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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Gold Commemorates Financial Armageddon Anniversary by Breaking Above $1,000

News_Letter / Financial Markets 2009 Sep 11, 2009 - 10:01 PM GMT

By: NewsLetter


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDear Reader

Lehman's bank bust and financial armageddon anniversary passed quietly as the governments ensured that at NO cost would that event's echo impact on the present, clearly lessons have been learned, there is no longer any such concept of moral hazard where central bank operations are concerned to keep the bankrupt banks afloat, it is the price tax payers are paying for electing inept governments that employ inept regulators that are continuously and perpetually hoodwinked by the market manipulators.

The stocks bull market continued to resolve towards the long standing target zone of Dow 9,750 to 10,000 by closing the week at 9605, up 1.75%. The most recent update of 7th September projects to a target date of late Sept / Early October. London's FTSE is running ahead of other major indices by fulfilling its bull market target of 5,000 for 2009, my take on the price action as of 9th Sept is for the FTSE to mark time as other markets play catchup.

Gold similarly marked time after breaching $1,000, wibble wobbling around the level as gold bugs draw breath, a major analysis is pending.

The US Dollar continued to weaken as a break below 78 resulted in a swift drop to USD 76. After the whole trend of the US Dollar from March 2008 to July 2009 had been accurately mapped out with analysis at one point 6 months in advance of the subsequent trend. The most recent analysis of 14th August concluded in a scenario that forecast the USD to rally from 78 to 90 by the end of the this year on the condition that 75 is not breached i.e. a risk of 300 for 1200 . With the USD at 76, there now exists a serious risk of this scenario being negated and the whole USD analysis built up over the past 18 months being scrapped in advance of generating a completely fresh perspective, next week should clarify the scenario's position as the whole point of a price trigger i.e. 75, is to ensure that one listens to what a market is telling you rather than relying on perma hopes of this that or the other.

Meanwhile Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave International released a free 47-Page eBook, How to Spot Trading Opportunities. Created from the $129 two-volume set of the same name, it’s available free until September 23, 2009. Learn more

By Nadeem Walayat

Editor, The Market Oracle.

Copyright © 2005-09 (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

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1. Financial Crisis, US Market Trends


Planned job cuts by US employers fell to 76,456 in August, down 21% from 97,373 in July says, Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Although job cuts slowed they are up 1.07 million from January through August - 60% higher yoy.

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2. Failure of Economics, the Super Trend and Elements of Deflation

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As every school child knows, water is formed by the two elements of hydrogen and oxygen in a very simple formula we all know as H2O. Today we start a series that starts with the question, What are the elements that comprise deflation? Far from being simple, the "equation" for deflation is as complex as that of DNA. And sadly, while the genome project has helped us with great insights into how DNA works, economic analysis is still back in the 1950s when it comes to decoding deflation. Notwithstanding the paucity of understanding we can glean from the dismal science, in this week's letter we will start thinking about the most fundamentally important question of the day: is inflation, or deflation, in our future?

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3. The Crumbliest Flakiest Stocks Bull Market Never Tasted Before

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The $17 billion hostile bid for Cadbury 'should' bring home the inherent underlying actual strength of this bull market as the bid signals that business is returning to normal. Today's bid by Kraft Foods sent the Cadbury stock price soaring by more than 38% and clearly illustrates that multinationals are increasingly awakening from credit crisis fear to taste greed at being able to pick up corporate giants such as Cadbury at rock bottom recession prices even after a 38% one day price hike. Watch this space for many more mega bids to come as the bull market momentum continues to gather steam as we have a long, long way to go before we reach the Merger and Acquisition mania levels associated with BULL market Peaks.

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4. Deflation, Inflation, Stagflation, Mass inflation, Hyperinflation, Which One Will Get Us?

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One of them will. That's if things work out really well. Two or three will if things go according to the Austrian theory of the business cycle.

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5. America's Economic Crisis, Forecasting Worse Ahead

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Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises (1881 - 1973) said:"There is no means of avoiding a final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."

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6. 911 OMEN Foretells the Global Economic & Financial Future

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A once in a millennium kairotic moment occurred on 9/11 of 2001 that still promises to usher in the most profound and fundamental societal transformation of our times.  This earth-shattering event, which truly represents one the primary apocalytic prophecies of the modern era, remains pregnant with the potential to catalyze unprecedented change in every sphere of life in the USA and beyond.  However, in order to take full advantage of this extremely unique opportunity for political, economic and social revolution, something must first give way.That something is nothing other that the misplaced trust that American citizens have customarily put in their government, their media, their corporations, their academic institutions, their financial institutions, etc.

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7. Robert Prechter Warning Economic Depression and Financial Crisis Worse To Come

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Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave International in his recent 10 page newsletter (download for free) challenges the economic recovery hype with hard facts and independent analysis, and insightful charts. You’ll find out why the worst is NOT over and what you can do to safeguard your financial future.

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