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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Tuesday, June 26, 2012

Eurozone Debt Crisis, What Will Germany Do? / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week all eyes are on Germany, and the question is "What will Germany do?" We are going to look at four quite-short essays. Two are from GaveKal, one is from Dennis Gartman, and the last is from Kiron Sarkar – all on this very topic.

One of the reasons I really like to read the research from GaveKal is that they are very public when their analysts disagree, and you get to listen to the back and forth. Some of the best analysis I see is when Charles and Louis Gave (father and son) and Anatole Kaletsky do email battle with each other while they are on three different continents. This time it is Anatole and one of their analysts, Francois Chauchat (whom I have not had the pleasure of meeting), differing on whether Germany should (or even can!) leave the eurozone.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, June 24, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of U.S. Treasury 30 Year Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: WavePatternTraders

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHaving finally reached a long standing target of 148-150 (the call was made back when the media and many commentators were proclaiming the US bond market was dead near 135 this year).

Bonds have come roaring back to burn the bears for the umpteenth time over the past 3 or so years.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, June 23, 2012

Germany Could Pull Out of the Euro Before Spain is Even “Saved” / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Graham_Summers

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs I’ve assessed in earlier pieces, neither the Fed, nor the IMF, nor the EFSF, nor the ECB has the firepower or the political backing to prop up Spain or the EU.

This ultimately leaves the ESM, the permanent European Stability Mechanism… which technically doesn’t even exist yet (it’s supposed to be ratified by July 2012).

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 22, 2012

How America Screwed Europe And Why The Road To Recovery Lies in Securitization / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2012

By: Andrew_Butter

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Dutch call it, “Doing-an-English”. That’s when someone takes a liberty real soft and sweet and so-so-polite you hardly even noticed…until you find out you’re pregnant, or worse.

Looks like the Europeans finally noticed. Jose Manuel Barroso’s news at the G-20 summit was… "This crisis was not originated in Europe".

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 22, 2012

Spain's Banks Cook the Books as House Prices Crash Accelerates / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe results of the "independent" Spanish bank stress test by Oliver Wyman Ltd, just out, indicate that the banks will need €62 billion ($78 billion) in a worst case scenario (a 6.5% GDP shrinkage and a 60% home price plunge). Since €100 billion was the number the EU said would go towards the bank bailout announced last week, what's the problem, right?

Well, there are plenty. In a nice aside, the Bank of Spain reported a few days a go that its own stress test won't be published until September, because too much bank staff will be on holiday this summer(!) to do it sooner. Not much of a sense of urgency there, more like going to the beach when your house is on fire. And that might not work out well.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 21, 2012

European Debt Crisis "Imagine the Worst and then Double It" / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: EWI

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWe've all heard the line: Let me give it to you straight.

And in speaking to his counterparts in Spain, an Irish economist did just that.

Ireland has this banking advice for Spain: imagine the worst and double it. [emphasis added]

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 21, 2012

U.S. More Soft Quantitative Easing / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Ian_R_Campbell

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhy Read: To get beyond newspaper reporting to a 'what it may mean discussion'.

Featured Article: Shortly after noon Eastern Time yesterday, multiple articles and other media coverage began of the U.S. Federal Reserve announcement that:

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Eurozone Debt Crisis is Far From Over / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDr. Kent Moors writes: The Greek election last weekend has brought us a brief reprieve. The nation and the Eurozone have stepped back from the brink.

But the larger truth is that little has changed.

Yes, the Eurozone has survived its latest test, yet there is little indication where it will go from here. Considerable continental support for the common currency remains, and EU officials will soon introduce initiatives to consolidate banking and financial policy in the European Union.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Tinker Bell Is Dead, It's Why Bankonomics Won't Work in Europe or US / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2012

By: Gary_North

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIf you have seen the stage version of Peter Pan, you know the scene in which the audience is asked to clap if they want Tinker Bell to live. It's time.

Janet Daley wrote a provocative essay in London's The Telegraph on the day before the Greek election (June 16). She did her best to explain why the eurozone is in crisis. Europe's leaders are living in an illusion of their own making.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Spain and the Western Financial System on the Brink / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Mario_Innecco

This weekend the world kept a close eye on the Greek parliamentary elections and the big worry, from a EU establishment perspective, was that the a victory by the Coalition of the Radical Left or SYRIZA would result in market turmoil today. SYRIZA, under the leadership of Alexis Tsipras, did not win and the New Democracy party triumphed and as a result Greece is now expected to stay the course as far as the EU bailout plan is concerned. So this should have been great news for the markets right? Europe could now move ahead and sort its sovereign debt crisis out.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, June 18, 2012

The Eurozone Bailouts Question No Ones Asking / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Graham_Summers

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhile everyone else is focusing on the Greek elections, the REAL issues pertaining to the EU (namely where the funding for Spain’s bailout as well as future bailouts will come from) continues to be ignored.

Indeed, no one seems to be asking THE key question regarding the EU: Just WHERE is the money for this bailout going to come from?

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Interest-Rates

Monday, June 18, 2012

PIMCO's Gross: Germany is a Credit Risk, Not an Attractive Market / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Bloomberg

Bill Gross of PIMCO spoke to Erik Schatzker and Stephanie Ruhle on Bloomberg TV's "Market Makers" today and said, "I would be leery of German bunds simply because there are only a few scenarios in which they can do well...Germany for me is a credit risk. It's not an attractive market."

Gross went on to say that Spanish bonds are "not a safe environment," and right now, the U.S. and U.K. are the "cleanest dirty shirts."

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Interest-Rates

Monday, June 18, 2012

1930s: Europe Back To The Future? / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: DK_Matai

The fateful day of elections in Greece on 17th June has now arrived. The impact of this Greek ballot will be felt around the world. Beware the rise of political extremism. More than two thousand years ago, Plato -- the influential Greek philosopher -- said, “Dictatorship naturally arises out of democracy, and the most aggravated form of tyranny and slavery out of the most extreme liberty.” Europe's fast-escalating crisis is now more dangerous than Lehman's collapse in 2008, threatening to tip the world into a 1930s-style Second Great Depression unless global leaders work together to take dramatic action.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, June 18, 2012

Eurozone Debt Crisis Bang! Moment is Here / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis Article "Perhaps more than anything else, failure to recognize the precariousness and fickleness of confidence – especially in cases in which large short-term debts need to be rolled over continuously – is the key factor that gives rise to the this-time-is-different syndrome. Highly indebted governments, banks, or corporations can seem to be merrily rolling along for an extended period, when bang – confidence collapses, lenders disappear, and a crisis hits.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, June 18, 2012

Euro-zone Insolvency Call to Arms for Central Banks / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Alasdair_Macleod

The rate at which the majority of the eurozone is descending into insolvency is accelerating. The rescue package for Spanish banks, which appears to have been provisionally set at a figure designed to impress the markets, hardly even produced a dead-cat bounce. All it has achieved is to draw attention yet again to the helplessness of the authorities in dealing with multiple debt-traps. So what is the answer?

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, June 17, 2012

U.S. Government Debt Goes From Frying Pan to Fire / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Andy_Sutton

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis morning, the Treasury Department almost gleefully and proudly announced that foreign holdings of US Debt had hit a record high during the month of April and that bond heavyweight China had upped its holdings after trimming for two straight months. This dovetails nicely with a story that was published earlier this week about the federal reserve and its own holdings of US Debt, which have increased over 450% in the past three years. And no, that is not a typo. The federal reserve now holds over $1.6 Trillion in USGovt debt. Obviously the establishment is thrilled with these developments because it helps maintain the status quo of the dollar standard era. However, there are some serious ramifications that few are paying attention to and are getting almost zero coverage from traditional media outlets. From the AP this morning:

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 15, 2012

Bank of England Panic's, Funnels £140 Billion to Bankrupt Banks Ahead of Eurogeddon / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2012

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBanking stocks soared today on news that the George Osbourne and Mervyn King policy for the Bank of England to give cheap money to the banks to enable them to provide credit to the wider economy. Off course the reason offered is just smoke and mirrors propaganda, the real reason why the Bank of England is yet again stuffing every orifice of the UK Banks with tax payer cash (where ultimate liability lies) is ahead of the high risk of Eurogeddon on Monday following outcome of Sundays Greek election.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 15, 2012

Anti-Fragile Banking / Interest-Rates / Global Financial System

By: William_Bancroft

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWe’ve been big fans of the author and academic, Nasim Nicholas Taleb, for some time. We have enjoyed his best-selling book, ‘The Black Swan’, his media appearances and have used his work to find other interesting works by the likes of Benoit Mandelbrot.

A central theme in Taleb’s writing is that systems should be built not just to withstand 99% of scenarios, but all scenarios. A bit like saying we should build a house that stands for 365 days a year, not one that stands for 364 days only to be toppled by the perfect storm.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 15, 2012

U.S. Bond Market, The Greatest Hoax Ever Perpetrated on Mankind / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Rob_Kirby

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA few years ago, when J.P. Morgan grew their derivatives book by 12 Trillion in one quarter [Q3/07] – I did some back of the napkin math – and figured out how many 5 and 10 year bonds the Morgue would have necessarily had to transact on their swaps alone – if they are hedged.  The bonds required to hedge the growth in Morgan’s Swap book were 1.4 billion more in one day than what was mathematically available to the entire domestic bond market for a whole quarter?

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 14, 2012

How to Protect yourself from Spailout Euro Collapse / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Money_Morning

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleKeith Fitz-Gerald writes: It's unlikely the euro will survive what I'm calling the Spailout... meaning, the bailout of Spain, and the contagion to Italy, etc. Believe me, you're going to be seeing and hearing this non-stop in the media for quite some time. And fear will be running rampant as a result.

I'm going to explain everything about the Spanish situation in a moment - probably more than most people care to know - but first, let me share something with you that's worth your attention.

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