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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 22, 2019

How High Debt Affects Bond Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: Harry_Dent

The only Phd economist I allow to speak each year at the Irrational Economic Summit is Dr. Lacy Hunt. (You can watch his presentation from this year’s conference here.) Lacy can take that complex science and still see the forest for the trees. He can still find reality from all of that great theory to real-life outcomes.

It also helps that he advises a $4 billion bond fund at Housington Management and has to get the reality of bond interest rates right or face the consequences – which he has for this entire boom!
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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 22, 2019

The Coming Great Global Debt Reset / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2019

By: Richard_Mills

In the first quarter of 2019, global debt hit $246.5 trillion.

Encouraged by lower interest rates, governments went on a borrowing binge as they ramped up spending, adding $3 trillion to world debt in Q1 alone. It reverses a trend that started in the beginning of 2018, of reducing debt burdens, when global debt reached its highest on record, $248 trillion.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, October 21, 2019

Learn to Spot Reliable Trading Setups: ANY Market, Any Market Time Frame / Interest-Rates / Learn to Trade

By: EWI

Hi Reader,

On October 23, you are invited for a rare, free opportunity to see for yourself how to use simple, everyday price charts to find reliable trade setups -- in any market and any time frame.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, October 18, 2019

US Treasury Bonds Pause Near Resistance Before The Next Rally / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team believes the US Treasuries and the US Dollar will continue to strengthen over the next 2 to 6+ weeks as foreign market and emerging market credit and debt concerns outweigh any concerns originating from the US economy or political theater.  Overall, the major global economies will likely continue to see strength related to their currencies and debt instruments simply because the foreign market and emerging markets are dramatically more fragile than the more mature major global economies.

We believe the US Treasuries may surprise investors by rallying from current levels, near price resistance, to levels above $151 on the TLT chart. 

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Interest-Rates

Friday, October 18, 2019

Federal Reserve’s New QE Transfers Wealth to Its Owner Banks / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: MoneyMetals

Metals investors are positioning themselves for rapidly developing political and geopolitical events, as well as a rapidly expanding Federal Reserve balance sheet.

What started out as a limited intervention to provide temporary liquidity to overnight lending markets has morphed into a massive $60-billion-per-month Treasury-buying campaign. By some measures, it’s even bigger than the last Quantitative Easing program.

The Fed has yet to fully explain why this is all necessary given the lack of an immediate crisis in the real economy. Last week, Fed chair Jerome Powell took great pains to insist that their expanded repo market operations are “not QE” – only to announce a massive new Treasury bill buying program on Friday.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, October 16, 2019

This Is Not a Money Printing Press / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Peter_Schiff

Rene Magritte's 1929 painting "The Treachery of Images," depicts a tobacco pipe with a caption that reads "Ceci n'est pas une pipe," (French for "This is not a pipe"). Everyone who has taken a course in modern art knows that Magritte's exercise in contradiction was meant to draw a distinction between a real thing and a representation of that thing. Perhaps we should send Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell a beret and an easel as he is attempting a similarly surrealistic take on monetary policy.

Early last week, the Chairman announced a new, as yet unnamed, Fed program through which the bank will now buy regular amounts of short-term U.S. government debt. Seeking to counter the rumblings that a new form of quantitative easing would be seen as an admission that the economy may be in trouble, Chairman Powell asserted during the annual meeting of NABE on October 8, "This is not QE. In no sense is this QE". In other words, "Ceci n'est pas QE."

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 15, 2019

“Baghad Jerome” Powell Denies the Fed Is Using Financial Crisis Tools / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: MoneyMetals

Jerome Powell has something in common with Bagdad Bob, Saddam Hussein’s infamous press secretary. They’re both liars, suggests Money Metals podcast guest Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report.

Telling obvious lies with a straight face is part of Powell’s job description. He hopes to maintain order even though anyone who is paying attention knows something extraordinary is going on.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 15, 2019

Will Interest Rate Cuts Be Enough? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Michael_Pento

The main stream financial media is absolutely ebullient about global central banks’ renewed enthusiasm to cut interest rates to a level that is even lower than they already are. And, most importantly, Wall Street is completely confident that theses marginally-lower borrowing costs will not only be enough to pull the global economy out of its malaise; but will also be sufficient to provide enough monetary thrust to blow asset bubbles into the thermosphere.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, October 09, 2019

Whatever Happened to Philippines Debt Slavery?  / Interest-Rates / Phillippines

By: Dan_Steinbock

In early 2017, a Forbes contributor claimed President Duterte will bankrupt the Philippines economy in five years. Half of the period is gone. Will the country default in 2022?

In May 2017, Forbes released a column, which claimed that “New Philippine Debt of $167 Billion Could Balloon To $452 Billion: China Will Benefit.” It was written by Anders Corr, who was portrayed as an independent geopolitical risk analyst. He predicted that the Philippines would be in debt slavery at the end of the Duterte era.

Now that half of that prediction period has passed, let’s see whether Corr was right.
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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, October 09, 2019

The Later United States Empire / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Richard_Mills

In 1917, the United States created the federal debt limit (or ceiling) to make it easier to finance World War One, essentially allowing Congress to borrow money to pay for the war effort by issuing bonds. 

By 1939 with World War Two looming, Congress passed the first aggregate debt limit, but it meant little. For nearly 60 more years the debt ceiling caused nary a ripple, until 2011 when Congress delayed approval of the annual budget, nearly causing a government shutdown. Then a minority in the House of Representatives, Republicans balked at the $1.3 trillion deficit, the third largest in history, so Democrats suggested a $1.7 billion cut in defense spending, since the war in Iraq was winding down. The GOP wouldn’t agree to that, instead offering $61 billion in non-defense cuts including Obamacare. Finally the two sides agreed on $81 billion worth of cuts. 

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Interest-Rates

Monday, October 07, 2019

Yield Curve Inversion Current State / Interest-Rates / Inverted Yield Curve

By: Nadeem_Walayat

An inverted yield curve is basically when the yield on 2 year US government bond exceeds the 10 year US bond yield as worried investors opt to disinvest from risky assets in favour of safer longer term government bonds thus driving down long bond yields below that of nearer term bonds. And the closer the yield curve gets towards towards an inversion the greater the likelihood for a future recession. So far the yield curve inversion has successfully forecast the last 3 economic downturns in the United States. Though the YCI has proved less reliable elsewhere, especially for Australia.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, September 30, 2019

Watching Paint Dry in the Repo Market Part 2 / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Michael_Pento

The Fed has now begun to pave the way for a return to Quantitative Easing. The reason for this was the recent spike in borrowing rates in the Repo market. At his latest press, Chair Powell said this about the spike in the Effective Fed Funds and Repo rates:

“Going forward, we’re going to be very closely monitoring market developments and assessing their implications for the appropriate level of reserves. And we’re going to be assessing the question of when it will be appropriate to resume the organic growth of our balance sheet… It is certainly possible that we’ll need to resume the organic growth of the balance sheet sooner than we thought.”
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Interest-Rates

Thursday, September 26, 2019

The Disaster of Negative Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / Negative Interest Rates

By: Ellen_Brown

The dollar strengthened against the euro in August, merely in anticipation of the European Central Bank slashing its key interest rate further into negative territory. Investors were fleeing into the dollar, prompting President Trump to tweet on Aug. 30:

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, September 24, 2019

Watching Paint Dry in the Repo Market / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Michael_Pento

The world of fixed income trading has been extremely volatile lately. Rates have not only spiked in the Treasury market but borrowing costs in money markets have also become extremely disconcerting. The residual effects from Quantitative Tightening, which ended just this past July, are wreaking havoc on the liquidity in bond markets. Ironically, the Fed’s erstwhile rate hikes and its QT program--what Fed Chairs described as running in the background and like watching paint dry—turned out to be the catalyst for a freeze in the junk-bond market in December of 2018 and is now causing major disruption in the Repo market.

This illustrates clearly the tenuous nature of the bond bubble and that it will someday implode like a supernova---sending yields skyrocketing on a long-term basis. However, it most likely does not yet mark the start of the epoch debt bubble debacle that is in store. We will need a surge of inflation expectations, or the credit markets to shut down on a protracted basis for that to occur. We are moving closer to that eventuality every day.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Now That Bonds Have Pulled Back As Expected, Maybe We Can Set Up Another Rally / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Avi_Gilburt

I think this market has been providing many investors with whipsaw and head aches, which has also caused much head scratching. (And, yes, that little itch may be telling you something.)

Back in November of 2018, no one even considered the possibility of a bond rally because the Fed was raising rates. And, recently, no one even considered the possibility of any type of top in bonds because the Fed is now lowering rates. Has anyone considered that maybe the Fed does not control the bond market? (See my prior articles for thoughts on this).

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, September 05, 2019

Here’s How You Build a Bond Portfolio That Works / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jared_Dillian

When you invest in bonds, do you buy individual bonds or bond funds?

  • Unless you have a lot of money, you should probably buy bond funds.
  • And even if you do have a lot of money, you should probably buy bond funds.

Let me explain.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, September 03, 2019

The Central Banks’ Time Machine is Broken / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Michael_Pento

Last week we wrote about how global central banks have created an economic time machine by forcing $17 trillion worth of bond yields below zero percent, which is now 30% of the entire developed world’s supply. Now it’s time to explain how the time machine they have built has broken down.

In parts of the developed world, individuals are now being incentivized to consume their savings today rather than being rewarded for deferring consumption tomorrow. In effect, time has been flipped upside down. These same central bankers then broke that time machine by guaranteeing investors they will never cease printing money until inflation has been firmly and permanently inculcated into the economy.

They have printed $22 trillion worth of new credit in search of this goal since 2008. This figure is still growing by the day. But by doing so, they have destroyed Capitalism. Freedom is dying; not by some Red Army but by central banks.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Tuesday, September 03, 2019

Looking For A US Bond Market Top / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Avi_Gilburt

Those that have followed my bond analysis since November have made quite a bit of money. While the stock market is basically in the same place it was back in the early fall of 2018 when we went long bonds, TLT has rallied from our entry in the 112/113 region in TLT to a high of almost 149.

Let me take a moment to recap my recent history and perspective on bonds. For those that followed our work over the years, you would know that we called for a top to the bond market on June 27, 2016, with the market striking its highs within a week of our call. Right after that top call, TLT dropped 22%, until we saw the bottoming structure develop in late 2018.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, August 25, 2019

If You Don’t Understand Bonds, You Don’t Understand Investing / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jared_Dillian

The first thing I read about investing wasn’t actually a book. It was a pamphlet that I got somewhere, 23 years ago.

The pamphlet said you should invest in bonds as well as stocks. It said bonds went up when interest rates went down, and vice versa. It didn’t go into any more detail.

Well, I did what the pamphlet said, even though I had no idea what the hell I was doing, and I wouldn’t figure out for a few more years why it was a good idea.

I suspect a lot of people don’t take that advice on diversification simply because they don’t know what the hell they are doing.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, August 23, 2019

The Central Bank Time Machine / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Michael_Pento

We are now witnessing the death throes of the free market. The massive and record-breaking global debt overhang, which is now $250 trillion (330% of GDP), demands a deflationary deleveraging depression to occur; as a wave of defaults eliminates much of that untenable debt overhang. The vestiges of the free market are trying to accomplish this task, which is both healthy and necessary in the long term—no matter how destructive it may seem during the process. Just like a forest fire is sometimes necessary to clear away the dead brush in order to promote viable new growth. However, the “firemen” of today (central banks) are no longer in the business of containing wildfires, but instead proactively flooding the forest with a deluge of water to the point of destroying all life.

In point of fact, the free market is no longer being allowed to function. Communism has destroyed capitalism, as the vital savings and investment dynamic has been obliterated. Central banks have decided that savers deserve no return on their so-called risk-free investments and have hence forced into existence humongous bubbles in junk bonds and equity markets worldwide. They have destroyed the savings and investment dynamic and turned time backward.

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