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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Monday, February 13, 2012

Bullish Set-up for Treasury Bonds TLT ETF / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

My near- and intermediate-term work indicate that the iShares Barclays 20 Year Treasury ETF (TLT) established a significant corrective low at 114.62 on Feb 9 and that since then the price structure is doing the work to create a powerfully bullish technical set-up that should propel it towards 120 in a hurry.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, February 09, 2012

The Fed's Quasi-Fiscal Policies / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: David_Howden

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe policies that the Fed embarked on in late 2007 are a sharp departure from the old way of performing monetary policy. In fact, it is difficult to state that the Fed is any longer in the business of traditional monetary policy — understood in the United States as aiming for low inflation and smoothed output volatility. A new breed of monetary policies better referred to as "quasi-fiscal" policies has become the norm.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, February 08, 2012

The Deception of 0% Interest Rates, High Costs and Capital Destruction / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe interminable extension by the US Federal Reserve on the 0% rate into 2014 represents history in the making. It is the adoption of pure heresy in monetary policy, making it mainstream. Worse, it forces foreign central banks to adopt the same destructive policy in the Competing Currency War. Once upon a time, the highest priests from the central bank would admit in a guiding tone that accommodation on interest rates must be temporary. Nowadays it is engrained in the market mindset and permanent in monetary policy. The chronic 0% means the entire financial and monetary system is totally irreparably broken. The old pendulum where the tilt was toward bonds during recession, then toward stocks during recovery, that is all gone, shattered by the endless financial crisis. One must incorporate a new thinking, that the entire financial and monetary system is totally irreparably broken, then adapt in fierce defense. Larry Fink of Blackrock private equity firm made news today by suggesting that 0% bond yields offer no return on investment. How true! He did not offer any accurate reflection of reality that the financial structures are broken, nor that all attempts at remedy were flimsy and misdirected. He gave the ALL IN signal for buying stocks in 2012, thus putting on the risk trade. The immediate ancillary signal is to back up the truck and load up with GOLD also.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, February 08, 2012

Bell Rings for U.S. Treasury Bond Bubble / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pento

They always tell you no one rings a bell when a market top or bottom is reached. But a bell is now ringing for the end of the thirty-year bull market in U.S. debt. And ironically, the bell ringer is our very own U.S. Treasury!

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, February 08, 2012

Has Zero Interest Rate Policy Held Back Economic Recovery? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Fed instituted the zero-interest-rate policy (ZIRP) in December 2008 in response to the financial crisis. The ZIRP policy has been extended to late-2014 following the January 24-25 FOMC meeting, which will make it a six-year project. The current ZIRP policy of the Fed has its critics and advocates; Bill Gross presents arguments in today's Financial Times article for putting an end to the ZIRP policy because it is the root cause of economic woes today. His focus is on the absence of incentives for banks to find suitable projects to finance if they can park money at the Fed risk free for 25bps. He also adds that investors are most likely to shun Treasury securities as "there are multiples of downside price risk compared to appreciation."

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, February 07, 2012

The Fed Resumes Printing Money to Monetize U.S. Government Debt / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Casey_Research

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBud Conrad, Casey Research writes: The Federal Reserve recently announced important policy changes after its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Here are the three most important takeaways, in its own words:

1.The Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions – including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run – are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, February 07, 2012

Ben Bernanke and QE3 / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Michael_S_Rozeff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBen, if you and the other members of the FRB are thinking of the factors that I shall mention, then you are likely not to do QE3 any time soon. If not, then, on your own grounds of economic thought, I believe that you are making a mistake.

My general argument is that the risks of QE3 outweigh the prospective gains, on your grounds, not mine. (My preference is no central bank and free banking and/or privately produced money and credit, but I am laying that aside in this article.)

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, February 07, 2012

US Debt Will Explode Without Changes / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Bloomberg

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJohn Taylor, economics professor at Stanford University, spoke to Bloomberg Television's Trish Regan today and said that the U.S. "could get into a situation like Greece, quite frankly."

Taylor went on to say, "People have to realize it is a precarious situation. The debt is going to explode if we don't make some changes."

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 06, 2012

Bond Investors Pour into Emerging Market Debt in Hunt for Higher Yields / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDon Miller writes: The never-ending hunt for higher yield is leading investors to bet record amounts on emerging market debt.

In just the first two weeks of 2012, governments of undeveloped economies from Asia to Africa sold more than $30.6 billion in dollar-denominated bonds according to Bloomberg News.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, February 04, 2012

The Euro Zone and the Crisis of Sovereign Debt / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Bob_Chapman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe creation of the euro zone may have given participants one currency, but it created other problems as well. One interest rate was supposed to fit all. Those sovereigns on the financial periphery of the 17 nations found low interest rates too good to be true. As a result, the borrowed funds they shouldn’t have borrowed to finance current debt, was thrown off by the economy. During the 1990s we wrote that one interest rate for all would destroy the euro, but as usual no one wanted to listen. The reason was simple, each nation was and is at a different stage of development and a nation paying 2% rates could now borrow at 4%, which is a giant difference. As debt grew the credit crisis occurred and the rules changed externally. As rates rose sovereigns got into more and more trouble.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, February 03, 2012

FOMC Pushes Unchanged Interest Rates Forecast Out to 2014, Fed Sets Inflation Target / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

Among the recent price consolidation, it should not be forgotten that the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve Board decided to leave rates at 0.0% to 0.25% until at least late 2014, according to the FOMC statement released on January 25th.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, February 02, 2012

How Far Will Debt Deleveraging Go? How Much LSD Can an Elephant Take? / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Andrew_Butter

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere is a growing suspicion that the amount debt piled on by both government and the private sector in developed nations over the past few years, is causing distressing symptoms of overdose.

On the subject of overdose, any druggie will tell you, dosage is important. Get that wrong and you can suffer unintended consequences. The other thing, once you popped the pills and the substance is absorbed into your blood, well, you just got to hang on and bear the consequences, until the stuff works its way through your system, if you don’t die first.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, January 29, 2012

The Fed's Inflation Target; QE3, QE4, QE5, etc. are in the Queue / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: David_Knox_Barker

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe U.S. Federal Reserve policy announcement on Tuesday, January 25, 2012 marks an important moment in monetary history. The forecast by a majority of the members of the FOMC for interest rates to hug zero until late 2014 was of interest and points to the FOMC conviction extended global economic stagnation at best, reflecting the long wave forces at work in the global economy. However, more importantly, it was the first time that the U.S. Federal Reserve has clarified its interpretation of its mandate for price stability, i.e. the target for inflation.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, January 29, 2012

Fed Transparency Gap, Central Banks High Wire Balancing Act, Greek Exhaustion Syndrome / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2012

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week we take a brief pause in our series on the choices facing the developed world to look at some items that are catching my attention. We will get back to the US next week, as somehow I think we will not solve our problems between now and next Friday, and there will be plenty left for us to talk about. So today we look at the “shift” in Fed policy, and at the balance sheets of central banks, US GDP, Portugal and the ECB, the LTRO policy, and yes, there’s even a tidbit on Greece. Plenty of ground to cover, so with no “but first,” let’s get started.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, January 27, 2012

Credit Crisis Perfect Storm, Robert Prechter Discusses What's Backing Your Dollars / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2012

By: EWI

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn this video clip, taken from Robert Prechter's interview with The Mind of Money, Prechter and host Douglass Lodmell discuss "real" money vs the FIAT money system, and what is backing your dollars under our current system. Enjoy this 4-minute clip and then watch Prechter's full 45-minute interview here >>

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, January 26, 2012

Merkel Casts Doubt on Saving Greece, ECB insists on Profits on Greek Bonds / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAmazingly, smack in the midst of deal to save Greece from bankruptcy, the ECB not only insists on taking no losses on Greek bonds its holds, it wants a profit on them because it bought them at what seemed at the time to be a substantial discount. The discount was imaginary. The bonds were trading at 7% at the time.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

The Demise of State Sovereignty: Pressures on the Euro Amidst Rising Debt Levels / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Bob_Chapman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWe announced our belief a few weeks ago that the Fed loan to the ECB could with fractional banking be $10 trillion. This past week we found that Credit Suisse shares our ideas as well. We believe that what this move by the Fed and the ECB is telling us that this is probably it. We also ask again how can the banks in the LTRP repay the funds in a timely manner? No plan has been presented before or since, there is no plan. Again, just throw money at the problem. The only player really capable of saving Europe is Germany and they would destroy themselves in the process. Everyone should have seen this coming but no one did except a handful of insiders. The resultant use of funds since the ECB distribution is hardly even mentioned in the media. It is a big dark secret.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

The EU Gives a Lesson in How Not to Restructure Sovereign Debt / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: David_Urban

Debt yields appear to be coming off with the exception of Greece, where the EU is now attempting to strong arm creditors once again with respect to the interest rate on the New Greek debt.

What the EU failed to realize is in that their rush to rescue the banking sector and bail out Greece they have created a bifurcated market in European sovereign debt.  The Greek bailout will only apply to private holders of Greek debt, excluding pension funds, the EU and IMF from the bailout.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Greek Private Bondholders Reject Greece 'Haircut' Debt Default Deal / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleReuters reports Euro zone ministers reject private bondholders' Greece offer

Euro zone finance ministers Monday rejected as insufficient an offer made by private bondholders to help restructure Greece's debts, sending negotiators back to the drawing board and raising the threat of Greek default.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

How to Work Out of the Long and Painful Debt Deleveraging Process / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2012

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week we look at a report called “Working Out of Debt,” about debt and deleveraging, from the McKinsey Global Institute. This is a well-done summary of their longer paper, which has been updated, called “Debt and deleveraging: Uneven progress on the path to growth.” I discussed the original paper both in my regular letter and in Endgame. It is one of the best, most definitive pieces on the topic I have read. For those trying to understand how the deleveraging process will affect their particular world, I think it is a must-read. I have been spending more and more time thinking about the whole process of deleveraging, and am coming to think deleveraging is the critical and fundamental factor shaping the economic environment and impacting every decision countries and businesses are faced with. This paper was done by Karen Croxson, Susan Lund, and Charles Roxburgh; and they are to be especially commended for their insight and work.

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