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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Thursday, June 09, 2011

U.S. Economy Brakes Even Before Fed Takes Its Foot Off the Accelerator / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn our April 28 update, we emphasized that our forecast was in “transition” from stronger to weaker in large part depending on the behavior of bank credit. This month we have made the transition to a significantly weaker outlook, not only because of the current behavior of bank credit, but also because of the current behavior of the overall economy. With regard to the latter, even before the Federal Reserve has terminated its second round of quantitative easing – that is, even before the Fed has taken its foot off the monetary accelerator – the underlying pace of U.S. economic activity already appears to be coming in weaker than we had anticipated. Consistent with our downwardly-revised real GDP growth outlook, we have revised up our forecast for the unemployment rate. In addition, we have revised down our forecast for the yield levels of the Treasury 2- and 10-year securities. (See tables at the end of this commentary containing our current and April 28 forecasts.) If we are close to the mark on our second-half GDP and unemployment rate forecasts, we could envision another round of Fed quantitative easing commencing early in 2012 with no Fed policy interest rate hikes occurring until early 2013.

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Economics

Thursday, June 09, 2011

QE2 Unmitigated Failure – The Bernanke Chronicles / Economics / Quantitative Easing

By: James_Quinn

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOur self proclaimed "expert" on the Great Depression, Ben Bernanke, seems to be feeling the pressure. His theories worked so well when he modeled them in his posh corner office at Princeton. He could saunter down the hallway and get his buddy Krugman to confirm his belief that the Federal Reserve was just too darn restrictive between 1929 and 1932, resulting in the first Great Depression. I wonder if there will be a future Federal Reserve Chairman, 80 years from now, studying how the worst Federal Reserve Chairman in history (not an easy feat) created the Greatest Depression that finally put an end to the Great American Military Empire. Bernanke spent half of his speech earlier this week trying to convince himself and the rest of the world that his extremist monetary policy of keeping interest rates at 0% for the last two years, printing money at an astounding rate, and purposely trying to devalue the US currency, had absolutely nothing to do with the surge in oil and food prices in the last year. Based on his scribbling since November of last year, it seems that Ben is trying to win his own Nobel Prize - for fiction.

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Economics

Thursday, June 09, 2011

Greece Economic Reforms at a Standstill, Deficit is Widening, Bailout Payments on Hold / Economics / Global Debt Crisis

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOn May 28 Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou went into a temper tantrum over an article in Der Spiegel that stated Greece missed its financial targets.

Papaconstantinou noted the report was not even out yet adding, "I have every reason to believe they will end positively for our country and that we will receive the fifth tranche."

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Economics

Thursday, June 09, 2011

U.S. May Employment Numbers Show Faults in Recovery / Economics / Employment

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

May’s employment report couldn’t come at a better time.  As soon as the Fed officially ends its quantitative easing program, new jobs data shows that the recovery investors have long been waiting for is still out of reach.

At the most topical level, the employment report was dismal – ignoring the obvious manipulation of the figures with birth and death estimates, seasonal but unreliable adjustments, and revisions to the downside that have become frequent with old employment data, there is still a gem to be found tucked deep inside the numbers.

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Economics

Thursday, June 09, 2011

Different Measures of Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleConcern about imminent inflation is at the heart of criticism of the Fed's quantitative easing programs. Charts 1 and 2 depict recent trends of much tracked price gauges and the main take away from these charts is that inflation excluding food and energy are contained and higher energy prices have translated into only a less than proportionate increase in core prices.

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Economics

Wednesday, June 08, 2011

Destruction of US Manufacturing, Confessions of an Economic Terrorist / Economics / US Economy

By: Andrew_Butter

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJust in case anyone has an idea to dispatch seventy-two SEALS by helicopter to deliver me a tap-tap, like they did to that other guy, save your money, I’m a minnow.

If you want to know the real “culprits”, have a look at this chart:

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Economics

Wednesday, June 08, 2011

Deflationary Depression in America: The Double Dip Economic Recession / Economics / Deflation

By: Bob_Chapman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWall Street seems to believe the waning recovery in the economy is only temporary and that further recovery is on the way. Such thinking can get you in serious trouble, unless QE3, or its equivalent, is on the way. It is on the way, as we pointed out 13 months ago. The economy cannot live and survive without it otherwise we could be looking at a minus 5% GDP for openers. Incidentally, there are those that believe that unemployment already is as bad as it was during the “Great Depression” years of thep930s. They may be correct, but we believe it was much higher than today’s 22.4% level. If government hadn’t created food stamps, Medicaid, extended unemployment benefits and other benefits, perhaps we could be close to 1930’s levels.

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Economics

Wednesday, June 08, 2011

Fed Won't Admit to the Coming Double Dip Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Hutchinson writes: Despite what U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in his speech at the International Monetary Conference yesterday (Tuesday), it looks very much like we're headed for a double-dip recession.

Indeed, the economic reports of the last week or so demonstrate that the U.S. job machine was never really jump-started after the Great Recession of 2008-09.

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Economics

Wednesday, June 08, 2011

The Consumption Bust / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Fred_Sheehan

There is no end to the indicators showing the consumer is up against it. Negative home-equity, incomes, layoffs, food inflation - oh, this is tale of woe. And so, the plaintive cry: "Is this the bottom?" That seems doubtful, actually impossible, given the math.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 07, 2011

Our Economic Future, Best to Worst Case / Economics / Global Economy

By: Casey_Research

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDoug Casey, Casey Research writes: There is a great deal of uncertainty among investors about what the future of the U.S. economy may look like – so I decided to take a stab at what’s likely to happen over the next 20 years. That's enough time for a child to grow up and mature, and it's long enough for major trends to develop and make themselves felt.

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Economics

Sunday, June 05, 2011

Policymakers Have Made Another Economic Depression Unavoidable / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEquities markets have been battered all week by bad economic data sending investors piling into "risk free" Treasuries. The Dow Jones slipped 276 points on Wednesday followed by a 41 point loss on Thursday. The benchmark 10-year Treasury has ducked below 3 percent repeatedly signally a slowdown that could lead to another recession.

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Economics

Sunday, June 05, 2011

Towards a Worldwide Inflationary Depression, Collapse of the Anglo-American Empire / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Bob_Chapman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAccording to our calculations we have been in an inflationary depression since February of 2009. Everyone looks back on the deflationary depression of the 1930s as a benchmark or a reference. As far as we are concerned the 1930’s depression only ended when the powers behind government arranged another war. Few talk about the recession of the early 1920s, which only lasted two years and was caused by the newly formed Fed, which financed US participation in World War I. They raised interest rates, which enticed citizens to save, which provided money for loans for research and expansion. The Fed, other than raising rates, stayed neutral, as did the Treasury. The result was the recession ended quickly. A bad story with a happy ending, which contributed to the roaring 20s, which the Fed eventually turned into a depression via their interference.

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Economics

Saturday, June 04, 2011

Economic Whiplash, Eurozone Debt Crisis Intolerable Choices, U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Worse Than Headlines / Economics / Global Debt Crisis

By: John_Mauldin

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDo you feel as if you are suffering from some sort of economic whiplash? Between focusing on the European crisis (and it is a crisis), then looking at softening data in the US and political turmoil in Japan, not to mention the Middle East, you can be forgiven for feeling like someone just slammed into the back of your "economic recovery car." This week we look at today's US employment numbers, then at a troubling slowing of economic velocity, precisely at a time when it should be rising, and then consider a powerhouse, must-be-read-twice commentary from Martin Wolf on the European situation. Then I will weigh in with some of my own thoughts. Counterintuitively, the holders of certain European debt are being put at further risk by the bailout. (This letter may be a little shorter and take more work than others -which some of you think will improve it - as I am suffering from Caesar's Revenge here in Tuscany, although I am getting better!)

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Economics

Saturday, June 04, 2011

Railway Revolution Builds China’s Consumer Culture / Economics / China Economy

By: Frank_Holmes

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFrequent readers of my “Frank Talk” blog and the weekly Investor Alert should be familiar with the story of China’s high speed rails. We’ve previously discussed how China is building the world’s largest network of high speed rails at an incredible speed.

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Economics

Saturday, June 04, 2011

U.S. Employment Situation Deteriorates as Hiring Slows and Unemployment Rate Rises to 9.1% / Economics / Employment

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCivilian Unemployment Rate:  9.1% in May vs. 9.0% in April. Cycle high for recession is 10.1% in October 2009. 

Payroll Employment: +54,000 in May vs. +232,000 in April. Private sector jobs increased 83,000 after a gain of 251,000 in April.

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Economics

Friday, June 03, 2011

Fed Economic Stimulus Leads to Stagflation / Economics / Stagflation

By: John_Browne

Despite the full onslaught of Keynesian economic policies, including the injection of unheard of sums of printed money into the financial system, state sanctioned accounting tricks, negative real interest rates, massive deficit spending, and debasement of the U.S. dollar, the American economy is slipping back fast towards recession. This week's release of dismal employment figures, in which the entire economy could only muster 54,000 new jobs, confirms that fact.

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Economics

Friday, June 03, 2011

U.S. Unemployment Now at Great Depression Levels, Jobs Destruction is Permanent / Economics / Unemployment

By: Washingtons_Blog

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUnemployment During the Great Depression Has Been Overstated and Current Unemployment Understated (We've Now Got Depression-Level Unemployment)

The commonly-accepted unemployment figures for the Great Depression are overstated.

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Economics

Friday, June 03, 2011

U.S. Labor Market Elevated Level of Initial Jobless Claims is Worrisome / Economics / Unemployment

By: Asha_Bangalore

Initial jobless claims fell 6,000 to 422,000 during the week ended May 28.  The underlying trend of initial jobless claims in the last two months has changed.  The number of initial jobless claims has risen to 426,000 during May from 423,000 in April after an extended period of a decelerating trend (see Chart 2).  These numbers suggest that labor market conditions remain worrisome.  The reversal of initial jobless claims is consistent with the slowing trend visible in other recent economic reports. 

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Economics

Friday, June 03, 2011

Inflation Expectations Reflect Slowing U.S. Economic Conditions / Economics / Inflation

By: Asha_Bangalore

Latest economic data (ISM manufacturing survey results for May, auto sales of May, factory production of April, consumer spending of April) underscore the shift in business momentum to a slower pace during the past two months.  Consistent with this change, inflation expectations have declined. 

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Economics

Thursday, June 02, 2011

Africa Riding the Red Dragon / Economics / Africa

By: Richard_Mills

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"When I entered the business world, three-fourths of the world was closed - China, Russia, Vietnam, India, most of Africa... In 2010, the entire world is wide open, the developing world is growing twice as fast as the developed world and there's still arguably several billion people out there that will modernize and progress." - Caterpillar's CEO Doug Oberhelman

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