Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
The Gold Stocks Correction and What Lays Ahead - 19th Oct 19
Gold during Global Monetary Ease - 19th Oct 19
US Treasury Bonds Pause Near Resistance Before The Next Rally - 18th Oct 19
The Biggest Housing Boom in US History Has Just Begun - 18th Oct 19
British Pound Brexit Chaos GBP Trend Forecast - 18th Oct 19
Stocks Don’t Care About Trump Impeachment - 17th Oct 19
Currencies Show A Shift to Safety And Maturity – What Does It Mean? - 17th Oct 19
Stock Market Future Projected Cycles - 17th Oct 19
Weekly SPX & Gold Price Cycle Report - 17th Oct 19
What Makes United Markets Capital Different From Other Online Brokers? - 17th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis - 16th Oct 19
This Is Not a Money Printing Press - 16th Oct 19
Online Casino Operator LeoVegas is Optimistic about the Future - 16th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Elliott Wave Analysis Forecast - Video - 16th Oct 19
$100 Silver Has Come And Gone - 16th Oct 19
Stock Market Roll Over Risk to New highs in S&P 500 - 16th Oct 19
10 Best Trading Schools and Courses for Students - 16th Oct 19
Dow Stock Market Short-term Trend Analysis - 15th Oct 19
The Many Aligning Signals in Gold - 15th Oct 19
Market Action Suggests Downside in Precious Metals - 15th Oct 19
US Major Stock Market Indexes Retest Critical Price Channel Resistance - 15th Oct 19
“Baghad Jerome” Powell Denies the Fed Is Using Financial Crisis Tools - 15th Oct 19
British Pound GBP Trend Analysis - 14th Oct 19
A Guide to Financing Your Next Car - 14th Oct 19
America's Ruling Class - Underestimating Them & Overestimating Us - 14th Oct 19
Stock Market Range Bound - 14th Oct 19
Gold, Silver Bonds - Inflation in the Offing? - 14th Oct 19
East-West Trade War: Never Take a Knife to a Gunfight - 14th Oct 19
Consider Precious Metals for Insurance First, Profit Second... - 14th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Elliott Wave Analysis Forecast - 13th Oct 19
The Most Successful IPOs Have This One Thing in Common - 13th Oct 19
Precious Metals & Stock Market VIX Are Set To Launch Dramatically Higher - 13th Oct 19
Discovery Sport EGR Valve Gasket Problems - Land Rover Dealer Fix - 13th Oct 19
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle - Video - 12th Oct 19
Social Security Is Screwing Millennials - 12th Oct 19
Gold Gifts Traders With Another Rotation Below $1500 - 12th Oct 19
US Dollar Index Trend Analysis - 11th Oct 19
China Golden Week Sales Exceed Expectations - 11th Oct 19
Stock Market Short-term Consolidation Does Not change Secular Bullish Trend - 11th Oct 19
The Allure of Upswings in Silver Mining Stocks - 11th Oct 19
US Housing Market 2018-2019 and 2006-2007: Similarities & Differences - 11th Oct 19
Now Is the Time to Load Up on 5G Stocks - 11th Oct 19
Why the Law Can’t Protect Your Money - 11th Oct 19
Will Miami be the First U.S. Real Estate Bubble to Burst? - 11th Oct 19
How Online Casinos Maximise Profits - 11th Oct 19
3 Tips for Picking Junior Gold Stocks - 10th Oct 19
How Does Inflation Affect Exchange Rates? - 10th Oct 19
This Is the Best Time to Load Up on These 3 Value Stocks - 10th Oct 19
What Makes this Gold Market Rally Different From All Others - 10th Oct 19
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle - 9th Oct 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

Stocks Stealth Bull Market Touches Dow 11,000

News_Letter / Financial Markets 2010 Apr 13, 2010 - 08:22 PM GMT

By: NewsLetter

News_Letter The Market Oracle Newsletter
April 11th, 2010 Issue #21 Vol. 4


The Market Oracle Newsletter
April 11th, 2010            Issue #21 Vol. 4

Commodities Currencies Economics Housing Market Interest Rates Education Personal Finance Stocks / Financials Real Gems

Stocks Stealth Bull Market Touches Dow 11,000

Dear Reader

Whilst the blogosfear still asks the question whether this is a bear market rally or a new bull market, the stocks stealth bull market achieves a new milestone right at the end of the week by touching the Dow 11k target as indicated in last weeks brief update as the weeks most probable trend outcome.

Nothing has changed in the blogosFear as the SAME issues both fundamental and technical are laboriously put forward EVERY month for the past 12 months for reasons why the rally's end is always imminent, only succeeding in frightening all but the smart money from monetizing on one of the greatest bull runs in history -

1. Fundamentals, - Unsustainable debt fuelled economic stimulus that will soon evaporate.

The stimulus and debt are real issues, but instead of signaling DEFLATION they are signaling INFLATION with the primary driving force for economic activity being REFLATION of asset prices.

15 Mar 2009 - Stealth Bull Market Follows Stocks Bear Market Bottom at Dow 6,470

The markets move ahead of the economy, whilst I don't profess to know the EXACT reasons of why they will move AHEAD until that becomes apparent AFTER the market has already moved, however I do have some reasoning in that INFLATION, Zero Interest Rates (Forcing savers / financial institutions to take risks) Quantitative Easing (money printing), and HUGE Fiscal stimulus packages that are laying all of the ground work for the next bubble regardless of how bad things appear as any outcome that prevents another Great Depression will be seen as bullish! i.e. even a low growth high inflation stagflationary environment WILL be seen as a positive outcome against the present day data that points to a collapse of global demand on a scale not seen since the Great Depression. The governments HAVE learned the lessons from the Great Depression and WILL succeed in inflating the asset prices and ignite the next perhaps even bigger bubble, meanwhile the stealth bull market will continue which by the time everyone realizes what's going on stocks will already by up by perhaps more than 50% from the low.

2. Technicals - There is no investor buying because volume is not there during the rallies.

YES, Volume is NOT there on the rally's precisely BECAUSE we are in a stocks stealth bull market that is STILL only being bought by the smart money. In the analysis in my Inflation Mega-trend Ebook (Download now for FREE) I expect this trend to persist for MANY YEARS.

15 Mar 2009 - Stealth Bull Market Follows Stocks Bear Market Bottom at Dow 6,470

Now watch ! How this STEALTH bull market will consistently be recognised as just a bear market rally to sell into and NOT to accumulate into. All the way from 6,600 to 7,600 to 8,600 and even beyond, the move will be missed by most as consistently bearish rhetoric and data will ensure only the smart money accumulates, for the small investor has now become Conditioned to the Bear Market Rallies of 20% and subsequently plunges to fresh lows. Many, many months from now, with stocks up 30%, investors will then WAIT for THE BIG CORRECTION, THE RE-TEST to buy into the apparent BULL Market , Well these investors will still be waiting as stocks pass the 50% advance mark, AGAIN only those that will have profited are the hedge funds and fund investors (Smart Money) WHO HAVE BEEN ACCUMULATING , as I elaborate upon next.

The bottom line for investing is monetize on trends, not to get psychologically hooked by perma attitudes (bull or bear). The facts are SIMPLE in that the stealth bull market turned into an ACTUAL bull market at Dow 7,765. Everything else written since to suggest that this is a bear market rally who's end is always imminent is down to psychological blocks which is a manifestation of lack of actual trading experience.

Last In depth Analysis - 23 Mar 2010 - Stocks Stealth Bull Market Trend Forecast Into May 2010

The sum of existing analysis upto the end of January had concluded in the Dow targeting a trend during 2010 to above 12,000, targeting 12,500 by late 2010, to be preceded by a volatile sideways trend during the first half of the year.

As we approach the end of Q1 the trend is showing relative strength against this forecast, the key manifestation of this is that the stock market did NOT retest the February low as I was expecting to take place i.e. to generate a double bottom pattern. This coupled with current analysis (above) suggests we are going to get what cycle analysts would know as 'left translation' in the projected trend, which implies we get the rally to 12,000 far earlier i.e. during Q2, rather than Q3 to Q4. Which on face value also suggests a weaker trend later in the year, but more on that in May.

SELL SIGNAL COMING !

The above analysis continues to resolve towards a Major SELL SIGNAL by Mid May 2010 Dow £12k target, which will probably be just about the time when the perma-bears have thrown in the towel and gone long! How far the correction will run is not quantifiable at this point in time. But to ensure you stay several weeks if not months AHEAD of the curve subscribe to my always FREE Newsletter!

The Real Secret of Successful Trading?

Not Technical Analysis, Not the latest grand puba theory but Money Management and Practice of Entering and Existing REAL positions, the actual mechanism for which is NOT important, rather it SHOULD be SIMPLE. Forecasting requires a LOT of analysis, plenty of layers to peel away, Trading requires virtually NONE as the trends are self evident in the breakdown of ones portfolio that is subject to money management rules where the bulk of your open positions will be in the RIGHT direction. Most traders go from analysis to positions, in actual fact it should be the other way around - From open positions TO analysis (if you need to).

I will cover the "real secrets of successful trading" in future articles and eventually in detail in a book, (at least a year away).

UK General Election, Most Voters Need Not Bother to Vote

The Politicians have entered into a frenzy of activity which is illustrated by the high frequency of bare faced lies that spout from every orifice. One good development from the mainstream TV news channels are the fact and reality checks that attempt analyse the truth behind the most repeated lies of the day.

Voting is a waste of time for most of the British electorate as the election outcome will be decided in the marginal constituencies which at 120 are less than 20% of the 650 seats, which is why the parties are deploying resources into these constituencies, promising new health centres and increased local services whilst the other 80% of the population in non marginal constituencies have to make do with what's termed as the "postcode lottery" garbage third world level health and public services as the sitting jobs for life MP's only appear for the occasional photo opportunity to include in their next leaflet knowing full well that mainly gullible labour and conservative voters in the constituencies will turn out in their thousands to vote them back in regardless of performance.

Britain needs a political revolution that turns EVERY constituency into a marginal constituency, that is the only way EVERY MP will pay any attention to their constituents.

Comments and Source here : http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article18559.html

Your index trading analyst.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-10 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved

Featured Analysis of the Week

Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of the Week :

1. Gold, Time to Get Excited Again?

By: Merv_Burak

Is it time to get all excited again?  Not yet.  Gold has had a couple of good days but has yet not breached any major resistance levels so the move may only be temporary within a basic lateral trend.  Let’s wait for better validation of the up move.

Read Article

2. The Global Economic Crisis: Riots, Rebellion and Revolution

By: Andrew_G_Marshall

As nations of the world are thrown into a debt crisis, the likes of which have never been seen before, harsh fiscal ‘austerity’ measures will be undertaken in a flawed attempt to service the debts. The result will be the elimination of the middle class. When the middle class is absorbed into the labour class – the lower class – and lose their social, political, and economic foundations, they will riot, rebel, and revolt.

Read Article

3. Is This a Economic Recovery?

By: John_Mauldin

Last week I wrote a letter to my kids trying to explain what Greece meant to them. Reader Ken V wrote: "Great letter, John. Now you should write one for the adults who are retired and don't have the long future your kids do. If the US becomes Greece, things won't recover in time for much of the rest of my life to be more than one grim, dreary period. What is your investment advice for those with roughly a 10-year horizon, not 30-40-50 years?"

Read Article

The U.S. Econonomies Future

4. Protect Your Wealth From Exploding Debt as States Implode

By: Sean_Brodrick

The world is breathing a sigh of relief now that the financial crisis in Greece is “over.” Yeah, right. Greece’s financial misdeeds — the country has racked up a lot of debts it can’t pay — will probably come back to haunt Europe, and soon.

Read Article

5. Economic Recovery Follows Stealth Stocks Bull Market, BlogosFear Cry's Manipulated Markets

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The economic recovery continues to manifest itself in the real world as this week both UK GDP was revised higher to 0.4% for Q4 2009 and Fridays U.S. Jobs reported 162k of new Jobs added to the economy, the economic recovery has long since been led by the stocks stealth bull market that has risen by more than 70% since the March 2009 low.

Read Article

6. Metals Market Manipulation Update: Are The Metals markets Rigged? Do Fish Swim

By: Jim_Richter

During the time I have been writing this newsletter, I have frequently mentioned the blatant manipulation of the gold and silver markets. For background on this issue, please see my article in the May, 2009, issue. The manipulation of gold has been accomplished primarily by central banks selling or leasing gold into the markets so as to artificially depress the prices. The bullion banks (e.g., JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and others) have also helped suppress the prices of gold and silver by selling them short on the commodities exchanges.

Read Article

The Most Important Report of 2010

7. Critical Juncture for U.S. Housing Market, Gold

By: Clif_Droke

Let's turn our attention to real estate for a minute. The thorn in the economic recovery's side, after all, has been the mortgage market. Investors are worried that with so many mortgage holders under water, the hoped for economic reversal has no chance to stick. Debt relief has been a paramount concern since the credit crisis began, and rightfully so. Yet it has been elusive. Lenders have stubbornly held off in offering anything in the way of substantial relief to the legions of debtors who could use a break.

Read Article

8. The Global Bubble Has Reflated

By: Mike_Stathis

Back in the Spring of 2009, the World Bank forecast that the global economy would contract by 1.7% that year; the first global contraction since the Great Depression (yet another clear indicator we are in a depression).

Read Article

Subscription

You're receiving this Email because you've registered with our website.

How to Subscribe

Click here to register and get our FREE Newsletter

To access the Newsletter archive this link

Forward a Message to Someone [FORWARD]

To update your preferences [PREFERENCES]

How to Unsubscribe - [UNSUBSCRIBE]

About: The Market Oracle Newsletter

The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis Newsletter and online publication.
(c) 2005-2010 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - The Market Oracle asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team. Any and all information provided within this newsletter is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided in this newsletter. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. ( Market Oracle Ltd , Registered in England and Wales, Company no 6387055. Registered office: 226 Darnall Road, Sheffield S9 5AN , UK )

Terms of Use | Privacy Policy

Copyright 2010 MarketOracle.co.uk

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules