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Crude Oil Bears Lower the Tone

Commodities / Crude Oil Jun 25, 2009 - 04:25 PM GMT

By: Seven_Days_Ahead

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWe have been bullish in Crude Oil for some time now, but recently started to look closer for evidence of a temporary pullback phase – particularly after the market had reached a certain Fibonacci projection level. This correction is probably now underway.


The Commodity Trader’s view

WEEKLY CHART – CONTINUATION:

 

On the continuation chart it was a break above 50.00 (area of the major Jan-07 low) that gave an initial bull signal.

The recovery has nearly retraced to the 38.2% level around 76.30, but a dip is expected before this is tested.

 

 

 

DAILY CHART – AUG-09:

 

A medium term base eventually completed in May – in some respects we have been waiting for a post-break pullback.

We had a Fibo projection at 74.50 which was almost reached (but marginally exceeded on the Jul contract). This is related to the fact that the 76.4% pullback level neatly coincides with the 50.76 21-Apr low (see US Dollar Index 11-Jun Update for further detail of method).

In the Commodity Trading Guide we said we didn’t expect a deep slip back. Two possible support areas are

  • the 38.2% level which currently combines with a projected channel base
  • the 50% level which combines with the 58.71 Apr high, with rising support and falling return line just below, near 57.00.

At this stage it is unclear if the higher, 38.2% support will hold or not. Buyers on dips will, in any case, likely favour entry at/above 59.00, with initial stops nicely below that falling return line (57.00 and falling). Partial profits probably targeted towards the 73.90 11-Jun high.

 

Philip Allwright

By Mark Sturdy
Seven Days Ahead
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Mark Sturdy, John Lewis & Philip Allwright, write exclusively for Seven Days Ahead a regulated financial advisor selling professional-level technical and macro analysis and high-performing trade recommendations with detailed risk control for banks, hedge funds, and expert private investors around the world. Check out our subscriptions.

© 2009 Copyright Seven Days Ahead - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

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