Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Friday, November 11, 2016

Japanese Tales of Common Insanity and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Einstein allegedly once claimed that insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. It turns out that central bankers are really insane. Their loose, unconventional monetary policy has not worked in Japan for the last quarter-century, but it did not prevent the Bank of Japan from adopting zero interest rates targets for ten-year Japanese government bonds and from the commitment from overshooting its inflation target. But let’s leave the analysis of the central bankers’ denial of reality to psychologists and focus on the short summary of the Japanese economy in the last quarter-century. Such an analysis would outline the necessary context for the examination of the relationship between the BoJ’s actions, the USD/JPY exchange rate and gold.

Thursday, November 10, 2016

Gold Just Waiting on the US Dollar / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Gary_Savage

Gold is resisting the bounce in the dollar, as it has done in the past. Once the dollar is ready to roll over into an intermediate cycle low gold will be ready to fly.

Thursday, November 10, 2016

Uncertainty Drives Central Bank Gold Purchases / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: GoldCore

Dedollarization and Uncertainty drive Central Bank Demand for Gold

• Central banks added 81.7t to their gold reserves in the third quarter
• Total central banks purchases in the year-to-date reach 271.1t.
• Fellow-SCO member Kazakhstan and Belarus also had to holdings
• 90% of reserve managers intend to increase or maintain gold reserves.
• “The case for gold remains compelling for reserve managers” state WGC
• Unconventional monetary policies will underpin gold demand in coming years.

Thursday, November 10, 2016

Trump to Send Gold Price to $10,000 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Submissions

Trump is going to the White House…

Just as I called on ABC Australia two weeks ago.

Thursday, November 10, 2016

Trump Win Signals $1,500 Gold and $24 Silver, predicts Nick Barisheff / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Nick_Barisheff

According to Nick Barisheff, President and CEO of Bullion Management Group Inc. (BMG), "A Trump US presidential victory signals US$1,500 an ounce for gold and US$24 for silver in the intermediate term."

"Trump voters have now injected an unprecedented level of uncertainty into global financial markets," continued Barisheff. "Investors prefer clarity, and until President-elect Trump fully clarifies his economic, trade and foreign policy positions, investors will be in a high-alert state of uncertainty. Roiling markets will compel investors to purchase safe-haven assets, especially precious metals."

Wednesday, November 09, 2016

Gold Surges 5% After America Votes Trump President / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: GoldCore

• Gold surged over 5% – from $1,270/oz to $1,335/oz prior to profit taking
• Gold jumped to its highest level in six weeks on early reports that Trump had won the race to the White House; Largest gains since Brexit shock
• For the next few days, we can expect to follow the “Brexit playbook”
• “We are looking at very real prospects that the Fed would defer that rate hike into 2017…”

Gold has surged more than 3% to over $1,300/oz today after the shock election of Donald J. Trump as the next President of the United States of America. At one stage gold was 5% higher having risen from $1,270/oz to $1,335/oz as the dollar and stocks globally saw sharp falls.

Wednesday, November 09, 2016

Uncertainty about OPEC and US Election Leads to Oil Price Drop / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Jason_Hamlin

During the third quarter of 2016, global gold production dropped by 0.5%. Miners brought 846.8t onto the market versus 851.2t during Q3 of 2015. While this isn’t a huge decline, it marks the second consecutive quarter that gold production was down versus the previous year. The overall trend of plateauing output remains in place and has increased the odds that we are approaching, or have already reached, peak gold. The chart of annual mine production is shown below.

Tuesday, November 08, 2016

Credibility – Confidence – Chaos and GOLD! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: DeviantInvestor

The corrupted Republican and Democratic parties in the U.S. have put forth two of the most despised candidates – ever. One candidate is probably more corrupt than LBJ and both parties are rapidly losing credibility. Ask yourself, does either party speak for anyone but the political and financial elite?

Tuesday, November 08, 2016

Uncertain US Election Outcome and Uncertainty After Bodes Well For Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: GoldCore

• Polls suggest Clinton to win but as with Brexit is chance of surprise
• PredictWise gives Clinton an 89% chance of becoming President-elect, giving just Trump just an 11% chance.
• Gold price may move about 1.8% to 4% if result is uncertain
• Demand for gold and silver is up this week by a factor of 25 percent
• Sales of American Eagle gold coins have climbed 23%
• Gold to benefit from ‘Punch and Judy’ election

Tuesday, November 08, 2016

Silver's Roadmap / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: P_Radomski_CFA

History tends to repeat itself and the more similarities to a past pattern we have, the bigger likelihood that it will continue to repeat. The day-to-date price swings of silver may seem erratic, but from a broader point of view, they are repeating – to a great extent – the same pattern that we saw in the past. The most interesting thing is what followed that past pattern.

Sunday, November 06, 2016

Gold Stocks Proprietary Cycle Indicator Remains Down / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest movements in gold and silver, noting the markets will be volatile until the election is over.

Sunday, November 06, 2016

A Most Important Gold Ratio Chart… / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Rambus_Chartology

Tonight is a good night to post one of the ratio combo charts we’ve been following for a very long time , which compares the TLT:GLD ratio to the GLD. Below the ratio chart is a ten year weekly bar chart for GLD. There are many ways to analyze a ratio combo chart like this which can help one look for the intermediate to longer term trends.

Sunday, November 06, 2016

US Election Uncertainty Now Influencing Gold & Silver Prices / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: MoneyMetals

Most of us consider this year’s presidential election as the wildest and most unpredictable we’ve ever seen, but you wouldn’t know it by looking at the markets. Gold and silver spent most of the past three weeks going nowhere fast. Between Oct. 6th and Oct. 27th silver traded within ten cents of $17.60/oz. – an extraordinarily tight range. Precious metals generally thrive on uncertainty, but the markets have been unfazed and instead have appeared to be paralyzed.

Saturday, November 05, 2016

More Weakness Ahead for Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The gold stocks continue to correct their epic +150% rebound that began in January and ran into the summer. Last week it was the poor relative strength in the miners that hinted the correction had more to go in both time and price. This week, it was the miners failure at a confluence of resistance, even with Gold trading above $1300, that argued for more weakness ahead. While most of the damage has already been done, our work argues for more weakness before a buying opportunity.

Saturday, November 05, 2016

Gold Will Win US Presidential Election 2016 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: GoldCore

• Gold could rise to at least 8% following election
• Trump victory will push gold up 10%
• Uncertainty pre and post election likely to support the gold price
• Election jitters are one of several drivers for the gold price
• Trump win will release a ‘wave of risk aversion’
• Safe-haven demand maybe set to rise in coming weeks

Friday, November 04, 2016

Will BoJ’s New Framework Become a Turning Point for Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The Bank of Japan announced in September a cocktail of new monetary policy measures, called “QQE with Yield Curve Control”. Let’s analyze these innovations in detail and discuss their potential implications for the gold market. As we have already noted in the Gold News Monitor, the package consists of two components:

• The promise to keep expanding the monetary base until inflation “exceeds the price stability target of 2 percent and stays above the target in a stable manner”;
• The pledge to cap 10-year government bond yields at zero percent.

Friday, November 04, 2016

Silver Price Discovery and The Illusion of Progress / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

As of the close of trading Tuesday, silver spot prices have rise through the key 50 day moving average, most likely the result of short covering by the managed money traders - along with new shorts added by the commercial traders.

In other words, the lock-down pattern of price discovery driven by these two speculative classes continues unabated and disconnected from physical reality.

Friday, November 04, 2016

END OF THE U.S. MAJOR OIL INDUSTRY ERA: Big Trouble At ExxonMobil / Commodities / Oil Companies

By: Steve_St_Angelo

The era of the mighty U.S. major oil industry is coming to an end as the country’s largest petroleum company is in big trouble.  While ExxonMobil has been the most profitable U.S. oil company in the past, it suffered its worst year on record.

For example, just four years ago, ExxonMobil enjoyed a $45 billion net income profit in 2012.  Now compare that to a total $5 billion net income gain for the first three-quarters of 2016.  If Exxon continues to report disappointing results for the remainder of the year, its net income will have declined a stunning 85% since 2012.

Actually, the situation at Exxon is much worse if we dig a little deeper.

Thursday, November 03, 2016

Will London Gold Market Self Destruct? Ripe For China Take-over? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: GoldCore

• London Gold Market has been unchallenged for nearly 100 years
• So opaque that quotes of its $5 trillion size are estimates
• Five new offerings are set to appear in the market in the next six months
• Increased fragmentation set to reduce liquidity
• A share of gold price discovery is ripe to be taken by China
• Disruption in the London Gold Market gives opportunity to the East to take more control of the market.

Thursday, November 03, 2016

The Chartology of Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Rambus_Chartology

Tonight I would like to look at some gold charts as it has been showing some relative strength since October. We can even go back to February of this year which shows a possible big diamond consolidation pattern building out. Regardless of whatever trading discipline one uses the last nine months of price action has been difficult at best to read.