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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Why Printing Money Is So Easy for the Fed / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: InvestmentContrarian

George Leong writes: The Federal Reserve is busy looking at what to do next to try to keep the economic renewal on track, as the central bank meets for the last time this year. The Fed also understands its impact will be hindered by the ongoing battle in Congress regarding the pending fiscal cliff.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

U.S. Fiscal Cliff Dynamics Explanation: Household Budget and Family Debt Comparison / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: DK_Matai

Politicians around the world intuitively understand the importance of translating complicated policy and complex laws into language that non-experts, ie, average voters can understand easily.  When it comes to US budget numbers and negotiations, financial complexity can be extremely challenging.  Many Americans and non-Americans don’t know how many zeros there are in one “trillion,” much less what a trillion dollar deficit means in terms of the world's largest economy and its overall impact on the global financial markets.  In a recent poll question, for example, American respondents were given five multiple-choice answers for the question “how many thousands are [there] in a trillion” and just 21 percent answered correctly, barely more than what one would expect if everyone guessed randomly!

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

U.S. National Deficit / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Fred_Sheehan

"Under current law, the Treasury is technically allowed to mint as many coins made of platinum as it wants and can assign them whatever value it pleases. Under this scenario, the U.S. Mint would make a pair of trillion-dollar platinum coins. The president orders the coins to be deposited at the Federal Reserve. The Fed moves this money into Treasury's accounts. And just like that, Treasury suddenly has an extra $ trillion to pay off its obligations for the next two years - without needing to issue new debt. The [current $16.4 trillion national debt] ceiling is no longer an issue." - Brad Plumer, Washington Post, December 6, 2012, "Could the 'Platinum Coin Option' Solve the U.S. Debt Crisis?"

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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 10, 2012

Side Effects from the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Program / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: InvestmentContrarian

Sasha Cekerevac writes: The historic and unprecedented action by the Federal Reserve in enacting extremely loose monetary policy is an attempt to stimulate the economy. I’ve always felt that a central bank should have one mandate: the stability of the currency. The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate; in addition to keeping inflation in check, the American central bank also is attempting to lower the unemployment rate through monetary policy, a task not easily achieved.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, December 09, 2012

U.S. Treasury Bond Market Yields Update / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short. I’ve updated the charts below through today’s close. The S&P 500 is now 3.25% off its interim high of 1,465.77 set on September 14th, the day after QE3 was announced. The interim low since then was 1,353.52, a decline of 7.66% a month later on November 15. The 10-year note closed today at 1.64, which is 24 basis points off its interim high of 1.88, also set the day after QE3 was announced. The historic closing low was 1.43 on July 25th. The latest Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey puts the 30-year fixed at 3.34 percent, three basis point above its historic low set two weeks ago.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, December 07, 2012

US Debt Crisis, Interest Rates and GDP / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Zeal_LLC

With the rancorous fiscal-cliff negotiations dominating newsflow, the markets are rightfully on edge.  Will a deal be reached as time relentlessly dwindles, or not?  How the fiscal cliff is resolved has massive implications for the US economy and markets in 2013 and beyond.  But provocatively, the fiscal cliff is a minor sideshow in the real crisis.  The United States of America is drowning under federal debt.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 03, 2012

A New Strategy for High Income Investing With Ultra-Low Risk / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds

By: Investment_U

Steve McDonald writes: The Wall Street Journal recently ran a segment about a fund that’s trading high-yield corporate bonds with virtually no risk! All compliments of a fold in the bond market that has been staring at us for the last hundred years – and no one noticed it.

This type of corporate bond is essentially pre-refunded. That means the money to buy the bonds back is already set aside, and the buyback date is already set – in some cases in as little as a week.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 03, 2012

Bank of England Cancels Britain's Debt, Coalition Government Budget Deficit Crisis is Pure Propaganda / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The focus of this article is on Britains debt dynamics as the people of Britain continue to be bombarded with propaganda in respect of the unfolding Inflationary Depression that the country has been immersed in since at least early 2008. In terms of politics, propaganda takes the form of declarations for ever greater needs for economic austerity by the Coalition government whilst the Labour party as usual takes the opposite line, when the reality is that there has been no real net economic austerity in Britain, as there has been no cut in government spending and hence the deficit continues to persist let alone any actual repayment of debt that continues to expand by about £120 billion per year.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, November 30, 2012

Will the U.S. Treasury Bond Bubble Finally Burst in 2013 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_Morning

Shah Gilani writes: The Federal Reserve's multi-year prescription of targeting super-low interest rates on federal funds, along with various quantitative easing programs, has pushed yields down on all fixed-income instruments to the benefit of issuers and the detriment of investors.

There is little doubt that the Fed's articulated and executed policies have resulted in a bond-bubble with both short and long-term consequences for investors and the economy.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, November 29, 2012

Have Interest Rates Finally Bottomed? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Submissions

Timothy Lutts writes: The media in recent weeks have been full of stories about the coming Fiscal Cliff. No one knows exactly how Congress is going to deal with it, but one fairly common opinion is that taxes will go up on investment income.

As a result, many smart people have been making moves to take income now rather than in 2013 (or later.)

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, November 25, 2012

Is The US Bond Market Ponzi Scheme Coming To An End? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: WavePatternTraders

The US Bond market has been in a bull market since the 1980s and although I originally was looking for a potential high early this year, we have not really progressed much further, expect that real rates have come down even lower and tested the prior December 2008 lows at 2.5%, potentially creating a double bottom.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, November 22, 2012

How Spanish Debt Default Would Trigger an Epic Financial Crash / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Graham_Summers

Over the last week I’ve introduced the concept of collateral: the little known basis for the entire financial system. We’ve also addressed why any EU sovereign default would bring about an epic meltdown as EU bonds, particularly those of Spain and Italy are the collateral underlying hundreds of trillions of Euros worth of trades for EU banks.

Again, the most important issue for the financial system is the search for high quality collateral.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, November 22, 2012

Debt Crisis Solutions are Leaving Investors Behind / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2012

By: Ben_Traynor

How the losses are being paid for...

It used to be taken for granted that you could put aside some money and earn enough interest to be better off than when you started.

As the world continues to struggle with the aftermath of an enormous credit boom and its subsequent bust, though, this kind of objective seems hopelessly naïve. Events in Europe and the US this week are the latest reminder of this. To see why, let's start with a riddle:

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, November 15, 2012

US Budget Deficit Soars in October; Do You Trust the Politicians to Solve This Looming Crisis? / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: InvestmentContrarian

Sasha Cekerevac writes: The U.S. Treasury Department recently released the budget deficit numbers for October, reporting a massive $120 billion deficit. This compares to a budget deficit in October 2011 of “only” $98.0 billion. While the U.S. economy is not growing at a rapid rate, it’s certainly not shrinking. So in the span of one year, with some growth in the U.S. economy, albeit slow growth, we’ve seen an approximate $20.0-billion monthly year-over-year increase in the budget deficit. I think this shows the true ineptitude of our political leaders.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, November 15, 2012

Facing the Fiscal Cliff Solves 77% of the Deficit Problem in One Move / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Hutchinson writes: With the election over, Wall Street is now obsessing over the possibility that the "fiscal cliff" negotiations may end in stalemate.

Well I have news for them: a stalemate would be good for the U.S. economy, and any deal that does not preserve most of the fiscal cliff is not worth having.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Italian Prosecutor Charges Fitch and S&P Employees With Culpable Incompetence / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2012

By: Andrew_Butter

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI noticed that the public prosecutor in some remote corner of Italy is attempting to get a clutch of hapless employees of S&P and Fitch charged with…well I‘m not quite sure what? Public disorder…incompetence…economic terrorism…driving whilst under the influence of America?

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, November 10, 2012

Bankrupt Greece Unlikely to Get Bailout Next Week / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Ian_R_Campbell

It has now been reported that for logistical reasons it is very unlikely Greece will be able to draw down on further bailout funds before the week of November 19 at the earliest, notwithstanding the approval of the Greek Parliament on Wednesday of the austerity measures proposed last Monday. This is said to result from:

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, November 10, 2012

Bond Markets Train Wreck to Benefit Gold / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Ben_Traynor

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhy investors, fearful of currency depreciation, have turned to gold...

Not so long ago, everyone seemed to think Greece was about to leave the Euro.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, November 08, 2012

The Stage Has Been Set For Another Credit Crisis / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2012

By: Money_Morning

Shah Gilani writes: If you think yesterday's market action was something to worry about, you ain't seen nothing yet.

President Barack Obama getting re-elected sets the stage for another credit crisis.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, November 07, 2012

The ECB and Fed Are Worlds Apart / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Axel_Merk

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe contrast in approach to central banking between the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) is remarkable. ECB President Draghi has done more to lift market concerns with a targeted strategy than Bernanke's blunt attempts. In announcing the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) program, Draghi not only shored up market concerns, but also forced upon European policy makers a pathway for a fiscal framework and centralized fiscal oversight. From a currency perspective, such steps may serve to bolster the euro. In contrast, Bernanke appears willing to do all the heavy lifting on the economy while gridlock remains in Washington. We fear that the unintended consequences of such accommodative policies may undermine the U.S. dollar over the foreseeable future, and ultimately pose significant risks to the U.S. economy.

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