Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Silver Price Trend Forecast Summer 2020 - 3rd Jul 20
Silver Market Is at a Critical Juncture - 3rd Jul 20
Gold Stocks Breakout Not Confirmed Yet - 3rd Jul 20
Coronavirus Strikes Back. But Force Is Strong With Gold - 3rd Jul 20
Stock Market Russell 2000 Gaps Present Real Targets - 3rd Jul 20
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Big Pharma Stock for Machine Learning Life Extension Investing - 2nd Jul 20
All Eyes on Markets to Get a Refreshed Outlook - 2nd Jul 20
The Darkening Clouds on the Stock Market S&P 500 Horizon - 2nd Jul 20
US Fourth Turning Reaches Boiling Point as America Bends its Knee - 2nd Jul 20
After 2nd Quarter Economic Carnage, the Quest for Philippine Recovery - 2nd Jul 20
Gold Completes Another Washout Rotation – Here We Go - 2nd Jul 20
Roosevelt 2.0 and ‘here, hold my beer' - 2nd Jul 20
U.S. Dollar: When Almost Everyone Is Bearish... - 1st Jul 20
Politicians Prepare New Money Drops as US Dollar Weakens - 1st Jul 20
Gold Stocks Still Undervalued - 1st Jul 20
High Premiums in Physical Gold Market: Scam or Supply Crisis? - 1st Jul 20
US Stock Markets Enter Parabolic Price Move - 1st Jul 20
In The Year 2025 If Fiat Currency Can Survive - 30th Jun 20
Gold Likes the IMF Predicting a Deeper Recession - 30th Jun 20
Silver Is Still Cheap For Now - 30th Jun 20
More Stock Market Selling Ahead - 30th Jun 20
Trending Ecommerce Sites in 2020 - 30th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching the Precipice - 29th Jun 20
APPLE Tech Stock for Investing to Profit from the Machine Learning Mega trend - 29th Jun 20
Student / Gamer Custom System Build June 2020 Proving Impossible - Overclockers UK - 29th Jun 20
US Dollar with Ney and Gann Angles - 29th Jun 20
Europe's Banking Sector: When (and Why) the Rout Really Began - 29th Jun 20
Will People Accept Rampant Inflation? Hell, No! - 29th Jun 20
Gold & Silver Begin The Move To New All-Time Highs - 29th Jun 20
US Stock Market Enters Parabolic Price Move – Be Prepared - 29th Jun 20
Meet BlackRock, the New Great Vampire Squid - 28th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching a Defining Moment - 28th Jun 20
U.S. Long Bond: Let's Review the "Upward Point of Exhaustion" - 27th Jun 20
Gold, Copper and Silver are Must-own Metals - 27th Jun 20
Why People Have Always Held Gold - 27th Jun 20
Crude Oil Price Meets Key Resistance - 27th Jun 20
INTEL x86 Chip Giant Stock Targets Artificial Intelligence and Quantum Computing for 2020's Growth - 25th Jun 20
Gold’s Long-term Turning Point is Here - 25th Jun 20
Hainan’s ASEAN Future and Dark Clouds Over Hong Kong - 25th Jun 20
Silver Price Trend Analysis - 24th Jun 20
A Stealth Stocks Double Dip or Bear Market Has Started - 24th Jun 20
Trillion-dollar US infrastructure plan will draw in plenty of metal - 24th Jun 20
WARNING: The U.S. Banking System ISN’T as Strong as Advertised - 24th Jun 20
All That Glitters When the World Jitters is Probably Gold - 24th Jun 20
Making Sense of Crude Oil Price Narrow Trading Range - 23rd Jun 20
Elon Musk Mocks Nikola Motors as “Dumb.” Is He Right? - 23rd Jun 20
MICROSOFT Transforming from PC Software to Cloud Services AI, Deep Learning Giant - 23rd Jun 20
Stock Market Decline Resumes - 22nd Jun 20
Excellent Silver Seasonal Buying Opportunity Lies Directly Ahead - 22nd Jun 20
Where is the US Dollar trend headed ? - 22nd Jun 20
Most Shoppers have Stopped Following Supermarket Arrows, is Coughing the New Racism? - 22nd Jun 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

AI Stocks 2020-2035 15 Year Trend Forecast

U.S. Dollar Bull Market Scenario Update

Currencies / US Dollar Nov 01, 2009 - 08:58 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Currencies

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe most recent price action has seen the U.S. Dollar manage to hold onto USD 75 support that has propelled the dollar back through 76, however the trend over the past 2 months has been weak. The last update of the US Dollar bull market scenario of mid August 2009 called for a rally that targets USD 90 by the end of this year as long as 75 holds, as indicated by the original chart below :


More analysts joining the Dollar bullish scenario- The bullish dollar scenario is increasingly being joined by more 'big named' analysts including Robert Prechter and then Mike Shedlock, though the U.S. Dollar in actually bottomed in March 2008 with the subsequent trend having deviated little from projections as the January 2009 update illustrated which a forecast sideways ABCDE trend into a late July low.

DEVIATION FROM THE FORECAST - The USD has under performed during the past 2 months which is a sign of weakness and therefore suggests upside action over the coming months will be limited with a far greater risk of downside breakdown then before, so signaling caution.

ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY - The elliott wave pattern nicely resolves to a ABC decline, with C wave comprised of 5 waves down to the recent low. With the USD at 76.36 it is therefore make or break time for this pattern which suggests that the low is in and therefore the trend should now be higher in terms of the wave pattern.

TREND ANALYSIS - USD has marginally breached the down trendline from the 89 high which is a positive, however it has yet to make a higher high which would require the USD to rally and close above 76.60, which is not too distant from the last close. However the trend of the past 3 months has generated much price action in the 76 to 81 range which means its going to be tough for the USD to overcome this and is suggestion of volatile price action.

SUPPORT / RESISTANCE - Immediate support is 75 a decided break of which would target 71. Near term key resistance is as 77.50. As mentioned above there is heavy overhead resistance which implies a volatile trend through it.

PRICE TARGETS - The USD has yet to give any confirming price triggers for the uptrend, the nearest of which is at 77.50. Therefore the USD is still in its downtrend until it manages to break above 77.50 that would target a push towards the 80-81 resistance area. A longer range target for the USD is now 84.

MACD - The MACD indicator is signaling a breakout to the upside for the USD, and is just about ready to give a higher high trigger on a further bounce from the up-trendline, so suggesting the current bounce is more significant than the preceding one from 76 to 77.50.

CYCLES - The recent price action puts the USD into the 2.5 cycle low time window, the question is, is the low a technical bounce or the start of a larger trend ?, but what it does suggest that the current trend has more upside the time, which it can spend either drifting sideways or push the USD through resistance.

SEASONAL TREND - The recent trend was inline with the seasonal tendency for the USD to weaken between August and October 2009, a continuation of which would suggest a strong November and a weak December.

USD Conclusion

The dollar trend has been much weaker than expected therefore this has to factor into the conclusion which now resolves to a much shallower uptrend than previously anticipated, however I do still expect an uptrend to materialise that now projects to a more conservative 84 to be hit during the remainder of this year, probably by early December.

Inter market Implications of a Stronger Dollar - Downward pressure on stocks and commodities priced in dollars such as gold.

Source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article14691.html

By Nadeem Walayat
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-09 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis specialises on the housing market and interest rates. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 400 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules