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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Wednesday, April 11, 2012

We Are Nearing the End Game of Central Bank Intervention / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2012

By: Graham_Summers

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBecause of a lack of foreign interest in long-term Treasuries, the Fed decided to step in to pick up the slack. As a result of this, the US Federal Reserve has accounted for 91% of all new debt issuance in the 20+years bracket. Put another way, the US Federal Reserve is now effectively the long-end of the US debt market.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

LTRO 3 likely before any U.S. QE3 / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Tony_Caldaro

In January we reported the following: http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2012/01/30/feds-monetary-base-update/. The FED’s monetary base did make a new high, in February at $2.753 tln, but appears to have ended well short of our $3.0 tln expectation. Since then the monetary base has contracted by nearly $100 bln. The recent high, in OEW terms, may have completed Primary wave III. This would suggest the base in now contracting in a Primary wave IV.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, April 08, 2012

The Worst of All Monetary Policies, The Boom That Must End in Depression / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Thorsten_Polleit

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI. Monetary Expansion Is Kept Going

In monetary analyses, the balance sheet of the commercial banking sector is typically kept separate from the balance sheet of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). However, combining the two balance sheets might be much more informative.

First, adding up the business volumes of commercial banks and the Fed provides a (much) better insight into the expansion of the monetary sector as a whole over time — especially so in times of the financial and economic "crisis."

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, April 05, 2012

Why the ECB Expanded Its Balance Sheet By Over $1 trillion in Less Than Nine Months / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Graham_Summers

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBetween July 2011 and today, the ECB has expanded its balance sheet by an incredible $1+ trillion: more than the Fed’s QE 2 and QE lite combined (and in just a nine month period).

This rapid and extreme expansion of the ECB’s balance sheet (again it was greater than QE lite and QE2 combined… in nine months) indicates the severity of the banking crisis in Europe. You don’t rush this much money out the door this fast unless you’re facing something very, very bad.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, April 05, 2012

The Student Loan Bubble is the Next Subprime Trillion Dollar Sinkhole / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2012

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Hutchinson writes: Don't look now but there's another giant bubble out there. It's so big it rivals subprime.

I'm talking about the student loan bubble. Recently, the outstanding volume of student loans passed $1 trillion. What's more bothersome is that the average individual amount owed by new college graduates has passed $25,000.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, April 04, 2012

Fed Actions Speak Louder Than Words / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Axel_Merk

Investors may be taken for a ride by today's Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which expand on the FOMC's March 13, 2012 statement; in the interim, we believe the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Bernanke has gone out of his way to assure the markets that monetary policy will remain "highly accommodative," at least through late 2014.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 03, 2012

Italian Bonds/Economic Data/Materials Raise Caution Flag / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Chris_Ciovacco

Our models remain bullish longer-term, but we have some concerns on a shorter-term time horizon. The yield on a ten-year Italian bond has crept back up over 5%, a level which was last seen just prior to recent corrections/big drops in stock prices (see purple arrows below). Economic data has started to weaken relative to expectations in a similar manner to what we saw in spring 2011 (blue arrow below).

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Interest-Rates

Monday, April 02, 2012

German Bunds Interest Rate Yield Pressing Support / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Starting a new month and a new quarter, U.S. 10 year YIELD remains rangebound, but looking like it is in a down-loop towards 2.00% again.

In our comparison chart between U.S. and German yield, notice that German 10-year yield is pressing against its key support plateau, and looks like it is about to break down, which probably is a warning either that some other negative surprise is approaching in Europe, or that the German economy is about to sputter -- or both. All of this will negatively impact U.S. growth and press Treasury yield lower, also impacting the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT).

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 29, 2012

The National Debt Clock is Ticking / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Mario_Innecco

U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner said yesterday that the U.S. won't hit the debt limit (ceiling) unitl late in the year. Zerohedge has projected that the debt limit of $16'394 billion will be hit on September 14th, 2012. Presently the National Debt is at $15'596 billion according to the debt clock.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 29, 2012

Martin Armstrong on the Sovereign Debt Crisis / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2012

By: Ron_Hera

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Hera Research Newsletter is pleased to present a fascinating interview with Martin A. Armstrong, founder and former Head of Princeton Economics, Ltd. In the 1980s, Princeton Economics became the leading multinational corporate advisor with offices in Paris, London, Tokyo, Hong Kong and Sydney and in 1983 Armstrong was named by the Wall Street Journal as the highest paid advisor in the world.

As a top currency analyst and frequent contributor to academic journals, Armstrong's views on financial markets remain in high demand. Armstrong was requested by the Presidential Task Force (Brady Commission) investigating the 1987 U.S. stock market crash and, in 1997, Armstrong was invited to advise the People's Bank of China during the Asian Currency Crisis.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 29, 2012

US Economy Hits Another Roubini Road-Hump: Is This The End? / Interest-Rates / US Economy

By: Andrew_Butter

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleNouriel Roubini made his name out of a paper he co-authored in 2003 with someone whose name I forget, and everyone else did too. His thesis then was that the U.S. Current Account deficit (basically a long word for the trade deficit in Goods and Services) was unsustainable, so there would be a meltdown.

He was actually wrong for the right reasons; his idea was that the demand for U.S. Treasuries by foreigners was not enough to finance the Trade/Current Account Deficit, that part was right.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 29, 2012

ECB’s Cheap Funds – Waiting for a Turnaround in Lending / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe European Central Bank’s (ECB) financial accommodation through the longer-term refinancing operation (LTRO) in December 2011 and February 2012 amounting to over 1 trillion euros has stabilized financial markets. But, the desired impact on bank lending is not visible yet. Granted, it is a bit too soon to expect positive signs, but it is an important aspect to track in the near term. The objective of LTRO’s is to prevent a severe disruption of the flow of credit to businesses and households. The February LTRO reached a larger number of institutions compared with the December package and included expanded collateral that enabled smaller financial institutions to participate.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 29, 2012

Bill Gross on Bernanke Rolling Out QE3 in April / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Bloomberg

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticlePIMCO founder and co-CIO Bill Gross spoke with Bloomberg Television's Margaret Brennan today, telling Bloomberg TV that the Fed will likely shift focus to mortgage securities to keep borrowing rates low when Operation Twist ends in June.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

What Causes Interest Rates to Rise / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Michael_Pento

The prevailing notion among the main stream media and economists is that interest rates are rising because of improving economic growth. But like many of the readily accepted tenets of today’s world of popular finance, this too has its basis in fallacy.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Quorum Sensing and Its Application to Computer Program Trading of Financial Markets / Interest-Rates / Learn to Trade

By: David_Petch

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis article is going to throw another idea into the pot about computer based algorithms with an idea borrowed from Microbiology titled “Quorum Sensing”. Nature has been in the business of survival and evolution for billions of years, so it should come as no surprise to most that artificial intelligence and computer based design have been borrowed from studying the human mind. Now what do microbes have to do with how computer based trading is performed. A short-course in Microbiology will be required, but it will quickly be tied into how trading software is “sensing” its environment and how the common investor can use this knowledge to derail these trading patterns.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Bernanke – Additional Monetary Accommodation Is Entirely Possible / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Asha_Bangalore

Chairman Bernanke presented an extensive assessment of the labor market this morning. Bernanke repeated his depiction of the labor market as “far from normal,” which was his opinion at the February 29, 2012 semi-annual testimony to the Financial Services Committee of the House of Representatives. He listed positive developments in the labor market – the noticeable increase in payrolls in the three months ended February (+245,000, 3-month moving average), moderation in layoffs in the public sector, longer workweek, the drop in the unemployment rate from 9.0% in September 2011 to 8.3% in February 2012, and the declining trend of new jobless claims. On the negative side, he mentioned it is unclear if the recent gains in payrolls “will be sustained,” and listed another set of indicators to watch – jobless rate, long-term unemployment, and the rate of net hiring.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, March 25, 2012

U.S. Treasury Bond 10-Year Yield Is Heading Up Above 6% / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Andrew_Butter

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe last time the yield on the 10-Year US Treasury dipped below 2% was in 1941; just before (not just after), the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor.

Perhaps then the recent 1.8% low was not just because of Euro-refugees, perhaps we are on the cusp of another Black Swan tail-risk potentially as devastating as World War II? Or perhaps there is another explanation?

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

US Public Debt Growing at Unsustainable Rate / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Colin_Twiggs

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWe often blame Fed monetary policy for the GFC, with interest rates at exceptionally low levels leading to "Greenspan's bubble." Treasury was just as culpable, however, with the massive 2004-2005 surge in public debt flooding the market with liquidity. The repeat in 2008-2011 was more justifiable: the spike in public debt was necessary to offset the sharp decline in private (non-financial) debt which would have caused a deflationary spiral. The effect was to smooth out the fall in total domestic debt (public and private) and create a relatively "soft" landing for the economy.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Peak Imbalances Are Falling, New Bear Market in Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Fred_Sheehan

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe topic at hand is the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond, its falling price, and consequent rising yield. The ten year was trading at a 2.03% yield on March 9 and rose to 2.38% on March 19, 2012. These things happen and the ten-year may fall back to a price and yield that satisfies central bankers and Wall Street. Nevertheless, the era of artificially low government bond yields is coming to a close.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Fed Spreading Financial Cancer That's Killing the Markets and Democratic Capitalism / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Graham_Summers

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhile the vast majority of commentators look at the market action of the last three months and celebrate, I cannot help but shudder. The reason is that the stock market has been propped up solely by Central Bank and/or Federal Government intervention or the hope of more intervention.

That alone is worrisome as it indicates the stock market no longer cares for economic or financial fundamentals (something that has been clear for several years now).

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