Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Gold Price Trend Forecast into 2021, Is Intel Dying?, Can Trump Win 2020? - 20th Oct 20
Gold Asks Where Is The Inflation - 20th Oct 20
Last Chance for this FREE Online Trading Course Worth $129 value - 20th Oct 20
More Short-term Stock Market Weakness Ahead - 20th Oct 20
Dell S3220DGF 32 Inch Curved Gaming Monitor Unboxing and Stand Assembly and Range of Movement - 20th Oct 20
Best Retail POS Software In Australia - 20th Oct 20
From Recession to an Ever-Deeper One - 19th Oct 20
Wales Closes Border With England, Stranded Motorists on Severn Bridge? Covid-19 Police Road Blocks - 19th Oct 20
Commodity Bull Market Cycle Starts with Euro and Dollar Trend Changes - 19th Oct 20
Stock Market Melt-Up Triggered a Short Squeeze In The NASDAQ and a Utilities Breakout - 19th Oct 20
Silver is Like Gold on Steroids - 19th Oct 20
Countdown to Election Mediocrity: Why Gold and Silver Can Protect Your Wealth - 19th Oct 20
“Hypergrowth” Is Spilling Into the Stock Market Like Never Before - 19th Oct 20
Is Oculus Quest 2 Good Upgrade for Samsung Gear VR Users? - 19th Oct 20
Low US Dollar Risky for Gold - 17th Oct 20
US 2020 Election: Are American's ready for Trump 2nd Term Twilight Zone Presidency? - 17th Oct 20
Custom Ryzen 5950x, 5900x, 5800x , RTX 3080, 3070 64gb DDR4 Gaming PC System Build Specs - 17th Oct 20
Gold Jumps above $1,900 Again - 16th Oct 20
US Economic Recovery Is in Need of Some Rescue - 16th Oct 20
Why You Should Focus on Growth Stocks Today - 16th Oct 20
Why Now is BEST Time to Upgrade Your PC System for Years - Ryzen 5000 CPUs, Nvidia RTX 3000 GPU's - 16th Oct 20
Beware of Trump’s October (November?) Election Surprise - 15th Oct 20
Stock Market SPY Retesting Critical Resistance From Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc - 15th Oct 20
Fed Chairman Begs Congress to Stimulate Beleaguered US Economy - 15th Oct 20
Is Gold Market Going Back Into the 1970s? - 15th Oct 20
Things you Should know before Trade Cryptos - 15th Oct 20
Gold and Silver Price Ready For Another Rally Attempt - 14th Oct 20
Do Low Interest Rates Mean Higher Stocks? Not so Fast… - 14th Oct 20
US Debt Is Going Up but Leaving GDP Behind - 14th Oct 20
Dell S3220DGF 31.5 Inch VA Gaming Monitor Amazon Prime Day Bargain Price! But WIll it Get Delivered? - 14th Oct 20
Karcher K7 Pressure Washer Amazon Prime Day Bargain 51% Discount! - 14th Oct 20
Top Strategies Day Traders Adopt - 14th Oct 20
AMD is KILLING Intel as Ryzen Zen 3 Takes Gaming Crown, AMD Set to Achieve CPU Market Dominance - 13th Oct 20
Amazon Prime Day Real or Fake Sales to Get Rid of Dead Stock? - 13th Oct 20
Stock Market Short-term Top Expected - 13th Oct 20
Fun Stuff to Do with a Budgie or Parakeet, a Child's Best Pet Bird Friend - 13th Oct 20
Who Will Win the Race to Open a Casino in Japan? - 13th Oct 20
Fear Grips Stock Market Short-Sellers -- What to Make of It - 12th Oct 20
For Some Remote Workers, It Pays to Stay Home… If Home Stays Local - 12th Oct 20
A Big Move In Silver: Watch The Currency Markets - 12th Oct 20
Precious Metals and Commodities Comprehensive - 11th Oct 20
The Election Does Not Matter, Stick With Stock Winners Like Clean Energy - 11th Oct 20
Gold Stocks Are Cheap, But Not for Long - 11th Oct 20
Gold Miners Ready to Fall Further - 10th Oct 29
What Happens When the Stumble-Through Economy Stalls - 10th Oct 29
This Is What The Stock Market Is Saying About Trump’s Re-Election - 10th Oct 29
Here Is Everything You Must Know About Insolvency - 10th Oct 29
Sheffield Coronavirus Warning - UK Heading for Higher Covid-19 Infections than April Peak! - 10th Oct 29
Q2 Was Disastrous. But What’s Next for the US Economy – and Gold? - 9th Oct 20
Q4 Market Forecast: How to Invest in a World Awash in Debt - 9th Oct 20
A complete paradigm shift will make gold the generational trade - 9th Oct 20
Why You Should Look for Stocks Climbing Out of a “Big Base” - 9th Oct 20
UK Coronavirus Pandemic Wave 2 - Daily Covid-19 Positive Test Cases Forecast - 9th Oct 20
Ryzen ZEN 3: The Final Nail in Intel's Coffin! Cinebench Scores 5300x, 5600x, 5800x, 5900x 5950x - 9th Oct 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

The US Dollar Bear Market - Is the downtrend about to resume ?

Currencies / Forecasts & Technical Analysis Oct 29, 2006 - 11:51 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Currencies

The US Dollar (USD Index) has sold off strongly in recent weeks, does this signify a resumption of the long-term dollar bear market ?

After Bottoming in late 2004 at 80.39 , after which we have basically seen a correction against the downtrend that has taken the dollar to as high as 92.6 in late 2005, since which the trend has been down with recent sideways activity within the range of 87 to 84. With most recent action closing near the lower end of the range at 85.20

The US Dollar Bear Market - Is the downtrend about to resume ?


Technical Analysis
1. Fundamentals-The dollar correction against the downtrend coincided with the Federal Reserves rate rises which now appear to have come to an end, thus a major support leg to the dollar is being withdrawn. The US growth is also expected to slow in 2007, which implies that rates will be cut. The US is running large trade and budget deficits, which are likely to impact negatively on the dollar.
2. Trendlines & Support - The decline from 93 has seen the dollar break two support trendlines up from the 80 low. The most recent up trendline has supported a weak up trend, which has had the characteristics of being corrective against the decline from 93. This weeks activity has again see an attempt to end this uptrend with a decline towards the lower end of the uptrend.
3. MACD - (Bottom indicator) - The MACD is holding along strong support trendlines, which suggest that on a long-term basis the dollar is neither oversold nor overbought, so implies that the sideways trend is likely to be supported.
4. Time - The corrective uptrend form the 80 low has now run for 2 years, which implies that the dollar is running out of time and the downtrend given the recent price action is likely to resume sooner rather than later.

Conclusion - On a break of the support trendline, currently at about 84, is likely to resume the long-term bear market. As long as support holds then the dollar could continue moving sideways into 2007. But the pressures are building for a break lower. On the upside, would require a break above the down trendline, at around 88 to negate this current bear scenerio, such a break would target 93 initially.

Sell Trigger - A break of 84.10
Target - First target 80, 2nd target 70.
Stop-Loss - 87.50 (above the last high).

Nadeem Walayat

(c) MarketOracle.co.uk 2005-2006

Disclaimer - This Forecast / Trade Scenerio is PROVIDED "AS IS" WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EITHER EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, for general information purposes only and not a solicitation or recommendation to enter into any market position, and you are reminded to seek independent professional advice before entering into any investments or trading positions.
The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis online publication. We aim to cut through the noise cluttering traditional sources of market analysis and get to the key points of where the markets are at and where they are expected to move to next
! http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

This article maybe reproduced if reprinted in its entirety with links to http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

 


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments


30 Oct 06, 03:19
Re: The US Dollar Bear Market - Is the downtrend about to resume ?
What about the iranian oil exchange ?

When that comes about it will kill the US Dollar, the russians are also upto something similar, I think your right the dolalr is going to fall sharply and momentumn is going against it !

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules