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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Now That Bonds Have Pulled Back As Expected, Maybe We Can Set Up Another Rally / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Avi_Gilburt

I think this market has been providing many investors with whipsaw and head aches, which has also caused much head scratching. (And, yes, that little itch may be telling you something.)

Back in November of 2018, no one even considered the possibility of a bond rally because the Fed was raising rates. And, recently, no one even considered the possibility of any type of top in bonds because the Fed is now lowering rates. Has anyone considered that maybe the Fed does not control the bond market? (See my prior articles for thoughts on this).

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, September 05, 2019

Here’s How You Build a Bond Portfolio That Works / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jared_Dillian

When you invest in bonds, do you buy individual bonds or bond funds?

  • Unless you have a lot of money, you should probably buy bond funds.
  • And even if you do have a lot of money, you should probably buy bond funds.

Let me explain.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, September 03, 2019

The Central Banks’ Time Machine is Broken / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Michael_Pento

Last week we wrote about how global central banks have created an economic time machine by forcing $17 trillion worth of bond yields below zero percent, which is now 30% of the entire developed world’s supply. Now it’s time to explain how the time machine they have built has broken down.

In parts of the developed world, individuals are now being incentivized to consume their savings today rather than being rewarded for deferring consumption tomorrow. In effect, time has been flipped upside down. These same central bankers then broke that time machine by guaranteeing investors they will never cease printing money until inflation has been firmly and permanently inculcated into the economy.

They have printed $22 trillion worth of new credit in search of this goal since 2008. This figure is still growing by the day. But by doing so, they have destroyed Capitalism. Freedom is dying; not by some Red Army but by central banks.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, September 03, 2019

Looking For A US Bond Market Top / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Avi_Gilburt

Those that have followed my bond analysis since November have made quite a bit of money. While the stock market is basically in the same place it was back in the early fall of 2018 when we went long bonds, TLT has rallied from our entry in the 112/113 region in TLT to a high of almost 149.

Let me take a moment to recap my recent history and perspective on bonds. For those that followed our work over the years, you would know that we called for a top to the bond market on June 27, 2016, with the market striking its highs within a week of our call. Right after that top call, TLT dropped 22%, until we saw the bottoming structure develop in late 2018.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, August 25, 2019

If You Don’t Understand Bonds, You Don’t Understand Investing / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jared_Dillian

The first thing I read about investing wasn’t actually a book. It was a pamphlet that I got somewhere, 23 years ago.

The pamphlet said you should invest in bonds as well as stocks. It said bonds went up when interest rates went down, and vice versa. It didn’t go into any more detail.

Well, I did what the pamphlet said, even though I had no idea what the hell I was doing, and I wouldn’t figure out for a few more years why it was a good idea.

I suspect a lot of people don’t take that advice on diversification simply because they don’t know what the hell they are doing.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, August 23, 2019

The Central Bank Time Machine / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Michael_Pento

We are now witnessing the death throes of the free market. The massive and record-breaking global debt overhang, which is now $250 trillion (330% of GDP), demands a deflationary deleveraging depression to occur; as a wave of defaults eliminates much of that untenable debt overhang. The vestiges of the free market are trying to accomplish this task, which is both healthy and necessary in the long term—no matter how destructive it may seem during the process. Just like a forest fire is sometimes necessary to clear away the dead brush in order to promote viable new growth. However, the “firemen” of today (central banks) are no longer in the business of containing wildfires, but instead proactively flooding the forest with a deluge of water to the point of destroying all life.

In point of fact, the free market is no longer being allowed to function. Communism has destroyed capitalism, as the vital savings and investment dynamic has been obliterated. Central banks have decided that savers deserve no return on their so-called risk-free investments and have hence forced into existence humongous bubbles in junk bonds and equity markets worldwide. They have destroyed the savings and investment dynamic and turned time backward.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, August 23, 2019

Seven Key Words That Explain "Stupidly High" Bond Market Prices / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: Dan_Amerman

The front page of the August 16th Wall Street Journal contains the information found in the remarkable graph below.

As can be clearly seen, year to date around the world - including in Austria, Japan, Germany, and the U.S. and the U.K. -  we are in practice seeing some of the most astonishing short-term returns ever seen when it comes to long and ultralong bonds.

The title of the WSJ article is "Forget Stocks. Ultralong Bonds Are The Real Gamble", and the author refers to the current bond price levels around the world as being "stupidly high". If we look at the dominant investment theories from prior decades, which the great majority of financial planners, financial journalists and retirement investors still treat as being the gospel wisdom for today - then he makes some very strong points about just how ridiculous those prices are, and why they shouldn't exist.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 22, 2019

Economist Lays Out the Next Step to Wonderland for the Fed / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Gary_Tanashian

Mr. Steven Ricchiuto, he of a Masters in Economics from Columbia, has laid out the proper plan for the Federal Reserve in this oh so noisy environment in which an unassuming and fairly quiet man is trying to tune out a personal bully on Twitter, tune out the stock market’s daily whipsaw and do what he perceives to be the right thing.

Today, the academic named above throws in with Trump and politely harangues Chairman Powell thusly in an open letter. You can read it by hitting the graphic…

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the....

Stagflation this, Volcker that, deflation the other thing… blah blah blah. But then he gets to the interesting parts, the money parts. Of the post-Volcker era he states…

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, August 20, 2019

The Tip of the Debt-Bomb Iceberg / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Harry_Dent

This week I wanted to bring your attention to a key development. And while overlooked by many, is part of the trigger that will set off the next financial crisis.

All eyes were focused intently this week on US Treasury yields. And a lot of people might have missed what I believe will prove to be a very big event – after the dust from the next big implosion finally settles.
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Interest-Rates

Friday, August 16, 2019

When the US Bond Market Bubble Blows Up! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gary_Tanashian

Amazing isn’t it? It was only back in H2 2018 when everybody but you (because you are as smart as I think you are or because you read NFTRH or nftrh.com) and me was unbelievably bearish about the TREASURY BOND BEAR MARKET!!!

Today… not so much. The herd is absolutely pile driving bonds right now.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 15, 2019

US Negative Interest Rates Go Mainstream - With Some Glaring Omissions / Interest-Rates / Negative Interest Rates

By: Dan_Amerman

The discussion of negative interest rates in the United States has now officially gone mainstream, with the front page of the August 12, 2019 print edition of the Wall Street Journal carrying a prominent discussion of the possibility.

Most of the article consists of various institutional investors talking about why this could be a real possibility. However, as will be explored herein, there were three glaring omissions in the article.

1) What the real source of the negative interest rates would be.

2) The historically unprecedented profits that would be created by such a move.

3) Who those unprecedented profits would mostly go to (and it isn't to the average investor).

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, August 14, 2019

You Have to Buy Bonds Even When Interest Rates Are Low / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jared_Dillian

Interest rates are currently low.

That is by far the biggest concern among bond investors. They are drowning in worry about low interest rates and their effect on bonds. So let’s address that.

Saying interest rates are currently low is another way of saying that bonds are expensive—which makes people not want to invest in bonds. Fair enough.

Stocks are also expensive—but you invest in those!
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Interest-Rates

Sunday, August 11, 2019

Gold and the Bond Yield Continuum / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gary_Tanashian

Have you heard the news? US Treasury bonds are sky rocketing as it turns out there is no inflation amid a global central bank NIRP-a-thon and race to the currency bottom. Going the other way, our 30yr Treasury yield Continuum is burrowing southward.

If you check out yesterday’s post you’ll see proof that the 2018 NFTRH view that people should tune out the bond experts instructing BOND BEAR MARKET!! was 100% on target.

But today the din is coming from the opposite pole. Everywhere you look on the financial websites it’s now about tanking yields, decelerating growth, trade war damage and deflation. Here is the 30 year bond yield (TYX), which is front and center in this hysteria (click the charts below for the clearest view). That is one impulsive looking drop.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, August 10, 2019

US Corporate Debt Is at Risk of a Flash Crash / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

The world is awash in debt.

While some countries are more indebted than others, very few are in good shape.

The entire world is roughly 225% leveraged to its economic output. Emerging markets are a bit less and advanced economies a little more.

But regardless, everyone’s “real” debt is likely much bigger, since the official totals miss a lot of unfunded liabilities and other obligations.

Debt is an asset owned by the lender. It has a price, which—like anything else—can go up or down. The main variable is the lender’s confidence in repayment, which is always uncertain.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, August 10, 2019

EURODOLLAR futures above 2016 highs: FED to cut over 100 bps quickly / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: QUANTO

The sceptre of recesion is growing worldwide. German industrial production registered its biggest annual decline in almost a decade when it reported numbers in June. We covered it here The result was country’s flattest yield curve since the financial crisis.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, August 07, 2019

Are You Still Trying To “Fade” The Bond Market Rally? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Avi_Gilburt

For weeks, if not months, I have been reading one bearish bond article after another. In fact, many of these same writers have been arguing with me for months about the bond rally I expected back in November of 2018. One suggests that this rally is really a “fake,” whereas another has been strongly suggesting that investors fade this rally, with many more supporting their opinions. The problem is that these analysts have been trying to “fade” this rally for the last 10-15% up. Yet, I will gladly bank my “fake” 20% profits on this trade.

As each week goes by, I continue to chuckle about how many people do not understand the context of the markets upon which they opine. Remember how certain analysts and investors were that rates were only headed higher back in November of 2018?

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Interest-Rates

Friday, August 02, 2019

Post FED US Bond Market Yield Spread Falls Further: Risk Aversion is at the Door / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: QUANTO

All Powell needed to do was cut rates and to soften the blow on the short end of the curve, he needed to speak of the strong economy and that would have controlled the 1 month and 3 month and 2 year yields. Instead he ended up confusing about recovery and talking of nonsensicall comical terms like insurance cut etc. These are jargons that one should never use.

The reaction from the bond market was immediate as the 1 month and 3 month yield jumped sharply. Money was flowing out to the long end which is exactly what Powell didnt want to happen when he said "inflation gets baked in to bond yields". Even as he was saying, that is what was happening. We take a look at some of the charts which define and go beyond normal technical and trend lines for forex. We have always suggested: NEVER TRADE FOREX ON TECHNICAL INDICATORS. THEY ARE LAGGING. TO LOOK BACK AND TRADE FORWARD IS FOOLISHNESS.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 01, 2019

US Yield Curve Inverted Months Earlier than Most Think / Interest-Rates / Inverted Yield Curve

By: John_Mauldin

The inverted yield curve is one of the more reliable recession indicators.

I discussed it at length last December. At that point, we had not yet seen a full inversion. Now we have, and it appears the curve was “inverted” back then, and we just didn’t know it.

The Powell Fed spent 2018 gradually raising rates and reducing the balance sheet assets it had accumulated in the QE years.

This amounted to an additional tightening. In fact, the balance sheet reduction may have had more impactthan lower rates.

Now if you assume, as Morgan Stanley does, every $200B balance sheet reduction is equivalent to another 0.25% rate increase, which I think is reasonable, then the curve effectively inverted months earlier than most now think.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, July 30, 2019

US Fed Infinite QE Forever at Zero Bound / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Jim_Willie_CB

The widespread profound and recognized global recession, complete with numerous icon corporate failures, will lead the US Federal Reserve to return to unlimited Quantitative Easing with a Zero Percent chaser. The Jackass calls it a return to Infinite QE Forever at the Zero Bound. Not only is the double step of return to QE with a sequence of interest rate cuts urgently necessary, but the financial markets are demanding it. In fact, they are holding the USFed hostage, as the venerable august body is backed into a policy corner. This time seems different. For ten years, the USFed has relied upon coordinated policy with the Euro Central Bank, having used all the most extreme measures, yet has a systemic failure on its hands. Witness extreme monetary policy failure. The systemic failure is both financial and economic. The bond purchase program wrecked the bond market by driving away legitimate investors, while the ultra-low interest rates wrecked the economy by distorting asset allocation.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, July 23, 2019

We Are in for Decades of Ultra-Loose Monetary Policy / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Jared_Dillian

President Trump recently nominated Judy Shelton to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. She is the United States director for the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, which I had never heard of until her nomination.

Shelton is a Republican and believes in the adoption of a gold standard. She currently believes in lowering interest rates, after spending the Obama years criticizing the Fed for lowering interest rates.

You may wonder how a person can be in favor of a gold standard and also for lowering interest rates at the same time.

I am wondering that, too.

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