Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, December 02, 2016
We Are Putting Off the Inevitable / Economics / Recession 2017
By: John_Mauldin
Only two presidents in history did not see a recession, and they were inaugurated after single-term presidents. In every single instance at the end of a two-term presidency, there’s been a recession. This means there is a 100% chance of recession for the new president.
My friend Raoul Pal, in his latest Global Macro Investor, talks about the potential for a recession in 2017:
The following chart shows every recession since 1910 (in yellow) with the new president after a two-term election marked in white and the new presidents after a single-term presidency in red. Wilson and Eisenhower appear as both. Only Coolidge saw more than a year (sixteen months) from his second-term election and the onset of the subsequent recession at the end of WWI…
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 02, 2016
Macroeconomic Cycles & Demographics - A Fuse, An Explosive and The Igniting Catalyst / Economics / Demographics
By: Gordon_T_Long
Investors need to focus on the two key long term structural changes now underway which are going to ignite destructive global dislocations through early 2020. To better understand why this is going to occur we need to place them in context by first examining the major economic cycles currently underway.
Harry Dent's Macroeconomic Cycles & Demographics
This initial cycle chart is from an in-depth discussion I had with Harry Dent earlier this year. Since leaving Harvard, Harry has spent most of his adult working life studying demographics and cycles.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 01, 2016
Burn the Flags, Can Trump Salvage The Sinking US Economic Ship? / Economics / US Economy
By: Jeff_Berwick
When Nobel Peace Prize winner, Barack O’Bomber, was sworn into office on January 20, 2009, the national debt was $10.62 trillion.
The United States currently has a national debt total of over $19.9 Trillion according to the US national debt clock as of the writing of this blog. That’s an astonishing 87% increase in less than an 8 year period.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 01, 2016
US Economic Data - These Were Supposed To Be Hillary’s Numbers! / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Rubino
Good headlines just keep coming. The Chicago PMI index of Midwest economic activity jumps to its highest level in two years. The ADP employment report shows 216,000 new jobs added in November. US Q2 GDP growth is upgraded to a completely acceptable rate of 3.2%.
Very nice numbers all. And – had the election gone a different way – a big help in easing the transition from one Democrat administration to another. Success breeding success.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 30, 2016
Economic Imperialism Could Lead to China’s Demise / Economics / China Economy
By: Rodney_Johnson
In 2007, a Chinese company bought Mount Toromocho in Peru. That’s right. A mountain, in another country.It’s more than half the height of Mount Everest, but aesthetic beauty wasn’t a factor. Beneath the mountain’s surface sits two billion tons of copper, one of the largest reserves in the world. Through a state-owned company, the Chinese government secured access to yet another natural resource overseas.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 28, 2016
If Trump Does This, We Will Win / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
No matter who won the presidency, the economic way forward was not going to be easy. The national debt and deficit must be brought under control, or we will face a crisis.
Avoiding that crisis—even if it is 10 years out—is important. The solution doesn’t have to be implemented all at once. But there has to be a clear trajectory along the lines of the Clinton/Gingrich budget compromises. Those gave us balanced budgets and deficit reduction.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 28, 2016
Public Infrastructure – Welcome to the World of Waste, Fraud, and Abuse / Economics / Infrastructure
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Economic policy is subject to fads and fashions. The most recent economic-policy fad is public infrastructure. Its advocates include progressives on the “left” – like President Obama, Hillary Clinton, and Bernie Sanders – and populists on the “right” – like President-elect Trump. They tell us to take the chains off fiscal austerity and spend – spend a lot – on public works. They allege that this elixir will cure many, if not all, of our economic ills. Let’s take a look at their arguments and evidence.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 24, 2016
Another US Election Year, Another Bunch Of Fake Economic Growth Numbers / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: John_Rubino
Some pretty good economic reports have energized various parts of the financial markets lately. Consumer spending is up, GDP is exceeding expectations and even factory orders, that perennial downer, popped this morning.
In response the dollar is soaring and interest rates are at breaking out of their multi-decade down-channel. The economy is clearly recovering, implying a return to normality. Right?
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 23, 2016
The Winners and Losers of a Global Trade War / Economics / Global Economy
By: Harry_Dent
My research in recent months has focused increasingly on how the surprise Brexit vote and Trump’s victory are actually not that surprising after all. They’re a clear sign of a growing number of everyday people rejecting the massive globalization trend that has surged since World War II.The world “shrinking” seemed to be a win-win at first. Countries could focus on what they do best and export to others while importing what they need. And, yes, longer-term that does work, as Adam Smith first espoused in 1776.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 23, 2016
The Trump Administration Winter is Coming / Economics / Recession 2017
By: John_Mauldin
How on God’s green earth are we supposed to make sense, from an economic and investment portfolio view, of what is happening?
A recession could change everything
It has been quite a while since we have had a recession. When we do have one, it’s going to further limit our choices.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 23, 2016
How China And Trump Era Will Define Free Trade In Asia Pacific / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
After the Trump triumph, US-led free trade plans are shelved, which leaves China an opportunity to redefine trade in Asia Pacific.
During his campaign, President-elect Donald Trump embraced a protectionist stance on trade issues and called the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) a “disaster.” More recently, he has pledged that the US will quit the TPP on his first day in the White House.
Wednesday, November 23, 2016
Krugman's Aliens Have Arrived - They Are Called "Trumponomists" / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Gordon_T_Long
Gordon T Long, Co-Founder of MATASII.com sat down with John Rubino to get his views on what the new Trump Administration and its "Trumponomics" policies will mean to the markets and investment strategies in 2017. Here are a few of John's current views on some of the Key Economic headwinds facing "Trumponomics":
A NEW ELECTORAL CLASS
The reason anti-establish politicians like Trump are gaining popularity according to John is because people, more and more, are feeling "the big systems no longer works for the people anymore!"
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 22, 2016
Did The 'Trump Tantrum' Just Trigger The Next US Recession? / Economics / Recession 2017
By: Gordon_T_Long
Trump May Have "Pricked" The Global Bond Bubble
Trump called during the campaign for a $1 trillion infrastructure package, $5 trillion in tax cuts, increases in military spending and the repeal ObamaCare, which could cost more than $350 billion over 10 years. At the same time, the president-elect has promised “not to touch” Social Security or make cuts to Medicare. The moment Trump was elected the markets immediately reacted to this potential massive fiscal injection. Bond values plummeted as yields spiked.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 21, 2016
Trump Can Fix US Economy by Embracing Biotech / Economics / BioTech
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK COX : The presidential campaign made one fact very clear. Most of the media and public aren't focused on economic growth.
Growth powers and funds everything else. Just take a look at the enormous federal deficit and you’ll see that economic health keeps taking a back seat to short-term goals.
Yes, John Maynard Keynes made a case for using debt to stimulate the economy. But he never said anything about permanent deficits. And that is our current practice. The result is that taxpayers’ options will be curtailed in the future.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 21, 2016
Obstacles to Trump’s Economic Growth Plans / Economics / US Economy
By: Raul_I_Meijer
For the second time in a few weeks (see ‘End of Growth’ Sparks Wide Discontent), former British diplomat Alastair Crooke quotes me extensively, and I return the favor. Crooke here attempts to list -some of- the difficulties Donald Trump will face in executing the -economic- measures he promised to take in his campaign. Crooke argues that, as I’ve indicated repeatedly, for instance in America is The Poisoned Chalice, the financial crisis that never ended may be one of his biggest problems.
Here, again, is Alastair Crooke:
We are plainly at a pivotal moment. President-Elect Trump wants to make dramatic changes in his nation’s course. His battle cry of wanting to make “America Great Again” evokes – and almost certainly is intended to evoke – the epic American economic expansions of the Nineteenth and Twentieth centuries.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 20, 2016
The Real Barrier To Trump's Economic Policies! / Economics / US Economy
By: Gordon_T_Long
Gordon T Long, Co-Founder of MATASII.com sat down with Mish Shedlock to get his views on what the new Trump Administration and its "Trumponomics" policies will mean to the markets and investment strategies in 2017.
Here are a few of Mish's current views on some of the Key Economic Platforms of "Trumponomics":
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 16, 2016
How Obamacare Could Have Saved the Economy / Economics / Healthcare Sector
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON : Some people say Obamacare was designed to fail, a clever attempt to pull us toward socialized healthcare.
I don’t know if that’s true. But it’s a fact that Obamacare is failing.
The so-called reform never worked very well because it didn’t reduce the underlying cost pressures. Now it’s falling apart.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 16, 2016
What Exactly is True Capitalism? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Frank_Holmes
We’ll begin with this truth: We cannot snap our fingers and have “wants” immediately transformed into “satisfactions.” We are born having to struggle to survive. We must take atomic elements, which are provided gratuitously by nature, and transform them into the goods and services that give us satisfaction. Everything used to build an Italian sports car is provided by nature, but not in a form that can be used directly without modifications. The raw material must be combined by our labor and know-how. Wants require efforts to obtain satisfaction. Man is constantly striving to reduce these painful efforts that consume so much of his energy and time. Unfortunately, the history of mankind has been one of pillage: A plan for less efforts. It is far easier to steal a sack of corn than take the effort to grow it.
Wednesday, November 16, 2016
U.S. Economy at Major Long-Term Pivotal Point / Economics / US Economy
By: Clif_Droke
As the dust settles from the U.S. presidential election, multitudes of political analysts and news commentators continue to scratch their heads wondering “what went wrong?” The collective question they're asking of course is in reference to the candidate who was elected President.
This is the wrong question to ask, however. What they should be asking is what led millions of (mostly) middle class voters to rise up against the favored establishment candidate and voice their disapproval with the incumbent party. As is normally the case with anything relating to politics, the answer is to be found in the realm of economics.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 09, 2016
Bill Gross: Trump Election Victory Won't Lead to More Economic Growth / Economics / US Economy
By: Bloomberg
Bill Gross of Janus Capital was interviewed by Erik Schatzker on Bloomberg Markets this morning.
Gross discussed market reaction to the U.S. presidential election, telling Schatzker that Trump's victory won't lead to more economic growth.
SCHATZKER: "Well, let's consider those things for a moment. Let's consider demographics. Let's consider some of the structural obstacles. Can you envision a scenario, all of those things considered, in which the economy grows four percent a year, and in which we add 25 million jobs over who knows what period?"
Read full article... Read full article...