Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. 2019 From A Fourth Turning Perspective - James_Quinn
2.Beware the Young Stocks Bear Market! - Zeal_LLC
3.Safe Havens are Surging. What this Means for Stocks 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
4.Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2018 - Trump and BrExit Chaos Dominate - Nadeem_Walayat
5.January 2019 Financial Markets Analysis and Forecasts - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Why 90% of Traders Lose - Nadeem_Walayat
8.What to do With Your Money in a Stocks Bear Market - Stephen_McBride
9.Stock Market What to Expect in the First 3~5 Months of 2019 - Chris_Vermeulen
10.China, Global Economy has Tipped over: The Surging Dollar and the Rallying Yen - FXCOT
Last 7 days
Stock Market VIX Volaility Analysis - 19th Mar 19
FREE Access to Stock and Finanacial Markets Trading Analysis Worth $1229! - 19th Mar 19
US Stock Markets Price Anomaly Setup Continues - 19th Mar 19
Gold Price Confirmation of the Warning - 18th Mar 19
Split Stock Market Warning - 18th Mar 19
Stock Market Trend Analysis 2019 - Video - 18th Mar 19
Best Precious Metals Investment and Trades for 2019 - 18th Mar 19
Hurdles for Gold Stocks - 18th Mar 19
Pento: Coming QE & Low Rates Will Be ‘Rocket Fuel for Gold’ - 18th Mar 19
"This is for Tommy Robinson" Shouts Knife Wielding White Supremacist Terrorist in London - 18th Mar 19
This Is How You Create the Biggest Credit Bubble in History - 17th Mar 19
Crude Oil Bulls - For Whom the Bell Tolls - 17th Mar 19
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 17th Mar 19
Why Buy a Land Rover - Range Rover vs Huge Tree Branch Falling on its Roof - 17th Mar 19
UKIP Urged to Change Name to BNP 2.0 So BrExit Party Can Fight a 2nd EU Referendum - 17th Mar 19
Tommy Robinson Looks Set to Become New UKIP Leader - 16th Mar 19
Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - 16th Mar 19
Towards the End of a Stocks Bull Market, Short term Timing Becomes Difficult - 16th Mar 19
UKIP Brexit Facebook Groups Reveling in the New Zealand Terror Attacks Blaming Muslim Victims - 16th Mar 19
Gold – US Dollar vs US Dollar Index - 16th Mar 19
Islamophobic Hate Preachers Tommy Robinson and Katie Hopkins have Killed UKIP and Brexit - 16th Mar 19
Countdown to The Precious Metals Gold and Silver Breakout Rally - 15th Mar 19
Shale Oil Splutters: Brent on Track for $70 Target $100 in 2020 - 15th Mar 19
Setting up a Business Just Got Easier - 15th Mar 19
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis Trend Forercast - Video - 15th Mar 19
Gold Warning - Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - Part 1 - 15th Mar 19
UK Weather SHOCK - Trees Dropping Branches onto Cars in Stormy Winds - Sheffield - 15th Mar 19
Best Time to Trade Forex - 15th Mar 19
Why the Green New Deal Will Send Uranium Price Through the Roof - 14th Mar 19
S&P 500's New Medium-Term High, but Will Stock Market Uptrend Continue? - 14th Mar 19
US Conservatism - 14th Mar 19
Gold in the Age of High-speed Electronic Trading - 14th Mar 19
Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! - 14th Mar 19
Why Walmart Will Crush Amazon - 14th Mar 19
2019 Economic Predictions - 14th Mar 19
Tax Avoidance Bills Sent to Thousands of Workers - 14th Mar 19
The Exponential Stocks Bull Market Explained - Video - 13th Mar 19
TSP Recession Indicator - Criss-Cross, Flip-Flop and Remembering 1966 - 13th Mar 19
Stock Investors Beware The Signs Of Recession / Deflation - 13th Mar 19
Is the Stock Market Still in a Bear Market? - 13th Mar 19
Stock Market Trend Analysis 2019 - 13th Mar 19
Gold Up-to-Date' COT Report: A Maddening Déjà Vu - 12th Mar 19
Save Fintech? Ban Short Selling. It's Not That Simple - 12th Mar 19
Palladium Blowup Could Expose Scam of Gold & Silver Futures - 12th Mar 19
Next Recession: Concentrating Future Losses & Bringing Them Forward In Time As Profits - 12th Mar 19
The Shift of the Philippine Peso Regime - 12th Mar 19
Theresa May BrExit Back Stab Deal Counting Down to Resignation, Tory Leadership Election - 12th Mar 19
Phase 1 of Stock Market Correction - 11th Mar 19
Long Awaited Stock Market Pullback has Finally Arrived - 11th Mar 19
US Presidential Cycle and the Stock Market - Video - 11th Mar 19
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis Trend Forercast - 11th Mar 19
Chinese Economic Data Shakes the Global Stock Markets - 11th Mar 19
The Fed Is Playing a Dangerous Game - 11th Mar 19
The Stock Market Has Called the Fed’s Bluff, What’s Next? - 11th Mar 19
Turkey Holiday Bazaar Extreme Jewelry Price Haggling - Fethiye Market - 11th Mar 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock and Finanacial Markets Trading Analysis Worth

The New Cyclical Stocks Bull Market

Stock-Markets / Stocks Bull Market Aug 25, 2009 - 06:13 AM GMT

By: Chris_Ciovacco


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGlobal stock markets remain in a state of positive fundamental and technical alignment, which has bullish implications for the next six to eighteen months. In this article, we will explore:

  • Positive drivers for GDP and the end of the recession
  • A historically significant turn in the S&P 500’s 200-day simple moving average (SMA)
  • Corrections within the context of a bull market

Improving Fundamentals: Last week, leading economic indicators (LEIs) posted their fourth consecutive monthly gain. Global LEIs recently posted their biggest monthly gain since 1975. Going forward, low earnings expectations (relative to the prior year), which we have now, often result in positive earnings surprises as we leave a recession. Positive earnings surprises can help push markets higher.

Strong Technicals and Historical Support (1929-2009): In an August 2, 2009 article, New Bullish Signals Emerge, we suggested it was significant when the slope of the S&P 500’s 200-day moving average turned up on July 29, 2009. In order to better understand how significant the turn in the 200-day might be, we studied market history going back to 1929.

The 2007-2009 bear market ended after a 57% decline which took 517 calendar days to complete. In order to understand the historical significance of the recent turn in the S&P 500's 200-day SMA, we studied turns in the 200-day following bear markets similar to our recent experience. We studied prior bear markets in the Dow (1929-1950) and S&P 500 (1950-2003):
  • Lasting at least 515 calendar days
  • With declines of at least 35%

Five cases meet the criteria above since 1929; following the lows in 1932, 1942, 1970, 1974, and 2002. Chart 1 shows the composite performance 315 trading days after the 200-day moving average turned up in the Dow (1929-1950) or S&P 500 (1950-2009) following bear market declines of 35% or more. The composite graph below shows the average path of the five cases cited after the 200-day moving average turned up, NOT from the market bottom. The study assumes you "missed the bottom" and entered the market after the 200-day moving average turned up. In 2009, the 200-day moving average turned up on July 29th when the S&P 500 was trading at 975, which is represented hypothetically by Point A below. If the market follows the historical composite, Point B hypothetically would occur in the fall of 2010.

As shown in the composite graph above (chart 1), it can be rewarding to be invested after the slope of the 200-day moving average turns positive following a major bear market. Note the correction in the composite graph just prior to the strong rally. We may experience a similar "shake out" correction in August or in the fall of 2009, where the market shakes out investors just prior to a big move. More detailed information cocerning this study and the transition from a bear to a bull can be found in Evidence of New Bull Markets & Favored Asset Classes.

Positive GDPs Numbers On The Way?

Weekly jobless claims can help us possibly spot the end of a recession. Initial claims peaked in the first quarter of this year and have since declined significantly. Businesses reduced inventories at a record pace in the last two quarters. Rebuilding of inventories in the coming quarters will add to GDP. Car and truck sales were hit hard during the recession. Increased sales helped by the clunkers program will also be a positive for GDP. Government spending, one of the few bright spots in GDP in recent quarters, should continue as planned stimulus spending hits a high water mark in 2010. Housing has been a negative component of GDP for numerous quarters. Recent data suggests housing’s drag on GDP should lessen or even become additive in future quarters. From a historical standpoint, steep economic downturns are usually followed by better than expected recoveries. The recent financial meltdown certainly qualifies as a steep downturn.


"The worst recession since the Great Depression is likely coming to an end," says Sung Won Sohn, economics pro-fessor at California State University. Friday's better-than-expected July jobs report fanned hopes for a recovery, as did a report a week earlier showing the economy shrank less than expected in the second quarter.

And that bodes well for stocks, if history is any guide. Following recessions in the post-World War II era, stocks have posted positive returns in nine of the 10 cases both six months and 12 months after the end of the recession, says Ned Davis Research (NDR). The Standard & Poor's 500 has gained an average 9% six months after recessions and 14% a year after them, NDR says. If the recession ended now, the average 9% and 14% gains would put the S&P, at 1010 on Friday, at roughly 1100 in six months and 1150 in a year.

USA TODAY August 19, 2009

Corrections Are A Part Of All Bull Markets

When corrections are in full swing, it always makes sense to review the big picture. We have covered the topics below numerous times in the past, but we will do so again because they remain important and they can help us deal with our biggest enemy – our emotions. The rules below are far from the only way to make buy and sell decisions, but they do serve as a big picture framework to help us make better calls during corrections. The final chart will show the state of the current financial landscape within the context of the rules.

We used these rules to transition away from risk beginning in early 2008. We are using them now to transition back toward risk in 2009.

Currently, we are experiencing volatility within the context of a bull market, just like the red circles above.

The chart above can help us control our fear and avoid making emotional decisions. The results support erring on the side of holding as long as bull market conditions exist (as they do today). If conditions change, we will adjust accordingly. Until they do, we will remain in the mindset of longer-term investing. The evidence continues to support higher stock prices in the months ahead. There is no compelling reason to believe that recent corrections have been anything more than that - normal corrections within a bull market (see red circles in chart above).

While it has little impact on the primary trend, the S&P 500 looks a little tired as of August 24, 2009.

Above are excerpts taken from the August 2009 - Asset Class Outlook, which is available for download. The comments above and those in the outlook are intended for CCM clients, and thus investments or strategies described may be inappropriate for some investors based on their own individual situation and risk tolerance.

By Chris Ciovacco
Ciovacco Capital Management

    Copyright (C) 2009 Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC All Rights Reserved.

    Chris Ciovacco is the Chief Investment Officer for Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC. More on the web at

    Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC is an independent money management firm based in Atlanta, Georgia. As a registered investment advisor, CCM helps individual investors, large & small; achieve improved investment results via independent research and globally diversified investment portfolios. Since we are a fee-based firm, our only objective is to help you protect and grow your assets. Our long-term, theme-oriented, buy-and-hold approach allows for portfolio rebalancing from time to time to adjust to new opportunities or changing market conditions. When looking at money managers in Atlanta, take a hard look at CCM.

    All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Investment recommendations may change and readers are urged to check with their investment counselors and tax advisors before making any investment decisions. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. This memorandum is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. This memorandum is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The price or value of the investments to which this report relates, either directly or indirectly, may fall or rise against the interest of investors. All prices and yields contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This information is based on hypothetical assumptions and is intended for illustrative purposes only. THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS ARTICLE. PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS.

Chris Ciovacco Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules