Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Trumponomics Stock Market 2018 - The Manchurian President (1/2) - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Yield Curve Inversion a Remarkably Accurate Warning Indicator For Economic & Market Peril - Dan_Amerman
3.China is Now Officially at War With the US and Japan - Graham_Summers
4.Markets Pay Attention Moment - China’s Bubble Economy Ripe for Bursting - 16th Jul 18 - Plunger
5.Stock Market Longer-Term Charts Show Incredible Potential - Chris_Vermeulen
6.U.S. Stock Market Cycles Update - Jim_Curry
7.Another Stock Market Drop Next Week? - Brad_Gudgeon
8.The Death of the US Real Estate Dream - Harry_Dent
9.Gold Market Signal vs. Noise - Jordan_Roy_Byrne
10.The Fonzie–Ponzi Theory of Government Debt: An Update - F_F_Wiley
Last 7 days
Moving Averages Help You Define Market Trend – Here’s How - 14th Aug 18
It's Time for A New Economic Strategy in Turkey - 14th Aug 18
Gold Price to Plunge Below $1000 - Key Factors for Gold & Silver Investors - 14th Aug 18
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2018 - Video - 13th Aug 18
Stock Market Downtrend to Continue? - 13th Aug 18
More Signs That the Stock Market Will Rally Until 2019 - 13th Aug 18
New Stock Market Correction Underway - 13th Aug 18
Talk Cold Turkey Economic Crisis - 13th Aug 18
Which UK Best Theme Park - Alton Towers vs Thorpe Park vs Lego Land vs Chessington World - 12th Aug 18
USD is Rising. What this Means for Currencies and Stocks - 12th Aug 18
Hardest US Housing Market Places to Live - Look Out Middle Class - 12th Aug 18
America’s Suburbs Are Making a Comeback - 12th Aug 18
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle, Seasonal Analysis and Economy - Video - 12th Aug 18
Yield Curve Inversion and the Stock Market - Video - 11th Aug 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport 1st Dealer Oil Change Service - What to Expect - 11th Aug 18
How to Setup Webinars and Use Them to Overcome the Barriers in E-Learning - 11th Aug 18
Big US Stocks’ Q2’18 Fundamentals - 11th Aug 18
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2018 - 10th Aug 18
SPX Testing Its First Support Level - 10th Aug 18
Dreaming of a "Comfortable Retirement" on a Public Pension? - 10th Aug 18
The Forrest Gump of All Future Democrat Election Losses - 10th Aug 18
More Uncertainty as Stocks Got Closer to January Record High - 10th Aug 18
Gold and Silver Kill Zone - 9th Aug 18
Even More Cracks in the Gold Dam - 9th Aug 18
Ignore the Stock Market “midterm election year”, Which is “supposed” to be Weak - 9th Aug 18
Stock Market Trend and Volatility Analysis - Video - 9th Aug 18
Tips on Maximizing Small Serviced Offices Space - 9th Aug 18
VIX’s Collapse is Bullish for VIX and the Stock Market - 9th Aug 18
Vestles Platform Offers Several Key Trading Tools - 8th Aug 18
US Stock Markets Higher Until November 2018 - Part 2 - 8th Aug 18
US Stock Markets Higher Until November 2018 - Part 1 - 8th Aug 18
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle and Seasonal Analysis - 8th Aug 18
Is the Stock Market Correction Over? - 7th Aug 18
Yield Curve Inversion and the Stock Market - 7th Aug 18
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast - Video - 7th Aug 18
Trade War! Win the Economic Hostilities Against the Chinese - 7th Aug 18
Technical Analyst Sees Silver as 'Oversold' - 7th Aug 18
Alex Jones Banned! Will Unapproved Opinions Be Censored Off the Internet? - 7th Aug 18
Gold and Silver Stocks On the Verge of the Next Major Decline - 7th Aug 18
First Time Buyers Need to ‘boost the affordability’ of Their Move Alone  - 7th Aug 18
Long Term Care Homes as an Investment are Heating Up! - 7th Aug 18
The Exponential Inflationary Stocks Bull Market - Video - 6th Aug 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport Oil Change Service Dash Warning Message - 6th Aug 18
Restructuring of Western Economic Power - 6th Aug 18
Stock Market Trend and Volatility Analysis - 6th Aug 18
Stock Market and Economy False Narratives That are Just Wrong - 6th Aug 18
VPN – Is It Worth It? - 6th Aug 18
All You Need to Know About Umbrella Companies - 6th Aug 18
Why China Lost the Trade War Before it Even Began - SSEC Stocks Index - Video - 5th Aug 18
Dow Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis - 5th Aug 18
Iran's Rial Currency Is In A Death Spiral, Again - 5th Aug 18
IMF Produces Another Bogus Venezuela Inflation Forecast - 5th Aug 18
Gold & Silver Precious Metals Monthly Charts - 5th Aug 18
Time to Position for a Decade-Long Bull Market in Natural Resources - 5th Aug 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Trading Any Market

U.S. Dollar Bull Market Scenario Update

Currencies / US Dollar Nov 01, 2009 - 08:58 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Currencies

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe most recent price action has seen the U.S. Dollar manage to hold onto USD 75 support that has propelled the dollar back through 76, however the trend over the past 2 months has been weak. The last update of the US Dollar bull market scenario of mid August 2009 called for a rally that targets USD 90 by the end of this year as long as 75 holds, as indicated by the original chart below :


More analysts joining the Dollar bullish scenario- The bullish dollar scenario is increasingly being joined by more 'big named' analysts including Robert Prechter and then Mike Shedlock, though the U.S. Dollar in actually bottomed in March 2008 with the subsequent trend having deviated little from projections as the January 2009 update illustrated which a forecast sideways ABCDE trend into a late July low.

DEVIATION FROM THE FORECAST - The USD has under performed during the past 2 months which is a sign of weakness and therefore suggests upside action over the coming months will be limited with a far greater risk of downside breakdown then before, so signaling caution.

ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY - The elliott wave pattern nicely resolves to a ABC decline, with C wave comprised of 5 waves down to the recent low. With the USD at 76.36 it is therefore make or break time for this pattern which suggests that the low is in and therefore the trend should now be higher in terms of the wave pattern.

TREND ANALYSIS - USD has marginally breached the down trendline from the 89 high which is a positive, however it has yet to make a higher high which would require the USD to rally and close above 76.60, which is not too distant from the last close. However the trend of the past 3 months has generated much price action in the 76 to 81 range which means its going to be tough for the USD to overcome this and is suggestion of volatile price action.

SUPPORT / RESISTANCE - Immediate support is 75 a decided break of which would target 71. Near term key resistance is as 77.50. As mentioned above there is heavy overhead resistance which implies a volatile trend through it.

PRICE TARGETS - The USD has yet to give any confirming price triggers for the uptrend, the nearest of which is at 77.50. Therefore the USD is still in its downtrend until it manages to break above 77.50 that would target a push towards the 80-81 resistance area. A longer range target for the USD is now 84.

MACD - The MACD indicator is signaling a breakout to the upside for the USD, and is just about ready to give a higher high trigger on a further bounce from the up-trendline, so suggesting the current bounce is more significant than the preceding one from 76 to 77.50.

CYCLES - The recent price action puts the USD into the 2.5 cycle low time window, the question is, is the low a technical bounce or the start of a larger trend ?, but what it does suggest that the current trend has more upside the time, which it can spend either drifting sideways or push the USD through resistance.

SEASONAL TREND - The recent trend was inline with the seasonal tendency for the USD to weaken between August and October 2009, a continuation of which would suggest a strong November and a weak December.

USD Conclusion

The dollar trend has been much weaker than expected therefore this has to factor into the conclusion which now resolves to a much shallower uptrend than previously anticipated, however I do still expect an uptrend to materialise that now projects to a more conservative 84 to be hit during the remainder of this year, probably by early December.

Inter market Implications of a Stronger Dollar - Downward pressure on stocks and commodities priced in dollars such as gold.

Source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article14691.html

By Nadeem Walayat
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-09 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis specialises on the housing market and interest rates. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 400 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules