Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Sunday, February 22, 2009
Deflation - What You Should and Should Not Do / Economics / Deflation
Whilst recent headlines have been grabbed by Barack Obama's $800 billion Economic Stimulus package which is part of a global collective total of approximate $2 trillion of stimulus spending that has been committed for during the next 1 to 2 years. However the fact of the matter is that this does not even come close to countering the REAL Deflationary impact of the $30 trillion across the board loss of value of assets from real estate to stocks to commodities.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 22, 2009
World Economies Face Perfect Storm of Deepening Recession and Banking Crisis / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
A perfect storm of a deepening global recession and banking woes last week battered equities and supported the safe havens of the US dollar, government bonds and gold bullion.
A dismal corporate earnings outlook, fears about bank nationalizations, especially Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C), and a warning by Moody's Investors Service of possible downgrades of European banks exposed to the slumping economies of Central and Eastern Europe, stoked investors' fears.
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Saturday, February 21, 2009
UK Unemployment Time Bomb to Explode July 2009 / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
Official UK unemployment data for November 08 stands at 1.97million, with unemployment as of the end of January estimated at 2.1 million as a consequences of the rise in claimant count for December 08 and January 09 of 226,000. However whilst the pace of unemployment increases is bad as it is, which is approaching 100,000 a month, unfortunately there also exists the unemployment time bomb of the estimated 600,000 graduates that are expected to join the labour market in July 2009, which could result in a surge of unemployment of as many as 250,000 in a single, with also extra high unemployed numbers for subsequent months.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 21, 2009
ECB Dithers as Eastern Europe Bad Debts to Bankrupt European Banks / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009
- The Risk in Europe
- While Rome Burns
- The Euro Back to Parity? Really?
- Back to the Basics
- Living in Paradise
- The 20-Year Horizon
- If I Had a Hammer
When I sit down each week to write, I essentially do what I did nine years ago when I started writing this letter. I write to you, as an individual. I don't think of a large group of people, just a simple letter to a friend. It is only half a joke that this letter is written to my one million closest friends. That is the way I think of it.
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Friday, February 20, 2009
U.S. CPI Reverts from Deflation Back to Inflation Mode / Economics / Inflation
For the better part of the second half of 2008, the decision was an easy one. For the first 30 or so days of 2009, the decision remained easy. Then something changed. Something subtle, but at the same time worthy of our utmost attention. Producer and consumer prices began to climb off the mat and beginning in January 2009, there has been a rather remarkable turnaround. Granted, one month does not a trend make, but in this environment, big moves, which have become commonplace bear even more study when they reverse themselves on a dime.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 20, 2009
UK Public Sector Contraction to Trigger Double Dip Recession / Economics / UK Economy
My recent indepth analysis and forecast of the UK economy for the period 2009 to 2010 concluded that the UK is heading for GDP contraction of 6.3%, and will start to bounce from a 4th quarter 2009 low of -4.75% GDP into the end of 2010. This recovery is expected to be followed by further weakness due to the scale of government borrowing generated in advance of the 2010 general election. On further analysis of the prospects post 2010 suggesting that 2011 and 2012 economic weakness may be as a consequence of a Public Sector Recession.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 20, 2009
U.S. Government Borrowing Trillions of Dollars to Artificially Inflate Deflating Bubble Economy / Economics / US Debt
Predatory Legislators - With millions of homeowners now struggling to repay money they clearly never should have borrowed, our leaders have been righteously wagging fingers at predatory lenders who allegedly enticed innocent borrowers, and the country, into a financial snake pit. While the mortgage industry clearly deserves a good share of the blame, unindicted co-conspirators abound. The ringleaders are still at-large and are, in fact, busy hatching a plan to dwarf the earlier mistakes.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 20, 2009
Bankrupt Eastern European Banks Require Mega Bailouts to Survive / Economics / Credit Crisis Bailouts
Martin Hutchinson writes: We all know about the mess the United States, Britain, Spain and some other countries have gotten themselves into thanks to overenthusiastic housing bubbles.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 19, 2009
"The Last Bastion Against Deflation: The Federal Government / Economics / Deflation
This article is part of a syndicated series about deflation from market analyst Robert Prechter, the world's foremost expert on and proponent of the deflationary scenario. For more on deflation and how you can survive it, download Prechter's FREE 60-page Deflation Survival eBook , part of Prechter's NEW Deflation Survival Guide.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 19, 2009
The Perfect Storm: Financial Crisis of Epic Proportions / Economics / Financial Crash
The Perfect Storm: Financial Crisis of Epic Proportions
THE BURNING PLATFORM - "The US government is on a “burning platform” of unsustainable policies and practices with fiscal deficits, chronic healthcare underfunding, immigration and overseas military commitments threatening a crisis if action is not taken soon." David M. Walker
David Walker served as Comptroller General of the United States from 1998 through 2008. He is now the CEO of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation and leader of the Fiscal Wake Up Tour. He has been a lone voice in the wilderness for the last decade regarding our looming fiscal disaster.
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Thursday, February 19, 2009
Russia's Post U.S. New World Order Blueprint / Economics / New World Order
PROLOGUE & AFTERMATH - The World Economic Forum took place in Davos Switzerland last week. The global picture enabled a nice snapshot of sentiment, fault for the crisis, blame doled out, the vacuum of leadership, the perks for blunderers in a country club setting (instead of prison), and warnings on a potential situation that could spiral out of control. Amidst all the finger pointing, surprisingly little blame was given to themselves, the corporate chieftains in attendance. Let's be clear! The Davos Forum was a funeral wake, and Putin rode in on a white horse to announce there is a new sheriff in town!!Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Fiat World Money Printing Mathematical Model / Economics / Fiat Currency
In a fiat world, money is printed into existence by the central bank - in the United States the Fed. Given there is nothing backing up this money, it is inherently worthless. However, one can think of as real. It was printed (even if only electronically), therefore it exists.In addition to the previously mentioned money supply, fractional reserve lending allows credit to be extended by banks and financial institutions on top of that inherently worthless money. Indeed, banks and financial institutions have leveraged credit to base money at ratios of 30-1, 50-1 or even higher.
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Thursday, February 19, 2009
The Great Depression II Survival Strategies / Economics / Economic Depression
Dr. Raju M. Mathew wrotes: This is the Great Depression II - The crisis that we are now facing can rightly be called The Great Depression II of 2009 . And it is several times severe than the Great Depression I of 1929. It is not mere a financial meltdown; not mere a credit crisis. It is not a recession to disappear within two years. The dimensions and intensities of the Great Depression II are quite different from the early one. Who had brought out the present crisis and where had gone all the money or credits that were available before a few months back, are the two questions that the general public is asking?Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Jaguar Inflation - A Layman's Explanation of Government Intervention / Economics / Deflation
This article is part of a syndicated series about deflation from market analyst Robert Prechter, the world's foremost expert on and proponent of the deflationary scenario. For more on deflation and how you can survive it, download Prechter's FREE 60-page Deflation Survival eBook , part of Prechter's NEW Deflation Survival Guide.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Will Keynesian Tax Cuts Deepen The Recession? / Economics / Economic Theory
In one of the more ridiculous Keynesian theories to date, Gauti B. Eggertsson at the New York Fed comes to the conclusion Tax Cuts Will Deepen The Recession . Simple logic would dictate that letting people and businesses keep more of their money would be a good thing but amazingly Eggertsson comes to the opposite conclusion.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 19, 2009
The Great Depression has Arrived- Collapsing American Dreams / Economics / Great Depression II
It almost seems amusing that we are still discussing the “coming” depression because of the fact that it is already arrived and settling in. Really, what this entire new “era” is all about is watching our dreams deteriorate right before our eyes.
Want to hear what the real world is like today? Country star John Rich dramatizes this well in his new song, “They're Shutting Detroit Down.”
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Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Next Wave of Banking Crisis to Come from Eastern Europe / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009
European banks face an entirely new wave of losses in coming months not yet calculated in any government bank rescue aid to date. Unlike the losses of US banks which derive initially from their exposures to low-quality sub-prime real estate and other securitized lending, the problems of western European banks, most especially in Austria, Sweden and perhaps Switzerland arise from the massive volumes of loans they made during the 2002-2007 period of extreme low international interest rates to clients in eastern European countries.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Gold Climbs as Global Economic Catastrophe Looms / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009
Last week, when Congress passed its $787 billion stimulus package, the size of the plan caused many observers to forget the water that has already passed under the bridge. Fewer still are wondering what havoc will erupt when all this liquidity eventually washes ashore.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Inflation, Deflation and Gold / Economics / Gold & Silver 2009
"Inflation and deflation are both a crisis in money. Which leaves gold as a secure store of wealth against both monetary panics..."
THE 1970s DIDN'T JUST curse the world with cheap German wine and the Bay City Rollers.
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Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Understanding the Difference Between Deflation and Hyperinflation: Deflationists Rebuttal / Economics / Deflation
1) The euro is going to crash against the dollar because European bank losses dwarf those in the USThis bit of logic proves that deflationists (those predicting deflation in the US) don't understand deflation. Whether or not European bank losses dwarf those in the US, it is the euro that will rally against the dollar. Why? Because the euro zone, unlike the US, is about to experience real, honest-to-god deflation. Ironically, Deflation is staring deflationists in the face, and they are too blind to see it.
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