Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - 21st Sep 19
Is Stock Market Price Revaluation Event About To Happen? - 21st Sep 19
Gold Leads, Will the Rest Follow? - 21st Sep 19
Are Cowboys Really Dreaming of... Electric Trucks? - 21st Sep 19
Gold among Negative-Yielding Bonds - 20th Sep 19
Panicky Fed Flooding Overnight Markets with Cash - 20th Sep 19
Uber Stock Price Will Crash on November 6 - 20th Sep 19
Semiconductor Stocks Sector Market & Economic Leader - 20th Sep 19
Learning Artificial Intelligence - What is a Neural Network? - 20th Sep 19
Precious Metals Setting Up Another Momentum Base/Bottom - 20th Sep 19
Small Marketing Budget? No Problem! - 20th Sep 19
The Many Forex Trading Opportunities the Fed Day Has Dealt Us - 19th Sep 19
Fed Cuts Interest Rates and Gold Drops. Again - 19th Sep 19
Silver Still Cheap Relative to Gold, Trend Forecast Update Video - 19th Sep 19
Baby Boomers Are the Worst Investors in the World - 19th Sep 19
Your $1,229 FREE Tticket to Elliott Market Analysis & Trading Set-ups - 19th Sep 19
Is The Stock Market Other Shoe About To Drop With Fed News? - 19th Sep 19
Bitcoin Price 2019 Trend Current State - 18th Sep 19
No More Realtors… These Start-ups Will Buy Your House in Less than 20 Days - 18th Sep 19
Gold Bugs And Manipulation Theorists Unite – Another “Manipulation” Indictment - 18th Sep 19
Central Bankers' Desperate Grab for Power - 18th Sep 19
Oil Shock! Will War Drums, Inflation Fears Ignite Gold and Silver Markets? - 18th Sep 19
Importance Of Internal Rate Of Return For A Business - 18th Sep 19
Gold Bull Market Ultimate Upside Target - 17th Sep 19
Gold Spikes on the Saudi Oil Attacks: Can It Last? - 17th Sep 19
Stock Market VIX To Begin A New Uptrend and What it Means - 17th Sep 19
Philippines, China and US: Joint Exploration Vs Rearmament and Nuclear Weapons - 17th Sep 19
What Are The Real Upside Targets For Crude Oil Price Post Drone Attack? - 17th Sep 19
Curse of Technology Weapons - 17th Sep 19
Media Hypes Recession Whilst Trump Proposes a Tax on Savings - 17th Sep 19
Understanding Ways To Stretch Your Investments Further - 17th Sep 19
Trading Natural Gas As The Season Changes - 16th Sep 19
Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - 16th Sep 19
These Indicators Point to an Early 2020 Economic Downturn - 16th Sep 19
Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - 16th Sep 19
Stock Market Looking Toppy - 16th Sep 19
Is the Stocks Bull Market Nearing an End? - 16th Sep 19
US Stock Market Indexes Continue to Rally Within A Defined Range - 16th Sep 19
What If Gold Is NOT In A New Bull Market? - 16th Sep 19
A History Lesson For Pundits Who Don’t Believe Stocks Are Overvalued - 16th Sep 19
The Disconnect Between Millennials and Real Estate - 16th Sep 19
Tech Giants Will Crash in the Next Stock Market Downturn - 15th Sep 19
Will Draghi’s Swan Song Revive the Eurozone? And Gold? - 15th Sep 19
The Race to Depreciate Fiat Currencies Is Accelerating - 15th Sep 19
Can Crypto casino beat Hybrid casino - 15th Sep 19
British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - 14th Sep 19
Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - 14th Sep 19
War Gaming the US-China Trade War - 14th Sep 19
Buying a Budgie, Parakeet for the First Time from a Pet Shop - Jollyes UK - 14th Sep 19
Crude Oil Price Setting Up For A Downside Price Rotation - 13th Sep 19
A “Looming” Recession Is a Gold Golden Opportunity - 13th Sep 19
Is 2019 Similar to 2007? What Does It Mean For Gold? - 13th Sep 19
How Did the Philippines Establish Itself as a World Leader in Call Centre Outsourcing? - 13th Sep 19
UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - 13th Sep 19
Energy Sector Reaches Key Low Point – Start Looking For The Next Move - 13th Sep 19
Weakening Shale Productivity "VERY Bullish" For Oil Prices - 13th Sep 19
Stock Market Dow to 38,000 by 2022 - 13th Sep 19 - readtheticker
Gold under NIRP? | Negative Interest Rates vs Bullion - 12th Sep 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads and Discs's Replace, Dealer Check and Cost - 12th Sep 19
Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - 12th Sep 19
Increased Pension Liabilities During the Coming Stock Market Crash - 12th Sep 19
Gold at Support: the Upcoming Move - 12th Sep 19
Precious Metals, US Dollar, Stocks – How It All Relates – Part II - 12th Sep 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

The Technical Trader Dow, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil & Nat Gas Charts

Commodities / Commodities Trading Jul 05, 2009 - 04:19 PM GMT

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Commodities

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe technical trader looks at the market much differently than most. While many investors are confused when looking at charts which have been marked up by a technician, more experienced traders look at these charts as a map. Short term financial charts are riddles/maps allowing us to put all the pieces together creating a conclusion on how to profit in the near future.


While there are hundreds of indicators, I focus on a handful which has proven to work extremely well together. The fewer the indicators the more simple trading becomes, allowing me to focus on money management and my trading psychology instead of the charts.

Indicators I focus on in order of importance for ETF trading only:

  • Price action (Candles Sticks)
  • Trend lines
  • Momentum (MACD)
  • Price performance (against the underlying commodity & its stocks)
  • Stochastic Indicator
  • Volume

Ok, let’s get to the charts. When I look at charts I can see these patterns naturally. The reason I draw on them is to show you what I am seeing. This is the best way for learning to become a technical trader. You should read some books on chart patterns and Japanese candle sticks but after that, it comes down to watching charts unfold in real-time.

July Special - Save $49 & Get JT Grenough's Crisis Investing E-book Free with membership

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average – US Stock Market Index

This is a chart I put together which clearly shows that we are still in a bear market. Nothing on this chart is bullish for the intermediate term view (2-8 weeks). Short term we are near support and we could see a bounce Monday, but overall we are seeing bearish price action. The high volume selling and low volume rallies are warning the technical trader to protect his positions with hedges or stops.

Also you can see the stocks have formed a short term head & shoulders pattern which is pointing to much lower prices on the Dow (DJIA). This is a very reliable chart pattern which is why I am pointing it out to you.

GLD Fund – The Technical Trader Price Action Chart for Gold

Gold looks to be setting up for another move higher, if all goes well. Currently the price broke its blue downward trend line and now we are waiting for the momentum to turn up which will put the odds more in our favor. Gold stocks are performing well and with any luck the drop in the stock market will send buyers into gold. I continue to wait for a low risk setup before taking a position in gld (gold bullion).

SLV Fund – The Technical Trader Price Action Chart for Silver

Silver continued to slide lower last week and that is because it is not seen as much as a safe haven like it’s big sister GOLD. While informed traders know its value the average Joe does not think to buy silver, they focus on buying gold simply because of the lack of education on their end. Silver can provide massive gains but it does require more risk and skill for locking in gains because of it’ volatility. It does not always move with the price of gold.

Currently we are waiting for silver to reverse and generate a buy signal.

USO Fund – The Technical Trader Price Action Chart for Oil

Oil is sliding lower technically speaking. Support trend lines were broken a few weeks back taking us out of any energy trades. Last week I pointed out the testing of the $39 level at which point sellers stepped in and pointed out that oil was going to have some downward pressure in the near term. The following day oil dropped like a rock as expected.

I did not point out the head & shoulders pattern in oil. If you look at the Dow chart’s head & Shoulder and then back to his chart, you will see the pattern clearly. The neckline was broken on Thursday and that is telling me we could see $33 as the next major support level.

UNG Fund – The Technical Trader Price Action Chart for Natural Gas

Natural gas broke down last week on rising volume. This is telling me that the traders who bought early anticipating the reversal to the upside are bailing out to cutting their losses. This is the exact same thing which USO did before it reversed. I provided the charts last week on this if you want to read more about it.

Anyways this breakdown will flush out the majority of traders and once that is finished prices will reverse and head higher in my opinion. We could see prices drop substantially from here which you can see from my chart below. Traders, who are long, hold on tight!

The Technical Trader Conclusion:

From looking at the Dow chart, stocks are at a short term support level. We could see prices put in a small bounce and trend sideways for a week or two still. But overall it looks like stocks are headed lower. I do not predict price, but I like to point out which way the odds are headed and what to expect if prices follow through with current supply and demand levels. I am very cautious on my long trades at this point moving my stops higher to lock in gains incase the market tanks again this week.

Gold is finding support at the current level but until we get some upside momentum I do not want to take a position.

Silver is still under pressure but looks ready for some sideways price action at this level as it decides which way to go.

Oil appears to be starting a waterfall sell off. Because so many traders are watching and playing oil now, I figure this breakdown will send oil plummeting quickly. At this time I see the $33 level as my first down side target which is a measured move from the head & shoulders pattern and also a previous support level.

Natural gas looks to be starting another leg down. I continue to wait for buy signal for this commodity as I am not jumping on the short side at this time. I may take a short position if I get a nice short setup in the near future.

Hello, I'm Chris Vermeulen founder of TheGoldAndOilGuy and NOW is YOUR Opportunity to start trading GOLD, SILVER & OIL for BIG PROFITS.  Let me help you get started.

If you would like more information on my trading model or to receive my Free Weekly Trading Reports - Click Here

If you have any questions please feel free to send me an email. My passion is to help others and for us all to make money together with little down side risk.

To Your Financial Success,

By Chris Vermeulen
Chris@TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Please visit my website for more information. http://www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen is Founder of the popular trading site TheGoldAndOilGuy.com.  There he shares his highly successful, low-risk trading method.  For 6 years Chris has been a leader in teaching others to skillfully trade in gold, oil, and silver in both bull and bear markets.  Subscribers to his service depend on Chris' uniquely consistent investment opportunities that carry exceptionally low risk and high return.

This article is intended solely for information purposes. The opinions are those of the author only. Please conduct further research and consult your financial advisor before making any investment/trading decision. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.  

Chris Vermeulen Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules