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Elliott Wave Trading

U.S. Dollar Collapse 2012

Currencies / US Dollar Dec 29, 2009 - 03:19 PM GMT

By: Christopher_Laird

Currencies

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDevolution of the USD 2012? - As the first public article for me just before 2010, it seems appropriate for me to comment on one of the biggest stories we will be all facing – that is an end game of events leading to the end of the USD. The implications for the world are no less than Armageddon – like. I mean it.


Before we get into some details, I have been working on forecasts for 2010, and my study of the USD situation and how much time it has left.

I first came to the conclusion that it was roughly (and I am getting close here on timing, I’m sure of this) two years from 2010. Actually, the calculation is two more years of relative USD functionality before the world realizes in about a shocking week’s time that the USD is just about to really go belly up. It’s not 5 years out anymore in my calculations, we have roughly two more years left.

Wait, that coincides with 2012!

It then occurred to me, as an afterthought, wait a minute – that takes us right to 2012!…That has some real significance for many reasons. It was an accident my analysis led to that date, I did not ask ‘Will the USD collapse in 2012?’ and then do the analysis, it was the other way around. I did the analysis first and then was impressed that the date actually came to that fateful date all the prophecies are going crazy about – 2012.

I find this coincidence remarkable. I think we all are aware of many economic and political disasters that will unfold if the USD were to actually collapse. The US economy would stop dead for a period of time. And, the rest of the world, hitherto dependent on the old industrial/consumer economic model will have to find a new economic paradigm to plan their economies…

Let me interpret that last paragraph for you – The USD collapse means the entire structure of the world economy will collapse for a period of time, with a collapsed supply chain, among other things. The world will also go through cataclysms politically during that period. That usually leads to massive wars… starvation and mass homelessness – around the world…

If it fits, then it fits.

Gee, that sounds familiar, wait, it’s the same stuff being prophesied in many of the numerous2012 prophecies of various major religions! Hm, that is quite the coincidence. The demise of the USD will collapse the entire world economy and lead to collapsed polities, and then a massive world war. Yep, it fits like a glove. And try this on for size- I do not believe in coincidence.

Interesting.

Of course, some people cringe at an analyst such as myself talking about ‘religious bunkum prophecies’ or so it goes. But consider that this analyst is a mathematician and also a former Oracle database systems engineer. I’m not exactly some dreamer. I certainly know the analytical methods…

So, why is Chris saying this stuff then? How can you combine prophecies with analytical methods? Well, for one thing, I have a thinking paradigm where ‘if it works, it must be true, don’t leave out weird things in analysis, insisting only on some calculation based prediction’. That’s what for example chartists do. Everything must be analytical to lots of people, and that is totally wrong often! (How do you think I have been able to make major predictions months ahead of others???)

The trouble with being analytical all the time is that there are times, and this is proven, where chaos enters the picture and everything changes. Chaos is not predictable, by definition. But let’s not digress too much.

I have various metrics I’m using to come to this ‘USD has 2 years left’ proposition. By the way, I am not saying definitively, yet, that the USD only has 2 years left. This is a proposition we are discussing here, not yet a certainty.

What would happen in a USD collapse?

  • The US and Western economies will all face insolvency simultaneously, with the US first in line.
  • The entire Western industrial/consumer/credit economy will fall apart so fast it will make your head spin. The supply chain will stop and stores will empty in less than 3 days.
  • The USD will fall over 50% in one week’s time, till it temporarily stabilizes before its final last gasp. Remember the Lehman panic over those several weeks? You have seen nothing yet.
  • Worldwide currency panic will set in paralyzing what’s left of the world economy, that means the ‘emerging markets’ stop dead too.
  • China has a revolution, or goes into military mode, which is worse.
  • A one world currency will be demanded and implemented, and it better be fast too since the cities only have 3 days food on average…(by the way I know for a fact that a one world currency can be implemented electronically and turned on in one hour, if they wanted!)

And so on. How will Asia fare? Horribly. Look, if you based your entire economic plan on Western consumerism, and that goes away, so does your plan. It’s dead. If Western consumerism goes away, then the entire foundation of the Asia macro economy instantly crashes and stops cold. Do you remember what happened that fateful last quarter of 2008, after the Lehman debacle, and the world banking system almost collapsed en masse? Exports from China and Japan for example collapsed over 30%!

Don’t think economic demand cannot stop on a dime, because we already had one very scary case of this last year.

So, all the pundits aside, Asia gets killed too economically. The big question is, can they successfully adapt to a new economic paradigm before they have their own revolutions? I do not think so.

It will be a dark time worldwide.

There is a lot more to say here. Needless to say that will be in our future newsletters for paid subscribers. If you noticed, we have not been publishing as many public articles, and one reason is that our paid people get a great deal more of this analysis than the public articles offer. Obviously. And we have quite a batch of recent newsletters out, that will most definitely intrigue you. They are my best stuff to date.

Lastly, I would like to point out that we have made some astounding predictions over the last two years about the USD and gold and other currencies. If you stop by our site, we’ll have a page showing you them (up hopefully today). We do not make many predictions like that, maybe 2 or 3 a year. But our last batch was quite on the money… you’ll see when you take a look.

By Christopher Laird PrudentSquirrel.com

Copyright © 2009 Christopher Laird

Chris Laird has been an Oracle systems engineer, database administrator, and math teacher. He has a BS in mathematics from UCLA and is a certified Oracle database administrator. He has been an avid follower of financial news since childhood. His father is Jere Laird, former business editor of KNX news AM 1070, Los Angeles (ret). He has grown up immersed in financial news. His Grandmother was Alice Widener, publisher of USA magazine in the 60's to 80's, a newsletter that covered many of the topics you find today at the preeminent gold sites. Chris is the publisher of the Prudent Squirrel newsletter, an economic and gold commentary.

Christopher Laird Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

FirstName
29 Dec 09, 20:23
dollar

Im sorry, I did not read anything of any substance in this article.


NewAmericaNow
29 Dec 09, 23:18
Surviving the Economic Apocalypse

See my video series on you tube starting with this one

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V3WZqeDUzrI

and read my blog at http://www.newamerica-now.blogspot.com for information that may help you to survive the coming economic collapse. It will happen in 2010 I fear not 2012. Good luck and God bless.


Realitycheck
05 Jan 10, 00:56
demise of the USD

The US super-ego is still alive and well "The demise of the USD will collapse the entire world economy and lead to collapsed polities, and then a massive world war."

Do you really think that if a tsunami were to wash over the US tonight killing the entire population that somehow the rest of the world will suddenly stop functioning? That people wouldnt catch the bus to work and Asia and Europe would no longer be able to survive?

I admit it would be interesting news, we would read about it in our morning paper, or watch it on news the next morning. True - facebook and twitter may be down but all in all thats not a bad thing.

Perhaps you have forgotten that the world functioned well for thousands of years with MORE peace and LESS world wars than before they created the US.

Sorry to bring you back to reality but if the US goes into financial collapse Europe and Asia will be more likely to open champagne than start a world war.


JD
10 Feb 10, 19:14
To RealityCheck:

To RealityCheck:

For one thing, the US IS NOT the reason why the world wars started. You can blame the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand, murdered by a marxist, and Germany for that...Wait, those are all European. The US only came in after we were begged to help the allies. And we DID NOT want to, in fact, after the war ended we kept neutral with the Axis and Allied powers. And we were forced into WWII by being bombed by the Japanese. So don't blame the US for that, blame the Europeans. And yes, you would be affected if the dollar collapses because we live in a global economy were the dollar is the major source of trade. When the dollar collapses we will just have to go with a new currency, and that will be interesting to see how that turns out.


Seth
15 Mar 10, 13:57
Zeitgeist is on our hands

A lot of skeptics have their facts wrong. I think the author of the article is right when he says the collapse of the USD will destroy the world economy. Then you have two options. Install a one world government with single currency (this has been a big prophecy and is super big dream for the people who run the world bank to have complete control). OR you can remove money entirely, and live in a resource based economy proposed in the Venus Project. I really hope the latter is the case. People would be much better off with no money whatsoever. Do animals need money to live peacefully with one another? Hell no. Technology should be used to help us, not fail every three months forcing us to buy new pieces, we should also move to more efficient means of fueling our cars and planes and homes!


Santa
27 May 10, 17:16
What does it mean for the dollar to collasp?

I am amazed about all the people that talk about the dollar collapse? What does this mean? Does it mean the one day everyone stops using it? Does it mean that we use other countries currency? If so, what country, since most are worst off? Does it mean that I need a gold coin to buy a cheeseburger? And, how does one have hyperinflation? How does the money actually get into the hands of buyers? Loans, welfare? How can a government, who can print money default on it's debts?


George Soros
12 Jan 11, 15:27
Usa is Doom

Obama is too slow we need a Super Extreme Liberal Progresive Gay


Glenn
12 Jan 11, 21:17
Alternative educational cartoon

While the intellectuals like to read. Sometimes a cartoon is more widely watched.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lZMjVACh978

Your readers might like or want to circulate.


prohodu
25 Feb 11, 02:15
dollar collapse

This is Inevitable, the dollar will decline slowly and by the end of 2011, 1 EURO will be aprox. 2$ … This is Inevitable..

And yes, Realitycheck is right ... the world will be more happy if the US will stop living laarge and start working harder. the americans all all afraid of dropping their standard of living ..as if they reallly desirve it!

you dont .. you actually nedd to go walk to your job and live in a 40 mp apartment ... that is the life to desirve..


City On a Shining Hill
15 Aug 11, 00:00
Slow Economy?

"Government is always the problem, and never the solution"-Ronald Reagan.

Our world is now interconnected financially, so when one nation has economic trouble, other nations are also affected, due to global trade and finance.

"In the last days people will run to and fro throughout the earth (worldwide travel and immigration/emmigration), and knowledge will increase (scientific inventions and discoveries in high tech).-Daniel 12:3.

We are living in those days. And, as morals and Christianity decline, so will governments which borrow to fund the welfare state become insolvent, and poverty to nations result.

"The problem with socialism, despite its best intentions to redistribute a nation's wealth to help those without, ends up doing the opposite, running out of the taxes and investments to fund it"-

Margaret Thatcher.

Some prophets predictions, sadly, do come true!


Thomas
29 Sep 11, 17:48
things are little changing

It is difficult to know exactly how all is going to pan out. But for sure there are signs / and signs of evidences that various (if not all) governments and central banks are using their resources to prepare.

Hugo Chavez has demanded most of Gold to be held physically in his own Venezuelan safes. Hugo is also positioning himself with the allies in Asia (China etc...).

The USA Federal Reserve recently shifted long-term/short-term bonds to free up over 440 bn$ which created a fake / artificial gold and silver price suppression. At the same time China had a trigger-order for gold at $ 1,1715 or lower on standby. China also is the first market that is having gold bars vending machines in place and it announces that it wants to be the new Gold price hub starting in 2012.

China has also put an export moratorium on Rare Earth metals so it can corner the market in the energy battery and alternative energy sector. It is a global treaty violation but so far they have suggested that they don't care. In addition, china is also building more aircraft carriers. (This does not mean that china is aggressive. It just means at the very least that they are preparing)

So, while this is not all that we are finding out, we are certainly aware now that masses of able countries are preparing and strengthening themselves in matter of capital investments and precious metal accumulations.

Why? If everything if fine, why are we people being told that everything is fine while people in high places stock up?


Omen
25 Nov 11, 03:51
You guessed wrong.

Guess you were wrong, is almost 2012 and the dollar is pretty strong.I think that the dollar will get even mo powerful.


TEL
27 Nov 11, 23:43
Dollar isnt strong

USDX has been dropping foe awhile. The Euro troubles may bring the dollar up temporarily until investors look at the US debt and realize its as bad as any EU country, then the dollar decline will resume.


nick
22 Dec 11, 22:55
dollar will indeed collapse

dollar is only "strong" right now because of Greece, Portugal, and Spain. After that mess concludes America's debt will be the issue. And no one will make the tough decisions to get us out of this mess. So America will default on its debt. there is no answer, no theory, no way possible to get out of this mess. Ok cept maybe give Alaska away, raise taxes, and spend a quarter of what they do now. do the math. simple arithmetic. no way out.


Mani
25 Dec 11, 14:04
USD

The USD will continue to climb into 2012. Deflation is the name of the game in Keynesian economics.


David
28 Dec 11, 00:32
dollar demise

I am not an expert on this, but the dollar has to crash. we are printing trillions of them. Obama is going to ask congress when it comes back to again raise the debt ceiling. what more does anyone need to know. get stored up on food and water because we will be singing "The day the dollar died" if this happend and even somesomthing like losing power grid, if in winter time,90% of the population will freeze to death in urban areas and up to 40 % in rural areas. good luck with that.


Nadeem_Walayat
28 Dec 11, 08:54
Dollar crash

Not necessarily so, if all currencies collapse together.

Best

NW


Name:
02 Mar 12, 14:05
money printing

The United States doesn't print nearly as much money in reality as in your fantasy world. The dollar can only get stronger because of the relationship between inflation and necessity.


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