Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Dollargeddon - Gold Price to Soar Above $6,000 - P_Radomski_CFA
2.Is Gold Price On Verge Of A Bottom, See For Yourself - Chris_Vermeulen
3.Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2018 - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Gold Price to Plunge Below $1000 - Key Factors for Gold & Silver Investors - P_Radomski_CFA
5.Why The Uranium Price Must Go Up - Richard_Mills
6.Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2018 - Video - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Jim Rogers on Gold, Silver, Bitcoin and Blockchain’s “Spectacular Future” - GoldCore
8.More Signs That the Stock Market Will Rally Until 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
9.It's Time for A New Economic Strategy in Turkey - Steve_H_Hanke
10.Fiat Currency Inflation, And Collapse Insurance - Raymond_Matison
Last 7 days
Golden Sunsets in the Land of U.S. Dollar Hegemony - 20th Sep 18
5 Things to Keep in Mind When Buying a Luxury Car in Dubai - 20th Sep 18
Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis - Video - 20th Sep 18
The Stealth Reason Why the Stock Market Keeps On Rising - 20th Sep 18
Sheffield School Applications Crisis Eased by New Secondary Schools Places - 20th Sep 18
Precious Metals Sector: It’s 2013 All Over Again - 19th Sep 18
US Dollar Head & Shoulders Triggered. What's Next? - 19th Sep 18
Prepare for the Stock Market’s Volatility to Increase - 19th Sep 18
The Beginning of the End of the Dollar - 19th Sep 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport 'Approved Used' Bad Paint Job - Inchcape Chester - 19th Sep 18
Are Technology and FANG Stocks Bottoming? - 18th Sep 18
Predictive Trading Model Suggests Falling Stock Prices During US Elections - 18th Sep 18
Lehman Brothers Financial Collapse - Ten Years Later - 18th Sep 18
Financial Crisis Markets Reality Check Now in Progress - 18th Sep 18
Gold’s Ultimate Confirmation - 18th Sep 18
Omanization: a 20-year Process to Fight Volatile Oil Prices  - 18th Sep 18
Sheffield Best Secondary Schools Rankings and Trend Trajectory for Applications 2018 - 18th Sep 18
Gold / US Dollar Inverse Correlation - 17th Sep 18
The Apple Story - Trump Tariffs Penalize US Multinationals - 17th Sep 18
Wall Street Created Financial Crash Catastrophe Ten Years Later - 17th Sep 18
Trade Wars Are Going To Crash This Stock Market - 17th Sep 18
Why Is Apple Giving This Tiny Stock A $900 Million Opportunity? - 17th Sep 18
Financial Markets Macro/Micro View: Waves and Cycles - 17th Sep 18
Stock Market Bulls Prevail – for Now! - 17th Sep 18
GBPUSD Set to Explode Higher - 17th Sep 18
The China Threat - Global Crisis Hot Spots & Pressure Points - 17th Sep 18 - Jim_Willie_CB
Silver's Relationship with Gold Reaching Historical Extremes - 16th Sep 18
Emerging Markets to Follow and Those to Avoid - 16th Sep 18
Investing - Look at the Facts to Find the Truth - 16th Sep 18
Gold Stocks Forced Capitulation - 15th Sep 18
Hindenburg Omen & Consumer Confidence: More Signs of Stock Market Trouble in 2019 - 15th Sep 18
Trading The Global Future - Bad Consequences - 15th Sep 18
Central Banks Have Gone Rogue, Putting Us All at Risk - 15th Sep 18
Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis - 14th Sep 18
Growing Number of Small Businesses Opening – and Closing – In the UK - 14th Sep 18
Gold Price Trend Analysis - Video - 14th Sep 18
Esports Is Exploding—Here’s 3 Best Stocks to Profit From - 13th Sep 18
The Four Steel Men Behind Trump’s Trade War - 13th Sep 18
How Trump Tariffs Could Double America’s Trade Losses - 13th Sep 18
Next Financial Crisis Is Already Here! John Lewis 99% Profits CRASH - Retail Sector Collapse - 13th Sep 18
Trading Cryptocurrencies: To Win, You Must Know Where You're Wrong - 13th Sep 18
Gold, Silver, and USD Index - Three Important “Nothings” - 13th Sep 18
Precious Metals Sector On a Long-term SELL Signal - 13th Sep 18
Does Gambling Regulation Work - A Case Study - 13th Sep 18
The Ritual Burial of the US Constitution - 12th Sep 18
Stock Market Final Probe Higher ... Then the PANIC! - 12th Sep 18
Gold Nuggets And Silver Bullets - 12th Sep 18
Bitcoin Trading - SEC Strikes Again - 12th Sep 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Trading Any Market

1930's Depression Bear Market a Plausable Reality for Todays Stock Market

Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market Sep 04, 2009 - 12:26 AM GMT

By: Joseph_Russo

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHalf Empty circa 1930
In similar fashion to the present wisdom held by the majority of professionals, it is with certainty that the majority of those embedded in the ’29 quagmire viewed their 48% V-shape rally in the Dow as the start of a full economic recovery, an end to the crisis, and a sure sign of a permanent return to prosperity.


As the record clearly shows, their optimistic perceptions could not have been more wrong.  Although we are not predicting a repeat or rhyme of this diabolic sequence of devastating events, we wish simply to bring to readers’ attention the very real plausibility of such an outcome.

Was our modern day 54.4% 18-month crash in the Dow simply an overdone anticipation of Armageddon, or was it an initial warning shot across the bow as was the case in 1929?

In our view, the Dow’s March low of 6469 could easily have been “in early stage process” of pricing in Armageddon rather than “overshooting” to the downside providing what many are touting as an extreme “under-valuation” long-term buying opportunity. 

The largest financial coup in the history of humankind
What stopped the road to ruin?  It was yet another epic financial coup engineered by none other than the Fed and Treasury affecting every means necessary to rescue an irreparably insolvent system. 

With the unique benefit of monopoly over the worlds reserve “make-believe” currency, without limit or immediate consequence, the Fed and Treasury reflexively trounced the constitution, changed rules, and threw as much of their monopoly money at their global banking and wall street buddies as was necessary in order to effect yet another “do-over” for the status quo elites. 

If Bernie couldn’t do it, Let’s try Ben ... Let’s go Ben ... Let’s go Ben... 
Only time will tell if the world will buy into this diabolical scheme in the same way that feeder funds and astute investors bought into Bernie Madoff’s version of reality.

In the five months following our modern-day March low, the Dow has rallied 48.84% to its intraday August 28 high of 9630, which is eerily similar to the percentage gained off the 1929 low. 

Shy of the 1930 retracement, the modern-day rally into August retraced only 40.88% of its entire decline.  Should we match the 52.26% retracement achieved in the V-spike from 1930, the Dow could trade as high as 10,500 and still risk total collapse. 

What might that look like, and what may follow such a plausible reality?  The chart below ponders one such path that the Dow may take in event such dire conditions impose themselves on the masses.

A thirteen-year “M” shaped recovery
The above chart pattern illustrates a five-wave 13-year secular bear market triangle consisting of waves “A” through “E” at cycle degree.  The massive cyclical bull and bear markets strewn over the course of the next ten years might form what may come to be known as the long and torturous “M” shaped recovery. 

Are you prepared to invest or trade such an environment, or perhaps one that entails a hyperinflationary run up to fresh all-time highs?  Rest assured that we are, so join us in our ongoing quest to journal, forecast, and trade the greatest events in financial history.

For those who wish to obtain a visually graphic, easy to understand actionable guide to the various disciplines and real-time actions needed to achieve a broad array of objectives at every level of market engagement, look no further than Elliott Wave Technology’s PLATINUM publication.  Those with a more narrow focus may select from the below list of PLATINUM’S three subsidiary sister publications.

Three More Options: GET ONE TODAY

1. The express focus of Elliott Wave Technology’s Near Term Outlook is to provide equity index traders with actionable guidance over the near and medium term.

2. Our Position Traders Perspective provides actionable guidance for longer-term time horizons.

3. EWT’s Day Traders Perspective assists short-term traders in executing proprietary methodology for capturing price moves of shorter duration.

Elliott Wave Technology’s PLATINUM 500 CHALLENGE:

In our effort to serve and empower as many individuals to trade profitably amid the sharks on the street, we will soon be announcing the availability of $500 PLATINUM service coupons.  We shall award these incredibly generous service coupons to select individuals who apply and qualify for entry.  We will let those interested know when entry applications for the challenge become available, and shall announce further details of the PLATINUM 500 CHALLENGE as they develop, so stay tuned.  If you are interested in pre-qualifying, send us an email containing “PLATINUM 500 CHALLENGE” somewhere in the subject line or body of the email.  We will place your email address on our secure list of PLATINUM-500 applicants, and keep you apprised of further developments and qualification criteria.  

Until then,

Trade Better / Invest Smarter...

By Joseph Russo
Chief Editor and Technical Analyst
Elliott Wave Technology
Email Author

Copyright © 2009 Elliott Wave Technology. All Rights Reserved.
Joseph Russo, presently the Publisher and Chief Market analyst for Elliott Wave Technology, has been studying Elliott Wave Theory, and the Technical Analysis of Financial Markets since 1991 and currently maintains active member status in the "Market Technicians Association." Joe continues to expand his body of knowledge through the MTA's accredited CMT program.

Joseph Russo Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

Adrian Ford
13 Nov 09, 23:39
1930's Depression Bear Market a Plausable Reality for Todays Stock Market

When the Dow crashed to 1962 in 1932 the dollar was backed by gold. Now that it isn't, maybe the Dow will crash in a similar fashion but only in relation to the gold price. i.e.the Dow might stay at the same kind of level nominally and the gold price explode as opposed to the Dow decreasing


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules