Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
PAYPAL WARNING - Your Stimulus Funds Are at Risk of Being Frozen for 6 Months! - 5th Apr 20
Stocks Hanging By the Fingernails? - 5th Apr 20
US Federal Budget Deficits: To $30 Trillion and Beyond - 5th Apr 20
The Lucrative Profitability Of A Move To Negative Interest Rates - Pandemic Edition - 5th Apr 20
Visa Denials: How to avoid it and what to do if your Visa is denied? - 5th Apr 20 - Uday Tank
WARNING PAYPAL Making a Grab for US $1200 Stimulus Payments - 4th Apr 20
US COVID-19 Death Toll Higher Than China’s Now. Will Gold Rally? - 4th Apr 20
Concerned That Asia Could Blow A Hole In Future Economic Recovery - 4th Apr 20
Bracing for Europe’s Coronavirus Contractionand Debt Crisis - 4th Apr 20
Stocks: When Grass Looks Greener on the Other Side of the ... Pond - 3rd Apr 20
How the C-Factor Could Decimate 2020 Global Gold and Silver Production - 3rd Apr 20
US Between Scylla and Charybdis Covid-19 - 3rd Apr 20
Covid19 What's Your Risk of Death Analysis by Age, Gender, Comorbidities and BMI - 3rd Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections & Deaths Trend Trajectory - How Bad Will it Get? - 2nd Apr 20
Silver Looks Bearish Short to Medium Term - 2nd Apr 20
Mickey Fulp: 'Never Let a Good Crisis Go to Waste' - 2nd Apr 20
Stock Market Selloff Structure Explained – Fibonacci On Deck - 2nd Apr 20
COVID-19 FINANCIAL LOCKDOWN: Can PAYPAL Be Trusted to Handle US $1200 Stimulus Payments? - 2nd Apr 20
Day in the Life of Coronavirus LOCKDOWN - Sheffield, UK - 2nd Apr 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Trajectory - Deviation Against Forecast - 1st Apr 20
Huge Unemployment Is Coming. Will It Push Gold Prices Up? - 1st Apr 20
Gold Powerful 2008 Lessons That Apply Today - 1st Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video - 1st Apr 20
From Global Virus Acceleration to Global Debt Explosion - 1st Apr 20
UK Supermarkets Coronavirus Panic Buying Before Lock Down - Tesco Empty Shelves - 1st Apr 20
Gold From a Failed Breakout to a Failed Breakdown - 1st Apr 20
P FOR PANDEMIC - 1st Apr 20
The Past Stock Market Week Was More Important Than You May Understand - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus - No, You Do Not Hear the Fat Lady Warming Up - 31st Mar 20
Life, Religions, Business, Globalization & Information Technology In The Post-Corona Pandemics Age - 31st Mar 20
Three Charts Every Stock Market Trader and Investor Must See - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast - Video - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Dow Stocks Bear Market Into End April 2020 Trend Forecast - 31st Mar 20
Is it better to have a loan or credit card debt when applying for a mortgage? - 31st Mar 20
US and UK Coronavirus Trend Trajectories vs Bear Market and AI Stocks Sector - 30th Mar 20
Are Gold and Silver Mirroring 1999 to 2011 Again? - 30th Mar 20
Stock Market Next Cycle Low 7th April - 30th Mar 20
United States Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Forecasts Into End April 2020 - 29th Mar 20
Some Positives in a Virus Wracked World - 29th Mar 20
Expert Tips to Save on Your Business’s Office Supply Purchases - 29th Mar 20
An Investment in Life - 29th Mar 20
Sheffield Coronavirus Pandemic Infections and Deaths Forecast - 29th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video - 28th Mar 20
The Great Coronavirus Depression - Things Are Going to Change. Here’s What We Should Do - 28th Mar 20
One of the Biggest Stock Market Short Covering Rallies in History May Be Imminent - 28th Mar 20
The Fed, the Coronavirus and Investing - 28th Mar 20
Women’s Fashion Trends in the UK this 2020 - 28th Mar 20
The Last Minsky Financial Snowflake Has Fallen – What Now? - 28th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast Into End April 2020 - 28th Mar 20
DJIA Coronavirus Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 27th Mar 20
US and UK Case Fatality Rate Forecast for End April 2020 - 27th Mar 20
US Stock Market Upswing Meets Employment Data - 27th Mar 20
Will the Fed Going Nuclear Help the Economy and Gold? - 27th Mar 20
What you need to know about the impact of inflation - 27th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Herd Immunity, Flattening the Curve and Case Fatality Rate Analysis - 27th Mar 20
NHS Hospitals Before Coronavirus Tsunami Hits (Sheffield), STAY INDOORS FINAL WARNING! - 27th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Curve, Stock Market Crash, and Mortgage Massacre - 27th Mar 20
Finding an Expert Car Accident Lawyer - 27th Mar 20
We Are Facing a Depression, Not a Recession - 26th Mar 20
US Housing Real Estate Market Concern - 26th Mar 20
Covid-19 Pandemic Affecting Bitcoin - 26th Mar 20
Italy Coronavirus Case Fataility Rate and Infections Trend Analysis - 26th Mar 20
Why Is Online Gambling Becoming More Popular? - 26th Mar 20
Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock Markets CRASH! - 26th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Herd Immunity and Flattening the Curve - 25th Mar 20
Coronavirus Lesson #1 for Investors: Beware Predictions of Stock Market Bottoms - 25th Mar 20
CoronaVirus Stock Market Trend Implications - 25th Mar 20
Pandemonium in Precious Metals Market as Fear Gives Way to Command Economy - 25th Mar 20
Pandemics and Gold - 25th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus Hotspots - Cities with Highest Risks of Getting Infected - 25th Mar 20
WARNING US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Going Ballistic! - 24th Mar 20
Coronavirus Crisis - Weeks Where Decades Happen - 24th Mar 20
Industry Trends: Online Casinos & Online Slots Game Market Analysis - 24th Mar 20
Five Amazingly High-Tech Products Just on the Market that You Should Check Out - 24th Mar 20
UK Coronavirus WARNING - Infections Trend Trajectory Worse than Italy - 24th Mar 20
Rick Rule: 'A Different Phrase for Stocks Bear Market Is Sale' - 24th Mar 20
Stock Market Minor Cycle Bounce - 24th Mar 20
Gold’s century - While stocks dominated headlines, gold quietly performed - 24th Mar 20
Big Tech Is Now On The Offensive Against The Coronavirus - 24th Mar 20
Socialism at Its Finest after Fed’s Bazooka Fails - 24th Mar 20
Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock and Financial Markets CRASH! - 23rd Mar 20
Will Trump’s Free Cash Help the Economy and Gold Market? - 23rd Mar 20
Coronavirus Clarifies Priorities - 23rd Mar 20
Could the Coronavirus Cause the Next ‘Arab Spring’? - 23rd Mar 20
Concerned About The US Real Estate Market? Us Too! - 23rd Mar 20
Gold Stocks Peak Bleak? - 22nd Mar 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-bear-market-2020-analysis

Stocks Stealth Bull Market Touches Dow 11,000

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010 Apr 11, 2010 - 01:18 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhilst the blogosfear still asks the question whether this is a bear market rally or a new bull market, the stocks stealth bull market achieves a new milestone right at the end of the week by touching the Dow 11k target as indicated in last weeks brief update as the weeks most probable trend outcome.


Nothing has changed in the blogosFear as the SAME issues both fundamental and technical are laboriously put forward EVERY month for the past 12 months for reasons why the rally's end is always imminent, only succeeding in frightening all but the smart money from monetizing on one of the greatest bull runs in history -

1. Fundamentals, - Unsustainable debt fuelled economic stimulus that will soon evaporate.

The stimulus and debt are real issues, but instead of signaling DEFLATION they are signaling INFLATION with the primary driving force for economic activity being REFLATION of asset prices.

15 Mar 2009 - Stealth Bull Market Follows Stocks Bear Market Bottom at Dow 6,470

The markets move ahead of the economy, whilst I don't profess to know the EXACT reasons of why they will move AHEAD until that becomes apparent AFTER the market has already moved, however I do have some reasoning in that INFLATION, Zero Interest Rates (Forcing savers / financial institutions to take risks) Quantitative Easing (money printing), and HUGE Fiscal stimulus packages that are laying all of the ground work for the next bubble regardless of how bad things appear as any outcome that prevents another Great Depression will be seen as bullish! i.e. even a low growth high inflation stagflationary environment WILL be seen as a positive outcome against the present day data that points to a collapse of global demand on a scale not seen since the Great Depression. The governments HAVE learned the lessons from the Great Depression and WILL succeed in inflating the asset prices and ignite the next perhaps even bigger bubble, meanwhile the stealth bull market will continue which by the time everyone realizes what's going on stocks will already by up by perhaps more than 50% from the low.

2. Technicals - There is no investor buying because volume is not there during the rallies.

YES, Volume is NOT there on the rally's precisely BECAUSE we are in a stocks stealth bull market that is STILL only being bought by the smart money. In the analysis in my Inflation Mega-trend Ebook (Download now for FREE) I expect this trend to persist for MANY YEARS.

15 Mar 2009 - Stealth Bull Market Follows Stocks Bear Market Bottom at Dow 6,470

Now watch ! How this STEALTH bull market will consistently be recognised as just a bear market rally to sell into and NOT to accumulate into. All the way from 6,600 to 7,600 to 8,600 and even beyond, the move will be missed by most as consistently bearish rhetoric and data will ensure only the smart money accumulates, for the small investor has now become Conditioned to the Bear Market Rallies of 20% and subsequently plunges to fresh lows. Many, many months from now, with stocks up 30%, investors will then WAIT for THE BIG CORRECTION, THE RE-TEST to buy into the apparent BULL Market , Well these investors will still be waiting as stocks pass the 50% advance mark, AGAIN only those that will have profited are the hedge funds and fund investors (Smart Money) WHO HAVE BEEN ACCUMULATING , as I elaborate upon next.

The bottom line for investing is monetize on trends, not to get psychologically hooked by perma attitudes (bull or bear). The facts are SIMPLE in that the stealth bull market turned into an ACTUAL bull market at Dow 7,765. Everything else written since to suggest that this is a bear market rally who's end is always imminent is down to psychological blocks which is a manifestation of lack of actual trading experience.

Last In depth Analysis - 23 Mar 2010 - Stocks Stealth Bull Market Trend Forecast Into May 2010

The sum of existing analysis upto the end of January had concluded in the Dow targeting a trend during 2010 to above 12,000, targeting 12,500 by late 2010, to be preceded by a volatile sideways trend during the first half of the year.

As we approach the end of Q1 the trend is showing relative strength against this forecast, the key manifestation of this is that the stock market did NOT retest the February low as I was expecting to take place i.e. to generate a double bottom pattern. This coupled with current analysis (above) suggests we are going to get what cycle analysts would know as 'left translation' in the projected trend, which implies we get the rally to 12,000 far earlier i.e. during Q2, rather than Q3 to Q4. Which on face value also suggests a weaker trend later in the year, but more on that in May.

SELL SIGNAL COMING !

The above analysis continues to resolve towards a Major SELL SIGNAL by Mid May 2010 Dow £12k target, which will probably be just about the time when the perma-bears have thrown in the towel and gone long! How far the correction will run is not quantifiable at this point in time. But to ensure you stay several weeks if not months AHEAD of the curve subscribe to my always FREE Newsletter!

The Real Secret of Successful Trading?

Not Technical Analysis, Not the latest grand puba theory but Money Management and Practice of Entering and Existing REAL positions, the actual mechanism for which is NOT important, rather it SHOULD be SIMPLE. Forecasting requires a LOT of analysis, plenty of layers to peel away, Trading requires virtually NONE as the trends are self evident in the breakdown of ones portfolio that is subject to money management rules where the bulk of your open positions will be in the RIGHT direction. Most traders go from analysis to positions, in actual fact it should be the other way around - From open positions TO analysis (if you need to).

I will cover the "real secrets of successful trading" in future articles and eventually in detail in a book, (at least a year away).

UK General Election, Most Voters Need Not Bother to Vote

The Politicians have entered into a frenzy of activity which is illustrated by the high frequency of bare faced lies that spout from every orifice. One good development from the mainstream TV news channels are the fact and reality checks that attempt analyse the truth behind the most repeated lies of the day.

Voting is a waste of time for most of the British electorate as the election outcome will be decided in the marginal constituencies which at 120 are less than 20% of the 650 seats, which is why the parties are deploying resources into these constituencies, promising new health centres and increased local services whilst the other 80% of the population in non marginal constituencies have to make do with what's termed as the "postcode lottery" garbage third world level health and public services as the sitting jobs for life MP's only appear for the occasional photo opportunity to include in their next leaflet knowing full well that mainly gullible labour and conservative voters in the constituencies will turn out in their thousands to vote them back in regardless of performance.

Britain needs a political revolution that turns EVERY constituency into a marginal constituency, that is the only way EVERY MP will pay any attention to their constituents.

Source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article18559.html

Your index trading analyst.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-10 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved

Featured Analysis of the Week

Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of the Week :

1. Gold, Time to Get Excited Again?

By: Merv_Burak

Is it time to get all excited again?  Not yet.  Gold has had a couple of good days but has yet not breached any major resistance levels so the move may only be temporary within a basic lateral trend.  Let’s wait for better validation of the up move.

Read Article

2. The Global Economic Crisis: Riots, Rebellion and Revolution

By: Andrew_G_Marshall

As nations of the world are thrown into a debt crisis, the likes of which have never been seen before, harsh fiscal ‘austerity’ measures will be undertaken in a flawed attempt to service the debts. The result will be the elimination of the middle class. When the middle class is absorbed into the labour class – the lower class – and lose their social, political, and economic foundations, they will riot, rebel, and revolt.

Read Article

3. Is This a Economic Recovery?

By: John_Mauldin

Last week I wrote a letter to my kids trying to explain what Greece meant to them. Reader Ken V wrote: "Great letter, John. Now you should write one for the adults who are retired and don't have the long future your kids do. If the US becomes Greece, things won't recover in time for much of the rest of my life to be more than one grim, dreary period. What is your investment advice for those with roughly a 10-year horizon, not 30-40-50 years?"

Read Article

The U.S. Econonomies Future

4. Protect Your Wealth From Exploding Debt as States Implode

By: Sean_Brodrick

The world is breathing a sigh of relief now that the financial crisis in Greece is “over.” Yeah, right. Greece’s financial misdeeds — the country has racked up a lot of debts it can’t pay — will probably come back to haunt Europe, and soon.

Read Article

5. Economic Recovery Follows Stealth Stocks Bull Market, BlogosFear Cry's Manipulated Markets

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The economic recovery continues to manifest itself in the real world as this week both UK GDP was revised higher to 0.4% for Q4 2009 and Fridays U.S. Jobs reported 162k of new Jobs added to the economy, the economic recovery has long since been led by the stocks stealth bull market that has risen by more than 70% since the March 2009 low.

Read Article

6. Metals Market Manipulation Update: Are The Metals markets Rigged? Do Fish Swim

By: Jim_Richter

During the time I have been writing this newsletter, I have frequently mentioned the blatant manipulation of the gold and silver markets. For background on this issue, please see my article in the May, 2009, issue. The manipulation of gold has been accomplished primarily by central banks selling or leasing gold into the markets so as to artificially depress the prices. The bullion banks (e.g., JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and others) have also helped suppress the prices of gold and silver by selling them short on the commodities exchanges.

Read Article

The Most Important Report of 2010

7. Critical Juncture for U.S. Housing Market, Gold

By: Clif_Droke

Let's turn our attention to real estate for a minute. The thorn in the economic recovery's side, after all, has been the mortgage market. Investors are worried that with so many mortgage holders under water, the hoped for economic reversal has no chance to stick. Debt relief has been a paramount concern since the credit crisis began, and rightfully so. Yet it has been elusive. Lenders have stubbornly held off in offering anything in the way of substantial relief to the legions of debtors who could use a break.

Read Article

8. The Global Bubble Has Reflated

By: Mike_Stathis

Back in the Spring of 2009, the World Bank forecast that the global economy would contract by 1.7% that year; the first global contraction since the Great Depression (yet another clear indicator we are in a depression).

Read Article

Subscription

How to Subscribe

Click here to register and get our FREE Newsletter

About: The Market Oracle Newsletter

The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis Newsletter and online publication.
(c) 2005-2010 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - The Market Oracle asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team. Any and all information provided within this newsletter is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided in this newsletter. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. ( Market Oracle Ltd , Registered in England and Wales, Company no 6387055. Registered office: 226 Darnall Road, Sheffield S9 5AN , UK )


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

Ajay
15 Apr 10, 09:22
Dow projection

Hi Nadeem,

Thanks a lot for your excellent articles about the economy and the stock market. In your previous article, you had mentioned that you were expecting a brief sell-off and a retest of 10600 on the Dow. Is that projection still valid?

Would appreciate if you could also add targets for other major US indices.

Thanks again for everything,

Ajay


Nadeem_Walayat
15 Apr 10, 11:06
Stocks Signals

Hi

The markets not giving any sell aignals for a short-term reaction to occur.

For instance in the 4th April aritcle / newsletter the short-term triggers were -

Short-term Trading- The short-term trend STILL remains UP, Last Close 10,927, BUY Trigger 10,957 Targets 11k resistance, nearest SELL Signal is at Dow 10830, that targets 10,550. Fridays Positive Jobs report implies that the Buy trigger looks set to be taken out Monday therefore targeting Dow 11k as most probable early week trend.

As expected we got the buy but NO SELL.

I'll update saturday for triggers for the followign week, but the trend remains up until there is an actial sell signal, note that there has been NO SELL SIGNAL since FEBRUARY ! Which is the longest time period that I can remember for the Dow to run higher without reacting.


Ajay
18 Apr 10, 07:24
Dow Forecast

Hi Nadeem,

It looks like the major indices will sell-off this week. Please do provide us with your latest updates as and when that happpens.

Thanks,

Ajay


Nadeem_Walayat
18 Apr 10, 13:09
Dow Take

Hi

I'll be including my dow take in tonights newsletter

Best

NW


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules