Analysis Topic: Politics & Social Trends
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, December 13, 2017
Why the Saudis Failed to Cripple Qatar / Politics / Saudi Arabia
By: John_Mauldin
BY ALLISON FEDIRKA : Six months ago, Saudi Arabia announced the closure of its shared land border with Qatar in response to its supposed support of terrorism. The other Gulf Cooperation Council members denied Qatar use of their airspace and ports.
The measures were meant to bring the Qatari economy to its knees. However, the plan didn’t work out as planned and the effort ultimately failed.
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Tuesday, December 12, 2017
Masters of Economic and Political Illusion – in Taxes, Debt, Government, and Markets / Politics / US Politics
By: Raymond_Matison
We are a gullible people, and have become more so with the evolution and development of ever more persuasive propaganda. We accept many commonly popular economic or political “established facts” as truth almost without question. We forget or are ignorant of the fact that there are large well financed organizations in whose interest it is to provide us with information and views that will polarize our own thinking and values to parallel those of these powerful influences. In effect we are provided with the scaffolding for an illusion which we fill in according to our own personal, but mainstream media propaganda and other organization-channeled input. In creating such illusions it seems appropriate to paraphrase President Reagan’s comment: it’s not that we are ignorant, but that we know so much that simply isn’t so.
Saturday, December 09, 2017
China’s Struggle for Market Economy Status / Politics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
Recently, the Trump administration joined the EU and rejected the view that under the WTO terms China should have graduated last year to market-economy status. Now Trump is using Obama’s accession legacy to undermine world trade.The accession debacle intensified a year ago, when then president-elect Trump stated categorically in Iowa that “China is not a market economy.”
In the prior months, Trump had pledged to beat back the Trans-Pacific Partnership TPP (which he buried on his inaugural day), undo the North-American Free Trade Agreement NAFTA (whose fifth round of talks ended recently in simmering friction), and impose huge tariffs on China and rewrite the rules of world trade - in which the accession mess could prove a milestone.
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Friday, December 08, 2017
Republicans Fake Tax Reform / Politics / Taxes
By: Peter_Schiff
After supposedly chomping on the bit for years to pass meaningful tax reform, Republicans are now set to blow an historic opportunity. Whatever version of the Bill that emerges from the House and Senate Conference Committee (which will be signed by President Trump faster than he can down a Filet o'Fish), will be far less than the Republicans envisioned when they finally captured the White House and both Congressional Chambers in 2016. But from what I have seen of the particulars, the revisions to the tax code will offer a marginal, although temporary, win for low income individuals, a major slap for moderately successful wage earners and home owners, (especially in the high tax Blue States) and a huge victory for the extremely wealthy and certain categories of business owners. While it is certain that the plan will add to the growing deficit, its immediate economic and political impact is hard to predict.
Friday, December 08, 2017
The US Fed Might Shrink to Two Members in 2018 / Politics / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: John_Mauldin
BY JOHN MAULDIN : In talking with some of my Fed-watching friends, it appears the world’s most important central bank is about to experience some potentially profound changes—not just in personnel but more importantly in the kind of people who lead it.
Those changes could, in turn, have some serious economic impacts, so it’s worth taking a deeper look.
But before we get into the impending changes at the Fed, let’s quickly review how the organization works.
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Thursday, December 07, 2017
Why Bank Presidents Could Rule the Fed Next Year / Politics / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: John_Mauldin
There’s a possibility the Fed will shrink to three—or even two—governors next year. I wrote about this in great length in my latest Thoughts from the Frontline, and I highly suggest you give it a read.
Among other things, the missing governors could have an enormous impact on monetary policy. But before we delve into the implications again, I must explain the Fed’s Byzantine organizational scheme.
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Wednesday, December 06, 2017
Germany’s Grand Coalition Is Collapsing / Politics / Germany
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : Germany has the fourth-largest economy in the world and the largest in Europe.
This country has been the stable center of the European system for decades. Amid social and political tensions that have torn the European Union since 2008, Germany has been the solid rock on which Europe has rested.
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Monday, December 04, 2017
Heaven Forbid Peace Should Break Out Between the US and North Korea! / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: Antonius_Aquinas
As long as the US Empire can be funded and maintained on the backs of its taxpaying public, the chance of de-escalation of tensions not only on the Korean peninsula, but throughout the world are practically nil. And, as long as the nation’s current interventionist ideology holds sway, it will only be through a financial meltdown that the US’s role as global policeman will come to a much-needed end.
Monday, December 04, 2017
Canada-China Trade Amid NAFTA Friction / Politics / Protectionism
By: Dan_Steinbock
As tensions prevail in the NAFTA talks, Canada is hedging its bets by fostering consensus for a trade agreement with China.On Sunday, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau shall start a trade and tourism dialogue with Chinese officials during his ongoing visit to China. Canada and China began to talk about a free trade agreement (FTA) more than a year ago, following back-to-back meetings of Trudeau and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang in China and Ottawa.
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Sunday, December 03, 2017
A Letter To The IRS: Go F Yourselves You Bunch Of Criminals / Politics / Taxes
By: Jeff_Berwick
Many people will tell you that the IRS and income tax in the US are unconstitutional.
That is totally true… but the CONstitution is also a scam to enslave people while telling them they are free… so who cares.
In any case, bitcoin and cryptocurrencies pose the biggest threat to central banks and governments in their entire, evil history.
“Taxes”, which is just another word for extortion, are not voluntary and the only way to “collect” them is to use violence or threats of violence.
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Friday, December 01, 2017
Britain Pushes for Brexit or Bust / Politics / BrExit
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
There are competing arguments as to how a Brexit will impact Britain. Those opposing a Brexit believe it will have disastrous repercussions on the UK economy, plunging the country into raging inflation, high unemployment, and a skills shortage among others. One of the more pressing concerns for Britain is the exodus of companies from the City of London to other European capitals.
Sunday, November 26, 2017
ISIS Last Stand; End Times for the Caliphate / Politics / ISIS Islamic State
By: Mike_Whitney
Hezbollah, recaptured the city of Abu Kamal in Deir Ezzor province. The city was the last bastion for the terrorist group, ISIS, which, at one time, controlled a vast swathe of land stretching from northern Iraq to central Syria. Now the group has been chased from its last urban hideaway and scattered across the arid wastelands like a nomadic tribe wandering the dessert. Abu Kamal was ISIS’s “last stand”, the final chance to fend off the advancing loyalist forces and reverse the course of the war. But the three-pronged attack proved to be too much for the demoralized jihadists who fled the city northward or surrendered to Syrian troops on the perimeter. Thus, ISIS no longer occupies any of the major towns or cities that once comprised the emerging Wahhabi proto-state. The group has been soundly defeated, its leadership is in tatters and the star-crossed Caliphate has met its end.
Sunday, November 26, 2017
The ‘End of Dreams’, and the Saving of Appearances / Politics / Social Issues
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Once again, to my delight, we’re back with former British diplomat and MI6 ‘ranking figure’ Alastair Crooke and his Conflicts Forum organization. We posted a few of his articles this year and last. This time, Alastair writes a reaction to one of his own articles posted at Consortium News, which I included in the November 18 Debt Rattle at the Automatic Earth. My short comment then: “Former (and current?!) TAE contributor Alastair Crooke draws his conclusions.” This morning, the Conflicts Forum reached out again:
Dear Raul, We took the hint on a recent posting your site that referred to one of Alastair’s articles! …. and below is a comment piece he has done. It is an attempt to be strategic at where we’re going.
Anytime, guys! My first reaction to that piece was that Alastair makes Donald Trump and Jared Kushner’s role in the Saudi crackdown seem very large, which makes the role played by deep state America look small in comparison. And I’m not so sure about that. The riddle of ‘who’s playing who?’ is not a straightforward one. But that’s by no means a criticism (I ain’t criticizing no MI6!). It’s a question.
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Thursday, November 23, 2017
UK Economic Austerity, Bloodletting and Incompetence / Politics / UK Economy
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Punxsutawney Phil Hammond, the UK chancellor, presented his Budget yesterday and declared five more years of austerity for Britain. As was to be expected. One doesn’t even have to go into the details of the Budget to understand that it is a dead end street for both the country and for Theresa May’s Tory party.
So why the persistent focus on austerity while it becomes clearer every day that it is suffocating the British economy? There are many answers to that. Sheer incompetence is a major one, a lack of empathy with the poorer another. Conservative Britain is a class society full of people who dream of empire, and deem their class a higher form of life than those who work low-paid jobs.
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Wednesday, November 22, 2017
India's Brewing Nationalist Movement / Politics / India
By: John_Mauldin
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s revolutionary vision for his country’s future bears little resemblance to its present. Yet polls suggest that a strong majority of Indian society may have bought into that vision.
According to a Pew survey released this week, 88 percent of Indians hold a favorable view of Modi, and 83 percent are satisfied with the state of the economy. Most notably, 70 percent said they were satisfied with the direction their country is moving in.
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Tuesday, November 21, 2017
Saudi Arabia and Israeli Alliance Targets Iran / Politics / Middle East
By: BATR
The consequences of the failed American foreign policy in the Middle East has seldom been more vivid with the defeat of ISIS; the U.S. surrogate in the Syrian conflict. ISIS, a blended creation of the CIA and the Mossad was the inevitable result of sanctioning the murder of Libya's Muammar Gaddafi. With the support of Russian involvement, Syria's President Bashar Hafez al-Assad was able to fend off the imperialist efforts of Israel to remove him from office and destroy his country. Defeating ISIS on the battlefield has never been the intention of the DC shadow government. The consistent policy under every US administration has been to protect the Zionist state above all else. Unfortunately, the Trump regime is no different and certainly does not follow a genuine America First foreign policy.
Monday, November 20, 2017
Trump’s Asia Strategy, Goals and Realities / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: Dan_Steinbock
Trump’s critics claim he lacks a comprehensive approach to Asia. In reality, his current approach is aligned with moderate “America First” goals. But what did Trump really achieve in Asia?
If President Obama’s pivot was based on multilateral trade agreements, which were mainly geopolitical and predicated on exclusionary politics against China, Trump’s interest is in bilateral trade deals, which are fueled by US exports, foreign investments in US jobs and foreign purchases of American military weaponry.
Saturday, November 18, 2017
Universal Credits Christmas Scrooge Nightmare for Weekly Pay Recipients / Politics / UK Benefits
By: N_Walayat
The Universal Credits nightmare is set to continue for the working poor this Christmas as over 100,000 people look set to receive no payment over the festive season. The reason being that Universal Credit can not cope with something as simple as that there being 5 fridays (pay days) during December, where such months can tip recipients over the monthly limits for claiming Universal Credit as UC is not able to do the simple calculation of averaging earnings throughout a year that is the case for the likes of tax credits.
Friday, November 17, 2017
The New US-Chinese Globalization Opportunity / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: Dan_Steinbock
While US postwar policies in Asia are shifting, a new Sino-US historical opportunity has emerged. US and Chinese visions of globalization could still prove complementary.President Trump’s grueling 12-day Asia tour took place amid a worrisome historical moment. Since the mid-2010s, global economic integration - as measured by trade, investment and migration - has come to a standstill. Trade has been falling. Investment continues to stagnate. And slower migration has given rise to elevated global displacement and refugee crises - the worst since 1945.
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Thursday, November 16, 2017
Trump’s Asia Tour: From Old Conflicts to New Prospects / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: Dan_Steinbock
Trump’s grueling 12-day Asia tour was a quest for mega deals. US policies in Asia are shifting. The stress on competitive strategic visions is being redefined by historic bilateral economic opportunities with China, Vietnam, South Korea, the Philippines and other ASEAN and APEC nations..
Diplomatic history has its ironies. In the Obama era, US President initiated a pivot to Asia that he had little time to visit. In the Trump era, US President has been so busy fortressing America against the world that he has had to spend more time in Asia to tame rumors about US disengagement.
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