Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market House Prices Bull Market Trend Current State - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold and Silver End of Week Technical, CoT and Fundamental Status - Gary_Tanashian
3.Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast - April Update - Nadeem_Walayat
4.When Will the Stock Market’s Rally Stop? - Troy_Bombardia
5.Russia and China Intend to Drain the West of Its Gold - MoneyMetals
6.BAIDU (BIDU) - Top 10 Artificial Intelligence Stocks Investing To Profit from AI Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Stop Feeding the Chinese Empire - ‘Belt and Road’ Trojan Horse - Richard_Mills
8.Stock Market US China Trade War Panic! Trend Forecast May 2019 Update - Nadeem_Walayat
9.US China Trade Impasse Threatens US Lithium, Rare Earth Imports - Richard_Mills
10.How to Invest in AI Stocks to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
The Euro Is Bidding Its Time: A Reversal at Hand? - 23rd May 19
Gold Demand Rose 7% in Q1 2019. A Launching Pad Higher for Gold? - 23rd May 19
Global Economic Tensions Translate Into Oil Price Volatility - 22nd May 19
The Coming Pension Crisis Is So Big That It’s a Problem for Everyone - 22nd May 19
Crude Oil, Hot Stocks, and Currencies – Markets III - 22nd May 19
The No.1 Energy Stock for 2019 - 22nd May 19
Brexit Party and Lib-Dems Pull Further Away from Labour and Tories in Latest Opinion Polls - 22nd May 19
The Deep State vs Donald Trump - US vs Them Part 2 - 21st May 19
Deep State & Financial Powers Worry about Alternative Currencies - 21st May 19
Gold’s Exciting Boredom - 21st May 19
Trade War Fears Again, Will Stocks Resume the Downtrend? - 21st May 19
Buffett Mistake Costs Him $4.3 Billion This Year—Here’s What Every Investor Can Learn from It - 21st May 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2019 May Update - Video - 20th May 19
A Brief History of Financial Entropy - 20th May 19
Gold, MMT, Fiat Money Inflation In France - 20th May 19
WAR - Us versus Them Narrative - 20th May 19
US - Iran War Safe-haven Reasons to Own Gold - 20th May 19
How long does Google have to reference a website? - 20th May 19
Tory Leadership Contest - Will Michael Gove Stab Boris Johnson in the Back Again? - 19th May 19
Stock Market Counter-trend Rally - 19th May 19
Will Stock Market “Sell in May, Go Away” Lead to a Correction… or a Crash? - 19th May 19
US vs. Global Stocks Sector Rotation – What Next? Part 1 - 19th May 19
BrExit Party EarthQuake Could Win it 150 MP's at Next UK General Election! - 18th May 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2019 May Update - 18th May 19
US Economy to Die a Traditional Death… Inflation Is Going to Move Higher - 18th May 19
Trump’s Trade War Is Good for These 3 Dividend Stocks - 18th May 19
GDX Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals Update - 17th May 19
Stock Markets Rally Hard – Is The Volatility Move Over? - 17th May 19
The Use of Technical Analysis for Forex Traders - 17th May 19
Brexit Party Set to Storm EU Parliament Elections - Seats Forecast - 17th May 19
Is the Trade War a Catalyst for Gold? - 17th May 19
This Is a Recession Indicator No One Is Talking About—and It’s Flashing Red - 17th May 19
War! Good or Bad for Stocks? - 17th May 19
How Many Seats Will Brexit Party Win - EU Parliament Elections Forecast 2019 - 16th May 19
It’s Not Technology but the Fed That Is Taking Away Jobs - 16th May 19
Learn to Protect your Forex Trading Capital - 16th May 19
Gold Ratio Charts Offer The Keys to the Bull Market - 16th May 19
Is Someone Secretly Smashing the Stock Market at Night? - 16th May 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

U.S. House Prices Analysis and Trend Forecast 2019 to 2021

Crude Oil to Underperform Metals

Commodities / Crude Oil May 15, 2009 - 07:20 PM GMT

By: Ashraf_Laidi


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhile both oil and equity indices reveal preliminary signs of a consolidation, downward momentum is particularly expected to weigh on oil. This is especially supported by my expectation for oil prices to underperform metals, which is signalled by a looming rebound in the Gold/Oil ratio. The chart below cogently illustrates how the turning points in the Gold/Oil ratio are driven by commodity markets' optimism with the economy.

Thus, a rising G/O ratio occurs during deteriorating sentiment (expressed primarily by oil weakness) while a falling G/O ratio emerges in tandem with improved market sentiment. And despite the decline in the G/O ratio from its 14-year highs attained in February, it continued to hold above its 200-day MA, which hasn't been broken since last fall.

Notably, the "green shoots" theme of the past 8 weeks unleashed substantial gains in oil prices (+60% from Feb lows), which outweighed the recovery in gold (+12% from Jan lows), silver (+24% from Jan lows) and copper (+47% from Jan lows). Accordingly, the Gold/Oil ratio fell 37% its February highs of 26.0. And with equity indices due for prolonged pullback (macropicture does not justify stocks further nearing to fair value) and the prospects for another govt-driven boost for banks in Q2 diminishing, risk aversion trades are set to re-emerge in favour of metals (led by silver), the yen, the dollar (to lesser extent than yen)all at the expense of equities and energy prices.

Readers of our March 13 piece Here Comes the 2-Month Cycle recall how we predicted the bear market rally would last for 2 months. If equities stick to this 2-month pattern (as they have since March 2008), then we could be on the cusp of a fresh downleg into late Q2.

Oil technicals suggest an initial target of $54 by early next week, followed by $51.80, with any attempts for a rebound seen limited at $57.80. We reiterate our positive outlook for gold and silver from last week's piece, backed by the notion of a potential win-win situation for gold, silver and copper whereby: (i) any further gains in equities would fuel metals on improved global risk appetite (what's good for China & the green shoots theory is good for metals) and; (ii) any pullback in equities (and banks) could fuel the rotation from financials into metals and ETFs. Technically, each of the last 3 attempts by gold to break below its 200-day MA has failed over the past 4 weeks. $935 appeared as the initial target for gold, followed by $975. A clear break of $1,100 isn't seen until end of Q2.

Despite falling risk appetite over the past days, the dollars stabilization has paled compared to the rebound in the yen as the US currency has yet to shake off the concerns of soaring bond yields, contracting economy and recent remarks by Japanese politicians calling for the halt of treasury purchases (although those sounded like only political posturing by the leader of the opposition party). Canadian dollar seems well past its moment in the sun and is set for further retreat, with USDCAD targeting at 1.1850, followed by 1.1910-- the 200-day MA. The sell-oil story remains a fundamental driver as technicals show gradual signs of a breakdown, eyeing $54.60 as the next key target.

Chapter 6 of my book Currency Trading & Intermarket Analysis devotes in- depth analysis of the historical implications of the Gold/Oil ratio since 1971, clearly highlighting how the turnarounds from the cyclical lows (and highs) were highly predictive of economic turnarounds and shifts in the Feds interest rate policy.

By Ashraf Laidi

Ashraf Laidi is the Chief FX Analyst at CMC Markets NA. This publication is intended to be used for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CMC Markets (US) LLC is registered as a Futures Commission Merchant with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is a member of the National Futures Association.

Ashraf Laidi Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules