Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, June 04, 2018
Unbelievable Analogy in Gold & Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold moved lower in May and it’s also down in June, but the price action is far from being spectacular. The overall volatility is still very low and the situation in the precious metals sector is simply extremely boring. But with May now being over and with a new month, new factors are likely to come into play and the odds are that this month will be anything but boring. Especially, if we see the continuation in the analogy that practically nobody seems to realize.
Let’s move right to it and analyze the gold market from the long-term point of view.
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Monday, June 04, 2018
Inflation & Precious Metals to Rise, Fed to Act Late / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Axel_Merk
Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back Axel Merk, President and Chief Investment Officer of Merk Investments and author of the book Sustainable Wealth. Axel is a highly sought after guest at financial conferences and on news outlets throughout the world and it's great to have him back on with us.
Axel, it's a pleasure to have you join us again today and thanks very much for coming on.
Axel Merk: Great to be with you. What a week.
Mike Gleason: Exactly. Well, Axel when we spoke to you in February the equity markets were in the midst of a sell off and some significant volatility, which had been extraordinarily low, came roaring back to life. Since then, the stocks have recovered some. The S&P regained about half of what it lost by the end of February and has been trading in a range since then.
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Saturday, June 02, 2018
Silver Mining Stocks SIL ETF Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
The major silver miners’ stocks remain deeply out of favor, languishing near multi-year lows. Of course that reflects investors’ lack of interest in silver itself. It has greatly lagged, not following gold higher like usual over the past year and a half. That’s really torpedoed silver-stock sentiment, making for a challenging environment for silver miners. But they’re weathering it as their recently-released Q1’18 results show.
Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 45 calendar days after quarter-ends. Canadian companies have similar requirements. In other countries with half-year reporting, many companies still partially report quarterly.
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Saturday, June 02, 2018
Crude Oil Price Bulls’ Wishes vs. Reality / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Wednesday’s rally that followed Tuesday’s reversal gave hope for a sustainable move higher. But only to those, who focus on the daily price movement only, without taking bigger picture into consideration. As we explained last Friday, there were bearish implications of the weekly candlestick pattern even before it was completed. In the following analyses we wrote the same about the monthly candlestick and since May is over, the candlestick is completed, and we can say that our previous expectations were met. What do the more long-term patterns indicate for the crude oil’s future and how much can we trust the recent rally?
Friday, June 01, 2018
Once Again, Gold Is Not Commodit / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
We know this… we really know it. This is awkward. Gold is a metal. This is why it used to be money for thousands of years: it was rare, tangible and its supply couldn’t be increased at will. An ideal store of value. So why are we saying that gold is not commodity?
We mean here not the physical attributes of gold, but the approach to valuing it. You can model it either as a currency, or as a commodity. From the investment point of view, we always treated gold as a currency, so in the previous part of this edition of the Market Overview, we discussed – in line with that approach – the three most important drivers affecting the price of gold. Now, we will present the final critique of treating gold as a commodity.
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Friday, June 01, 2018
Gold Stocks Back in the Volatility Saddle Again / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: The_Gold_Report
Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger dissects his volatility trades.
One week ago today, I made the following commentary:
Read full article... Read full article..."Finally, I am officially revisiting the "volatility trade" (VIX: CBOE Volatililty Index) but unlike February where I used the UVXY (ProShares Trust Ultra VIX Short) as my proxy for the increase in volatility, I am using the TVIX (VelocityShares Daily 2X VIX ST ETN) because it is a double leverage ETF for the VIX but has better leverage than the UVXY. UVXY used to be a triple-leverage play on volatility but the slippage due to its dependence on futures became too difficult to navigate and they cut the leverage from 3:1 to 2:1. I had a 250% gain on this in February but gave back 9.84% in April. I am long 50% of the TVIX position from yesterday at $4.95 and am using the opening this morning to add another 25% in the $5.25 range. I will again use a 10% stop-loss but since the 52-week low is $4.60, that will be the exit level. Upside target will be $8.00 remembering of course that the 52-week high was $26.56.
The month of May is rapidly coming to a close, which starts what is historically the worst six months of the year. With the situations in Turkey and Italy worsening, with the North Korean summit in question, central banks engaged in "quantitative tightening," rising oil prices, and the possibility that the China-U.S. trade talks go south, markets are going to be in peril as summer illiquidity arrives. For this reason, gold "should" be the go-to asset, but I am banking on volatility rather than gold as the preferred method of riding the correction."
Friday, June 01, 2018
A Purrrfect Gold Price Setup! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Peter_Degraaf
Featured is the weekly gold chart. The green arrows point to ‘upside reversals’, developing after price dropped below the 50WMA. The blue arrows point to a positive follow-through, following an upside reversal. A similar situation back in December enabled gold to rise for 5 out of 6 weeks! The current rise has the potential to jump above the $1365 resistance area with a target at $1395. The RSI is neutral, but the A/D line is positive. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 31, 2018
Emerging Market Meltdown Could Undermine Oil Price Rally / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Saudi Arabia and Russia just destroyed the oil price rally, potentially putting an end to all the speculation about what the group might do next. But higher production doesn’t necessarily mean higher oil prices are entirely out of the question, and in fact, the oil market is still faced with a ton of uncertainty.
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Thursday, May 31, 2018
Topping USD’s Implications for Gold Investors / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The euro plunged, the USD Index soared and gold… just stayed put. There was no meaningful action except for the big intraday volatility that ended in a rather small decline. Can one infer anything at all from the above combination of factors? Yes, if one knows where to look.
Let’s start by recalling what was the likely reason behind the recent strength in the precious metals in the first place and why did gold move (a bit) higher along with the USD Index.
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Thursday, May 31, 2018
This is When Gold Will Soar… / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Despite the insistence of some, precious metals have not been in a bull market. After a big pop at the start of 2016, the sector has trended lower. Sure, Gold has traded up towards a major breakout but Silver and the gold stocks have trended lower. When the US Dollar corrected significantly, the stock market outperformed precious metals. Does that sound like a Gold bull market to you? The moribund performance has left us wondering what could turn the tide. A quick study of Fed history with the context of current conditions is very instructive as to when Gold could begin a true bull market.
Wednesday, May 30, 2018
How Far Is it from North Korea to Italy? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Almost 5500 miles ( 8,800 kilometers ) . That’s the distance between Pyongyang and Rome. It seems a lot, right? But not for gold, the truly global monetary asset. In recent days, the price of the yellow metal has immediately reacted to the developments around both North Korea and Italy. What has happened?
Tuesday, May 29, 2018
Silver Trading in Tight $1 Range As Pressure Builds For A Breakout / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: GoldCore
- Trump Cancels Historic Summit with North Korea
– US 10-Year Falls Below 3%, Gold Jumps Back Above $1300
– “Inflation Overshoot Could Be Helpful” – Latest FOMC Minutes
– Gold Demand in Turkey as Lira falls sharply, true inflation near 40%
– EU Crisis Looming as Italy Plan Outright ‘Money Printing’ with ‘Mini-Bots’
– Silver Trading in Tight $1 range, Pressure Building for a Breakout (see chart)
Saturday, May 26, 2018
Three Drivers of Gold, Second Look / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Let’s take a second look at the drivers of gold. We have already stated that the three most important factors are: the real interest rates, the U.S. dollar, and the risk aversion. Fair enough. But we have presented just the first approximation. We need to dig deeper. Why?
First, all these variables are connected together. Many analysts and investors who listen to them often make a mistake, assuming that the forces which push one driver have no effect on the other inputs into the value of gold. This is a dangerous delusion, which may expose investors to heavy losses.
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Saturday, May 26, 2018
Gold Junior Stocks GDXJ ETF Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
The junior gold miners have largely been shunned over the past year or so, condemned to listlessly drift near lows. Their stock prices have suffered serious collateral damage from stubbornly-bearish gold sentiment. But they are faring much better under the hood than their battered visages suggest, with their latest quarterly results revealing strong fundamentals. Juniors are ready to soar when gold sentiment turns.
Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 45 calendar days after quarter-ends. Canadian companies have similar requirements. In other countries with half-year reporting, many companies still partially report quarterly.
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Friday, May 25, 2018
Crude Oil: It’s Here! / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
In the previous alerts we let you know how the situation in the crude oil was becoming increasingly bearish, but that it was not yet bearish enough to justify any action regarding the price. The risk was still too high to do so, and we explained that waiting for the confirmation was the preferable course of action. The confirmation has arrived.
Thursday, May 24, 2018
June Hike Is Coming. Will Gold Survive? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The message from the recent FOMC minutes is clear: brace yourself for the interest rate hike next month. Should gold bulls be worried? Gold’s reaction shows that not necessarily. You will find more details in our today’s analysis.
June Hike Is Virtually a Foregone Conclusion
Yesterday, the U.S. central bank published minutes from the recent FOMC meeting. What are the take-home messages from them?
Thursday, May 24, 2018
What if This Week’s Rally in Gold is Already Over? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
In yesterday’s analysis, we explained how it’s possible for the precious metals sector to move higher in very short term and at the same time still form the next local bottom close to $1,250. The key part of the analysis was that this week’s turning point may turn out to be declines’ starting, not ending. We also argued that we could see a small decline in the USD Index and that might be enough to cool down traders’ emotions. It seems that we have seen just that, and now the question is: how soon can we expect gold to decline?
Wednesday, May 23, 2018
A GOLD Bull market is beginning / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Enda_Glynn
Hello everyone!
I hope the sun is shining wherever you find yourself!
Things are looking up for GOLD at last!
We may well have just created a very important low this week, it is now time to focus on this turn to see if we can nail the beginning of this turn.
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Wednesday, May 23, 2018
Is It Time To Just Sell All Your Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
For those that follow me regularly, you will know that I have been tracking a set-up for the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD), which I analyze as a proxy for the gold market. I also believe that gold can outperform the general equity market once we confirm a long-term break out has begun, and I still think we can see it in occur in 2018. This week, I will provide an update to GLD.
Wednesday, May 23, 2018
What’s Next for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Gold failed to breakout in the spring and recently lost weekly support at $1310. Meanwhile, the gold stocks have held up well in recent weeks (considering Gold) but still have much to prove. Silver couldn’t rally much when its net speculative position was at an all time low. The question now is where do things go from here. The price action is not bullish but with a Fed hike looming and negative sentiment, Gold could be poised to snapback after testing lower levels.