in central banking. On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy on hold. Kuroda tried to convince the markets that the BoJ won’t follow the Fed towards an exit from easy monetary policy soon. “We haven’t reached the stage of thinking about how to handle an exit [from monetary easing]”, he said. The BoJ Governor also insisted that the bank is fully committed to easy monetary policy and is not about to scale back its stimulus.

Tuesday, January 30, 2018

Has Gold Bottomed? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest movements in the gold and silver markets.

Monday, January 29, 2018

Gold - You Must Own a Monster Box; North Korea Close to Being Able to Destroy U.S. / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason: Jim, you're a very well-traveled individual who has his finger on the pulse of what's going on, not just here in the states, but around the world. I know you were just in Europe. Is complacency an issue all over the globe or is it just a Western World thing or an American thing? What are people thinking and doing in other parts of the world? I know that's a pretty broad question, but just speak to complacency and what others are doing here to protect themselves for what may be coming.

Monday, January 29, 2018

THE Week. THE Record. THE Extreme Sign for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

To say that gold’s weekly volume was big is like to say that snails are not the fastest animal. You can't say that it’s a lie, but it doesn't really convey the entire truth, either. Gold’s weekly volume was highest EVER. Yes, ever. There was not a single week – not ever during the 2011 top or when gold declined in 2008 – when gold moved on volume that was higher than what we saw last week.

Is this significant? You bet! The chart below provides details (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Monday, January 29, 2018

Gold & Gold Stocks Approaching Resistance / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Gold and gold stocks have enjoyed an excellent rebound since their December lows. Over the past six weeks Gold rebounded from a low of $1238 all the way to $1365 in recent days. The miners meanwhile rebounded nearly 18% (GDX) and 21% (GDXJ). However, these markets are approaching important resistance levels and at a time when sentiment is becoming stretched and the US Dollar has become very oversold.

Take a look at the charts of Gold, GDX and GDXJ. Gold has reached the September 2017 highs while GDX came within 2%-3%. GDXJ is lagging but came within less than 5%. Another round of buying over a few days should be enough to push the miners to resistance.

Sunday, January 28, 2018

Precious Metals and US Dollar Set To Rollover / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

We’ve been warning our members that this move was going to happen and it looks like it is just starting to initiate.  The US Dollar and Metals markets are about to rotate in dramatic form over the next few weeks – possibly months.  Right now, what we can tell you is that our cycle analysis and adaptive learning models are showing we are in for a very dramatic move in these markets.

This first chart is a GOLD Weekly chart showing our adaptive learning price modeling system and the predicted price activity going forward.  One can easily see this weekly double top formation is predicting prices to drop by nearly 5~8% over the next few weeks before basing near the $1250 to $1275 levels.  This should be a very clear warning to metals investors that Gold and Silver are setting up for a lower price rotation before the next big move higher.

Saturday, January 27, 2018

Resurgent US Oil Industry Priming the Economic Pump / Commodities / Oil Companies

By: Richard_Mills

Crude oil prices dropped from $110 a barrel in the summer of 2014 to about $30 in January 2016. The effect on oil producers and oil-producing countries was dramatic. The Russian ruble plunged, and the Canadian dollar slipped to below 70 cents US for the first time since 2003, kicking the country into recession and snuffing out the oil boom in Alberta. Many foreign companies operating in the high-cost Canadian oil sands pulled up stakes.

Friday, January 26, 2018

Gold Price Upleg Breaking Out / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold’s strong upleg accelerated this week, powering to major new breakout highs.  Speculators rushed to buy gold futures following surprising weak-dollar comments from the US Treasury Secretary, which hit the US dollar hard.  That boosted gold to critical technical levels that should really intensify the shift back to bullish psychology.  This mounting gold breakout confirms gold’s bull market is very much alive and well.

While this week’s surge put gold on many more traders’ radars, it has actually been picking up steam for 6 weeks now.  Gold’s latest major interim low of $1242 came a couple days before the Fed’s latest rate hike in mid-December.  The gold-futures speculators who dominate this metal’s short-term price action have always had a deep and irrational fear of Fed rate hikes.  Historically gold has thrived in rate-hike cycles!

Friday, January 26, 2018

What Could Push Crude Oil To $100? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

If anyone thought the latest oil market outlooks of the EIA and the IEA are upbeat, here’s an even more upbeat one from Energy Aspects: The consultancy expects crude demand this year to grow by 1.7 million bpd, and says Brent could touch above $100 a barrel in 2019.

According to Energy Aspects, the reason for the further jump in prices will be a drop in new production outside the U.S. shale patch. It’s a little hard to buy that, however, if one remembers that there is 1.8 million bpd in production capacity ready to be tapped again once OEPC and Russia taper their production cuts. That alone should take care of the demand growth that the consultancy predicts for this year. That is, unless it booms by 2 million bpd, which is the top of the range forecast by Energy Aspects. But even then, the U.S. and Russia alone could take care of it: The Russian state majors are itching to expand production in eastern Siberia.

Friday, January 26, 2018

Reversal Day in Precious Metals ? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: SurfCity

Here are a few charts on the USD, Gold, Silver and GDX showing the reversals today. One day does not make a trend, however, and tomorrow is a new trading day.

Thursday, January 25, 2018

Gold as a Hedge Against Hyperinflation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Michael_J_Kosares

LETTER TO THE EDITOR

Dear Mr. Kosares,

I have read your articles with great interest and pleasure. I believe we are in a corner which is far from the mainstream.  In reference to buying gold as protection, I also read stories like “sell-cryptos-buy-gold,” but it is never told what will happen when there is indeed hyperinflation.

Thursday, January 25, 2018

A New Commodities Bull Market is Emerging / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Peter_Degraaf

We’ve all watched in amazement, while the equities markets around the world have risen to new highs.  On Wall Street hardly a week goes by without a new record.  There comes a time however when a sector becomes so overbought, that smart money begins to leave and search for a sector that has been overlooked.   That moment is now at hand, as can be seen in our first chart – courtesy sources listed.

Thursday, January 25, 2018

Gold Gains a Powerful Friend / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Yesterday, gold won an influential supporter in the White House. Who is he?

The Enemy of Gold’s Enemy Is Gold’s Friend

As the ancient proverb goes, my enemy’s enemy is my friend. Although it is usually employed in foreign policy, this concept also applies to finance. Given the negative correlation between the greenback and gold, the enemies of the U.S. dollar are generally gold’s friends.

Thursday, January 25, 2018

Gold Jumps To Crucial Technical Level. Important Action Coming Up / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: John_Rubino

After what seems like a decade in the shadow of tech stocks and cryptocurrencies, gold and silver are rocking again. Which of course leaves everyone wondering if this is the beginning of the long-awaited epic run, or just a head fake preceding yet another grinding, protracted, soul-sucking decline.

The following chart has a couple of technical indicators that, if history still matters, shed some light on the challenges gold now faces. The first is the 50-day moving average, shown here as the thin line that tracks the more colorful price line. Note how when gold’s price spikes above the moving average, it is, in technical terms, “overbought.” In other words, it’s ahead of itself and has to fall to get back into sync with longer-term momentum.

Thursday, January 25, 2018

Have You Seen Palladium’s Tradable Price Pattern? / Commodities / Palladium

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Are you prepared for the next big move in the metals markets?  Would you like to know what to expect in the immediate future that could save you thousands of dollars?  Then pay attention to this message as we share something most traders are overlooking right now.

Our research team at Technical Traders Ltd. have spent years developing our skills and financial modeling systems.  Right now, many traders are seeing the big upward price swings in the metals as a sign that prices will continue higher.  Well, in the long run, they are correct. But right now we believe the metals will roll over and trend lower for the next few weeks setting up for the next leg higher.