Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Best Cash ISA Savings Account for Soaring UK Inflation - February 2018 - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold Price Forecast 2018 - February Update - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Bitcoin Crypto Currencies Crash 2018, Are We Near the Bottom? - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Trump Bubble Bursts, Stock Market Panic Dow 1175 Point Crash Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Corrects, Bitcoin Markets Crash, Whilst Stocks Plunge - Nadeem_Walayat
6.US Treasury Bonds: Fuse to Light the Bonfire - Jim_Willie_CB
7.Dow Falls 666 Points As Cryptocurrencies Crash And Krugman Emerges From His Van - Jeff_Berwick
8.Stock Market Roller Coaster Crash Ride Down to Dow Forecast 23,000 - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Trading the Shadows - Oil, Dollar, Stocks, Gold Trend Analysis - B.R. Hollister
10.Stock Market Analysis: Baying for Blood - Abalgorithm
Last 7 days
An Inflation Indicator to Watch, Part 1 - 18th Feb 18
Get on Top Of Debt Before It Gets on Top of You - 18th Feb 18
Will the Stock Market Make a Double Bottom? - 18th Feb 18
5 Reasons Why Commodities Are the Investment Place to be in 2018 - 18th Feb 18
1 Week Later, Stock, Bond Market Risk Remains ‘On’ as 2 of 3 Amigos Ride On - 17th Feb 18
Crude Oil Prices: A Case of Dueling Narratives? - 17th Feb 18
Free 1000 Youtube Subscribers Services - YTpals, Subpals, SubmeNow Test - 17th Feb 18
How to Trade as We Near March Stock Market Top - 16th Feb 18
Bitcoin as Poison - 16th Feb 18
GDX Gold ETF Weathers Stock Market Selloff - 16th Feb 18
Casino Statistics and Demographics - 16th Feb 18
IS Today Thee Stock Market Turn Day? - 16th Feb 18
Huge SMIGGLE Shopping HAUL, Pencil Cases, Drinks Bottles, Back Packs, Toys.... - 16th Feb 18
Tesla Cash Keeps Burning at $320 a Share - 15th Feb 18
Big Conflict Ahead in the Financial Markets - 15th Feb 18
Stocks Extend Rally Off Friday's Low, But Short-Term Exhaustion Near - 15th Feb 18
Stock Market Out on a Limb... - 15th Feb 18
Things Only a True Friend Would Say About Gold - 14th Feb 18
Global Debt Crisis II Cometh - 14th Feb 18
Understanding Crude Oil Behavior - 14th Feb 18
Stock Market is Getting Scary... - 14th Feb 18
Stock Market - This Time is Different. Really?! - 13th Feb 18
Gold and Silver Long-term Buy, Short-term Sell Signal - 13th Feb 18
SPX Futures Are Sliding... - 13th Feb 18
Stock Market Topping Process Begins. The Bubble Finds its Pin - 13th Feb 18
Math Behind the Stock Market Crash and What’s Next – PART2 - 13th Feb 18
Gold Stocks Groundhog Week - 13th Feb 18
Platinum Looks Poised for Surprising Gains This Year - 12th Feb 18
Friday's S&P 500 Stock Market Bounce To Continue, But Selling May Resume - 12th Feb 18
The Inflation Trade and Bond Yields Rising Result in Equities Correction - 12th Feb 18
February 2018 Stock Market Crisis – What Next? - 12th Feb 18
How To Profit From The Bitcoin Bloodbath - 12th Feb 18
The Philippine Economic Dream Could Be Within the Reach  - 12th Feb 18
Is the Stock Market Correction Over? - 12th Feb 18
What Does the Stock Market Decline Mean for Gold - 12th Feb 18
Addicted to SMIGGLE Mega Review, Pencil Cases, Stationary, Back Packs, Drinking Bottles, Toys... - 12th Feb 18
Best Cash ISA Savings Account for Soaring UK Inflation - February 2018 - 11th Feb 18
The Fed’s Impossible Choice, In Three Charts - 11th Feb 18
US Stock Market, Gold, Silver and the Macro Backdrop - 11th Feb 18
After Two weeks of Stock Market Decline, People Are Ssking, “Are We There Yet?” - 11th Feb 18
How to Grow Tomatoes From Seeds, Homegrown Organic Money Saving Gardening - 11th Feb 18
Youtube KILLS ALL Small Channels with New DeMonetization Rules - 11th Feb 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Urgent Stock Market Message

Stocks Stealth Bull Market Touches Dow 11,000

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010 Apr 11, 2010 - 01:18 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhilst the blogosfear still asks the question whether this is a bear market rally or a new bull market, the stocks stealth bull market achieves a new milestone right at the end of the week by touching the Dow 11k target as indicated in last weeks brief update as the weeks most probable trend outcome.


Nothing has changed in the blogosFear as the SAME issues both fundamental and technical are laboriously put forward EVERY month for the past 12 months for reasons why the rally's end is always imminent, only succeeding in frightening all but the smart money from monetizing on one of the greatest bull runs in history -

1. Fundamentals, - Unsustainable debt fuelled economic stimulus that will soon evaporate.

The stimulus and debt are real issues, but instead of signaling DEFLATION they are signaling INFLATION with the primary driving force for economic activity being REFLATION of asset prices.

15 Mar 2009 - Stealth Bull Market Follows Stocks Bear Market Bottom at Dow 6,470

The markets move ahead of the economy, whilst I don't profess to know the EXACT reasons of why they will move AHEAD until that becomes apparent AFTER the market has already moved, however I do have some reasoning in that INFLATION, Zero Interest Rates (Forcing savers / financial institutions to take risks) Quantitative Easing (money printing), and HUGE Fiscal stimulus packages that are laying all of the ground work for the next bubble regardless of how bad things appear as any outcome that prevents another Great Depression will be seen as bullish! i.e. even a low growth high inflation stagflationary environment WILL be seen as a positive outcome against the present day data that points to a collapse of global demand on a scale not seen since the Great Depression. The governments HAVE learned the lessons from the Great Depression and WILL succeed in inflating the asset prices and ignite the next perhaps even bigger bubble, meanwhile the stealth bull market will continue which by the time everyone realizes what's going on stocks will already by up by perhaps more than 50% from the low.

2. Technicals - There is no investor buying because volume is not there during the rallies.

YES, Volume is NOT there on the rally's precisely BECAUSE we are in a stocks stealth bull market that is STILL only being bought by the smart money. In the analysis in my Inflation Mega-trend Ebook (Download now for FREE) I expect this trend to persist for MANY YEARS.

15 Mar 2009 - Stealth Bull Market Follows Stocks Bear Market Bottom at Dow 6,470

Now watch ! How this STEALTH bull market will consistently be recognised as just a bear market rally to sell into and NOT to accumulate into. All the way from 6,600 to 7,600 to 8,600 and even beyond, the move will be missed by most as consistently bearish rhetoric and data will ensure only the smart money accumulates, for the small investor has now become Conditioned to the Bear Market Rallies of 20% and subsequently plunges to fresh lows. Many, many months from now, with stocks up 30%, investors will then WAIT for THE BIG CORRECTION, THE RE-TEST to buy into the apparent BULL Market , Well these investors will still be waiting as stocks pass the 50% advance mark, AGAIN only those that will have profited are the hedge funds and fund investors (Smart Money) WHO HAVE BEEN ACCUMULATING , as I elaborate upon next.

The bottom line for investing is monetize on trends, not to get psychologically hooked by perma attitudes (bull or bear). The facts are SIMPLE in that the stealth bull market turned into an ACTUAL bull market at Dow 7,765. Everything else written since to suggest that this is a bear market rally who's end is always imminent is down to psychological blocks which is a manifestation of lack of actual trading experience.

Last In depth Analysis - 23 Mar 2010 - Stocks Stealth Bull Market Trend Forecast Into May 2010

The sum of existing analysis upto the end of January had concluded in the Dow targeting a trend during 2010 to above 12,000, targeting 12,500 by late 2010, to be preceded by a volatile sideways trend during the first half of the year.

As we approach the end of Q1 the trend is showing relative strength against this forecast, the key manifestation of this is that the stock market did NOT retest the February low as I was expecting to take place i.e. to generate a double bottom pattern. This coupled with current analysis (above) suggests we are going to get what cycle analysts would know as 'left translation' in the projected trend, which implies we get the rally to 12,000 far earlier i.e. during Q2, rather than Q3 to Q4. Which on face value also suggests a weaker trend later in the year, but more on that in May.

SELL SIGNAL COMING !

The above analysis continues to resolve towards a Major SELL SIGNAL by Mid May 2010 Dow £12k target, which will probably be just about the time when the perma-bears have thrown in the towel and gone long! How far the correction will run is not quantifiable at this point in time. But to ensure you stay several weeks if not months AHEAD of the curve subscribe to my always FREE Newsletter!

The Real Secret of Successful Trading?

Not Technical Analysis, Not the latest grand puba theory but Money Management and Practice of Entering and Existing REAL positions, the actual mechanism for which is NOT important, rather it SHOULD be SIMPLE. Forecasting requires a LOT of analysis, plenty of layers to peel away, Trading requires virtually NONE as the trends are self evident in the breakdown of ones portfolio that is subject to money management rules where the bulk of your open positions will be in the RIGHT direction. Most traders go from analysis to positions, in actual fact it should be the other way around - From open positions TO analysis (if you need to).

I will cover the "real secrets of successful trading" in future articles and eventually in detail in a book, (at least a year away).

UK General Election, Most Voters Need Not Bother to Vote

The Politicians have entered into a frenzy of activity which is illustrated by the high frequency of bare faced lies that spout from every orifice. One good development from the mainstream TV news channels are the fact and reality checks that attempt analyse the truth behind the most repeated lies of the day.

Voting is a waste of time for most of the British electorate as the election outcome will be decided in the marginal constituencies which at 120 are less than 20% of the 650 seats, which is why the parties are deploying resources into these constituencies, promising new health centres and increased local services whilst the other 80% of the population in non marginal constituencies have to make do with what's termed as the "postcode lottery" garbage third world level health and public services as the sitting jobs for life MP's only appear for the occasional photo opportunity to include in their next leaflet knowing full well that mainly gullible labour and conservative voters in the constituencies will turn out in their thousands to vote them back in regardless of performance.

Britain needs a political revolution that turns EVERY constituency into a marginal constituency, that is the only way EVERY MP will pay any attention to their constituents.

Source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article18559.html

Your index trading analyst.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-10 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved

Featured Analysis of the Week

Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of the Week :

1. Gold, Time to Get Excited Again?

By: Merv_Burak

Is it time to get all excited again?  Not yet.  Gold has had a couple of good days but has yet not breached any major resistance levels so the move may only be temporary within a basic lateral trend.  Let’s wait for better validation of the up move.

Read Article

2. The Global Economic Crisis: Riots, Rebellion and Revolution

By: Andrew_G_Marshall

As nations of the world are thrown into a debt crisis, the likes of which have never been seen before, harsh fiscal ‘austerity’ measures will be undertaken in a flawed attempt to service the debts. The result will be the elimination of the middle class. When the middle class is absorbed into the labour class – the lower class – and lose their social, political, and economic foundations, they will riot, rebel, and revolt.

Read Article

3. Is This a Economic Recovery?

By: John_Mauldin

Last week I wrote a letter to my kids trying to explain what Greece meant to them. Reader Ken V wrote: "Great letter, John. Now you should write one for the adults who are retired and don't have the long future your kids do. If the US becomes Greece, things won't recover in time for much of the rest of my life to be more than one grim, dreary period. What is your investment advice for those with roughly a 10-year horizon, not 30-40-50 years?"

Read Article

The U.S. Econonomies Future

4. Protect Your Wealth From Exploding Debt as States Implode

By: Sean_Brodrick

The world is breathing a sigh of relief now that the financial crisis in Greece is “over.” Yeah, right. Greece’s financial misdeeds — the country has racked up a lot of debts it can’t pay — will probably come back to haunt Europe, and soon.

Read Article

5. Economic Recovery Follows Stealth Stocks Bull Market, BlogosFear Cry's Manipulated Markets

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The economic recovery continues to manifest itself in the real world as this week both UK GDP was revised higher to 0.4% for Q4 2009 and Fridays U.S. Jobs reported 162k of new Jobs added to the economy, the economic recovery has long since been led by the stocks stealth bull market that has risen by more than 70% since the March 2009 low.

Read Article

6. Metals Market Manipulation Update: Are The Metals markets Rigged? Do Fish Swim

By: Jim_Richter

During the time I have been writing this newsletter, I have frequently mentioned the blatant manipulation of the gold and silver markets. For background on this issue, please see my article in the May, 2009, issue. The manipulation of gold has been accomplished primarily by central banks selling or leasing gold into the markets so as to artificially depress the prices. The bullion banks (e.g., JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and others) have also helped suppress the prices of gold and silver by selling them short on the commodities exchanges.

Read Article

The Most Important Report of 2010

7. Critical Juncture for U.S. Housing Market, Gold

By: Clif_Droke

Let's turn our attention to real estate for a minute. The thorn in the economic recovery's side, after all, has been the mortgage market. Investors are worried that with so many mortgage holders under water, the hoped for economic reversal has no chance to stick. Debt relief has been a paramount concern since the credit crisis began, and rightfully so. Yet it has been elusive. Lenders have stubbornly held off in offering anything in the way of substantial relief to the legions of debtors who could use a break.

Read Article

8. The Global Bubble Has Reflated

By: Mike_Stathis

Back in the Spring of 2009, the World Bank forecast that the global economy would contract by 1.7% that year; the first global contraction since the Great Depression (yet another clear indicator we are in a depression).

Read Article

Subscription

How to Subscribe

Click here to register and get our FREE Newsletter

About: The Market Oracle Newsletter

The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis Newsletter and online publication.
(c) 2005-2010 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - The Market Oracle asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team. Any and all information provided within this newsletter is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided in this newsletter. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. ( Market Oracle Ltd , Registered in England and Wales, Company no 6387055. Registered office: 226 Darnall Road, Sheffield S9 5AN , UK )


© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

Ajay
15 Apr 10, 09:22
Dow projection

Hi Nadeem,

Thanks a lot for your excellent articles about the economy and the stock market. In your previous article, you had mentioned that you were expecting a brief sell-off and a retest of 10600 on the Dow. Is that projection still valid?

Would appreciate if you could also add targets for other major US indices.

Thanks again for everything,

Ajay


Nadeem_Walayat
15 Apr 10, 11:06
Stocks Signals

Hi

The markets not giving any sell aignals for a short-term reaction to occur.

For instance in the 4th April aritcle / newsletter the short-term triggers were -

Short-term Trading- The short-term trend STILL remains UP, Last Close 10,927, BUY Trigger 10,957 Targets 11k resistance, nearest SELL Signal is at Dow 10830, that targets 10,550. Fridays Positive Jobs report implies that the Buy trigger looks set to be taken out Monday therefore targeting Dow 11k as most probable early week trend.

As expected we got the buy but NO SELL.

I'll update saturday for triggers for the followign week, but the trend remains up until there is an actial sell signal, note that there has been NO SELL SIGNAL since FEBRUARY ! Which is the longest time period that I can remember for the Dow to run higher without reacting.


Ajay
18 Apr 10, 07:24
Dow Forecast

Hi Nadeem,

It looks like the major indices will sell-off this week. Please do provide us with your latest updates as and when that happpens.

Thanks,

Ajay


Nadeem_Walayat
18 Apr 10, 13:09
Dow Take

Hi

I'll be including my dow take in tonights newsletter

Best

NW


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules