Analysis Topic: Housing Market Price trends
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, May 18, 2021
Why the Demand for US Real Estate Licenses May Soon Fall into a Sinkhole / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: EWI
By this measure, the housing boom may be nearing an end
A lot of people who've lost jobs have turned to getting their real estate licenses as a path to prosperity.
Part of the mindset that selling houses is worth a try is the belief that prices go up most of the time.
As the Wall Street Journal noted on March 21:
[S]urging prices are persuading tens of thousands more Americans to try their hands at selling real estate.
There have been many other periods of time when home prices have trended higher. However, that's not always the case. As you know, home prices sank significantly following the subprime mortgage meltdown of nearly a decade-and-a-half ago.
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Friday, April 30, 2021
Want To Invest In US Real Estate Market But Don’t Have The Down Payment? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As an asset class, real estate should be a part of every balanced investment portfolio. That’s because real estate investments generally have a low correlation to stocks, can offer lower risk, and provide greater diversification.
Today about 65% of Americans own a home, but that means that tens of millions of Americans have no exposure to real estate. Making matters worse, becoming a homeowner today is harder than in previous generations, with 1 in 5 millennials believing they will never be able to afford a home. Is there a way to get exposure to the real estate market for as little as $100?
Residential real estate market trend
From the chart below, we can see that the residential real estate market continues to climb and the median price of houses sold in the US is near recent all-time highs of $347,500. Even though mortgage rates remain near all-time lows, the appreciation of prices in certain pockets of the country are making many cities and areas simply unaffordable for most. Things look much the same for industrial, commercial, agricultural, and most other specialized real estate subsectors.
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Thursday, April 22, 2021
Here's What to Look For When Hiring a Real Estate Agent / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Steve_Barker
The most daunting experience for an individual or family shopping for a new house or wanting to sell their property is hiring a real estate agent or firm that can represent their interest throughout the entire process.
Buying a home is a huge milestone in a person’s life, but when you lack knowledge about the real estate market, it could become a sour experience. And it is the same thing when you want to sell your home, you need realtors to help you navigate the process while holding your hand all the way.
Most people shopping for properties in the real estate market are first-time homeowners, to ensure that your lack of experience is not exploited, get the right property that suits you for the right price, it is important that you engage the services of a real estate agent.
It gets tricky here because you cannot just decide to hire a realtor on a whim; they need to tick certain ethical, professional, and psycho-analytical boxes before you make the final decision.
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Wednesday, April 21, 2021
Looking For A Mortgage Broker? Here's How To Hire One / Housing-Market / Mortgages
By: Steve_Barker
Are you looking to buy a house or to get an investment loan, or you need help sifting through mortgage options? Then you will need a mortgage broker. It is possible to do all this on your own, but it will be tasking. A mortgage broker is a professional that acts as an intermediary between you and the lenders. They don't just connect you to any lender. They use your financial situation to get the best fit lender at an interest rate you can afford.
Mortgage brokerage is a rising business. In 2004, there was 53,000 mortgage brokerage in the United States. With online mortgage brokers, an increase in the mortgage industry has occurred. These rising numbers make it difficult to hire mortgage brokers easily. You are not just looking for any mortgage broker. You are looking for a good one that makes you his/her priority and helps you navigate the complex mortgage market.
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Friday, April 16, 2021
What Skyrocketing US Home Prices Say About Inflation / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: MoneyMetals
Anyone who says inflation isn’t a problem hasn’t tried shopping for a new home recently.
Housing costs are skyrocketing. The median sales price of existing homes has spiked 16% over the past 12 months (from $270,400 to $313,000) – the fastest pace in 15 years.
The real estate market is being pressured not only by a low inventories of houses listed for sale, but also by rising prices for construction materials.
Home builders must deal with a massive 200% increase in lumber costs since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the National Association of Home Builders, lumber’s elevated price adds about $24,000 to the final quote on a typical new single-family home.
Tuesday, March 23, 2021
US Housing Market House Prices Trend Forecast 2021, 2022 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Formulating a US House Prices Forecast
Pandemics end, momentum, economic, trend and real terms prices analysis ALL point towards a US house prices boom of sorts for 2021. Targeting a bull run into the end of 2021 of about +10% on the most recent Case Shiller 10 city Index (SPCS10RNSA ) rising from 248.5 (Oct 2020 data) to about 273 for Dec 2021 data.
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Monday, March 22, 2021
US House Prices Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator Trend Forecast / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
What does my primary indicator on the health of the US housing market say that has proven accurate for literally decades! Catching every major bull and bear market of the past 30 years! From it's first SELL signal in 1990 to it's last BUY in 2012. What do real terms US prices say for the prospects for 2021?
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Thursday, March 11, 2021
Debt and Yield Curve and US House Prices Trend 2021 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
One of the reasons why my analysis of April 2019 was more subdued in terms of the prospects for US house prices than it would otherwise have been is because the yield curve was flirting with inversion, that I concluded that the Fed would not allow to take place and thus adopt whatever measures were necessary to PREVENT inversion that tends to foreshadow lower inflation and recessions.
Tuesday, March 02, 2021
US Housing Market Trend Forecast 2021 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Given the US governments continuing catastrophic response to the coronavirus virus resulting in severe economic contraction then one would assume that the crowing from the rooftops perma bear deflationistas would finally be proven right with their decade long perma bear messages of a US housing market crash finally being fulfilled. So is that what happened? Were the perma bears finally proven right by chance, a black swan event courtesy of a leak from a wuhan bio lab?
We'll in economic terms the US as is the case for all western nations has come under severe economic pressures following the panic lockdown responses to an out of control pandemic with further economic pain expected during Q1 2021 in a race against time to deliver vaccines into american arms.
The recovery in US employment has started to flat line as the US heads into new lockdown's as the pandemic Wave 4 starts to materialise, thus expect US unemployment to increase though to nowhere near the extent of the first wave.
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Tuesday, March 02, 2021
Covid-19 Vaccinations US House Prices Trend Indicator 2021 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In my opinion one of the primary indicators for economic recovery for the US and the rest of the world is the percentage of the the adult population that has been vaccinated, and especially the segment of the population at highest risk of hospitalisation and death from covid-19 i.e. the over 50's. In which respect US vaccinations currently stand at 6.2 million with approx 1 million americans being vaccinated per day (1st dose) or about 0.3% of the population. Which frankly is just not good enough. So unless things step up a gear perhaps after Biden takes office then under the current pace the US is not going to have vaccinated 50% of the population until late May and that is just with the first dose!
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Friday, February 26, 2021
US Housing Market House Prices Momentum Analysis / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Houston we have Lift OFF! If it were not clear from the house prices graph then it should be clear form the momentum graph that US house prices have taken off! Rising at their fastest pace since 2012! Likely to end 2020 up about 8% on the year. Furthermore the breakout above the 2018 peak suggests further strong house prices gains to come during 2021 i.e. this sort of powerful up thrust in trend usually does not turn on a dime.
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Thursday, February 25, 2021
Work From Home Inflationary US House Prices BOOM! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The pandemic has resulted in many tens of millions more americans working from home. As someone who has been working form home for a good 15 years I can well understand why house prices have rocketed higher as prospective home buyers both seek out properties that are better suited to working from home, more suburban, quiet office spaces, plenty of storage, or view properties with scope to being upgraded into work from home environments.
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Wednesday, February 24, 2021
US Housing Market 2021 and the Inflation Mega-trend - QE4EVER! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Whilst the US stock market had a panic attack crash into Mid March. The crash where US house prices are concerned was UPWARDS! Which should not come as much of a surprise to those who have been following my analysis for the past 10 years! Money printing, MONEY PRINTING! When you know the Fed is about to print a shit load of money whatever they call it, will mean that assets that cannot be easily printed will surge higher, this IS the INFLATION MEGA-TREND IN ACTION!
The primary mega-trend IS THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND! Those who bet against it on hopes of a repeat of the 1930's depression will keep going BROKE!
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Tuesday, February 23, 2021
US Economic Trends - GDP, Inflation and Unemployment Impact on House Prices 2021 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
GDP
The US economy is recovering fast from the corona crash with annualised GDP down just 2.8% for Q3, a remarkable performance and far better than most western nations.
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Tuesday, February 23, 2021
US House Prices Trend Forecast Review / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Did the coronavirus pandmeic deliver the perma bears their US house prices crash that they have been crowing so loudly for for over a decade now?
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Sunday, February 21, 2021
US House Prices Vaccinations Indicator / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In my opinion one of the primary indicators for economic recovery for the US and the rest of the world is the percentage of the the adult population that has been vaccinated, and especially the segment of the population at highest risk of hospitalisation and death from covid-19 i.e. the over 50's. In which respect US vaccinations currently stand at 6.2 million with approx 1 million americans being vaccinated per day (1st dose) or about 0.3% of the population. Which frankly is just not good enough. So unless things step up a gear perhaps after Biden takes office then under the current pace the US is not going to have vaccinated 50% of the population until late May and that is just with the first dose!
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Saturday, February 20, 2021
US House Prices Momentum Analysis / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Houston we have Lift OFF! If it were not clear from the house prices graph then it should be clear form the momentum graph that US house prices have taken off! Rising at their fastest pace since 2012! Likely to end 2020 up about 8% on the year. Furthermore the breakout above the 2018 peak suggests further strong house prices gains to come during 2021 i.e. this sort of powerful up thrust in trend usually does not turn on a dime.
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Saturday, February 20, 2021
The Most Important Chart in Housing Right Now / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Stephen_McBride
American homeowners just got a lot richer. According to internet realtor Zillow (ZG), US housing gained $2.5 trillion in value last year. That’s the biggest jump since 2005.
Simply put, the housing market is booming right now. The CEO of homebuilder Toll Brothers said: “We’re experiencing the strongest housing market I’ve seen in my 30 years.” Mortgage lenders handed out a record $4.4 trillion in home loans in 2020. America’s largest lender, Quicken Loans, was writing $1 billion of loans per day!
This is one of the greatest comebacks in American history. Between 2006 and 2009, the average home lost over a quarter of its value. More than eight million Americans lost their homes during the collapse.
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Thursday, February 18, 2021
Work From Home Inflationary House Prices BOOM! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The pandemic has resulted in many tens of millions more americans working from home. As someone who has been working form home for a good 15 years I can well understand why house prices have rocketed higher as prospective home buyers both seek out properties that are better suited to working from home, more suburban, quiet office spaces, plenty of storage, or view properties with scope to being upgraded into work from home environments.
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Monday, February 15, 2021
US House Prices Real Estate Trend Forecast Review / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Did the perma bears finally get their US house prices crash that they have been crowing so loudly for a decade now?
Firstly a recap of my existing US house prices trend forecast.
30th April 2019 - US House Prices Trend Forecast 2019 to 2021
Therefore my forecast conclusion is for a relatively weak continuation of the US housing bull market into late 2020 at a much shallower pace than experienced in recent years for a likely gain of just 3% over the next 2 years (Jan 2019 to Jan 2021) before entering into a downtrend going into 2021 i.e. Case Shiller 10 city Index (SPCS10RNSA ) rising from 225.9 (Jan 2019 data) to just 232.4 (Jan 2021 data) as illustrated by my trend forecast graph.
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