The Coming Economic Apocalypse
Economics / Great Depression II Jun 28, 2009 - 12:00 PMBy: Roy_F_Grieder
Astonishing to me is the fact that no one seems to understand the ultimate result of the current policies and practices of Washington D.C. and the Federal Reserve Bank, the Fed. I have studied our economic situation for about 3 hours per day for the last 8 months and conclude we are bankrupt. Think about the facts.
Certainly most of the automobile industry, the airlines, 37 out of 50 states, are bankrupt. The lending industry, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac are bankrupt. Insurance giant AIG, bankrupt. The Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation, or PBGC, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, or FDIC, Social Security including Medicare and Medicaid are rapidly approaching insolvency.
In 1929 personal and corporate debt had risen to 365% of Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, before the Crash. We are now at 375% of GDP. So all of this excessive credit got us into this mess in the first place, right?. And the government and Fed solution to this mess is to print up an extra trillion dollars or so, give it to the lending industry and yell “Lend!, Lend!”. That should work, right?.
Remember TARP?, the money given to the banks and others to remove their “Toxic Assets” (sorry too harsh, let’s rename them “Troubled Assets.) Well, the toxins still remain. They exist in the form of Financial Derivatives, Credit Default Swaps, or CDS, and Collateralized Debt Obligations, or CDO. These financial instruments sound complicated, and they are. They are the inventions of Wall Street wunderkinds, the ones that get paid a couple of millions per year for their “brilliance“. The worldwide market (if you could call it that) or value of CDS is in the neighborhood of 600 trillion dollars, or 10 times the entire Worlds yearly economic output. How the banks and insurance giants are to clear their balance sheets of these toxins is no mystery . They cannot. Was it wise to take TARP money, 20 billion dollars, give it to General Motors when their market cap (the value of their common stock) was 985 million?. Will they pay us back?. No. They are bankrupt. The TARP was a fraud from the start, but it has bought the powers that be some time. Time, time for what?
There is a fever pitch rush to consolidate control over us by the government and the Fed. Look what they are doing to the banks, insurance, lending institutions, auto industry, airlines. Let’s now add health care. By the way, let’s appoint czars and give them power not granted by the Constitution. Why?, what’s the rush? To gain control before we go “out of control”?.
And now 37 out of 50 bankrupt states need to raise fees and taxes, and so does our federal government to pay for “free” healthcare. Raise taxes during a deep recession?, worked great in the early 1930’s, right?. Are these people idiots? Yes they are. Why not have a 2 trillion dollar deficit this year, and run up the national debt to 20 trillion dollars in a few years. Interest on the debt would only be 1 trillion a year at 5 per cent. Chump change. Government borrowing on such a massive scale will compete for the money in the open market and will make overall interest rates rise . Rates already rose a few weeks ago during a large treasury auction. Watch this carefully, mortgage rates will respond by going up. Think what this will do to the already very ill housing market.
Some “experts” as of late say they see “green shoots”, signs of economic recovery. What they “see” may be self-serving or it could be these people are delusional. The Fed Chief, Treasury Secretary, Congress and the President are lying to us. We are bankrupt and they know it. You can put a bandage on a gangrenous appendage and it looks fine, but if the appendage is not amputated the body will die. A bandage is all that is being applied to this gangrenous economy. Toxic.
So, where are we headed?. I suppose the Fed and the Treasury could just continue to print more money. Right up to the point it becomes worthless. The Weimar Republic of 1930’s Germany tried this. In the end the “money” was used to start a fire in a stove or was used as toilet paper. D.C. is too smart for this, right? Is there another way out of this mess?.
During my research I floated the following question to 10 people of various economic means. “If you were told you had no more debt but got to keep what you had, but also you had nothing in your bank or 401K or stocks or IRA, just start anew” 9 out of 10 replied “That works for me”. Astounding, but very telling. How these people responded, along with my research, and what is unfolding (actually unraveling) leads me to the following.
We are going to wake up one morning and Matt Lauer will inform us of the following. “I’ve got good news and bad news for you, America. The good news, for most of you, is that there is no more debt. No government debt, personal debt or corporate debt. You get to keep what you have, your house, your cars, your flat screen TVs. You owe nothing. The bad news, for some of you, is that there are no assets. Your bank accounts are empty, all stock is worthless, and there is nothing in your 401K or IRA.”
None of our “leaders” in D.C. will want to take the blame for this, and will need an excuse for this. Most people will understand and even forgive how this happened when Matt goes on to say:
“What I have told you is the direct result of a computer virus that has infected the worldwide financial complex that completely melted the balance sheets so that no one knows who owes what to whom anymore. This is why we have to start over. Just think of it as hitting the reset button. Details on the new government monetary system will come out shortly.” Problem solved, all absolved.
When the firestorm arrives, you will be glad you live in New Hampshire. At least here we may have a chance. During the dark days of the 1930’s peoples faith and morality held society together. Not so today sadly. Talk with your family, friends and neighbors. Come up with a plan. Things are about to become ugly. Very Ugly.
By Roy F. Grieder
Roy F. Grieder is a 58 year old retired airline captain and part time land developer and economic analyst.
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