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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Wednesday, August 12, 2020

A Tale of Two Precious Metal Bulls / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Richard_Mills

This week gold prices have smashed one record after another, well surpassing the previous high set in 2011, of $1,920 an ounce. 

At time of writing, spot gold’s last bid was $2,064.10.

The usual suspects are behind the surge, ie., worrisome covid-19 infections, geopolitical concerns especially US-China tensions over trade (President Trump tried to force China-owned TikTok into selling its US operations) and the South China Sea, fears of inflation on the back of unlimited monetary stimulus, and low interest rates worldwide. 

Bullion prices have climbed more than 30% year to date, as investors choose gold as a safe haven amid widespread economic uncertainty created by the pandemic. They believe gold will hold its value better than other assets such as stocks and bonds. 

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Commodities

Wednesday, August 12, 2020

How Does the Gold Fit the Corona World? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

For a long time, pundits talked excitedly about the rapid, V-shaped recovery. I never shared this view, finding it too optimistic and without basis in reality. Like Jeff Goldblum in Jurassic Park, I hate being right all the time, but it really seems that I was right about this issue. According to the July World Flash report by IHS Markit, we can read that “the new wave of infections has reduced the probability of a V-shaped cycle (…) and increased the risk of a double-dip recession (W-shaped cycle).”

The problem is the rising number of Covid-19 infections in large economies such as Brazil, India, or the United States, as the chart below shows (there is also the resurgence in cases in other countries, such as Australia or Japan, although the absolute numbers of infections are smaller).
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Commodities

Tuesday, August 11, 2020

A Simple Way to Preserve Your Wealth Amid Uncertainty / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Nick_Barisheff

The term ‘unprecedented’ has been used to explain 2020 throughout the world. Whether it be the simultaneous triple bubble that is currently being experienced within equity, bond, and real estate markets, or the volume of quantitative easing deployed by central banks in order to combat Covid-19, 2020 has been an unprecedented year thus far to say the least. Safety and stability of capital has been difficult to find, as many volatility indicators, such as the VIX, continue to point towards future uncertainty. Gold, however, has gone against the grain in 2020, as it has continued its strong historical performance and has done an excellent job at preserving wealth. As of July 31, 2020, gold has appreciated 29.02% in US dollars (USD) and 33.20% in Canadian dollars (CAD). These results should not come as a surprise to investors, as gold has increased an average of 10.6% (USD) and 9.8% (CAD) since 2000. With tremendous upside available for gold amid future uncertainty within the markets, and a proven historical track record of strong performance, it is surprising that gold does not hold a larger allocation size within most investor portfolios.

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Commodities

Tuesday, August 11, 2020

Precious Metals Complex Impulse Move : Where Is next Resistance? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Rambus_Chartology

Tonight I would like to go over some PM charts looking for a possible place for our current impulse move to find some strong resistance that could lead to the next consolidation phase. It’s not going to be easy as there are several possibilities that could work. Lets put the Chartology to work and see what we come up with.

There was something fairly rare last week that happened to gold which sliced through its 2011 all time high at 1920 like a hot knife through butter. Normally when an old high is reached there is usually some initial resistance even if the breakout is going to occur. Many times we’ll see a small consolidation pattern form just below the old high that will give the stock the energy it needs to finally takeout overhead resistance. There is another way that an important resistance line can be taken out and that is with a gap which doesn’t show up on the gold chart but there is a gap on GLD close to the 2011 high.

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Commodities

Tuesday, August 11, 2020

Gold Miners Junior Stcks Buying Spree / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Richard_Mills

Canadians, at least those fortunate enough to enjoy a long weekend, returned to their desks Tuesday to watch gold prices crack another milestone - $2,000 per ounce - as the spectacular summer rally for the precious metal continues. 

At time of writing, spot gold’s last bid was $2,019.20, marking a $42 gain since Monday’s trading session. Silver prices also experienced a major leg up, with spot silver posting a $1.68 increase to $26.01, as of 17:05 Eastern time - a 7-year high.  

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Commodities

Monday, August 10, 2020

Revisiting Our Silver and Gold Predictions – Get Ready For Higher Prices / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

If you have been following our research into Gold and Silver over the past years, then you were already prepared for the recent rally that has taken many investors by surprise.  This year, 2020, Gold and Silver are set up to have their best year of price appreciation over the past 40+ years.  It is no consequence that this is taking place right now.  Our cycle research and our predictive modeling systems have helped us stay well ahead of this move.  In fact, way back in early 2019, we were already warning this type of price move would take place and suggesting a target price level of $3750 for Gold was not out of the question.

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Commodities

Friday, August 07, 2020

Silver Bull Market Update / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Gary_Tanashian

Now, I have not gone raving silver bug on you. The title says “silver bull” because that is what silver is in, a bull market by definition of having taken out the 2016 high of 21.23. We targeted that point as a cyclical bull market gateway, silver cut through it like a knife through warm butter… and there you have it. A key higher high. I don’t apologize for any of the above. It is fact.

So let’s catch up on Gold’s wild little bro as it hangs tough below the NFTRH ultimate cyclical bull target, which has been the 24-26 long-term resistance zone (per the 3rd chart below). Silver made a violent hit and recoiled, but…

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Commodities

Friday, August 07, 2020

This Inflation-Adjusted Silver Chart Tells An Interesting Story / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

This inflation-adjusted silver chart (from macrotrends.net) tells an interesting story:

The level around $18 appears to have been very critical, especially since it is the 1920 and 1968 inflation adjusted high.

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Commodities

Friday, August 07, 2020

NATURAL GAS BEGINS UPSIDE BREAKOUT MOVE / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Chris_Vermeulen

First, we want to say “It took long enough!” and we’re happy to see this upside move in Natural Gas.  We had been calling this move for many months.  Our predictive modeling systems and cycle systems suggested the extended bottoming formation in Natural Gas was an excellent opportunity for skilled technical traders.  Today’s big move suggests the downside price pressure is dissipating and a new bullish price trend may push Natural Gas prices above $2.85 quickly.

Our research team spotted this potential setup in April and May articles where we correctly predicted an NG rally in April (it did!) and new upside targets for NG in May. We have been keeping our subscribers up-to-date with UNG as this bottom has played out.

The upside move in late April 2020 was a cycle move that we expected to continue a bit higher.  It still presented a very nice opportunity for skilled traders to capture a 35% upside price swing.  The current, deeper, price bottom near $1.43, represents a very deep rotational bottom in Natural Gas and the current upside price move may be just starting.  Our researchers believe the initial target for this move is $2.85.  After that level is reached, if the trend continues, a higher target near $3.65 could become a very real price target.

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Commodities

Thursday, August 06, 2020

Could Gold Price Reach $7,000 by 2030? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

This bull market can be more positive than the previous one both for gold and the mining stocks.

In the last edition of the Fundamental Gold Report, I analyzed various WGC’s reports on the gold market. Today, I will focus on the issues of Alchemist – the flagship publication of the London Bullion Market Associations – I was unable to discuss during the most acute phase of the pandemic and the following economic crisis.

I’ll start with the article “Is there a place of Gold Equities in a Gold Allocation?” by James Luke from issue no. 96. The Author poses title question because gold equities performed poorly relative to the gold prices over the last 10 or even 20 years, and “investors would have been better served staying well away.” Indeed, while the gold price is up more than 250 percent since 2005, the HUI Gold Index is just about 20 percent higher.

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Commodities

Wednesday, August 05, 2020

Gold Trifecta of Key Signals for Gold Mining Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Nothing lasts forever, and the brightest flame burns itself out the fastest. That could very well apply to the current situation around PMs.

Speaking of indications pointing to the situation being excessive, let’s take a look at the USD Index.

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Commodities

Tuesday, August 04, 2020

Gold Stocks Autumn Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have rocketed higher this summer, smashing out of their usual summer-doldrums sideways grind.  That atypical strength has been driven by gold steadily marching to major new secular highs, fueled by strong investment demand.  This has carried gold stocks and the metal they mine back to their traditional strong season, which begins with robust autumn rallies usually accelerating in late summers.

Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year.  While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals.  We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions.  The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.

Gold stocks exhibit strong seasonality because their price action mirrors that of their dominant primary driver, gold.  Gold’s seasonality generally isn’t driven by supply fluctuations like grown commodities see, as its mined supply remains relatively steady year-round.  Instead gold’s major seasonality is demand-driven, with global investment demand varying considerably depending on the time in the calendar year.

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Commodities

Tuesday, August 04, 2020

Gold Miners Still Pushing That Cart of Rocks Up Hill / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Gary_Tanashian

Our hard working miner here (we’ll call him Huey) has been pushing his cart of rocks, first gently downhill from 2016 to 2018 and then uphill to a bull market since May 2019.

As tracked in NFTRH, in 2019 the macro backdrop became positive for the gold stock sector as gold entered a bull market by taking out the 1378 level and its ratios to stock markets began to rise. Gold/SPX is among the most important macro indicators to a bullish gold mining case as a gold price rising in terms of stocks is the key factor in drawing larger investment (e.g. institutions) to the sector.

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Commodities

Sunday, August 02, 2020

Corona Crisis Will Have Lasting Impact on Gold Market / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

No matter what shape the recovery is, the epidemic will likely have lasting, positive effects on the gold market.

During the most acute phase of the pandemic and the following economic crisis, there was no time to analyze various WGC’s reports on the gold market. Let’s make up for it!

I’ll start with the report “Recovery paths and impact on performance” about the gold mid-year outlook 2020. The World Gold Council notes that gold had a really excellent performance in the first half of 2020, rising almost by 17 percent (see the chart below), much higher than other major asset classes.
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Commodities

Sunday, August 02, 2020

Precious Metals Warn Of Increased Volatility Ahead / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our trading team witnessed a big drop in Platinum and Palladium prices early this morning while Gold and Silver continued to push moderately higher.  We began to question this move and investigate any historical relevance to previous patterns.  Our research team pointed out that both Platinum and Palladium rolled lower just 3 to 4 days before the breakdown in the US stock markets on February 24, 2020, while Gold and Silver were reaching recent price peaks.  Could the patterns in precious metals be a warning of another potential volatility spike and price decline in the near future?

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Commodities

Sunday, August 02, 2020

The Key USDX Sign for Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Yesterday’s session was indeed volatile around the FOMC, just like we warned, and gold even moved to its previous high, likely forming a double-top pattern. Even though gold moved higher on an intraday basis, it didn’t invalidate its previous breakdown, which was a bearish sign. Gold was likely to decline, and it is declining so far in today’s pre-market trading.

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Commodities

Saturday, August 01, 2020

Gold & Silver: Two Pictures / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Jim_Willie_CB

It is said that a picture is worth 1000 words, and thus two pictures are worth 2000 words. The entire financial system is fracturing and imploding, no exaggeration. The entire monetary system is being undermined in a true Weimar sense, in reality. Such a situation almost never has come about without a world war. Since 2001 in the Jackass opinion, the world financial war has been in progress with the imposition of anti-terrorism statutes, with a seminal event in 2008 for the bond implosion. A certain signpost was flashing in 2012 with the installation of Quantitative Easing, better described as hyper-monetary inflation of the unsterilized type. When the REPO market exploded on the scene in September 2019, the death of the USDollar’s foundation was evident to all with vision. When the sequence of CARES stimulus bills was enacted, the assurance for Infinite QE Forever was clear. The time before total sunset on the global reserve currency was declared as near. The Global Financial RESET is officially in progress. A new age is soon to dawn. The role of the USDollar is unclear in future months, probably for black market activity and possibly a transition currency.

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Commodities

Saturday, August 01, 2020

Is Gold Price Action Warning Of Imminent Monetary Collapse - Part 2? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

The following is an update of a previous article: During the 2008 financial crisis the Fed significantly increased the US monetary base to keep the system from collapse. They are currently in a similar situation, and have done (is doing) the exact same thing.

Here is a chart of the US monetary base to illustrate the similarity:

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Commodities

Friday, July 31, 2020

Gold Price Blows Through Upside Resistance - The Chase Is On / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Avi_Gilburt

Last week, I put out an article outlining my expectation for a pullback in GLD before we head to the 200+ region. Within the comments section, I outlined my plan as to how I am going to play for a potential pullback. However, that pullback has not yet materialized.

For those that have followed me closely for years, you know that I have been heavily long physical metals and mining stocks since I started accumulating them again in 2015, after calling the top in 2011.

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Commodities

Friday, July 31, 2020

Is Crude Oil Price Setting Up for a Waterfall Decline? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: The_Energy_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund charts oil and discusses what he sees ahead for the commodity.

Compared to the wild volatility that we witnessed back in the spring, trading in oil has become very light and subdued, with volatility in it dropping to a very low level, and as a result many traders are losing interest in it. It is quiet—too quiet—and complacency towards it is now rife, but as we will see, there are signs that this may all be about to change, and fast.

We'll start by looking at the year-to-date arithmetic chart for Light Crude on which we can see all of the dramatic developments this year. After deteriorating early in the year, the oil price accelerated to the downside, plunging early in March with a big gap down and then it continued to weaken into mid-April when a sudden huge drop left some contracts not just worthless, but actually having negative worth, meaning that if you took delivery you had to in effect pay someone to take it away, for an amount that exceeded what the oil was actually worth. Clearly, this was a situation that was untenable because so much depends on the oil price, so the Fed and the Military–Industrial complex worked all the levers at their disposal to get the price back up again, which of course included creating trillions of new dollars to throw at the problem, and to throw at the markets generally, especially the "window dressing" FAANG stocks. Up to now this has worked and we have seen a recovery rally of astounding proportions in the stock markets, especially the tech sector, and a respectable recovery in the oil price, and what makes all this even more astounding is that it has happened as the real world economy has been frozen by widespread lockdowns, the main purpose of which is to kill the velocity of money so that the Fed can print trillions and buy up everything without it feeding through immediately into hyperinflation—that will come later.

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