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UK General Election to be Decided by 20% of Voters in Marginal Constituencies

ElectionOracle / UK General Election Apr 10, 2010 - 01:49 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

The mainstream press obsess over opinion polls to predominantly determine the average swing from Labour to Conservative (currently 5%). However these general opinion polls are pretty much useless as 80% of voters will have no say in the outcome of the election which will be decided in just 120 marginal seats out of the total of 650.


Therefore to obtain an accurate current state of the parties would be to purely focus on polling voters from within the key marginal seats to determine which way they will actually swing and from what polls have been conducted in marginal's tend to show a wide range of swings from +3% To Labour to +15% to the Conservative Party.

The politicians obviously recognise this which is why resources have been plowed into the 120 marginal's with little effort being put into communicating with the voters of the other 530 seats.

An example of the focus on marginal constituencies is Brentford and Isleworth which is currently held by Labour with a majority of 4,411 votes, where a recent YouGov poll shows a swing from Labour to Conservative of 6.5% against a minimum swing requirement of 4.2% for the Conservatives to win the seat.

So as is usually the case, most voters will be ignored by the politicians as they woo the electorate of marginal constituencies with promises of new hospitals, health centres, schools, nurseries and more over the coming 4 weeks, which goes a long way to explain why government spending and services results in aberrations such as the NHS post code lottery which usually penalise Labour constituencies with strong majorities that repeated return jobs for life MP's.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-10 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis specialises on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and the housing market and he is the author of the NEW Inflation Mega-Trend ebook that can be downloaded for Free. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 500 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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