Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
US Coronavirus Trend Trajectory Forecast Current State - 7th Apr 20
Boris Johnson Fighting for his Life In Intensive Care - UK Coronavirus Crisis - 7th Apr 20
Precious Metals Are About To Reset Like In 2008 – Gold Bugs, Buckle Up! - 7th Apr 20
Crude Oil's 2020 Crash: See What Helped (Some) Traders Pivot Just in Time - 7th Apr 20
Was the Fed Just Nationalized? - 7th Apr 20
Gold & Silver Mines Closed as Physical Silver Becomes “Most Undervalued Asset” - 7th Apr 20
US Coronavirus Blacktop Politics - 7th Apr 20
Coronavirus is America's "Pearl Harbour" Moment, There Will be a Reckoning With China - 6th Apr 20
Coronavirus Crisis Exposes Consequences of Fed Policy: Americans Have No Savings - 6th Apr 20
The Stock Market Is Not a Magic Money Machine - 6th Apr 20
Gold Stocks Crash, V-Bounce! - 6th Apr 20
How Can Writing Business Essay Help You In Business Analytics Skills - 6th Apr 20
PAYPAL WARNING - Your Stimulus Funds Are at Risk of Being Frozen for 6 Months! - 5th Apr 20
Stocks Hanging By the Fingernails? - 5th Apr 20
US Federal Budget Deficits: To $30 Trillion and Beyond - 5th Apr 20
The Lucrative Profitability Of A Move To Negative Interest Rates - Pandemic Edition - 5th Apr 20
Visa Denials: How to avoid it and what to do if your Visa is denied? - 5th Apr 20 - Uday Tank
WARNING PAYPAL Making a Grab for US $1200 Stimulus Payments - 4th Apr 20
US COVID-19 Death Toll Higher Than China’s Now. Will Gold Rally? - 4th Apr 20
Concerned That Asia Could Blow A Hole In Future Economic Recovery - 4th Apr 20
Bracing for Europe’s Coronavirus Contractionand Debt Crisis - 4th Apr 20
Stocks: When Grass Looks Greener on the Other Side of the ... Pond - 3rd Apr 20
How the C-Factor Could Decimate 2020 Global Gold and Silver Production - 3rd Apr 20
US Between Scylla and Charybdis Covid-19 - 3rd Apr 20
Covid19 What's Your Risk of Death Analysis by Age, Gender, Comorbidities and BMI - 3rd Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections & Deaths Trend Trajectory - How Bad Will it Get? - 2nd Apr 20
Silver Looks Bearish Short to Medium Term - 2nd Apr 20
Mickey Fulp: 'Never Let a Good Crisis Go to Waste' - 2nd Apr 20
Stock Market Selloff Structure Explained – Fibonacci On Deck - 2nd Apr 20
COVID-19 FINANCIAL LOCKDOWN: Can PAYPAL Be Trusted to Handle US $1200 Stimulus Payments? - 2nd Apr 20
Day in the Life of Coronavirus LOCKDOWN - Sheffield, UK - 2nd Apr 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Trajectory - Deviation Against Forecast - 1st Apr 20
Huge Unemployment Is Coming. Will It Push Gold Prices Up? - 1st Apr 20
Gold Powerful 2008 Lessons That Apply Today - 1st Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video - 1st Apr 20
From Global Virus Acceleration to Global Debt Explosion - 1st Apr 20
UK Supermarkets Coronavirus Panic Buying Before Lock Down - Tesco Empty Shelves - 1st Apr 20
Gold From a Failed Breakout to a Failed Breakdown - 1st Apr 20
P FOR PANDEMIC - 1st Apr 20
The Past Stock Market Week Was More Important Than You May Understand - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus - No, You Do Not Hear the Fat Lady Warming Up - 31st Mar 20
Life, Religions, Business, Globalization & Information Technology In The Post-Corona Pandemics Age - 31st Mar 20
Three Charts Every Stock Market Trader and Investor Must See - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast - Video - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Dow Stocks Bear Market Into End April 2020 Trend Forecast - 31st Mar 20
Is it better to have a loan or credit card debt when applying for a mortgage? - 31st Mar 20
US and UK Coronavirus Trend Trajectories vs Bear Market and AI Stocks Sector - 30th Mar 20
Are Gold and Silver Mirroring 1999 to 2011 Again? - 30th Mar 20
Stock Market Next Cycle Low 7th April - 30th Mar 20
United States Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Forecasts Into End April 2020 - 29th Mar 20
Some Positives in a Virus Wracked World - 29th Mar 20
Expert Tips to Save on Your Business’s Office Supply Purchases - 29th Mar 20
An Investment in Life - 29th Mar 20
Sheffield Coronavirus Pandemic Infections and Deaths Forecast - 29th Mar 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-stocks-bear-market-2020-analysis

US Dollar tumbles against most major currencies falling to historic lows against the British Pound and the Euro

Currencies / Strategic News Dec 01, 2006 - 12:15 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Currencies

The dollar hits new lows against several major currencies, plunging to 1.96 Dollars to the British Pound, 1.33 Dollars to the European Euro, and to 115.5 Japanese Yen to the Dollar. The recent downtrend has been developing since early October, since when US interest rate expectations of further rises have shifted to a possibility of cuts in the new year in the face of a slowing economy on the back of a slump in the US housing market.

The downtrend was recently further reinforced by the outcome of the US election and rumors that the Chinease were planning on significantly diversifying their reserves away from the dollar, including comments made by the Governor of the Chinease Central bank as implying as such.

British Pound (GBP/$) Euro (EUR/$)
   
Japanese Yen ($/JPY) Canadian Dollar ($/Can$)
   

Technically the charts show a breakout to the downside of the dollar against most currencies. The dollar is clearly targeting $2 against the British Pound, having flirted with the mid 1.95's for approaching 18 months now, if that time is taken as the formation for a base for the next down leg in the dollar then that could signify a much more powerful decline in the dollar than most market commentators are estimating at this point in time, The $ could target a move against the Pound to $2.10. Against the Yen $1.10 seems likely, with the Euro likely to rally to Euro/$ 1.40. The strongest beneficiary will probably be the Pound, given that the housing market in the UK is still strong, and economic activity buoyant for the time being at least.

There is also the risk that the dollar may even collapse, if panic hits foreign holders of trillions of dollars of US assets, undoubtedly the worlds central banks will seek to avert a collapse and look to engineer a more orderly decline in the dollar. The Federal reserve may now be forced to keep interest rates on hold as a weakening dollar will feed through to already stubbornly high inflation figures, that continue to trend higher despite the slowing economy. Thus the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates and should the dollar threaten a collapse, may even be forced to raise interest rates. This spells the specter of stagflation as a consequence of recession and a declining dollar during 2007 keeping inflation bubbling above the Feds target range of 1 to 2 %.

Related Articles

Nov 27, 2006
Japanese economy continues to grow as the dollar weakens
Nov 24, 2006
The carry trade could end as Japan looks to raise interest rates on the back of an strengthening economy
Nov 21, 2006
US economy heads for a hard landing in 2007
Nov 10, 2006
China's plan to diversify $1trillion reserves sends the dollar plunging
Nov 8, 2006
China's currency reserves pass $1 trillion and likely to double to $2 trillion by 2010
Nov 03, 2006
How does the US Dollar Defy the Law of Gravity ?
Oct 29, 2006
The US Dollar Bear Market - Is the downtrend about to resume ?
Oct 15, 2006
US Debt Mountain - How can it be serviced ?

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules